“Foresight does not allow us to predict the

future. It helps us explore possibilities for what

might lie ahead, understand and express our

biases and perceptions about the future, and

provides outlets to articulate the preferred

values, behaviors, and structures we can and

must create here and now to build the future

we want.”

“In light of the challenges and

opportunities that lie ahead, Tonga must

find ways of moving from a Small Island

Vulnerability perspective to a ‘Big Ocean

Prosperity’ future. If Tonga is going to

navigate this transition, it must prepare

now for the challenges and opportunities

of tomorrow, which requires deliberate

and thoughtful action today.”

Honorable Prime Minister, Lord Tu‘ivakano

Kingdom of Tonga

2

Report

1. Introduction

2. Public Event

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Agenda

2.3 Session Overviews

2.4 Media coverage

3. Cabinet Retreat

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Session Overview

4. SIDS Conference Side Event

3

2014 TongaforesightXchange

Introduction

The Tonga foresightXchange was a

joint venture between the UNDPʻs

Global Centre for Public Service

Excellence and the Government of

Tonga.

All events were designed in

collaboration with the Hawaii

Research Center for Futures Studies

and the Centre for Postnormal Policy

and Futures Studies.

The 2014 Tonga foresightXchange

consisted of three events:1) a public futures envisioning workshop

held on 19 August 2014;

2) private foresight retreat for the

Government of Tonga held on

22 August 2014; and

3) a side event at the Third United Nations

Small Island Developing States

conference on 1 September 2014.

4

foresightXchange

25

Public Event – 19 August 2014 - Nuku’alofa, Tonga

Public Event19 August 2014

Over 100 people participated in the 2014

Tonga foresightXchange. This public event

utilized a range of foresight methods to

engender dialogue and generate insights for

Tonga’s next Strategic Development Plan

2015-2018. Participants were asked to

imagine Tonga’s transition from a “Small

Island Vulnerability” to a “Big Ocean

Prosperity” future.

To envision this change, participants used

the foresight eXplorer to imagine their

preferred values, behaviors, and structures

for Tonga’s future (see page 10 for details).

After using the foresight eXplorer,

participants created and shared “Voices from

Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future.” Local

artists attended the event and created pieces

based on what they heard from participants

throughout the day. 5

Public Event - Agenda

9:00am – Official Opening

Opening prayer: Rev. Tu’inauvai ’Asaeli

Welcoming remarks: Mr. ‘Aholotu Palu, Acting Chief Secretary

& Secretary to Cabinet

Special remarks: Mr. Peter van de Pol, Advisor, UNDP

Keynote address: Honorable Prime Minister, Lord Tu’ivakano

Vote of thanks: Mr. Va’inga Tone, Secretary of Foreign Affairs

and Trade

10:30am – Intro to Strategic Foresight & Futures Literacy

Participants will learn the core concepts of strategic foresight

and futures literacy placed in the context of local regional and

global trends and emerging issues impacting Tonga’s future.

6

11:00am – What is Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity future?

Participants will use the foresight eXplorer to model their

preferred values, behaviors, and structures for Tonga’s future.

2:30pm – Voices from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity

Future

Participants will create characters to give voice to Tonga’s

future. These characters will have a conversation with voices

from the present to understand how Tonga made the transition

from “Small Island Vulnerability” to “Big Ocean Prosperity.”

4:00pm – Group reports and artist presentations

5:00pm – Closing remarks

John A. Sweeney, Deputy Director, Centre for Postnormal Policy

and Futures Studies

Lord Fakafanua, Speaker of the Tongan Legislative Assembly

Session Overview Introduction to Strategic Foresight

and Futures Literacy

As part of the session introducing strategic

foresight and futures literacy, participants were

asked to give three adjectives that describe the

future. Participants were not given a particular

time horizon for this exercise, and a word cloud

was generated from their responses and

displayed at the end of the event. The word

cloud (see next page) makes repeated words

appear larger.

Another introductory exercise asked

participants to identify which metaphor best

expressed their sense of the future. As is often

the case, most chose “sailing on the ocean,”

which signals an openness to uncertainty—one

of the key concepts of futures literacy.

Additionally, participants were given examples

of technological, social, and environmental

changes from a futures’ perspective.

8

9

Session overviewWhat is Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future?

The foresight eXplorer is a collaborative gaming system that

helped participants imagine their preferred values, behaviors,

and structures for Tonga’s future. Participants could either

select pre-defined cards or enter their own content in each

category. Many participants chose to create content,

especially values, in Tongan. After connecting values (beliefs),

behaviors (actions), and structures (institutions and systems),

the foresight eXplorer asked participants to envision both

challenges and opportunities for Tonga’s future.

10

Additionally, participants were asked to identify wild

cards, or high-impact events that might seem unlikely,

and then build off these events using additional values,

behaviors, and structures cards. Each group was given

basic instructions on how to use the foresight eXplorer in

order to encourage creativity during the foresight

eXplorer’s first-ever prototyping session.

11

Seven diverse groups

composed of students,

teachers, civic leaders,

public servants, and

community members

created scenarios for

Tonga’s “Big Ocean

Prosperity” Future using

the foresight eXplorer.

Commonly repeated

values included:

family, tradition, culture,

integrity, freedom, and

democracy.

Each group worked at their own

pace during the hour and a half

session, and facilitators

emphasized the first scenario

building stage: values, behaviors,

and structures.

All of the seven groups placed

both the challenges and

opportunities, but only three

groups created and placed wild

cards.

fatu'anga 'oe sosaieti

'ulungaanga

sino pe fa'unga

fakasosaieti

fakafe'atungia

faingamalie

peau tupukoso

12

Each group was given a few minutes to

provide a brief overview of their scenario,

and each group emphasized different

aspects of the scenario building process.

13

Report backSnapshot

Group #4 focused the values of democracy, health, tradition, integrity,

honesty, prosperity, family, religion and decolonization. Around these

values, they placed the following behaviors: observe holy days, kava

ceremony, sports & exercise, following laws, child rearing, job creation, gift-

giving, policy making, inter-island commerce.

Around these behaviors, they placed the following structures: education,

healthcare, parliament, military, government ministry, Internet and telecom,

Executive branch, land tenure, tourism, community council, monarchy,

judiciary, and education. Around these structures, they placed the following

challenges: sea-level rise inequality, cultural change, extreme weather,

energy dependent, corruption, economic downturn, aging infrastructure,

resource scarcity, brain drain / migration.

Around these challenges, they placed the following opportunities: self

sufficiency, prosperity, shifting gender roles, security, equality, research,

innovation, work & life. Group #4 also came up with the following wild

cards: civil war, epidemic, strike, and tsunami.

14

15

Session overviewVoices from Tonga’s

Big Ocean Prosperity Future

Groups were provided with a worksheet and general

instructions on how to develop “Voices from Tonga’s

Big Ocean Prosperity Future” based on the scenarios

they created using the foresight eXplorer. In creating

a perspective from which to give more depth to their

preferred scenario for Tonga’s future, participants

were asked to imagine specific details about a day in

the life of someone living in their scenario for Tonga’s

Big Ocean Prosperity future.

Additionally, they were asked to give insights into how

this person defined prosperity and, perhaps most

importantly, overcame the challenges and took

advantage of the opportunities they imagined. The

stories developed by participants varied widely, and

some groups focused more on the circumstances of

the scenario rather than an individual’s experience.

16

“Meleana’s 100th Birthday”A Voice from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future

Meleana shared her group’s voice from Tonga’s Big

Ocean Prosperity future. Actually, it was her own.

Meleana told the story of celebrating her 100th birthday

in Tonga’s future.

She explained looking out from her veranda upon the

rooftops of Old Nuku’alofa as the old city was overcome

by sea-level rise. While she is tired, Meleana is also

strong and healthy. After finishing church, she is excited

to see her 14 children and 55 grandchildren and to

celebrate her special day among family and friends.

For Meleana, prosperity is more than just financial

security; her family, health, and happiness are what

gives her a sense of prosperity in Tonga’s Big Ocean

Prosperity future, and her group clearly emphasized

both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

17

Report backSnapshot

18

Session overviewArtistic Imaginings of Tonga’s Futures

In the spirit of capturing the imaginative aspect of the

foresightXchange, local artists were commissioned to

craft pieces based on their perspective. Rather than just

having them visualizing the scenarios, the artists had the

creative license and produce pieces based on their point

of view.

“The woman with her back turned represents

Tonga. Her back is the past. Her face appears

small, that is our view to the future; it appears

blurry, the future appears that way, based on the

government’s plans.

The olive leaves symbolises living in peace and the

steps represents the vision for the country’s future.

The triangle and the circle which are clothed by the

mat was taken from the idea of the family tree,

which represents both male and female who are

responsible for the peaceful co-existence of the

family.

The woman’s attire represents culture and tradition,

which includes religion, education and also

democracy, which is how the country is run at

present.

If these things continue to operate in harmony,

there will be development and the visions for

Tonga’s future will be realised."

19

Weaving a Good FutureTaniela Petelo (2014)

“Praying should always be number one in

everything and should not be replaced by anything.

Churches should work closely with, and they

should have a representative to, the parliament.

Food consumption should change so that we

become healthier and live for longer. Government

departments should encourage growing of fruits

and vegetables. Ministry of Health should

encourage daily exercises with TV and radio

promotions.

The designs portrayed represents the hope that

the Tongan culture will be preserved.

We should work hand in hand with other faiths for

a peaceful Tonga."

It’s Raining CrossesSione Moala (2014)

20

21

“This family aims to have a future that results in their

progress. This will be based on the home and the

family. The parents will still be obligated to teach their

children and they are responsible for the discipline of

their children and should encourage and support the

development of their talents in education, sport and

any other past time that they may have but which is

beneficial and important for the future.

If supported properly from home, they will be able to

receive opportunities to continue on overseas for

increased better opportunities to study or play sports

so that they can realize their goals. They can then

share the knowledge, skills and culture that they have

received overseas.

They will use this knowledge to build and create new

things for our country which will make it faster for us to

reach overseas and learn about different cultures all

over the World.

We will be able to collect knowledge and wisdom so

that our relationships with those foreign countries will

be strengthened. This will have to start with the parents

at home. And purchases by the roadside."

Untitled

22

“The horse represents minimising the pollution of

our environment and minimising expenditure on

benzene and diesel.

The woman symbolises democracy and how they

can now access the same privileges and benefits

that men have, thus removing the barriers

because the Church is Jesus Christ and we

should have this become true.

My picture shows that there will be a lot of work

opportunities to employ the people of our small

country."

Untitled

23

The tree and the people in it represents an extended family. The

tribal pattern (Kupesi) on the roots represents the Tongan identity. I

left the right side of the painting blank because that is what I think

of the future of Tonga. We can be anything we want. We have a lot

of options of how we want Tonga to be.

If we wish for Tonga to achieve a good future, we will have to work

for it. However, preparing for the future will have to start at home.

That is why I chose the family, because they are the basis for well-

being. If the home functions well, education and religion will also

continue to function well, which in turn will start the progress of

other things. For instance, on the issue of high school fights, we

hope that one day students will live together in harmony and peace.

On the right side, there is the head of a robot. It shows us the

transformations at present to the future and the development of

technology. The scale at the bottom represents the Government;

the cross on the side represents religion. Below that there is a light

bulb symbolising education, which will be a beacon of light for the

future generations. Those small red drawings at the bottom are the

fruits of the family tree.

Beside the light bulb there is a shadow from the back, one of the

tree’s branches is a barcode, the barcode represents what we will

attain in the future because of trade. There will be a time when we

will no longer use cash and cards but barcodes and chips for the

purchasing of goods. The reason it is a shadow still is because we

have not reached that stage, but they are just aspirations for the

future.

Roots of DevelopmentTaniela Petelo (2014)

24

“The noble paramount parents of Tonga are the church and state.

On the left is the mother – or the church – with the obligation to

establish the flag of morale (which is the Christian morale), peace

and the spirit of unification in the society. On the right is the father –

or the state – who governs and takes care of the economy.

The constitution was drawn from Godly facts with the hope that

they will not be separated from the impact of development. Inside is

a Tongan who wears a sisi lousi, which indicates our culture. The

Tongan’s identity is formed while being raised at home, but

includes the influence of other sectors of society on the upbringing.

The black cloak at the back is the church, which is a refuge and

protector. On it are new designs which is the outcome of the

combination of ideas with our relatives abroad. Slow change is

what we prefer and this applies also to our language, which is

displayed by the new Tongan words. The fish represents our export

of live ocean organisms abroad like pearl and sea cucumber.

Export can be sustainable if we are to utilise it reasonably today. It

is possible to find oil in the ocean floor in the future with improved

research equipment.

I have drawn the fish meat as a machine which represents the idea

of high technology, which brings the light of education and new

innovations that will ease the way forward. At the top is a light

representing education, which is required for sharp increase in

research and knowledge for new ideas and trading with overseas

markets."

Island EthicsTevita Latu (2014)

Public Have Their Say

August 20, 2014

http://www.tongadailynews.to/?p=7976

Tongans Think About the Future

August 19, 2014

http://matangitonga.to/2014/08/19/tonga

ns-think-about-future

26

Media Coverage Tonga foresightXchange Public Event

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEBee4kPNus

TV Tonga interview with

John Sweeney

foresightXchange

Cabinet Retreat – 22 August 2014 - Nuku’alofa, Tonga 29

On Friday, August 22, 2014, Government of Tonga

Cabinet Ministers and CEOs participated in a private

foresight retreat to hear the results from the 19

August public event and learn more about strategic

foresight and how it can be used to enhance public

service.

A brief overview of strategic foresight was given

along with details on how Singapore has

implemented foresight across its public service.

27

Cabinet Retreat22 August 2014

The presentation of the results from the public event as well

as the introduction to strategic foresight and public service

was done in both English and Tongan, and participants

asked questions in both languages. A lively discussion

followed both presentations.

Honorable Prime Minister, Lord Tu’ivakano closed the event

with remarks stressing how a foresight approach can

enhance policy and planning processes, but, as he noted,

foresight tools and methods must be contextualized and

localized for Tonga.

28

On 1 September 2014, a side event was held at

the Third United Nations Conference on Small

Island Developing States in Apia, Samoa.

This event was hosted by the Government of

Tonga to highlight how a foresight approach can

enhance policy and planning frameworks. It was

supported by the UNDP Global Centre for Public

Service Excellence.

Speakers at the event included:• Lord Tu’ivakano, Honorable Prime Minister

• Masagos Zulkifli, Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs

and Home Affairs, Singapore

• Helen Clark, UNDP Administrator

• Dr. Jim Dator, Emeritus Director, Hawaii Research Center for

Futures Studies30

“If foresight is truly going to benefit Tonga – and I believe it will –

then it must enhance our values, challenge us to imagine what

values we will need in the future, and help us take the necessary

steps to work towards our preferred future while always being

mindful of the unexpected.”

“It is quite clear to me that

collaborative foresight gives birth to

new conversations about our

shared future. It empowers

participants to not only “feel” but

also “be” more invested in the

policy planning process. We are

committed to using foresight to

develop more insights, which can

be translated into more prudent

and effective action, and the Tonga

foresightXchange demonstrated

our commitment to this approach."

- Lord Tu’ivakano, Honorable

Prime Minister

Building Resilience in SIDS through ForesightSpeeches

31

Full speech: https://undp.unteamworks.org/node/458553

“Adding foresight to the mix, along with traditional planning

approaches, promises to make strategies, policies and plans less

vulnerable to complexity and emergent risks. It can open the eyes of

strategists and planners to opportunities that are currently

overlooked or ignored, since our existing incentive structures reward

plan implementation with limited flexibility.”

“Our topic today – foresight –

has been picked up as one of

four key ingredients to public

service excellence. What we

are really talking about is the

future in plural: the capacity to

envisage the various

alternative futures; to consider

them, select the preferred

future and to pursue it, without

losing sight of opportunities

and risks along the way.”

- Helen Clark, UNDP

Administrator

32

Full speech: http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/s

peeches/2014/09/01/helen-clark-speech-at-building-

resilience-in-sids-through-foresight-side-event-at-un-

conference-on-small-island-developing-states/

Building Resilience in SIDS through ForesightSpeeches

“The International Year of the SIDS

and the third SIDS Conference

offer us both a challenge and an

opportunity. This occasion allows

us to take stock of our challenges,

review our imaginings of the future,

and develop viable options that will

allow us to develop in a

sustainable manner. We welcome

the UNDP and its role in

developing foresight tools for the

use of SIDS. We hope that

Tonga’s experience in this area

can be shared with the wider SIDS

membership.”

- Masagos Zulkifli, Senior Minister

of State for Foreign Affairs and

Home Affairs, Singapore

Singapore has diffused foresight throughout all of its ministries

and has undertaken large-scale foresight projects with

extensive community outreach drive. Singapore is considered

by many to be the world’s leading government for foresight in

public service.

33

Full speech: http://www.mfa.gov.sg/content/mfa/media_centre/press_room/pr/201

4/201409/press_20140901_1.html

Building Resilience in SIDS through ForesightSpeeches

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