2015 afire foreign investment survey

7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey

1/20


2/20

Riskofprematureobsolescence

ue

o

emograp can

ec no og ca

c anges

PercentofMembers'Votes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mid/HiRiseApartments

CBDOffice

GardenApartments

RegionalMalls

Hotel

StripRetail

Centers

SuburbanOffice

LowR s Mo erateR s H g R s


3/20

Ex ectedchan es

in

ca

rates

b

ear

end

2015


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Office

Warehouse

Retail

Hotel

Multifamily

Muc Lower S g t yLower NoC ange S g t yH g er Muc H g er


4/20

WhenChinamaybecomethelargestsource

o

rea

es a ecap a

nves men


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

When,ifever,doyouanticipatethatChinawillbecomethe

argestsourceo rea estatecap ta nvestment nto rea

estate?

or or eyon o e y o appen


5/20

AreChinesecapitalinflowscyclical

orapermanen

ma or

cap a

source


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Do

you

think

the

recent

surge

in

investment

from

China

is

morelikelyashorttermsurgeorcyclicalinflow,aswehave

seen rommanyot ercountr es nt epast,ort e eg nn ng

ofalongperiodofhighinvestmentvolumesfromChinainto

theUSA?

or ermor yc ca n ow ong erm ermanen n ow o p n on


6/20

Ex ectedfirst

increase

in

interest

rates


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Whendo ouex ectthe

firstincreaseininterestrates?

or eyon


7/20

Chan esin

ers ective

on

USA

real

estate

markets

80%

60%

70%

otes

40%

50%

fMembers'

20%

30%

Percent

0%

MorePessimistic AbouttheSame MoreOptimistic


8/20

Countryprovidingthemoststableandsecure

rea

es a e

nves men s

70%

50%

60%

otes

30%

40%

fMembers'

10%

20%

Percent

0%

USA Germany UK Canada Switzerland


9/20

Countryprovidingthebestopportunity

orcap a

apprec a on

70%

50%

60%

otes

30%

40%

fM

embers'

10%

20%

Percent

0%

USA Spain UK China Brazil Mexico Netherlands


10/20

Rankin

of

lobalcities

for

real

estate

investment

35%

25%

30%

ore

15%

20%

nto

fTotalSc

5%

10%Perc

0%

NewYork London San

Francisco

Tokyo Madrid Houston Berlin Sydney Shanghai

Theresponseswerescoredwith3pointstoeachrespondentsfirstchoice,2

points

to

second

choice,

and

1

point

to

third

choice.


11/20

Rankin

ofUSA

cities

for

real

estate

investment

40%

30%

35%

ore

20%

25%

nto

fTotalSc

5%

10%Pere

0%

NewYork San

Francisco

Houston LosAngeles Washington

DC

Atlanta Boston Chicago Seattle


points

to

second

choice,

and

1

point

to

third

choice.


12/20

Rankin

ofUSA

ro ert

t es

b

ear

4.5

3.5

4.0

2.0

2.5

.

ean

Score

1.0

1.5

0.0

0.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


points

to

second

choice,

and

so

on

down

to

1

point

to

the

fifth

choice.

u am y e a o e ce n us r a


13/20

Rankin

ofUSA

ro ert

t es

b

ro ert

t e

4.5

3.5

4.0

2.0

2.5

.

ean

Score

1.0

1.5

0.0

0.5

Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial


points

to

second

choice,

and

so

on

down

to

1

point

to

the

fifth

choice.


14/20

Meanreal

estate

ortfolio

sizes

$25

$20

$15

Billions

19.6$10US

7.3

$0

5

Global USA


15/20

Realestate

ortfolio

eo ra hic

distribution

PercentofMembers'Portfolios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

USA

Europe

ana a

AsiaPacific

LatinAmerica

oca on oca on < oca on o oca on


16/20

Plannedchan es

to

the

size

of

ortfolios


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

USA

LatinAmerica

Europe

Canada

AsiaPacific

Major Modest Maintainor Modest MajorNet

e ncrease ncrease e nves ecrease ecrease


17/20

Allocationof

ortfolios

b

investment

strate

or

st le

PercentofMembers'Portfolios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Core

ValueAdd

Opportunistic

Other

oca on oca on < oca on o oca on


18/20

Plannedchan es

to

investment

strate

or

st le


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Core

ValueAdd

MajorNet Modest Maintainor Modest MajorNet

ncrease ncrease e nves ecrease ecrease


19/20

Rankingofcountriesforrealestateacquisitions:

execu ons

an

p ans

PercentofTotalScore

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

USA

Germany

France

Canada

Japan

Australia

China


points

to

second

choice,

and

1

point

for

the

third

choice.

xecu ons ans


20/20

Rankingofemergingcountriesconsidered

orrea

es a e

acqu s ons

PercentofTotalVote

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Brazil

China

Mexico

Chile

Poland

Colombia

India

CzechRepublic

2013Plans 2014Plans 2015Plans

Each

member

was

allowed

to

mention

up

to

6

countries.

All

mentions

are

counted

equally

to

add

up

to

the

score

of

the

country.

rom survey rom survey romcurren survey

2015 afire foreign investment survey

Documents