2016 afire foreign investment survey 2016 afire foreign
TRANSCRIPT
2016 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey2016 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
Changes in perspective on USA real estate marketsg p p
100%
70%
80%
90%
Votes
40%
50%
60%
of M
embe
rs' V
20%
30%
40%
Percen
t o
‐
10%
More Pessimistic About the Same More Optimistic
2014 20152014 2015
Likelihood of events that pose the greatest risk of t i i d ttriggering a downturn
Property types most affected byi i i t t tan increase in interest rates
4.0
3.0
3.5
2.0
2.5
an Score
1.0
1.5
Mea
0.0
0.5
The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
Office Retail Multifamily Hotel Warehouse
Expected changes in cap rates by year‐end 2016p g p y y
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Office
Retail
M lti F ilMulti‐Family
Warehouse
Hotel
Much Lower Slightly Lower No Change Slightly Higher Much HigherMuch Lower Slightly Lower No Change Slightly Higher Much Higher
Country providing the most stable and securel t t i t treal estate investments
70%
50%
60%
Votes
30%
40%
of M
embe
rs' V
10%
20%
Percen
t o
0%USA Germany UK Canada Australia Netherlands
2011 2012 2013 2014 20152011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Country providing the best opportunity f it l i tifor capital appreciation
60%
50%
Votes
30%
40%
of M
embe
rs' V
10%
20%
Percen
t o
0%USA Brazil Spain Ireland UK Netherlands China India
2011 2012 2013 2014 20152011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ranking of global cities for real estate investmentg g
30%
20%
25%
l Score
10%
15%
ercent of Total
‐
5%
Pe
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ranking of USA cities for real estate investmentg
40%
25%
30%
35%
l Score
15%
20%
erecnt of Total
0%
5%
10%Pe
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ranking of USA property types, by yearg p p y yp , y y
4.50
3 00
3.50
4.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
Mea
n Score
1.00
1.50
M
0.00
0.50
20152014201320122011
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
Ranking of USA property types, by property typeg p p y yp , y p p y yp
4.5
3 0
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
Mea
n Score
1.0
1.5
M
0.0
0.5
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mean real estate portfolio sizesp
$25
$20
$15
$ Billion
s
19.1
$
$10US$
7.8
$0
$5
Global USA
Real estate portfolio geographic distributionp g g p
Percent of Members' Portfolios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
USA
Europe
C dCanada
Asia Pacific
Latin America
>75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation>75% Allocation 25% ‐ 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation
Planned changes to the size of portfoliosg p
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
USA
Europe
Canada
Asia Pacific
Latin America
MajorNet Increase
ModestIncrease
Maintain orRein est
ModestDecrease
Major NetDecreaseNet Increase Increase Reinvest Decrease Decrease
Allocation of portfolios by investment strategy or stylep y gy y
Percent of Members' Portfolios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Core
V l AddValue Add
Opportunistic
>75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation>75% Allocation 25% ‐ 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation
Planned changes to investment strategy or styleg gy y
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Core
Value Add
OpportunisticOpportunistic
MajorNet Increase
ModestIncrease
Maintain orRein est
ModestDecrease
Major NetDecreaseNet Increase Increase Reinvest Decrease Decrease
Ranking of countries for real estate acquisitions:2015 ti d 2016 l2015 executions and 2016 plans
Percent of Total Score0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%
USA
UK
Germany
C dCanada
France
AustraliaAustralia
China
2015 Acqusitions 2016 Plans
The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point for the third choice.
2015 Acqusitions 2016 Plans
Ranking of emerging countries considered f l t t i itifor real estate acquisitions
Percent of Total Vote0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Brazil
China
Chile
Mexico
India
Peru
Colombia
Malaysia
2014 Plans (from 2013 s r e )
2015 Plans (from 2014 s r e )
2016 Plans (from c rrent s r e )
Each member was allowed to mention up to 6 countries. All mentions are counted equally to add up to the score of the country.
(from 2013 survey) (from 2014 survey) (from current survey)