2015 cotati: local economic profile€¦ · merce is pleased to present the 2015 cotati local...
TRANSCRIPT
2015 Cotati: 2015Local Economic Profile
S O N O M AC O U N T Y
Table of Contents
1. Letter and Highlights
Population and Demographics
2. Population and Ethnicity Projection
3. Household and Income Projection
4. Employment
5. Residential Real Estate
6. Real Estate and Construction
7. Consumer Spending and Taxable Sales
8. Education
Cost Comparison Chart9.
10. City Data Snapshot
11. Methodology and Sources
12. Sponsors
Cotati: Local Economic Profile
The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment Board (WIB), the City of Cotati, and the Cotati Chamber of Com-merce is pleased to present the 2015 Cotati Local Economic Profile .
Highlights from this Local Economic Profile include:
■ Cotati’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 6.1% in July 2014, higher than Sonoma County (5.8%) and lower than California (7.8%) and the nation (6.2%) for the same month.
■The population of Cotati in 2014 was 7,318, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, it is expected to rise 2.5% to 7,504 by 2019.
■ Between 2000 and 2014, the median household income in Cotati grew by 9.48% to $58,765. Looking into 2019, this growth is expected to continue with median income rising to $66,701, an increase of around 13.5% from 2014.
■ The number of houses sold in Rohnert Park/Cotati has decreased slightly with sales down by 94 for a total of 491, a 16% loss over the past year.
■ This year we have added a special cost comparison chart, showing the difference of living and the cost of doing business between Sonoma County and the East Bay .
While every effort was made to ensure this report contained up-to-date information, certain data was unavailable at the time this report was released; thus, some figures may reflect years previous to 2014.
Thank you for your interest in the Economic Development Board’s research. For additional information, questions, comments, or suggestions please contact us at (707) 565-7170 or visit www.sonomaedb.org. For other city-specific questions, please visit www.ci.cotati.ca.us and/or www.cotati.org.
Pamela Chanter Ben StoneChair Executive DirectorEconomic Development Board Economic Development Board
Board of DirectorsPamela Chanter, Chair Joe Orlando, Vice Chair Libby Harvey FitzGerald
Michael Nicholls Linda Kachiu Melanie BagbyMichael Tomasini Marcos Suarez John Webley
©2014 Sonoma County Economic Development Board. The Economic Development Board (EDB) believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by the EDB, its members or affiliates. This publication can be made available in alternative formats such as Braille, large print, audiotape, or computer disk. Please direct requests to (707) 565-7170 and allow 72 hours for your request to be processed. This report was prepared by Jordan Nagy.
www.sonomaedb.org
2
Population & Demographics
The population of Cotati in 2014 was 7,318, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, it is expected to rise about 2.5% to 7,504 by 2019. This is greater than the projected population increase of 3.3% for Sonoma County over the same period. From 2000 to 2014, Cotati’s population grew 4%.
In 2014, in the population of those 25 and older, 26% of residents had obtained a High School Diploma. This is higher than Sonoma County in the same year at 20.1% of residents obtaining the same. Within the category of Some College, this consists of individuals who have taken college courses but who have never received their degree. In 2014, about 15% of residents had obtained a Bachelor’s Degree and around 7% had received a Graduate or Professional Degree.
A new trend we see moving into 2019 is the increase in the Hispanic population in Cotati. Between 2010 and 2019 there is predicted to be a 5.2% increase. Compared to Sonoma County, there will be a 4.7% increase overall in Hispanic population.
2000 2010 20192014
Total Population,Cotati
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Thou
sand
s of
Res
iden
ts
2014 Population 25+ by Educational Attainment Cotati
29%
23%18%
9%
8%
8%5%
HS Graduate/GED
Some College
Bachelor’s DegreeLess than 9th Grade
High School, No Diploma
Associate Degree
Graduate/Professional Degree
0%
85%
White Hispanic Some Other RaceAlone
American IndianAsian African American
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Cotati Population byRace/Ethnicity
2010
2014
2019
PPopulaopulation & Demotion & Demoggrraaphicsphics
www.sonomaedb.org
3
The population by age in Cotati in 2014 and 2019 distrib-uted widely, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, the 65 and older population is expected to increase the greatest amount by 2019. This is creating a decrease in individuals 45-64 between 2014 and 2019.
Between 2000 and 2014, the median household income in Cotati grew by 9.48% to $58,765. Looking into 2019, this growth is expected to continue with median income rising to $66,701, an increase of around 13.5% from 2014.
As income in Cotati rose between 2000 and 2014, the percentage of households earning less than $35,000 was increased by 0.14 percentage points. The fastest growing income range was $100,000-$149,999, with the proportion increasing 9.36 percentage points. This was followed by gains in the $150,000-$199,999 range.
A trend that remains consistent into 2019 is the shrinking percentage of households earning less than $35,000. The proportion of Cotati in this range will decrease by 5.7 percentage points from 2014 to 2019. This trend, coupled with the increasing proportion of Cotati earning over $100,000, will result in further concentration of households in higher-income tiers.
Population by Age,Cotati
0%
30%
0-4 5-9 10-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Age
Per
cent
of P
opul
atio
n
10%
20%
2014
2019
2000 2011 20192014
Median Household Income,Cotati
Thou
sand
s of
Dol
lars
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Source all: U.S. Census Bureau 2000, 2010; ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)
Households by Income, Cotati
2019
20142000
$200
,000+
$150
,000-$
199,9
99
$100
,000-$
149,9
99
$75,0
00-$9
9,999
$50,0
00-$7
4,999
$35,0
00-$4
9,999
$25,0
00-$3
4,999
$15,0
00-$2
4,999
<$15
,000
Per
cent
age
of H
ouse
hold
s
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Employment
www.sonomaedb.org
4
Cotati’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 6.1% in July 2014, higher than Sonoma County (5.8%) for the same month. Compared to July of the previous year, Cloverdale’s unemployment rate is down 1.4 points from 7.5%. Unemployment remains significantly higher in Cotati compared to its five year low of 5.2% in February of 2008. Cotati’s unemployment rate is below both the state (7.8%), and the nation (6.2%).
Total employment in Cotati was 3,800 in July 2014, which is up 2.6% from a year earlier. Although it is following an increasing trend, Cotati’s total employment remains down by about 100 jobs since reaching its new high in May 2014.
The total number of business establishments in 2014 in Cloverdale is 692. Sonoma County, including all unincorpo-rated cities, has 43,055 business establishments.
About 41% of Cotati’s employed population is in the category of Services, which includes education, health care, tourism and legal services. The second largest sector is Manufacturing. This is very similar to the county average, though there is a higher prevalence of retail trade in Cotati. The high manufacturing and construction numbers show that Cotati is producing tangible goods that can be exported out of Sonoma County.
Cotati Seasonally UnadjustedUnemployment Rate, 2008 - July 2014
Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'14'13'12'11'10'09'08
Cotati Seasonally UnadjustedEmployment, 2008 - July 2014
Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)
Thou
sand
s of
Em
ploy
ees
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
'14'13'12'11'10'09'08
Source: ESRI Business Analyst projections (www.esri.com)
Cotati Employed Population 16+ by Industry,2014
41%
15.8%
11.1%
8.3%
Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Construction
Agriculture and Mining
Transportation and Utilities
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
7.4%
5.2%
5.6%
0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000
Total Business Establishments2014
Santa Rosa
Petaluma
Rohnert Park
Windsor
City of Sonoma
Healdsburg
Sebastopol
Cotati
Cloverdale
Number of Businesses
Residential Real Estate
www.sonomaedb.org
5
In 2013, median home prices in Cotati rose 25.1% from 2012 to 2013. 2010 had marked the first increase in home prices since the bursting of the housing bubble in the late 2000’s. Overall, median home prices have ranged approxi-mately between $256,000 to $342,000 from 2012 to 2013.
The number of houses sold in Rohnert Park/Cotati has decreased slightly with sales down by 94 for a total of 491, a 16% loss over the past year.
The average sales price of a home in Cotati for 2013 was $368,911. This puts Cotati at the lower end of the spectrum for homes in the area. The average sales price for a home in Cotati is lower than the County average by $65,267. Cotati has a slightly lower volume of sales for its price range, when compared to Santa Rosa.
Median Price of an Existing Home in Cotati/Rohnert Park
Thou
sand
s of
Dol
lars
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'
Total Number of Houses Sold in Cotati/Rohnert Park
0
200
400
600
800
1000
13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'
Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) and Total Sales by Sub-County Area, 2013Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) County Average Price ($ Thousands)
Source all: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
WindsorSonomaSebastopolSanta RosaRohnert ParkPetalumaHealdsburgCotatiCloverdale
Source all: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com)
Real Estate & Construction
www.sonomaedb.org
6
After 2006, the recession caused many retail outlets to cut back or shut down, raising retail property vacancy rates. Retail vacancy rates in Cotati/Rohnert Park began to decline from their peak in late 2010. At the end of second quarter of 2013, retail property vacancy rate in Cotati/Rohnert Park was 8.8%, 3.7% above Sonoma County’s average retail prop-erty vacancy rate and 3.6% below Cotati/Rohnert Park’s peak.
In Sonoma County, the asking lease rates per month are categorized into office, residential, and retail. Compared to California, Sonoma County has lower lease rates in Office ($1.58 psf) and Retail ($1.42 psf). California’s lease rates are lower for Industrial property at $0.72 psf.
The values of residential and non-residential building permits in Cotati in August 2013 were $755,000 and $2,305,170, respectively. Both residential and non-residential construction are down considerably from their highs in 2003 and 2004.
Per
cent
Cotati/Rohnert Park Retail Property Vacancy Rate,Q1 2005 - Q1 2014
Source: Keegan and Coppin Company, Inc. (www.keegancoppin.com)
3
6
9
12
15
'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05
Sonoma CountyAsking Lease Rates
(psf/month)
$0
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Office Industrial Retail
Source: LoopNet (www.loopnet.com)
Sonoma County
California
Value of Residential & Non-Residential Building Permits in Cotati, 2000 - July 2014
Source: California Homebuilding Foundation
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30 Non-residential
Residential
'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00
In M
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales
www.sonomaedb.org
7
Cotati taxable sales showed signs of rebounding with a gain of 1.9%% in 2012 from 2011. This continues to break the downward trend that had seen sharp losses in recent years. In 2008, Cotati taxable sales decreased 18.8%, and in 2009 the decline was about the same, posting a 18.4% decrease. The gain seen in 2012 is consistent with the positive economic activity across Sonoma County. The county saw an increase of 7.3% in taxable sales in 2011, while the state rose quicker at 9.1%.
Compared to the national average, citizens of Cotati spend more in housing, transportation, pensions and social security, entertainment and recreation, and educa-tion. This is most notable in housing where Cotati spends 0.8% more than their national peers. They also spend nearly 1.6% less on ‘other’ category. Cotati’s biggest purchases cover housing, transportation, and other.
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99'98'97
Total Taxable Sales in Cotati,1997-2012
Source: California Board of Equalization (www.boe.ca.gov)
In M
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
Entertainment and Recreation$10,527,491
Cash Contributions/Gifts$7,101,078
Travel$5,931,736
Education$4,762,322
Other*$27,934,277
Transportation$30,281,491
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online (www.bao.esri.com)
Consumer Spending by Commodity in Cotati, 2013
Housing$68,361,310
Pensions and Social Security$22,542,554
Food$25,764,496
Healthcare$13,614,008
*The Other category includes Apparel and Services, Alcoholic Beverages, Household Operations, Housekeeping Supplies, Household furnishings and equipment, Life/Other Insurance, Miscellaneous, Personal Care Product and Services, and Smoking Products.
31.5%
14%12.7%
11.9%
10.4%
Un
Education
www.sonomaedb.org
8
The percentage of English learners in the Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District is 18.7%. This includes elemen-tary, middle, and high school students. The ratio of English learners in the Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District is below the county average of 23%, as well as the state average of 22.7%.
The average SAT score for a student from the Cotati-Rohnert Park School District in the 2012-13 school year was 1554. This places the Cotati-Rohnert Park School District below the county average of 1607 and above the state average of 1489
For a complete listing of the particular schools located in each district, please visit the Sonoma County Office of Education’s website at: http://www.scoe.org/pub/htdocs/finddistrict.html
English Learners by School District,2012-13
Percent of Total Students
Source All: California Department of Education (www.cde.ca.gov)
0% 5% 10%15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Healdsburg Unified School District
Sonoma Valley Unified School District
Cloverdale Unified School District
Santa Rosa City Schools
Sonoma County
California
Petaluma City Schools
Windsor Unified School District
Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District
Sebastopol Union School District
Cloverd
ale U
nified
Schoo
l Dist
rict
Cotati-R
ohnert Park
ified Sch
ool Dist
rict
Califor
nia
Healds
burg
Unified
Sch
ool D
istric
t
Sonom
a Vall
ey U
nified
Sch
ool D
istric
t
Wind
sor U
nified
Sch
ool D
istric
t
1300
1390
1480
1570
1660
1750
Sonom
a Cou
nty
Petalum
a Join
t
Union H
igh S
choo
l
Santa
Rosa
High S
choo
l
West S
onom
a Cou
nty
Union H
igh S
choo
l
(Seb
astop
ol)
Average Total SAT Scores by School District
2012-13 School Year
3-Year Average: 2010-13
www.sonomaedb.org
9
Cost Comparison
This year the Economic Development Board has added a new feature comparing the cost of doing business in Sonoma County versus two East Bay counties, Alameda and Contra Costa. Below, the comparisons of key economic factors are shown, including lease rates, income, travel time to work, and homeownership rate.
East Bay Sonoma County Alameda County Contra Costa County
Asking Lease Rates (per month rate)
• Office Space: $1.76 psf • Industrial Space: $0.74 psf • Retail Space: $2.08 psf
• Office Space: $1.78 psf • Industrial Space: $0.78 psf • Retail Space: $1.93 psf
• Office Space: $1.57 psf • Industrial Space: $0.80 psf • Retail Space : $1.42 psf
Payroll/Business
• Educated and Skilled workforce: 42% of People 25 years of age or older have a bachelor's degree or higher
• Per Capita Income: $36,268
• Educated and Skilled workforce: 39% of People 25 years of age or older have a bachelor's degree or higher
• Per Capita Income: $38,344
• Educated and Skilled workforce: 32% of People 25 years of age or older have a bachelor's degree or higher
• Per Capita Income: $33,357
Commu ng
• Mean travel me to work is 30.4 minutes each day
• County residents living and working in this county: 65%
• Mean travel me to work is 35.3 minutes each day
• County residents living and working in this county: 57%
• Mean travel me to work is 24.4 minutes each day
• County residents living and working in this county: 83%
Incidentals
• Homeownership rate: 51.9%
• Percentage of family households: 65%
• People below poverty level: 12.9%
• Air Quality Index (AQI): 38.5
• Homeownership rate: 64.7%
• Percentage of family households: 71%
• People below poverty level: 10.8%
• Air Quality Index (AQI):40.4
• Homeownership rate: 58.5%
• Percentage of family households: 61%
• People below poverty level: 12.4%
• Air Quality Index (AQI): 30.5
www.sonomaedb.org
10
City Data Snapshot
Cloverdale
Cotati
Healdsburg
Petaluma
Rohnert Park
Santa Rosa
Sebastopol
City of Sonoma
Windsor
SonomaCounty
TotalPopulation
2014
UnemploymentRate
July 2014
MedianHousehold
Income2014
AverageSales Priceof a Home
2013
Percentageof EnglishLeaners2013-14
AverageTotal
SAT Scores2012-13
8,840 8.9% $55, 117 $320,605 32.2% 1463
7,318 6.1%
11,551
57,941
41,976
171,453
7,463
11,186
27,174
493,218
6.6%
5.3%
5.7%
5.8%
3.7%
4.7%
5.1%
5.8%
$58,765
$61,960
$73,352
$57,027
$56,609
$57,734
$60,296
$76,492
$61,020
$368,911
$464,323
$433,252
$323,713
$399,239
$452,433
$512,361
$419,875
$434,178
18.7%
38.9%
22.7%
18.7%
29.2%
11.2%
32.5%
21%
23%
1554
1572
1605
1554
1666
1712
1536
1581
1607
Sources and Notes
www.sonomaedb.org
11
Note on Data Sources
The 2015 Cotati Local Economic Profile is a brief summary on various demographic, economic and social aspects of Petaluma. Economic Development Board (EDB) research originates from information available from outside resources and previously published material. The 2015 Cotati Local Economic Profile offers partial or composite representations of raw data and cites respective source data sets. For more information, please see the listed sources.
The Local Economic Profile does not provide complete in depth analyses of all facets of the incorporated cities or the county. The EDB believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by the EDB, its members or affiliates.
The 2015 Cotati Local Economic Profile was developed from national and local data sources. Interested readers are encouraged to contact data source agencies or organizations for further research. Readers are also invited to suggest for future reports by calling (707) 565-7170 or e-mailing [email protected].
Sources
Bay Area Real Estate Information Services
California Board of Equalization
California Department of Education
California Employment Development Department
California Homebuilding Foundation
ESRI Business Analyst
Keegan and Coppin Company
LoopNet
U.S. Census Bureau
World Media Group LLC
With acknowledgement and appreciation to key local businesses that support economic development in
Sonoma County
DIRECTOR
EXECUTIVE
SPONSOR
Sonoma County Board of Supervisors
Economic Development Board141 Stony Circle, Suite 110Santa Rosa, CA 95401(707) 565-7170www.sonomaedb.org