2015 q3 presentation€¦ · q3 2015 and ytd financial results 7 ($ millions except gold price,...
TRANSCRIPT
Q3 2015 ResultsNovember 12, 2015
FNV TSX/NYSE
Cautionary StatementForward Looking StatementsThis presentation contains “forward looking information” and “forward looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of1995, respectively, which may include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to future events or future performance, management’s expectations regarding Franco-Nevada’s growth, results ofoperations, estimated future revenues, requirements for additional capital, mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates, production estimates, production costs and revenue, future demand for and pricesof commodities, expected mining sequences, business prospects and opportunities. In addition, statements (including data in tables) relating to reserves and resources and gold equivalent ounces areforward looking statements, as they involve implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, and no assurance can be given that the estimates will be realized. Such forward lookingstatements reflect management’s current beliefs and are based on information currently available to management. Often, but not always, forward looking statements can be identified by the use of wordssuch as “plans”, “expects”, “is expected”, “budgets”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “predicts”, “projects”, “intends”, “targets”, “aims”, “anticipates” or “believes” or variations (including negativevariations) of such words and phrases or may be identified by statements to the effect that certain actions “may”, “could”, “should”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward lookingstatements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Franco-Nevada to be materially different from any futureresults, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward looking statements. A number of factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from any forward lookingstatement, including, without limitation: fluctuations in the prices of the primary commodities that drive royalty and stream revenue (gold, platinum group metals, copper, nickel, uranium, silver, iron-ore andoil and gas); fluctuations in the value of the Canadian and Australian dollar, Mexican peso and any other currency in which revenue is generated, relative to the U.S. dollar; changes in national and localgovernment legislation, including permitting and licensing regimes and taxation policies; regulations and political or economic developments in any of the countries where properties in which Franco-Nevadaholds a royalty, stream or other interest are located or through which they are held; risks related to the operators of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest, includingchanges in the ownership and control of such operators; influence of macroeconomic developments; business opportunities that become available to, or are pursued by Franco-Nevada; reduced access todebt and equity capital; litigation; title, permit or license disputes related to interests on any of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest; whether or not the Company isdetermined to have PFIC status; potential changes in Canadian tax treatment of offshore streams; excessive cost escalation as well as development, permitting, infrastructure, operating or technicaldifficulties on any of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest; actual mineral content may differ from the reserves and resources contained in technical reports; rateand timing of production differences from resource estimates, other technical reports and mine plans; risks and hazards associated with the business of development and mining on any of the properties inwhich Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest, including, but not limited to unusual or unexpected geological and metallurgical conditions, slope failures or cave-ins, flooding and other naturaldisasters, terrorism, civil unrest or an outbreak of contagious disease; and the integration of acquired assets. The forward looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon assumptionsmanagement believes to be reasonable, including, without limitation: the ongoing operation of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest by the owners or operators ofsuch properties in a manner consistent with past practice; the accuracy of public statements and disclosures made by the owners or operators of such underlying properties; no material adverse change inthe market price of the commodities that underlie the asset portfolio; the Company’s ongoing income and assets relating to determination of its PFIC status; no material changes to existing tax treatment; noadverse development in respect of any significant property in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest; the accuracy of publicly disclosed expectations for the development of underlyingproperties that are not yet in production; integration of acquired assets; and the absence of any other factors that could cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended.However, there can be no assurance that forward looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements andinvestors are cautioned that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Franco-Nevada cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward lookingstatements. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. For additional information with respect to risks, uncertainties andassumptions, please refer to the “Risk Factors” section of our most recent Annual Information Form filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com and contained in our mostrecent form 40-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on www.sec.gov) as well as our most recent Management’s Discussion and Analysis filed with the Canadian securitiesregulatory authorities on www.sedar.com and with the SEC on www.sec.gov. The forward looking statements herein are made as of the date of this presentation only and Franco-Nevada does not assumeany obligation to update or revise them to reflect new information, estimates or opinions, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
Non-IFRS MeasuresAdjusted Net Income, Adjusted EBITDA and Margin are intended to provide additional information only and do not have any standardized meaning under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”)and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. These measures are not necessarily indicative of operating profit or cash flowfrom operations as determined under IFRS. Other companies may calculate these measures differently. For a reconciliation of these measures to various IFRS measures, please see the end of thispresentation or the Company’s most recent Management’s Discussion and Analysis filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com and with the SEC on www.sec.gov.This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security in any jurisdiction
Key Developments
3
Q3 Results: Increase in GEOs helping to compensate for lower commodity prices
Antamina: Stream acquired for $610 million and will start contributing in Q4
Cobre Panama: Revised agreement finalized and $338 million of initial funding provided
Candelaria: Performing strongly and new mine plan projects 26% more GEOs over 2016-2019
Credit Facility: Increasing to $1 billion with $250 million accordion and 5 year maturity
Gold Price & GEOs Realized
4
Average Gold Price:continued weakness; down 12.3% YoY
GEOs1 Realized: +22.2% YoY
1. Please see definition on slide 18
$1,282/oz
$1,200/oz $1,219/oz
$1,193/oz
$1,124/oz
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015
Average Gold Price ($/oz)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015
Gold Eq
uivalent (0
00 oun
ces)
GOLD
PGMother
85.1 92.8 70.1 83.0 85.6
GEOs1: Q3 2014 to Q3 2015
51. Please see definition on slide 18
85,637
4,255 1,620 134
2,226
19,081
70,071
Revenue Performance
6
Overall Revenue: positive impact of increased GEOs; offset by lower commodity prices
Oil & Gas Net Revenue: volatile oil & gas prices impacting revenue
$107.6
$123.0
$109.2 $109.4$103.7
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015
Revenu
e (m
illions)
$20.5
$11.0
$5.5
$10.3$7.8
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015
Oil&
Gas Reven
ue (m
illions)
Q3 2015 and YTD Financial Results
7
($ millions except gold price, GEOs, per share and %) Q3 2015 Q3 2014 YTD 2015 YTD 2014
Gold Price ($/ounce) $1,124 $1,282 $1,179 $1,288
Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs)1 85,637 70,071 253,758 200,641
Revenue $103.7 $107.6 $322.3 $319.4
Adjusted EBITDA2 $78.0 $88.7 $243.4 $260.7
Adjusted EBITDA2 per share $0.50 $0.59 $1.55 $1.75
Net Income $15.2 $33.2 $56.0 $105.5
Net Income per share $0.10 $0.22 $0.36 $0.71
Adjusted Net Income3 $19.4 $34.5 $65.2 $104.8
Adjusted Net Income3 per share $0.12 $0.23 $0.42 $0.71
Margin4 75.2% 82.4% 75.5% 81.6%
1. Please see note 4 on slide 182. Please see note 1 on slide 183. Please see note 2 on slide 184. Please see note 3 on slide 18
Adjusted Net Income1: Q3 2014 to Q3 2015
81. Please see definition on slide 18
19.411.2
4.0
3.91.7
5.7
34.5
A High Margin and Scalable Business
9
1. Please see definition on slide 182. Quarterly average based on London PM Fix3. Fixed costs include corporate administration and business development4. Stream & Other costs include costs of stream sales, production taxes and oil & gas operating costs
‐
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
‐50
‐30
‐10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
Q3/10 Q3/11 Q3/12 Q3/13 Q3/14 Q3/15
Gold Price2
($/oz)
Millions $
$925/oz$925/oz
78.2% 81.4% 82.1% 81.3% 82.4% 75.2% Margin1
Revenue
Gold Price2
Fixed Costs3
Stream & Other Costs4
2015 Q3 Revenue Sources
10
By Commodity By Geography
90% Precious Metals79% from Americas
Antamina Transaction
11
Antamina open pit
$610 million stream on Teck’s 22.50% share of silver produced at Antamina One of the lowest cost major Cu producersImmediately accretive to GEOs, revenue, cash flow and EPSExposure to long life asset with resource, exploration and expansion upsideFirst contribution in Q4
Cobre Panama
12
Finalized terms - replacement precious metals stream agreement signedInitial payment - initial payment of $337.9 million made on November 3
- no further payments expected in 2015- $180 million expected in 2016
FQM Reports - project at 35% completion- commission and ramping up in 2018
Cobre Panama port
Cobre Panama Site
13
Plant Area
Concentrate Storage BuildingTailings Facility Decant Outlet Channel
Botija Pit Pre-Stripping
Candelaria
14
Reserve Update - Open pit Mineral Reserves increased ~24% from Dec 20131
(adjusting for mining depletion and refined economic parameters)
- Final payment to Lundin of $7.5 million related to increase- Further Reserve and Resource update expected in Q3/20151
Approval of EIA: - Environmental approval for new tailings facilityNew Mine Plan: - Improved production profile over next four year period2
- 26% increase in expected GEOs over 2016-2019
1. As per Lundin Mining Corporation’s April 7, 2015 Press Release2. As per Lundin Mining Corporation’s July 29, 2015 Press Release3. Based on silver to gold ratio of 65:1 and payability and recovery factors as per the Candelaria stream agreement
‐ 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
100,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Gold Eq
uivalent Oun
ces
Applicable Stream GEOs at Oct 6, 2014 Increase to Applicable Stream GEOs as of July 29, 2015
26% 8%
49%28%
FNV Applicable Stream GEOs3
15
Other Positive Portfolio News in 2015
Producing Advanced Exploration
46 41 174As at November 11, 2015
Timmins West • Lakeshore Gold’s new 144 GAP zone discovery
Duketon • Regis’ new discoveries at Baneygo & Tooheys Well
Macassa • Kirkland Lake’s production growth & exploration success
Fire Creek/Midas • Klondex’s exploration success & 2015 production increase
Marigold • Silver Standard exploration success & Valmy claims
Goldstrike • Barrick’s TCM ramp-up / South Arturo: production in 2016
Karma • True Gold on track for 2016 start-up
Guadalupe • Coeur now producing and has expanded reserves
Sabodala • Teranga’s Gora production in Q4
Brucejack • Pretium’s $540 million construction financing
Cerro Moro • Yamana construction decision
Sissingue • Perseus commencing construction
Tasiast • Kinross studying phased expansion
Ity • Endeavour Mining acquisition
Hardrock • Centerra’s $300 million investment
Monument Bay • Yamana acquired the asset
16 new exploration
royalties with Noront
transaction
Adding new
ounces
Projects being
advanced
New stronger
sponsorship
# of
Mineral
Assets
Available Capital
161. As at September 30, 20152. See definition on Slide 18
830
338
610 82
1,000
698
Q&A
17
Notes
18
1. Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA per share are non-IFRS financial measures, which excludes the following from net income and net income per share: income tax expense/recovery; finance expenses and finance income; foreign exchange gains/losses and other income/expenses; gains/losses on the sale of investments; impairment charges related to royalty, stream and working interests and investments; depletion and depreciation; and non-cash costs of sales.
2. Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income per share are non-IFRS financial measures, which excludes the following from net income and net income per share: foreign exchange gains/losses and other income/expenses; gains/losses on the sale of investments; impairment charges related to royalty, stream and working interests and investments; unusual non-recurring items; and the impact of income taxes on these items.
3. Margin is a non-IFRS financial measure which is defined by the Company as Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue.
4. GEOs include our gold, platinum, palladium, silver and other mineral assets. GEOs are estimated on a gross basis for NSR royalties and, in the case of stream ounces, before the payment of the per ounce contractual price paid by the Company. For NPI royalties, GEOs are calculated taking into account the NPI economics. Platinum, palladium, silver and other minerals were converted to GEOs by dividing associated revenue, which includes settlement adjustments, by the average gold price for the period. Commodity prices for the third quarters: $1,124/oz gold (Q3 2014 - $1,282/oz); $988/oz platinum (Q3 2014 - $1,434/oz); $615/oz palladium (Q3 2014 - $863/oz) and $14.91/oz silver (Q3 2014 : $19.63/oz). Commodity prices for the nine months ended September 30: $1,179/oz gold (2014 - $1,288oz); $1,103/oz platinum (2014 - $1,437/oz); $720/oz palladium (2014 - $808/oz) and $16.02/oz silver (2014 : $19.91/oz).
5. Working Capital is a Non-IFRS financial measure. The Company defines Working Capital as current assets less current liabilities.
Appendix – Non IFRS Measures
19
Three months ended
September 30, Nine months ended
September 30, (expressed in millions, except per share amounts) 2015 2014 2015 2014 Net Income (Loss) $ 15.2 $ 33.2 $ 56.0 $ 105.5
Income tax expense 8.5 13.0 28.8 40.1 Finance costs 0.6 0.4 1.5 1.2 Finance income (1.3) (1.2) (3.2) (3.0) Depletion and depreciation 49.7 38.5 150.5 114.2 Non-cash costs of sales 1.7 3.4 5.0 3.4 Impairment of royalty, stream and
working interests - 0.2
-
0.2 Foreign exchange (gains)/losses and
other (income)/expenses 1.7 1.2
2.9
(0.9)
Impairment of investments 1.9 - 1.9 - Adjusted EBITDA $ 78.0 $ 88.7 $ 243.4 $ 260.7 Basic Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 156.9 151.1
156.8
148.6
Adjusted EBITDA per share $ 0.50 $ 0.59 $ 1.55 $ 1.75 Adjusted EBITDA $ 78.0 $ 88.7 $ 243.4 $ 260.7 Revenue 103.7 107.6 322.3 319.4 Margin 75.2% 82.4% 75.5% 81.6% Three months ended
September 30, Nine months ended
September 30,
(expressed in millions, except per share amounts) 2015 2014 2015 2014 Net Income (Loss) $ 15.2 $ 33.2 $ 56.0 $ 105.5
Foreign exchange (gains)/losses and other (Income)/expenses, net of income tax1 2.5 0.5
5.2
0.5
Mark-to-market changes on derivatives, net of income tax2 - 0.7
0.2
(1.3)
Impairment of royalty interest, net of income tax - 0.1 0.1 Impairment of investments, net of income tax3 1.7 - 1.7 - Gain on sale of investments, net of income tax4 - - (0.6) - Valuation allowance - - 0.9 - Indexation tax adjustment - - (0.4) - Impact of tax rate increase - - 2.2 -
Adjusted Net Income $ 19.4 $ 34.5 $ 65.2 $ 104.8 Basic Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 156.9 151.1 156.8 148.6 Adjusted Net Income per share $ 0.12 $ 0.23 $ 0.42 $ 0.71
1 Income tax impact on foreign exchange (gains)/losses was $1.2 million (2014 - $0.1 million) and $2.1 million (2014 - $0.1 million). 2 Income tax impact on mark-to-market changes was $Nil (2014 - $0.1 million) and $Nil (2014 - $0.2 million). 3 Income tax impact on impairment of investments was $0.2 million (2014 - $Nil) and $0.2 million (2014 - $Nil). 4 Income tax impact on the gain on sale of investments was $Nil (2014 - $Nil) and $0.3 million (2014 - $Nil).