2016-2040 regional transportation plan sustainable ...scagrtpscs.net/documents/2016-2040...
TRANSCRIPT
2016-2040 Regional Transportation PlanSustainable Communities Strategy
(RTP/SCS)Development Framework
Joint Regional Council & Policy Committees’ MeetingFebruary 5, 2015
Our Goals TodayWhat is an RTP/SCS?RTP/SCS Overview
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
What has changed since we adopted the 2012 RTP/SCS?
What is our framework and schedule to adopt the 2016 RTP/SCS by April, 2016?
Challenges & Opportunities
What are the emerging demographic trends that will affect our future transportation and housing choices?
What challenges & opportunities facing the SCAG region can we address in the RTP/SCS?
How were these challenges addressed in the 2012 RTP/SCS?
RTP/SCS Overview
What is an RTP/SCS
Represents the long-term vision and accompanying investment framework to address regional transportation and land use challenges and opportunities in a region.
Secures federal funding for transportation projects Federal Requirements
Must be long-range: 20+ years into the future Must be financially-constrained: Revenues = Costs Must pass regional emission standards (Conformity)
State Requirements Must meet SB 375 requirements (address GHG reductions)
Regional Challenges
Poverty
Aging Infrastructure
Climate Change &
Environment
Economy & Revenue
Congestion
Qualityof Life
RTP/SCS Overview
RTP/SCS Overview
Past RTP/SCS AccomplishmentsInfrastructure Investment Alameda Corridor Metrolink System HOV SystemInitiated New Regional Policies Compass Blueprint program Created the subregional structure Heal the Bay program Regional aviation demand forecast Regional economic development initiatives Adopted first Sustainable Communities Strategy to reduce regional GHG
emissions
Continued Low Population Growth Declining Number of Children Annual Flow of New Immigrants is Plunging Foreign Born Peaked or Declining Long Settled Foreign Born Rise of the Immigrant Second Generation Slower Racial and Ethnic Change A Soaring Senior Ratio The Homegrown (growth from native Californians) Revolution Rising Index of Children’s Importance
Major Demographic TrendsChallenges & Opportunities
Millennials Entering the Workforce
The Intergenerational Partnership
Source: Dowell Myers, “The New Generation Future of Los Angeles,” 25th Annual Demographic Workshop, June 9, 2014.
Challenges & Opportunities
Projected Future Growth
1822
8 96 7
2008 2035
MIL
LIO
NS
People
Jobs
Households
adding thepopulationof approximatelyONE AND A HALFtimes ChicagoTo SouthernCalifornia
change of 4.2 million
change of 1.7 million
change of 1.5 million
Challenges & Opportunities
Where is Population Growth Coming From?
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year
1,651,392(97.3%)
45,959(2.7%)
1,697,351(100.0 %)
Births (less) Deaths Domestic Foreign Migration Total Increase
Southern California Sources of Population Growth, 2000-2010
Challenges & Opportunities
Population Shifts by Age Cohort
Note: Percentages do not add to 100% due to roundingSource: US Census Bureau, SCAG
5.5
6.4
10.6
11.8
2.0
4.0
2010
2035
Population by Age Group (in millions)0-20 21-64 65+
30%
29%
59%
53%
11%
18%
Challenges & Opportunities
Shift in Ages of the Population
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 1970-2040. Sacramento, CA, December 1998.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1970‐75 1975‐80 1980‐85 1985‐90 1990‐95 1995‐2000 2000‐05 2005‐10 2010‐15 2015‐20 2020‐25 2025‐29 2030‐35 2035‐40
Age 65+ Population Will Double
SCAG CA
Challenges & Opportunities
Implications of Changing Demographics
Increased demand for housing choices in central cities and mixed communities with shopping, health services, church and transportation options
Surplus of large-lot homes and increased demand for small lot homes
Increased demand for health care and social services Downward pressure on tax revenues Changing transportation preferences
Challenges & Opportunities
Much of Our Future Workforce is Living in Poverty
32.80%27.20% 26.50% 25.20%
19.80% 17.90% 17.70%
Imperial Los Angeles Inland Empire SCAG Region San Diego Orange Ventura
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2012
Share of Children Under 18 Living in Poverty for California Areas, 2012
Challenges & Opportunities
Major Unmet Adult Workforce Education Issuewith 1:2 to 1:3 Adults Marginally Educated
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2012
Share of Population High School or Less for California Areas, 2012
52.40% 52.10%46.70%
43.40%
35.50% 33.90% 33.10%29.70%
Imperial Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Ventura Orange San Diego Bay Area
5.02 MILLION marginally educated adultsin SCAG region alone
Challenges & Opportunities
$472
$651
$727
$777
$1,108
$1,329
$1,714
$1,623
11.0%
7.5%
7.0%
5.4%
4.0%
3.4%
2.3%
2.2%
ALL WORKERS: $827ALL WORKERS: 6.1%
DOCTOR’S DEGREE
PROFESSIONAL DEGREE
MASTER’S DEGREE
BACHELOR’S DEGREE
ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE
SOME COLLEGE, NO DEGREE
HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA
LESS THAN A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 2013
MEDIAN WEEKLY
EARNINGS IN 2013
Challenges & Opportunities
From Poverty to Prosperity: Increasing Pathways to Jobs & Opportunity
Median Household Income
$80,317 $58,455
Challenges & Opportunities
California Education LevelsBachelor’s Degree or Higher
43.5% 29.0%
Challenges & Opportunities
Unemployment at a GlanceChallenges & Opportunities
Sectors with Lower Educational Requirements areCandidates for Good-Paying Job Growth
2012-2035 RTP/SCSA Job Creation EngineIn April 2012, SCAG unanimously adopted the its first RTP that includes a Sustainable Communities Strategy that: Invests nearly $525 billion over the next 25 years to upgrade the
region’s transportation system Was developed through a bottoms-up local
input process with unprecedented public outreach and stakeholder involvement
Reduces per capita GHG emissions 9% by 2020 and16% by 2035
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
Economy & Cost Effectiveness
Location Efficiency
over
TWICEas many
householdswill live in
high-qualitytransit opportunity
areas
Mobility
24% DECREASE
from today’s per capita delay
Improves Regional Economy
$2.90return for every
$1 spent
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
Benefits of the 2012 RTP/SCSPerformance Outcomes
Since the Plan was adopted in April 2012, almost $10 billion worth of capital projects have been completed including: Transit Projects (Light Rail, BRT, New
Buses, Commuter Rail Enhancements etc.)
Highway Improvements (HOV, HOT, Arterials etc. )
Active Transportation (Bike Paths, Transit Station/Stop Improvements, Sidewalks etc.)
SCAG Focus: Infrastructure Investment 2012 RTP/SCS
Accomplishments
Unprecedented collaboration with State and Federal partners e.g. California and National Freight Advisory Committees
Public-Private Partnership Finance and Delivery Strategies Screening for the East West Freight Corridor (EWFC)
Goods Movement Border Crossing Study
Industrial Warehousing Study in the SCAG Region
SCAG Focus: Goods Movement2012 RTP/SCS
Accomplishments
Nationally recognized for funding innovation
Passage of SB 1077: establish pilot program to explore MBUF Working with state partners on
pilot program testing Mileage Based User Fees
Held Mileage Based User Fee Workshop
SCAG Focus: Mileage Based User Fee (MBUF)
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
SCAG Focus: Active Transportation Funding
• $200 M awarded for first 3 years of Active Transportation Program (ATP)
• More than 100 CITIES in the SCAG Region applied for ATP funds
• SCAG Regional Safety & Encouragement Campaign $2.3 M to improve safety & encourage biking/walking
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
Sustainability Grant Program provides funding to local governments to link local land use plans to RTP/SCS goals
SCAG Focus: SCS Implementation
• 72 Planning projects funded ($10 million total) since 2012
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
Provide Leadership through Collaboration
and Partnerships
Integrate Public Health into Regional Planning
Activities
Provide Regional Support through Technical
Assistance
Randall Lewis Health Policy Fellowship
Safety and Encouragement
Campaign
Public Health Working Group
Active Transportation Health and Economic
Impact Study
Public Health White Paper to inform 2016
RTP/SCS
Active Transportation Trainings and Toolkits Website Upgrades
Goals and Strategies FY 14-15 Action Plan Deliverables
SCAG Focus: Public Health Work Program 2012 RTP/SCS
Accomplishments
Joint SCAG-County Transportation Commission Work Programs formally establishing partnerships on:
SCAG Focus: Collaboration
Climate Action Complete Streets Conservation Planning First-Last Mile Strategies Regional Sustainability
Performance Measurement and Monitoring
Safe Routes to School Active Transportation Funding
2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments
CEQA Guidelines
Population
AHSC Funding Economy
Environment
SomethingElse
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
2016 RTP/SCS: Policy Challenges, Opportunities & Emerging Trends
CIRCA 1920
2016 RTP/SCS Emerging Trends & Opportunities Passenger Rail
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Passenger Rail in Southern California
1990
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Passenger Rail & Transit2016 RTP/SCS Framework
2035
Metrolink/LOSSAN
Upgradesand California High-SpeedRail Phase 1
Bus Rapid Transit Expansion
THROUGHOUT THE REGION
Light & Heavy Rail Extensions
Image courtesy Metro © 2012 LACMTA
2016 RTP/SCS Emerging Trends & OpportunitiesWhat About the Millennials?
Rapid adoption of new communication technologies
Travel fewer miles and makefewer trips
Less interested in car and house ownership
Rapidly adopting to the “shared” economy
Favor towards low-travel urban lifestyles with emphasis on walking, cycling, ride-sharing and transit
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Millennials Compared to Baby Boomers
2016 RTP/SCS Emerging Trends & OpportunitiesTransportation Technologies
Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs)
Urban Mobility Platforms eBikes Car/Bike Sharing Travel Planning Apps
Connected Vehicle Technologies Semi-automated drive modes Adaptive Cruise Control Lane centering Fully Autonomous Vehicles
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Enhanced transportation options and choices Economic development, job growth and improved access to
jobs/opportunities Improved public health Facilitate regional/local competitiveness for funding
AB 32 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (Cap and Trade) Active Transportation Program HCD Grants National Freight Strategic Plan Water bond/groundwater management
Assess new funding mechanism such as EIFD for sustainable infrastructure investment proposed in the RTP/SCS
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Anticipated General Results/Outcomes
Provide input to develop forecasts of future land use, population, household and employment growth & draft scenarios
Submit updated transportation projects for inclusion in RTP/SCS
Local Jurisdictions
County Transportation
Commissions
ON-GOING
Provide input on specific topic areas such as active transportation strategies, public health, open space and environmental justice
Other Stakeholders ON-GOING
ON-GOING
2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Bottom Up Planning Process
Planning Process – Policy Committees2016 RTP/SCS Framework
Transportation Investmento Roads and highwayso Transit (Bus, Rail and HSR)o Active Transportationo Operations and
Maintenanceo Transportation Demand
Managemento Transportation Systems
Management Goods Movement Regional Aviation Transportation Finance Emerging Transportation
Technology
TC Committee
Demographics and Growth Forecasting
Land Use Scenario Planning Housing Economic Development Sustainability Social Equity Environmental Justice
CEHD Committee
Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR) Transportation Conformity Greenhouse Gas Reductions Open Space/Habitat
Preservation Public Health
EEC Committee
Underway: Strategy & Scenario Development Summer 2015: Extensive Outreach & Public Workshops October 2015: Release of Draft 2016-2040 RTP/SCS
for public review Fall 2015: Elected officials workshops & public hearings Winter 2016: Review and address public comments April 2016: Adopt 2016-2040 RTP/SCS
2016 RTP/SCS FrameworkTimeline & Milestones
Planning for our Future
DISCUSSION
For more information visit www.scag.ca.gov