2016 china apple crop outlookusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/thr-410-choi.pdfzhonglu america...
TRANSCRIPT
China 2015 Apple Crop (Official)
10,370, 24%
9,580, 22%
5,000, 12%
4,310, 10%
3,670, 9%
3,280, 8%
2,480, 6%
3,923, 9%
China Total: 42,613
Shaanxi
Shandong
Henan
Shanxi
Hebei
Gansu
Liaoning
Others
Forecast in Aug 2015:
43,112
(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China Ministry of Agriculture
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
China 5-Year Apple Production
by Province
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ’15:‘145-Year
Average‘15: 5-yr Average
Shaanxi 9,029 9,651 9,428 9,880 10,370 5.0% 9,672 7.2%
Shandong 8,379 8,710 9,305 9,297 9,580 3.0% 9,054 5.8%
Henan 4,203 4,367 4,431 4,417 5,000 13.2% 4,484 11.5%
Shanxi 3,339 3,752 3,962 4,173 4,310 3.3% 3,907 10.3%
Hebei 2,926 3,115 3,201 3,457 3,670 6.2% 3,274 12.1%
Gansu 2,276 2,488 2,696 2,971 3,280 10.4% 2,742 19.6%
Liaoning 2,397 2,634 2,752 2,476 2,480 0.2% 2,548 -2.7%
Others 3,436 3,774 3,908 4,252 3,923 -7.7% 3,859 1.7%
All China 35,985 38,491 39,683 40,923 42,613 4.1% 39,539 7.8%
(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China Ministry of Agriculture
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
China Apple Production Trend
(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China Ministry of Agriculture
2001~2015 CAGR: 5.5%2003~2015 Average Increase: 1.8 MM/year
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
35,985
38,491
39,683
40,923
42,613
2,177
2,231
2,272
2,307
2,328
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Apple Production (1,000 MT) Acreage (1,000 Ha)
China 5-Year Apple Production,
Area Planted
18.4% Increase CAGR: 4.32%
6.9% IncreaseCAGR: 1.69%
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
5-Year Apple Acreage, Yield
in Selected Provinces
China Shandong Shaanxi Shanxi
Acreage Yield Acreage Yield Acreage Yield Acreage Yield
2011 2,177 16.5 276 30.3 623 14.5 145 23.1
2012 2,231 17.3 280 31.2 645 15.0 151 24.9
2013 2,272 17.5 303 30.1 665 14.2 154 25.7
2014 2,307 17.7 305 30.5 682 14.5 159 26.3
2015 2,328 18.3 300 31.9 695 14.9 156 27.6
CAGR 1.69% 2.62% 2.11% 1.29% 2.77% 0.68% 1.84% 4.55%
(Acreage Unit: 1,000 Ha, Yield: MT/Ha) Source: China MOA
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
5-year Apple Production by Variety
24,438 26,867 27,358 29,200 30,872
9,6699,726 10,475
10,077 10,0421,8771,898 1,850 1,646 1,699
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fuji Others (mostly Gala, Qinguan) Guoguang
(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China MOA
(68.8%)(72.4%)
(25.8%)
(23.6%)(5.4%)
(4.0%)
CAGR:6.02%
CAGR: 0.95%
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2015 Apple Crop Utilization
35,495,
83%
3,598, 8%
2,000, 5%1,600, 4%
(2015 Production + Import = 42,693)
Fresh Consumption AJC Processing
Other Processing Export
(Unit: 1,000 MT)
28.1%
28.0%
18.9%
14.4%
12.1%
12.2%
13.5%
8.9%
7.2%
8.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
For Apple Juice Concentrate
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 Apple Crop Forecast
Shaanxi- Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety, but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 Apple Crop Forecast
Shandong- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Shandong: Good weather condition. Smaller crop in early variety but not accounted much (around 10%). Big crop in Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
Fuji Apple Crop in Shandong
Aug 6, 2016
2016 Fuji Apple 2015 Fuji from CA storage
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 Apple Crop Forecast
Henan- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Shandong: Good weather condition. Smaller crop in early variety but not accounted much (around 10%). Big crop in Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Henan: Up to 50% decrease in early variety (relatively higher share). Hail damage. Forecast 5% decrease
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 Apple Crop Forecast
Shanxi- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Shandong: Good weather condition. Smaller crop in early variety but not accounted much (around 10%). Big crop in Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Henan: Up to 50% decrease in early variety (relatively higher share). Hail damage. Forecast 5% decrease
- Shanxi: Big decrease in Gala crop. Hail damage in May. But big crop expected in later varieties. Forecast a little decrease or flat
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 Apple Crop Forecast
Gansu- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Shandong: Good weather condition. Smaller crop in early variety but not accounted much (around 10%). Big crop in Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Henan: Up to 50% decrease in early variety (relatively higher share). Hail damage. Forecast 5% decrease
- Shanxi: Big decrease in Gala crop. Hail damage in May. But big crop expected in later varieties. Forecast 3% decrease
- Gansu: Qinguan/Gala cut down for Fuji. Forecast: 1% decrease
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 Apple Crop Forecast
Liaoning- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Shandong: Good weather condition. Smaller crop in early variety but not accounted much (around 10%). Big crop in Fuji. Forecast 5% increase
- Henan: Up to 50% decrease in early variety (relatively higher share). Hail damage. Forecast 5% decrease
- Shanxi: Big decrease in Gala crop. Hail damage in May. But big crop expected in later varieties. Forecast 3% decrease
- Gansu: Cutting down Qinguan/Gala for Fuji. Forecast: 1% decrease
- Liaoning: Early varieties have been replaced with Fuji. Up to 30% decrease in Guoguang due to wind. Forecast 3% decrease
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2016 China Apple Crop
Forecast
• Smaller crop in early varieties (Gala) but big in later varieties (Qinguan, Fuji)
• Average acreage increase
• Very tight supply of early varieties for processing
2016 Crop Forecast:
43,800,000 MT2.8% increase from 2015 crop, 10.8% increase from 5-year average
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
Fuji Apple Wholesale Price Trend
8.768.26
8.768.30
7.957.66 7.39 7.55 7.41 7.38
6.52 6.55 6.79
9.579.86
9.57
8.84 8.89 8.82 8.719.31 9.42
9.13 9.02 8.97 8.76
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
6/30 7/30 8/30 9/30 10/30 11/30 12/30 1/30 2/30 3/30 4/30 5/30 6/30
Red Fuji with Diameter>80mm
2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014
RMB/KG
Source:中国果品流通协会
-22.5% vs 2015
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
China 3-year Apple Import
10,38112,377 11,114
1,613
35,485
10,108 10,381
16,878
2,020
39,387
22,504 22,464
37,284
5,290
87,542
18,330
3,9481,660
4,168
28,10623,597
13,105
383 1,939
38,641
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Chile NZ USA Others Total
(Unit: MT) Source: China Customs
2016 (1-5) 2015 (1-5) 2015 2014 2013
Increased more than 3 times in 2015
especially due to big import from the USA, then slowed down in 1st half of
2016.
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
China 5-Year Apple Export
1,035 976 995865 833
631
334
$884$984
$1,036
$1,188$1,238
$1,127
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (1-6) 2015 (1-6)
Qty: 1,000 MT Price/MT Column1 Column2 Column3
+89% vs’15 (1-6)
(Source: China Customs)
Michael Choi - Zhonglu
2015 China Apple Export by country
Bangladesh129,173
16%
Thailand103,443
12%
Vietnam86,076
10%Russia85,660
10%Phillippines
69,2298%
Indonesia57,607
7%
Kazakhstan45,491
6%
Others256,338
31%
Total Export: 833,017
The 89% increase in 2016 (1-6) from 2015 (1-6) attributed to big
increase to major markets, especially to India and Philippines
15,795
17,073 17,30117,964
18,699
1,0861,089
1,112 1,113
1,070
1,075
1,080
1,085
1,090
1,095
1,100
1,105
1,110
1,115
1,120
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pear Production (1,000 MT) Acreage (1,000 Ha)
China 5-Year Pear Production,
Area Planted
(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China MOA
+18.4%CAGR: 4.3%
Michael Choi - Zhonglu