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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 1

2016 FALL/WINTERCarnegie Endowment for International Peace

ACADEMIC CATALOG

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a unique global network of policy research centers in Russia, China, Europe, the Middle East, India, and the United States. Our mission, dating back more than a century, is to advance the cause of peace through analysis and development of fresh policy ideas and direct engage-ment and collaboration with decisionmakers in government, business, and civil soci-ety. Working together, our centers bring the inestimable benefit of multiple national viewpoints to bilateral, regional, and global issues.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036P +1 202 483 7600F +1 202 483 [email protected]

Contents

Asia 5

Democracy and Rule of Law 11

Energy and Climate 15

Europe 19

Middle East 23

Nuclear Policy 29

Russia and Eurasia 33

South Asia 37

Ordering Information 41

4 | CarnegieEndowment .org


Asia


Asia has already risen by most hard-power measures. But without an under-standing of the downsides of Asia’s rise, the conventional narrative is incomplete, misleading, and inaccurate.

Chung Min Lee explores the fundamental dichotomy that defines contempo-rary Asia. While the region has been an unparalleled economic success, it is also home to some of the world’s most dangerous, diverse, and divisive challenges. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, he says, Asia’s rise doesn’t mean the demise of the West.

CHUNG MIN LEE is a professor of international relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea, and a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s Asia Program. He works on security issues in Northeast Asia, including strategic developments on the Korean peninsula.

Buy the book

Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-311-7

Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-312-4

Ebook $9.99 AND UP

978-0-87003-313-1

Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and iTunes.

Fault Lines in a Rising Asia CHUNG MIN LEE 2016

“Is Asia ready for the Asian century? Chung Min Lee’s thought-provoking new book raises serious questions about whether Asia’s fragile political structures and fraught geopolitics can sustain global leadership.” —Simon Long, Banyan columnist, Economist

i n a

Chung Min Lee

ASIA HAS ALREADY RISEN by most hard-power measures. But without an understanding of the downsides of Asia’s rise, the conventional narrative is incomplete, misleading, and inaccurate. Chung Min Lee explores the fundamental dichotomy that definescontemporary Asia. While the region has been an unparalleled economic success, it is also home to some of the world’s most dangerous, diverse, and divisive challenges. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, he says, Asia’s rise doesn’t mean the demise of the West.

“Is Asia ready for the Asian century? Chung Min Lee's thought-provoking new book raises serious questions about whether Asia’s fragile political structures and fraught geopolitics can sustain global leadership. An important corrective to current jeremiads in America about its own decline and the remorseless rise of the East.”

—Simon Long, Banyan columnist, Economist

“Chung Min Lee—with clarity and tremendous skill—illustrates the political and military challenges that the rise of Asia has brought upon the region.”

—Kiichi Fujiwara, University of Tokyo

CHUNG MIN LEE is a professor of international relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea, and a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

FAULT LINES RISING ASIAin a

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USD $19.95/GBP $13.75/CAD$25.95


Alastair Iain Johnston and Mingming Shen, editors

IN AMERICAN AND CHINESE VIEWS OF THE OTHER

PERCEPTION

MISPERCEPTION

ASIA

Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment

MICHAEL D. SWAINE NICHOLAS EBERSTADT ET AL. 2015

The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing enormous change, fueled by high levels of economic growth and deep-ening levels of integration. These and other forces are generating a shift in the distribution of economic, political, and military power across the region. This changing security environment poses a major challenge for the United States, the historically dominant power in maritime Asia. Efforts to enhance regional cooperation, reassure allies, and deter and shape potentially de- stabilizing behavior are demanding a more complex mixture of U.S. skills and understanding. An array of forces will drive both cooperation and con-flict across the Asia-Pacific region.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ net_assessment_2.pdf

Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the OtherEDITED BY

ALASTAIR IAIN JOHN-STON MINGMING SHEN2015

The underlying beliefs that people in the United States and China hold to-ward each other in the security realm are likely to influence, directly or in-directly, each side’s foreign policy with regard to the bilateral relationship. In-depth analyses of elite and public opinion survey data from the United States and China on a wide range of security issues provide nuanced and far-reaching insights into the poten-tial effects of these attitudes on the U.S.-China relationship.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ SecurityPerceptions_final1.pdf

Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-312-4

Ebook $9.99 AND UP

978-0-87003-313-1


INTERACTIVE

Charting the Post–Cold War U.S.-Japan Alliance

Since the Cold War’s end, the United States and Japan have tried to give new purpose to their alliance by expanding cooperation while managing economic tensions—with mixed results.

This interactive resource allows users to explore the modern evolution of the U.S.-Japan alliance across several policy categories, including foreign policy, science and technology, security, economics, development, and global commons, as well as health and environmental initiatives.

Explore the interactiveCarnegieEndowment.org/publications/interactive/us-japan-initiatives/


U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications

MICHAEL D. SWAINERACHEL ESPLIN ODELLLUO YUANLIU XIANGDONG 2013

Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project’s findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/us_china_security_perceptions_report.pdf

Managing China’s Petcoke Problem WANG TAO2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf

China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth YUKON HUANG CANYON BOSLER 2014

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/china_ debt_dilemma.pdf

What Myanmar Means for the U.S.-Japan Alliance JAMES L. SCHOFF 2014

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ myanmar_us_japan.pdf

SEE ALSO

Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

ASHLEY J. TELLIS 2014

China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington’s primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevi-table. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosper-ity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/balancing_without_containment.pdf


BEIJING

Chen QiResident Scholar

Matt FerchenResident Scholar @MattFerchen

Paul Haenle Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy @PaulHaenle

Shi HanResident Scholar

Pang Xun Resident Scholar

Michael PettisNonresident Senior Associate

Shi ZhiqinResident Scholar

Sun XuefengResident Scholar

Tang XiaoyangDeputy Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Resident Scholar

Wang TaoNonresident Scholar @taowangcarnegie

Yan Xuetong President, Carnegie–Tsinghua Management Board

Zhang ChuanjieResident Scholar

Zhang LihuaResident Scholar

Zhao KejinResident Scholar

Tong ZhaoAssociate @zhaot2005

CHICAGO

Evan A. FeigenbaumNonresident Senior Associate @EvanFeigenbaum

KUALA LUMPUR

Muthiah AlagappaNonresident Senior Associate

NEW YORK

John L. HoldenNonresident Senior Associate

PARIS

François GodementNonresident Senior Associate

ASIA EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Asia experts, including:


SEOUL

Chung Min LeeNonresident Senior Associate

WASHINGTON

Yukon HuangSenior Associate

Li BinSenior Associate

Evan S. Medeiros Nonresident Senior Associate

Vikram Nehru Senior Associate and Bakrie Chair inSoutheast Asian Studies @vikramnehru

Douglas H. Paal Vice President for Studies

James L. SchoffSenior Associate @SchoffJ

Michael D. Swaine Senior Associate

ASIA


ASIA

Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 1 1

Democracy and Rule of Law

ASIA


Improving Development Aid Design and Evaluation: Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains

RACHEL KLEINFELD2015

The development field increasingly looks to sophisticated metrics to measure impact. Simultaneously, practitioners are recognizing that most development programs must engage with politics and policy. Unfortunately, the measurement techniques gaining popularity are those least able to determine how to implement political reforms. Effective reform efforts require planning for and measuring change that is nonlin-ear and nonincremental.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ devt_design_implementation.pdf

Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global SecuritySARAH CHAYES 2015

Every day a new blaze seems to ignite: the bloody implosion of Iraq and Syria; the East-West standoff in Ukraine; abducted schoolgirls in northern Nigeria. Is there some thread tying these frightening inter-national security crises together? In a riveting account that weaves history with fast-moving reportage and insid-er accounts from the Afghanistan war, Sarah Chayes identifies the unexpect-ed link: corruption.

Buy the bookPaperback $16.95 978-0-39335-228-3

Hardcover $26.95 978-0-39323-946-1

Ebook $14.99 978-0-39324-653-7


PUBLISHED BY

Rachel Kleinfeld

Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains

IMPROVING DEVELOPMENT AID DESIGN AND EVALUATION

The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy

RICHARD YOUNGS2015

Calls for different models of democ-racy are becoming more prominent and widespread. The future of global politics will depend greatly on wheth-er and how democracy can be made more effective, participative, and accountable. Many politicians, diplo-mats, and experts today argue in favor of non-Western models of democra-cy. Yet it remains unclear what such models should look like. It is more useful to think in terms of specific areas of democratic variation that can encourage democratic renewal—out-side, but also within, the West.

Buy the bookPaperback $19.95 978-0-87003-428-2

Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-429-9

Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-430-5


DEMOCRACY AND RULE OF LAW

MADRID

Richard Youngs Senior Associate @YoungsRichard

WASHINGTON

Thomas Carothers Vice President for Studies

Sarah Chayes Senior Associate

Rachel Kleinfeld Senior Associate @RachelKleinfeld

13

DEMOCRACY AND RULE OF LAW EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s democracy and rule of law experts, including:

The Closing Space Challenge: How Are Funders Responding? THOMAS CAROTHERS 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_258_Carothers_Closing_Space_Final.pdf

The Complexities of Global Protests THOMAS CAROTHERS RICHARD YOUNGS2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_257_Youngs-Carothers-Global_Protests_final.pdf

The Oil Curse: A Remedial Role for the Oil Industry SARAH PECK SARAH CHAYES 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_250_Peck_Chayes_Oil_Curse_Final.pdf

Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-Term Security and Political Goals NATHANIEL MYERS 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_252_HardAid_Myers_final.pdf

The New Global Marketplace of Political Change THOMAS CAROTHERS OREN SAMET-MARRAM2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/global_ marketplace.pdf

Governing Lagos: Unlocking the Politics of Reform DIANE DE GRAMONT 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ governing_lagos.pdf

SEE ALSO


Energy and Climate


Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate IndexDEBORAH GORDON ADAM BRANDT JOULE BERGERSON JONATHAN KOOMEY 2015

Oil is changing. Conventional oil resources are dwindling as tight oil, oil sands, heavy oils, and others emerge. Technological advances mean that these unconventional hydrocarbon deposits in once-unreachable areas are now viable resources. Meanwhile, scientific evidence is mounting that climate change is occurring, but the climate impacts of these new oils are not well understood. Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, Stanford University, and the University of Calgary have developed a first-of-its-kind Oil-Climate Index (OCI) to compare these resources.

DEBORAH GORDON is director of Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, where her research focuses on oil and climate change issues in North America and globally.

ADAM BRANDT is an assistant professor in the Department of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford University.

JOULE BERGERSON is an assistant professor in the Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department and the Center for Environmental Engineering Research and Education in the Schulich School of Engineering at the University of Calgary.

JONATHAN KOOMEY is a research fellow at the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/know_your_oil.pdf

ENERGY AND CLIMATE

BEIJING

Wang Tao Nonresident Scholar @taowangcarnegie

WASHINGTON

David BurwellNonresident Senior Associate

Deborah Gordon Director @DxGordon

David Livingston Associate @WolfLivingston

Jessica T. Mathews Distinguished Fellow

17

ENERGY AND CLIMATE EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s energy and climate experts, including:The G7 Climate Mandate and

the Tragedy of Horizons DAVID LIVINGSTON2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_263_Livingston_G7_Final.pdf

Managing China’s Petcoke Problem WANG TAO2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf

The Politics of Plenty: Balancing Climate and Energy Security DAVID BURWELL2013

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ politics_of_plenty.pdf

SEE ALSO

INTERACTIVE

Assessing Global Oils: The Oil-Climate Index

The Oil-Climate Index (OCI) was developed to alert public and privatestakeholders to the diversifying array of oils’ climate impacts fromvarious perspectives, with an eye toward informing investment,development, operations, and gover-nance of the oil supply chain.The index provides new knowledge and indicators that stakeholderscan take into account to make more informed, strategic, and durabledecisions throughout the oil sector.

The OCI estimates and compares oils’ total life-cycle GHG emissions that stem from their upstream extraction, midstream refining, and downstream end use. Oils that are in production, as well as prospective resources, can be modeled using the OCI.

Explore the interactiveOCI.CarnegieEndowment.org


Europe


Cybertechnologies are rapidly changing the international landscape, but leaders in government, business, and elsewhere are just beginning to understand the ramifications, both good and bad, of an interconnected digital world. Weak international governance of cyberspace stands in stark contrast to the acceler-ating pace of challenges. To shape the regimes that govern cyberspace to the advantage of generations to come, the United States and the European Union should forge a joint policy vision.

SINAN ÜLGEN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on the implications of Turkish foreign policy for Europe and the United States, nuclear policy, and the security and economic aspects of the transatlantic relations. He is a founding partner of Istanbul Economics, a Turk-ish consulting firm that specializes in public and regulatory affairs, and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an independent think tank in Istanbul.

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/Sinan_Cyber_Final.pdf

Governing Cyberspace: A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership SINAN ÜLGEN2016

Sinan Ülgen

A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership

CarnegieEurope.eu

Ülgen GOVERNING CYBERSPACE

Reviving the OSCE: European Security and the Ukraine Crisis STEFAN LEHNE 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_249_Lehne_OSCE.pdf

The Politics of 2 Percent: NATO and the Security Vacuum in Europe JAN TECHAU 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_252_Techau_NATO_Final.pdf

Are Prime Ministers Taking Over EU Foreign Policy? STEFAN LEHNE 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ prime_min_for_policy.pdf

EUROPE

BERLINJudy Dempsey Nonresident Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Strategic Europe @Judy_Dempsey

BRUSSELS Jan Techau Director, Carnegie Europe @jan_techau

Marc Pierini Visiting Scholar @MarcPierini1

Pierre Vimont Senior Associate

ISTANBUL Sinan Ülgen Visiting Scholar @sinanulgen1

LISBON

Bruno Maçães Nonresident Associate @MacaesBruno

MADRIDKristina Kausch Nonresident Associate @kristinakausch

Richard Youngs Senior Associate @YoungsRichard

EUROPE EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Europe experts, including:

SEE ALSO

25

OXFORDGwendolyn Sasse Nonresident Associate @GwendolynSasse

VIENNAStefan Lehne Visiting Scholar @StefanLehne

WASHINGTONCornelius Adebahr Associate

Thomas Carothers Vice President for Studies


EUROPE


MiddleEast


Buy the book

Hardcover $26.99 978-1-61039-609-7

Also available as an ebook.

Less than twenty-four months after the hope-filled Arab uprising, the popular movement had morphed into a dystopia of resurgent dictators, failed states, and civil wars. Egypt’s epochal transition to democracy ended in a violent military coup. Yemen and Libya collapsed into civil war, while Bahrain erupt-ed in smothering sectarian repression. Syria proved the greatest victim of all, ripped apart by internationally fueled insurgencies and an externally supported, bloody-minded regime. Amidst the chaos, a virulently militant group declared an Islamic State, seizing vast territories and inspiring terrorism across the globe. What happened?

The New Arab Wars is a profound illumination of the causes of this nightmare. It details the costs of the poor choices made by regional actors, delivers a scathing analysis of Western misreadings of the conflict, and condemns international in-terference that has stoked the violence. Informed by commentators and analysts from the Arab world, Marc Lynch’s narrative of a vital region’s collapse is both wildly dramatic and likely to prove definitive. Most important, he shows that the region’s upheavals have only just begun—and that the hopes of Arab regimes and Western policy makers to retreat to old habits of authoritarian stability are doomed to fail.

MARC LYNCH is a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s Middle East Program where his work focuses on the politics of the Arab world. He is also a professor of political science at the George Washington University, where he recently completed a six-year term as director of the Institute for Middle East Studies. He is the director of the Project on Middle East Political Science, an international network of scholars, and a contributing editor of the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog.

The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and Anarchy in the Middle East MARC LYNCH2016

PUBLISHED BY


Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings

FREDERIC WEHREY 2013

Beginning with the 2003 invasion of Iraq and concluding with the after-math of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Frederic Wehrey investigates the roots of the Shia-Sunni divide now dominating the Persian Gulf ’s polit-ical landscape. Focusing on the three Gulf states affected most by sectarian tensions—Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait—Wehrey identifies the factors that have exacerbated or tempered sect- arianism, including domestic political institutions, the media, clerical estab-lishments, and the contagion effect of external regional events, such as the Iraq war, the 2006 Lebanon conflict, the Arab uprisings, and Syria’s civil war.

Buy the book

Hardcover $55.00 978-0-23116-512-9


The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism

MARWAN MUASHER 2014

Marwan Muasher examines the tumultuous recent events in the Arab region in the context of long-term historical pressure to build societies that will respond to Arab citizens’ longing for freedom and opportunity. Only through the painstaking process of constructing an Arab world defined by pluralism and tolerance can this dream be realized.

Buy the book

Hardcover $30.00 978-0-30018-639-0

Paperback $20.00 978-0-30021-263-1


MIDDLE EAST

PUBLISHED BY

Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the SaharaEDITED BY

FREDERIC WEHREY ANOUAR BOUKHARS 2013

The geopolitical significance of the Sahara is becoming painfully clear. Isla-mist militant groups and transnational criminal networks are operating in the region’s most fragile states, exploiting widespread corruption, weak govern-ment capacity, crushing poverty, and entrenched social and ethnic tensions. The unrest spills over borders and ag-gravates protracted regional crises.

This insecurity raises urgent concerns for the broader Sahara and for the West. Perilous Desert details the sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-403-9

Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-404-6

Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-405-3

Available on Amazon and iTunes.

PUBLISHED BY


The Sunni Predicament in Iraq RENAD MANSOUR2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_59_Mansour_Sunni_Final.pdf

The Kingdom and the Caliphate: Duel of the Islamic States COLE BUNZEL 2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_265_Bunzel_Islamic_States_Final.pdf

Mauritania’s Precarious Stability and Islamist Undercurrent ANOUAR BOUKHARS2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CEIP_CP266_Boukhars_Final.pdf

Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership with Tunisia MARWAN MUASHER MARC PIERINI ALEXANDER DJERASSI2016FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_269_Tunisia.pdf

Great Expectations in Tunisia MAHA YAHYA2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_60_Yahya_Tunisia_Final.pdf

Dilemmas of Reform: Policing in Arab Transitions YEZID SAYIGH2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CEIP_CMEC61_Sayigh_Final.pdf

SEE ALSO

Palestine in Flux: From Search for State to Search for Tactics NATHAN BROWNDANIEL NERENBERG2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CEIP_CP264_Brown-Nerenberg_Final.pdf

Shia-Centric State Building and Sunni Rejection in Post-2003 Iraq FANAR HADDAD2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP261_Haddad_Shia_Final.pdf

Sectarian Twitter Wars: Sunni- Shia Conflict and Cooperation in the Digital Age ALEXANDRA SIEGEL 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_262_Siegel_Sectarian_Twitter_Wars_.pdf


MIDDLE EAST


MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Middle East experts, including:

LONDON

Carole Nakhle Nonresident Scholar

WASHINGTON

Joseph Bahout Visiting Scholar @jobahout

Anouar Boukhars Nonresident Scholar @aboukhars01

Nathan J. Brown Nonresident Senior Associate

Perry Cammack Associate @perrycammack

Alexander Djerassi Nonresident Associate

Michele Dunne Director and Senior Associate @MicheleDDunne

Marc Lynch Nonresident Senior Associate

Karim Sadjadpour Senior Associate @ksadjadpour

Frederic Wehrey Senior Associate @FWehrey

Katherine Wilkens Nonresident Associate

AMMAN

Marwan Muasher Vice President for Studies @MarwanMuasher

BEIRUT

Georges Fahmi Nonresident Scholar @GeorgesFahmi

Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck Visiting Scholar

Kheder Khaddour Nonresident Scholar

Raphaël Lefèvre Nonresident Scholar @RaphLefevre

Renad Mansour El-Erian Fellow @renadmansour

Farea al-Muslimi Visiting Scholar @almuslimi

Yezid Sayigh Senior Associate

Maha Yahya Acting Director, Carnegie Middle East Center and Senior Associate @mahamyahya

CAIRO

Amr Adly Nonresident Scholar

Refugees and the Making of an Arab Regional Disorder MAHA YAHYA2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CMEC57_Yahya_final.pdf

Egypt’s Escalating Islamist Insurgency MOKHTAR AWAD MOSTAFA HASHEM2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_ 58_Egypt_Awad_Hashem_final.pdf

Market for Jihad: Radicalization in TunisiaGEORGES FAHMI HAMZA MEDDEB2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_55_ FahmiMeddeb_Tunisia_final_oct.pdf


Nuclear Policy


Wagging the Plutonium Dog: Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International Security Implications

JAMES M. ACTON 2015

Japan is the only non-nuclear- weapon state with a program to extract plutonium from the spent fuel produced in nuclear reactors—a process termed reprocessing—to fabricate more fuel. Because plutoni-um can be used directly in the man-ufacturing of nuclear weapons, Japan has, in keeping with internationally recognized best practice, pledged not to produce more plutonium than it can consume. Serious questions are emerging, however, about whether it can uphold this commitment.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ Plutonium_Dog_final.pdf

An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control? ALEXEI ARBATOV 2015

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Arbatov2015_n_web_Eng.pdf

Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving IdentityTOGZHAN KASSENOVA2014

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/brazil_ nuclear_kaleidoscope_lo_res.pdf

Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike JAMES M. ACTON2013

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/cpgs.pdf

SEE ALSO

Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International Security Implications

James M. Acton

WAGGINGTHEPLUTONIUMDOG

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Turkey’s Nuclear FutureEDITED BY

GEORGE PERKOVICH SINAN ÜLGEN 2015

Turkey is a rising economic and political force with the ability to affect dynamics in the greater Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. To meet its rising energy needs, the coun-try—already an important actor in the international nuclear order—plans to establish nuclear power plants on its territory. Turkey’s location in a nuclear-ized environment fraught with security dilemmas has led to speculation that Turkish leaders could someday move beyond civilian use and begin to develop nuclear weapons.


Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-416-9

Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-417-6Available on Amazon and iTunes.

urkey, with a robust modern economy and growing energy needs, is pursuing a switch to nuclear power. But that shift is occurring in an environment fraught with security challenges: Turkey borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran—all states with nuclear or WMD ambitions or capabilities. As a NATO member, Turkey also hosts U.S. nuclear bombs on its territory, although some question the durability of this relationship. This dynamic has naturally led to speculation that Turkish leaders might someday consider moving beyond a civilian course to develop nuclear weapons. Yet there has been remarkably little informed analysis and debate on Turkey’s nuclear future, either within the country or in broader international society.

This volume explores the current status and trajectory of Turkey’s nuclear program, adding historical perspective, analytical rigor, and strategic insight.

GEORGE PERKOVICH is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. SINAN ÜLGEN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, a founding partner of Istanbul Economics, and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul.

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An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control? ALEXEI ARBATOV 2015

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Arbatov2015_n_web_Eng.pdf

Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving IdentityTOGZHAN KASSENOVA2014

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/brazil_ nuclear_kaleidoscope_lo_res.pdf

Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike JAMES M. ACTON2013

FREE

Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/cpgs.pdf

NUCLEAR POLICY

BEIJING

Tong Zhao Associate @zhaot2005

BERLIN

Mark Hibbs Senior Associate @MarkHibbsCEIP

BIRMINGHAM

Nicholas D. Wright Nonresident Associate

BRUSSELS

Pierre Goldschmidt Nonresident Senior Associate

GENEVA

Shahram Chubin Nonresident Senior Associate

ISTANBUL

Sinan Ülgen Visiting Scholar

LONDON

Paul Schulte Nonresident Senior Associate

MOSCOW

Alexey Arbatov Scholar in Residence

Vladimir Dvorkin Distinguished Military Fellow

Petr Topychkanov Associate @PTopych

TEL AVIV

Ariel (Eli) Levite Nonresident Senior Associate

TOKYO

Tomoko Kurokawa Nonresident Scholar

WASHINGTON

James M. Acton Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program @james_acton32

Taylor P. Brooks Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow

Toby Dalton Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program @toby_dalton

William Norris Nonresident Associate


NUCLEAR POLICY EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s nuclear policy experts, including:

Togzhan Kassenova Associate @tkassenova

Li Bin Senior Associate

George Perkovich Vice President for Studies @PerkovichG

Tristan Volpe Stanton Fellow and Associate @teeandersvolpe


Russia and Eurasia


Russian Elite Opinion After Crimea DENIS VOLKOV 2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ Volkov_WEB_Eng.pdf

The Resurgence of a Market Economy in North Korea ANDREI LANKOV2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ Lankov_Eng_web_final.pdf

U.S. Policy Toward Central Asia 3.0EUGENE RUMERRICHARD SOKOLSKYPAUL STRONSKI2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_259_Central_Asia_Final.pdf

SEE ALSO

Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order

RAJAN MENON EUGENE RUMER 2015

The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has un-dermined European security, raised questions about NATO’s future, and put an end to one of the most ambi-tious projects of U.S. foreign policy—building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. Each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this danger-ous game of chicken, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia.

Buy the book

Hardcover $24.95 978-0-26202-904-9


Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide

THOMAS DE WAAL 2015

The destruction of the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire in 1915–1916 was the greatest atrocity of World War I. Thomas de Waal looks at the aftermath and politics of the Armenian Genocide and tells the story of recent efforts by courageous Armenians, Kurds, and Turks to come to terms with the disaster as Turkey enters a new post-Kemalist era. The story of what happened to the Armenians in 1915–1916 is well-known. Here we are told the “history of the history” and the lesser-known story of what happened to Armenians, Kurds, and Turks in the century that followed.

Buy the book

Hardcover $29.95 978-0-19935-069-8


PUBLISHED BY

PUBLISHED BY

The Rise of Nontraditional Islam in the Urals ALEXEY MALASHENKO ALEXEY STAROSTIN 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_MalashenkoUral_Sept2015_web_Eng.pdf

Russian Ideology After Crimea ANDREI KOLESNIKOV2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Kolesnikov_Ideology2015_web_Eng.pdf

Understanding the Revitalization of Russian-Iranian RelationsNIKOLAY KOZHANOV 2015

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Kozhanov_web_Eng.pdf

RUSSIA AND EURASIA

LONDON

Thomas de Waal Senior Associate @Tom_deWaal

MOSCOW

Alexey Arbatov Scholar in Residence

Alexander Baunov Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Carnegie.ru @baunov

Vladimir Dvorkin Distinguished Military Fellow

Alexander Gabuev Senior Associate @AlexGabuev

Andrei Kolesnikov Senior Associate

Nikolay Kozhanov Nonresident Scholar

Andrey Movchan Senior Associate Alexey Malashenko Scholar in Residence

Maxim Samorukov Deputy Editor, Carnegie.ru

Petr Topychkanov Associate @PTopych

RUSSIA AND EURASIA EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia experts, including:

RUSSIA AND EURASIA

35

Dmitri Trenin Director, Carnegie Moscow Center @DmitriTrenin

VILNIUS

Balázs Jarábik Nonresident Scholar @BalazsJarabik

WASHINGTON

Ambassador James F. Collins Senior Associate and Diplomat in Residence

Eugene Rumer Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, and Senior Associate

Richard Sokolsky Senior Associate

Paul Stronski Senior Associate @pstronski

Andrew S. Weiss Vice President for Studies @AndrewSWeiss


South Asia


The Indian Air Force (IAF) is in crisis. Despite being a world-class combat arm, the IAF’s falling end strength and problematic force structure, combined with its troubled acquisition and development programs, threaten India’s air superiority over its rapidly modernizing rivals, China and Pakistan. Indian air dominance is vital for deterrence stability in southern Asia and for preserving the strategic bal-ance in the wider Indo-Pacific region. Resolving India’s airpower crisis, therefore, should be a priority for New Delhi.

ASHLEY J. TELLIS is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. While on assignment to the U.S. Department of State as senior adviser to the under secretary of state for political affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/Tellis_IAF_final.pdf

Troubles, They Come in Battalions: The Manifold Travails of the Indian Air Force ASHLEY J. TELLIS 2016The Manifold Travails of the Indian A

ir ForceAS

H L E Y J . T E L L I S

TROUBLES, THEY COME IN BATTALIONS


A M E R I C A N A N D I N D I A N P E R S P E C T I V E S

ASHLEY J. TELLISAND

C. RAJA MOHAN

SOUTH ASIA

Unity in Difference: Overcoming the U.S.-India Divide

ASHLEY J. TELLIS 2015

U.S. President Barack Obama’s return to India in January 2015 carries the hope that Washington and New Delhi may succeed in placing their cooperation on firmer foundations. Achieving this objective will require reconciling American expectations of exchange-based relations with the Indian desire for a no-obligations partnership. This challenge is best handled through a set of complemen-tary policies in Washington and New Delhi that together are most aptly characterized as “unity in difference.”

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ unity_in_difference.pdf

The Strategic Rationale for Deeper U.S.-Indian Economic Ties

ASHLEY J. TELLIS C. RAJA MOHAN 2015

The U.S.-India relationship was often distant during the Cold War, but the partnership is now critical for both countries’ strategic aims. India is important to the U.S. effort to maintain its international primacy, while the United States is essential to India’s attainment of its great power ambitions. Deepened economic inter-course, including one day through a comprehensive U.S.-Indian free-trade agreement, is vital to realizing both countries’ aspirations.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ US_India_TellisMohan_Final.pdf

Getting India Back on Track: An Action Agenda for Reform EDITED BY

B IBEK DEBROYASHLEY J. TELLIS REECE TREVOR2014

India has fallen far and fast from the runaway growth rates it enjoyed in the first decade of the twenty-first century. In order to reverse this trend, New Delhi must seriously reflect on its policy choices across a wide range of issue areas.

Getting India Back on Track broadly co-incides with the 2014 Indian elections to spur a public debate about the pro-gram that the next government should pursue in order to return the country to a path of high growth. It convenes some of India’s most accomplished an-alysts to recommend policies in every major sector of the Indian economy.


Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-426-8

Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-427-5

Available on Amazon and iTunes.


SOUTH ASIA

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s South Asia experts, including:

India as a Leading PowerASHLEY J. TELLIS2016

FREE

Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_268_Tellis_India_final1.pdf

Understanding the Indian Voter MILAN VAISHNAV2015

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ understanding_indian_voter.pdf

Making Waves: Aiding India’s Next-Generation Aircraft CarrierASHLEY J. TELLIS 2015

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ making_waves.pdf

SEE ALSONEW DELHI

C. Raja Mohan Director, Carnegie India @MohanCRaja

NORMAN, OK

Aqil Shah Nonresident Scholar

PARIS

Gilles Dorronsoro Nonresident Scholar

Frederic Grare Nonresident Senior Associate

Christophe Jaffrelot Nonresident Scholar

WASHINGTON

Sarah Chayes Senior Associate

George Perkovich Vice President for Studies

Ashley J. Tellis Senior Associate

Milan Vaishnav Senior Associate @MilanV

Xiaoping Yang Visiting Scholar

Employing India: Guaranteeing Jobs for the Rural Poor

EDUARDO ZEPEDA ET AL. 2013

India’s rural employment guarantee is a milestone in social policy and employ-ment creation. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guaran-tee Act was mandated in 2005 to im-plement an ambitious, demand-driven employment-creation program to benefit the rural poor through projects that improve agricultural productivity and alleviate land degradation. Guar-anteeing the right of rural households to 100 days of unskilled manual work, the program’s size sets a worldwide precedent. It has achieved impressive results, but the act continues to pose immense design and management challenges.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/india_ rural_employment.pdf


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Exam copies are shipped via USPS Media Mail. Delivery time ranges from 10 to 14 days. If you need your item sooner, please contact the publications department at [email protected].

DESK COPIES

If you are currently using a Carnegie book in your course and would like a desk copy for reference, please submit a desk copy request on school letterhead. Specify the name of the course, the semester in which it is offered, and the estimated enrollment. There is no fee for desk copies.

Desk copies are shipped via USPS Media Mail. Delivery time ranges from 10 to 14 days. If you need your item sooner, please contact the publications department at [email protected].

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• Author and title of the requested publication • Pages/chapters to be photocopied • Number of copies to be made • Course name and estimated enrollment

SOUTH ASIA

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s South Asia experts, including:

Please submit all exam copy, desk copy, and photocopy requests to:

Publications DepartmentCarnegie Endowment for International Peace1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036F +1 202 483 1840 [email protected]

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