Prevent  Risks  or  Manage  Consequences?  Food  Security  and    

Water  Infrastructure  Development    

Session  Lead:  Paul  Wyrwoll  Australian  NaEonal  University  

Food  Energy  Environment  Water  (FE2W)  Network    

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What  are  your  concerns  or  worries  related  to  the  impacts  of  hydropower  &  irriga7on  development  on  food  security  in  the  Greater  Mekong  region?  

PopulaEon  growth  

Drought  

Price  volaElity  

Low-­‐capacity    insEtuEons  

Floods  

Climate  change  Soil  degradaEon  

DeforestaEon  Technology  

Dietary  Change  

Crop  disease  Aquifer  degradaEon  

PolluEon  

PoliEcal  instability  

Biodiversity  loss  

Limita7ons  of  Risk  =  Likelihood  x  Consequence  

•  (Almost  certain  x  Minor)  ≈  (Catastrophic  x  Rare)?  •  What  acEons?  How  do  they  interact?  •  Systems  and  feedback  effects?  

The  Risks  and  Op7ons  Assessment  for  Decision-­‐Making  (ROAD)  Process  

 

 

 

 

Summary of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) Process (Version 0.2) This diagram provides a summary of the ROAD Process currently under development by the Food, Energy, Environment, Water (FE2W) Network (www.fe2wnetwork.org)

DEF

INE

SCO

PE

Consult all Stakeholders � Explore system across Food, Energy, Environment and Water � Recognise dynamic nature of Objectives � Define limits of decision space

ASS

ESS

RIS

KS

& O

PTIO

NS

Assess outcomes across Stakeholders � Deploy quantitative and qualitative tools � Select portfolios of Options � Account for different time-scales � Acknowledge Uncertainties

IMPL

EMEN

T

DEC

ISIO

NS

Undertake piloting approach to implementation � Question assumptions & estimates in Steps 1-7 � Adaptive management � Evaluate across time-scales � Monitor across Stakeholders

Phase Guidelines Key Questions Output Action

Who are the Decision-makers? Who are the Stakeholders? What are their Objectives?

2. Identify Events & Drivers

What are the risks being assessed?

What are the triggers?

What are the consequences?

3. Develop Options

What are the options to control

risks?

What are the options to mitigate consequences? Identify

resources

Identify external factors

6. Risks and Options Assessment

Estimate outcomes from Consequences

& Risks

Identify existing data & information and knowledge gaps

Identify Baselines & Thresholds

Estimate outcomes from

alternative portfolios

Which Stakeholders benefit? Which Stakeholders lose out? Are Decision-maker Objectives met? Are Stakeholders’ Objectives met? What is the change against the Baselines? Are Thresholds breached?

9. Evaluate Outcomes

Do outcomes diverge from

expectations? Are outcomes

negative?

Evaluate outcomes across stakeholders,

decision-maker objectives, baselines

& thresholds

1. Stakeholders & Knowledge

What are the drivers?

4. Define Causal Risk Model

DOCUMENT CAUSAL RISK MODEL & SCOPE

Define linkages & directions of causation

Graphically define a causal risk

model

5. Prepare Tools & Data

What is the strength of knowledge? What is the quality of data & information?

What are the key Uncertainties? What are the key Indicators?

Collate further data & information Estimate Likelihoods

Select tools Prepare assessment criteria

Estimate outcomes

from Options

Develop portfolios of

Options

7. Investment Decisions & Stress Test

Would a different portfolio be selected under alternative assumptions & estimates?

DOCUMENT DECISIONS & RATIONALE DOCUMENT STRESS TEST RESULTS

Select portfolio of Options & Investment decisions

Stress Test the selected portfolio

8. Consult & Revise

Do Stakeholders believe key estimates and assumptions are incorrect?

Do Stakeholders support decisions?

Consult Stakeholders on decisions

Review & revise

decisions Implement decisions in phases

10. Consult & Revise

Re-evaluate causal

model & review

available options

DOCUMENT OUTCOMES UPDATE CAUSAL RISK

MODEL COLLATE & RECORD DATA

& INFORMATION

Step

   

ROAD  Pilot  Project  in  Đơn  Dương  District,    Lâm  Đồng  Province,  Vietnam      

  !

Lâm  Đồng  Province  

The  vision  of  Lâm  Đồng  PPC:  1.  Centre  of  commercial  

agriculture  in  SE  Asia  2.  Diversified  agricultural  

products  3.  Improve  water  planning  

and  management  4.  Green/environmentally  

friendly  province  

Đơn  Dương  District  

Overview  of  Đơn  Dương  District  •  91,000  people,  61,000  ha  •  Mountains,  highlands  and  (ferEle)  valleys  •  Agriculture  56%  of  district’s  economy  •  Average  income  about  twice  the  naEonal  average  •  High-­‐intensity  commercial  agriculture  (vegetables)  •  Groundwater  is  main  water  source  for  dry  season  •  Water  allocaEon  trade-­‐offs  (hydropower  vs.  ag.)  •  2015-­‐2016  drought  •  Rapid  growth  undermining  sustainability…..    

What  policy  op7ons  can  address  the  risk  of  water  demand  exceeding  water  supply  in  the  dry  season?  

ROAD  Pilot  Workshop,  Don  Duong  July  2016  

Many  defini7ons  of  a  “risk”  •  “the  possibility  of  an  unfortunate  occurrence”  •  “potenEal  for  realizaEon  of  unwanted,  negaEve  

consequences  of  an  event”  •  “exposure  to  a  proposiEon  (e.g.  the  occurrence  of  

a  loss)  of  which  one  is  uncertain”  •  “consequences  of  an  acEvity  and  associated  

uncertainEes”  •  “deviaEon  from  a  reference  value  and  associated  

uncertainEes”  Society  for  Risk  Analysis  Glossary  

Working  defini7on:    

“A  risk  is  an  event  with  uncertain  consequences”  

Poten7al  food  security  risks  associated  with  hydropower  and  irriga7on  development  in  GM  •  Blockage  of  wet  season  fish  migraEon  by  dam  construcEon    

•  Inflow  storage  for  future  hydropower  generaEon  ê  downstream  flows  to  irrigaEon    

•  Dam  construcEon  reduces  sediment  transfer  •  ………  

 Mekong,  Salween,  Irrawaddy,  Red    

Defini7ons  of  causal  model  components  

Risk:  an  event  with  uncertain  consequences  Trigger:  an  event  that  is  the  immediate  cause  of  a  risk  Driver:  threat,  trend  or  other  risk  source  causing  a  trigger  to  occur  Consequence:  outcome  of  a  risk  affecEng  objecEves  Control:  an  acEon  that  modifies  the  likelihood  or  the    consequences  of  a  driver  or  a  trigger  causing  a  risk  Mi?gant:  an  acEon  that  alleviates  the  aker-­‐the-­‐event    consequences  of  a  risk    

Debrief  

Open  Feedback  

•  Could  you  use  a  version  of  the  ROAD  process  in  your  own  work?  

•  Where  might  there  be  demand  for  the  ROAD  process  in  the  Greater  Mekong  to  address  the  food  security  risks  of  water  infrastructure  development?  

•  Who  do  you  know  that  should  learn  more  about  this  work?