2017 Annual Operating Plan

April 1 Runoff Forecast

Albuquerque District

DefinitionsNative/Natural Rio Grande water: Water that comes directly from the Rio Grande Basin

San Juan-Chama water: Water that is imported into the Rio Grande Basin from the San Juan Basin through the San Juan-Chama Project

Rio Grande Compact: Agreement between the states of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas that apportions Rio Grande water between the three states.

Article 7: Section of the Rio Grande Compact that dictates storage in reservoirs. If Rio Grande Project storage is less than 400,000 ac-ft at Elephant Butte and Caballo, no storage of Rio Grande water can take place at El Vado except to satisfy Native American needs or as part of the Emergency Drought Water Agreement.

Definitions (cont.)cfs- cubic feet per second (roughly 7.5 gallons/second)

Acre foot = approximately 326,000 gallons or 43,560 cubic feet

Hydrograph – graph of flow rate per unit time

The District – Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD)

The City – City of Albuquerque now Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA)

NRCS – Natural Resources Conservation Service

Supplemental water – Water leased by Reclamation to augment flows in support of the Rio Grande Silvery Minnow as outlined in the 2016 Biological Opinion

P&P – Prior & Paramount

What Drives the ProcessVolume Forecast from the NRCSBased on snowpack, soil moisture, climate forecast

Choose similar year based on similar volumeActual hydrograph vs. average hydrographCan tweak timing of hydrograph to best match forecasted conditions (warm Spring vs. cool Spring)

Inflows/Outflows based on nature and policies

Article VII restrictionsFlood control and channel capacityTiming of water deliveriesDemand curves from water users

Similar Year Hydrographs

0

1000

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7000

3/1 3/16 3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/30 6/14 6/29 7/14 7/29

Rio Chama @ La Puente

1957

1965

1980

1983

1986

2005

2017

AVG

1965: 322,0241986: 326,5432005: 341,8791983: 342,9721980: 346,3141957: 352,500(acre-feet)

Operated By:

Dams:

Reclamation Corps Water Supply Recreation

Flood Control

Sediment Control

HERON

EL VADO

ABIQUIU

NAMBE FALLS

GALISTEO

COCHITI

JEMEZ CANYON

ELEPHANT BUTTE

2016: The Year in Review

Heron Reservoir

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Flow

[cfs

]

Inflow Actual Inflow

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Flow

[cfs

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Outflow Actual outflow

40000

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Stor

age

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ft]

Storage Actual Storage

El Vado Reservoir

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Abiquiu Reservoir

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[cfs

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Outflow Actual outflow

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age

[ac-

ft]

Storage Actual Storage

Cochiti Reservoir

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Flow

[cfs

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Inflow Actual Inflow

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Flow

[cfs

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Outflow Actual outflow

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Stor

age

[ac-

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Storage Actual Storage

Elephant Butte Reservoir

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[cfs

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Inflow Actual Inflow

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[cfs

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Outflow Actual outflow

20000

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120000

170000

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270000

320000

370000

420000

470000

Stor

age

[ac-

ft]

Storage Actual Storage

Current Snow Conditions

SNOTEL Locations

Rio Chama Snow Data

048

121620

11/7

/201

6

12/7

/201

6

1/7/

2017

2/7/

2017

3/7/

2017

4/7/

2017

5/7/

2017

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

reci

p (in

.) Chamita SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 8400'

16-17 SWE Data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Rio Chama Snow Data

05

101520253035404550

11/7

/201

6

12/7

/201

6

1/7/

2017

2/7/

2017

3/7/

2017

4/7/

2017

5/7/

2017

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

reci

p (in

.)

Cumbres SNOTEL Site 2016-17Elev. 10,400'

16-17 SWE Data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Rio Chama Snow Comparison

0

20

40

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120

11/7

12/7 1/7

2/7

3/7

4/7

5/7

Tota

l Bas

in S

WE

(inch

es)

Rio Chama Basin

15-16

16-17

Average

Similar Snowpack Years

0

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SWE

(in)

2017 vs. Similar Years, and Average Rio Chama Snowpack Index

Average

2017

1984

2008

1983

1993

1995

1982

2005

Runoff Volumes (ac-ft)1995: 455,0881993: 385,8411983: 342,9722005: 341,8752008: 320,7791984: 315,6891982: 303,219

Rio Grande Snow Data

02468

1012

11/7

/201

6

12/7

/201

6

1/7/

2017

2/7/

2017

3/7/

2017

4/7/

2017

5/7/

2017

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

reci

p (in

.) Upper Rio Grande SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 9,400'

'16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE '16-17 Precip. data Avg. Precip.

Rio Grande Snow Data

05

1015202530

11/7

/201

6

12/7

/201

6

1/7/

2017

2/7/

2017

3/7/

2017

4/7/

2017

5/7/

2017

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

reci

p (in

.)Beartown SNOTEL 2016-17

Elev. 11,600'

'16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE '16-17 Precip. data Avg. Precip.

Sangre de Cristo Snow Data

02468

1012141618

11/7

/201

6

11/2

1/20

16

12/5

/201

6

12/1

9/20

16

1/2/

2017

1/16

/201

7

1/30

/201

7

2/13

/201

7

2/27

/201

7

3/13

/201

7

3/27

/201

7

4/10

/201

7

4/24

/201

7

5/8/

2017

5/22

/201

7

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

reci

p (in

.)

Gallegos Peak SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 9,800'

16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Sangre de Cristo Snow Data

02468

101214161820

11/7

/201

6

11/2

1/20

16

12/5

/201

6

12/1

9/20

16

1/2/

2017

1/16

/201

7

1/30

/201

7

2/13

/201

7

2/27

/201

7

3/13

/201

7

3/27

/201

7

4/10

/201

7

4/24

/201

7

5/8/

2017

5/22

/201

7

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

reci

p (in

.)

Wesner Springs SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 11,120'

16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Monsoon Season Temperature Outlook

Monsoon Season Precipitation Outlook

2017 Water Operations Modeling

Major Assumptions• April 1 50% most probable forecast• Storage of water for Prior & Paramount

lands• Out of Article VII restrictions for several

weeks

April Forecast DataMost

Probable Percent of Average

April 1 50% Probability

Volume, ac-ft

2016 2017 2017

Rio Grande nr Del Norte 84% 109% 560,000

El Vado Reservoir Inflow 60% 160% 360,000

Rio Grande at Otowi 60% 128% 920,000

Nambe Reservoir Inflow 71% 89% 5,800

Jemez blw Jemez Dam 44% 74% 25,000

Rio Blanco @ Diversion 76% 117% 63,000

Navajo River @ Diversion 75% 115% 75,000

Historic Mar-Jul Flow Volumes at Otowi

0

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(ac-

ft)

March-July Volumes at Otowi(2017 - NRCS forecast volumes)

April Forecast - (Mar-Jul vol)50% probability - 920,000 ac-ft90% probability - 675,000 ac-ft10% probability - 1,200,000 ac-ft30-year average: 720,000 ac-ft

Heron Reservoir

Proposed 2017 Heron OperationsStorage Capacity=401,000 ac-ft

Reservoir will rise up to 25 feet from beginning of year to end

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[cfs

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2017 Heron Operations

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

El Vado Reservoir

Proposed 2017 El Vado Operations

Lake Level: Could finish the year 35’ higher than current levels

0

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2017 El Vado Operations

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

ABIQUIU LAKE

Proposed 2017 Abiquiu Operations

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2017 Abiquiu Operations

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

Estimated Hydrograph at Embudo

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Flow

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2017 Flow at Embudo

COCHITI LAKE

Proposed 2017 Cochiti Operations

41000

42000

43000

44000

45000

46000

47000

48000

0

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2017 Cochiti Operations

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

Estimated Hydrograph at Central Ave.

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2017 Flow at Central Ave Gage

Estimated Flow at San Acacia

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Flow

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2017 Flow at San Acacia Gage

Proposed Elephant Butte Operations

Maximum Elevation = 4340.35’ (6/17). Minimum Elevation= 4311.25’ (9/30)

0

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Stor

age

[ac-

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Flow

[cfs

]

2017 Elephant Butte Operations

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

4280.00

4290.00

4300.00

4310.00

4320.00

4330.00

4340.00

4350.00

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

5000001-

Jan-

17

1-Fe

b-17

1-M

ar-1

7

1-A

pr-1

7

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-A

ug-1

7

1-S

ep-1

7

1-O

ct-1

7

1-N

ov-1

7

1-D

ec-1

7

Elev

atio

n in

feet

Stor

age

in a

cre-

feet

Date

Elephant Butte Storage and Pool Elevation

Storage

Projected Storage

Projected Pool Elevation

Pool Elevation

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1-Ja

n-17

1-Fe

b-17

1-M

ar-1

7

1-A

pr-1

7

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-A

ug-1

7

1-S

ep-1

7

1-O

ct-1

7

1-N

ov-1

7

1-D

ec-1

7

Flow

in c

fs

Date

Elephant Butte Inflow and Outflow

Inflow

Projected Outflow

Projected Inflow

Outflow

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change

4280.00

4290.00

4300.00

4310.00

4320.00

4330.00

4340.00

4350.00

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

1-M

ar-1

7

1-Ap

r-17

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-Au

g-17

1-Se

p-17

1-O

ct-1

7

Elev

atio

n in

feet

Stor

age

in a

cre-

feet

Date

Elephant Butte Storage and Pool Elevation

Storage

Projected Storage

Projected Pool Elevation

Pool Elevation

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1-M

ar-1

7

8-M

ar-1

7

15-M

ar-1

7

22-M

ar-1

7

29-M

ar-1

7

5-A

pr-1

7

12-A

pr-1

7

19-A

pr-1

7

26-A

pr-1

7

3-M

ay-1

7

10-M

ay-1

7

17-M

ay-1

7

24-M

ay-1

7

31-M

ay-1

7

7-Ju

n-17

14-J

un-1

7

21-J

un-1

7

28-J

un-1

7

5-Ju

l-17

12-J

ul-1

7

19-J

ul-1

7

26-J

ul-1

7

2-A

ug-1

7

9-A

ug-1

7

16-A

ug-1

7

23-A

ug-1

7

30-A

ug-1

7

6-S

ep-1

7

13-S

ep-1

7

20-S

ep-1

7

27-S

ep-1

7

4-O

ct-1

7

11-O

ct-1

7

18-O

ct-1

7

25-O

ct-1

7

Flow

in c

fs

Date

Elephant Butte Inflow and Outflow

Inflow

Projected Outflow

Projected Inflow

Outflow

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change

4120.00

4125.00

4130.00

4135.00

4140.00

4145.00

4150.00

4155.00

4160.00

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

800001-

Jan-

17

1-Fe

b-17

1-M

ar-1

7

1-A

pr-1

7

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-A

ug-1

7

1-S

ep-1

7

1-O

ct-1

7

1-N

ov-1

7

1-D

ec-1

7

Elev

atio

n in

feet

Stor

age

in a

cre-

feet

Date

Caballo Storage and Pool Elevation

Storage

Projected Storage

Pool Elevation

Projected PoolElevation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1-Ja

n-17

1-Fe

b-17

1-M

ar-1

7

1-A

pr-1

7

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-A

ug-1

7

1-S

ep-1

7

1-O

ct-1

7

1-N

ov-1

7

1-D

ec-1

7

Flow

in c

fs

Date

Caballo Inflow and Outflow

Inflow

Outflow

Projected Inflow

Projected Outflow

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change

4120.00

4125.00

4130.00

4135.00

4140.00

4145.00

4150.00

4155.00

4160.00

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

800001-

Mar

-17

1-A

pr-1

7

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-A

ug-1

7

1-S

ep-1

7

1-O

ct-1

7

Elev

atio

n in

feet

Stor

age

in a

cre-

feet

Date

Caballo Storage and Pool Elevation

Storage

Projected Storage

Projected PoolElevationPool Elevation

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1-M

ar-1

7

1-A

pr-1

7

1-M

ay-1

7

1-Ju

n-17

1-Ju

l-17

1-A

ug-1

7

1-S

ep-1

7

1-O

ct-1

7

Flow

in c

fs

Date

Caballo Inflow and Outflow

Inflow

Outflow

Projected Inflow

ProjectedOutflow

Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change