2017 rocky mount & twin counties economic outlook
TRANSCRIPT
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Presented by Kenneth Hunter, MPASmall Business Committee
Presented ByKenneth Hunter, MPA
January 31, 2017
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Sources for Information
Special Thank You!
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Overview – Key Themes
The Metrics of Optimism
Pushing Beyond “New Normal”
Rocky Mount’s Resurgence
Predictions
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The Metrics of Optimism
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The National Picture
2016 Q4(Annualized)
$16.805T
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The National Picture
2016 Q4(Annual Growth)
+1.9%
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The National Picture
2016 Q4(Annualized)
$51,823/capita (+1.2%)
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Inflation – CPI
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Inflation - CPI
December 2016All Items: +2.1%
Less Food & Energy: +2.2%
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Inflation - PPI
December 2016+2.6%
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Energy – Crude Oil
1-Month: Little Change12-Month: +$8 (+18%)
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Energy – Natural Gas
1-Month: -$0.15 (-4%) 12-Month: -$0.20 (-6%)
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Energy – Gasoline
US Average1-Month: Unchanged
12-Month: +$0.50 (+27%)
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Energy – Electricity
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Market Momentum Continues
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Market Momentum Continues
1-Year Change: +18%
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Strong Across Sectors
1-Year Change: +18%
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Risk Muted, Volatility Not a Concern
1-Year Change: +18%
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Treasuries Perking Up?
1-Year Change: +18%
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Industrial Activity Stable (and Looking Up?)
1-Year Change: +18%
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Business Inventories Remain High
1-Year Change: +18%
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Export Growth Subsiding
1-Year Change: +18%
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Trade Deficit Stable
1-Year Change: +18%
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Pushing Beyond “New Normal”
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1.8 Million More Employed in 2016
1-Year Change: +18%
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Many Opportunities Available, Nationally
1-Year Change: +18%
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Wage “Recovery” Finally a Reality
1-Year Change: +18%
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Still Too Many Not Working
1-Year Change: +18%
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New Home Sales Up for 2016, but Interest Rates…
1-Year Change: +18%
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Existing Home Sales Hurt by Low Inventories
1-Year Change: +18%
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Starts Still Favor Multi-Family
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Price Recovery in Hot Markets
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Appreciation Once Again Strong
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Rocky Mount’s Resurgence
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Local Housing is Growing
Rocky Mount MLS 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-Year Change 3-Year ChangeNew Listings 1,641 1,571 1,566 1,452 -7.3% -11.5%Average List 129,493$ 134,621$ 131,595$ 137,925$ 4.8% 6.5%Total Sold 865 868 962 1,010 5.0% 16.8%Average Sold Price 107,416$ 112,117$ 114,613$ 118,305$ 3.2% 10.1%Average Days on Market 160 166 168 154 -8.3% -3.8%
Information courtesy Kathy Akers, Boone, Hill, Allen & Ricks Real Estate
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Visible Local (Re)development
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Local Employment Growth ContinuesRocky Mount MSA Since November '15 Since December '15 Since October '16Change in Labor Force
Edgecombe -188 -0.80% 127 0.55% -205 -0.9%Nash 194 0.44% 779 1.77% 374 0.8%Rocky Mount MSA 6 0.01% 906 1.35% 169 0.2%
Change in EmploymentEdgecombe 117 0.55% 347 1.64% 171 0.8%Nash 462 1.11% 865 2.11% 355 0.9%Rocky Mount MSA 579 0.92% 1212 1.95% 526 0.8%
Rocky Mount City Since November '15 Since December '15 Since October '16Change in Labor Force
In Edgecombe -41 -0.64% 22 0.35% 14 0.2%In Nash 68 0.38% 343 1.94% 111 0.6%Citywide 27 0.11% 365 1.52% 125 0.5%
Change in EmploymentIn Edgecombe 2 0.03% 65 1.12% 47 0.8%In Nash 169 1.02% 330 2.01% 142 0.9%Citywide 171 0.76% 395 1.78% 189 0.8%
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Local Employment Growth Continues68
,033
67,1
33
66,2
48
67,1
93
67,6
99
66,3
59
65,9
58
65,4
90
65,7
01
64,4
95 66
,411
67,8
70
68,0
39
62,8
46
62,2
13
60,9
50
61,7
76
62,5
80
61,3
07
61,4
01
60,6
46
60,8
80
59,7
30 61
,735
62,8
99
63,4
25
55K
60K
65K
70K
2015/11 2015/12 2016/1 2016/2 2016/3 2016/4 2016/5 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08 2016/09 2016/10 2016/11
Labor Force & Employment Levels,Rocky Mount MSA, November 2015 to November 2016
Labor Force Employed
24,3
92
24,0
54
23,6
73
24,0
17
24,3
01
23,9
52
23,8
03
23,6
13
23,7
53
23,3
35 23
,927
24,2
94
24,4
19
22,4
37
22,2
13
21,7
25
22,0
20
22,3
01
21,8
49
21,8
84
21,6
15
21,6
93
21,2
90 22
,004
22,4
19
22,6
08
20K
21K
22K
23K
24K
25K
2015/11 2015/12 2016/1 2016/2 2016/3 2016/4 2016/5 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08 2016/09 2016/10 2016/11
Labor Force & Employment Levels,City of Rocky Mount, November 2015 to November 2016
Labor Force Employed
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Local Employment Growth Continues
5.9%
4.9%
3.8%
2.8%
1.8%
1.5%
-1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
9.8%
10.3%
-3.5%
2.8%
3.6%
1.5%
0.0%
-4.4%
1.3%
0.9%
-0.6%
0.0%
7.1%
-0.8%
-17.3%
-0.9%
-1.7%
-6.9%
7.8%
-20.6%
-6.0%
-7.6%
-11.6%
-9.7%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Retail Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Manufacturing
Government
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality Services
Goods Producing
Service-Providing
Private Service Providing
Total Private
Total
Change in Rocky Mount MSA Nonfarm Employment by Sectors, November 2016
1-Month 1-Year Since Jan. '08
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How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?24
.0%
20.4
%
13.7
%
12.4
%
12.3
%
10.6
%
9.4%
6.6%
2.9%
2.4%
1.1%
-0.3
%
-1.2
%
-1.4
%
-3.7
%
-7.8
%
13.2
%
9.3%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Ra
leig
h
Char
lotte
Burli
ngto
n
Durh
am-C
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ingt
on
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ville
Gre
envi
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ille
G'b
oro-
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h Po
int
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em
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dsbo
ro
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ory
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ttevi
lle
Rock
y M
ount
MSA
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of R
ocky
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ombi
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Stat
ewid
e
Change in Employment Since January 2008(as of November 2016)
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How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?
8.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.4%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.9%
-2.0%
-6.0%
0.7%
1.7%
0.2%
0.3%
1.6%
5.3%
7.4%
0.7%
6.0%
5.0%
2.9%
5.0%
1.9%
0.0%
2.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
-0.5%
-1.1%
1.5%
3.1%
2.6%
2.4%
2.9%
4.8%
10.5%
12.7%
8.6%
-16.3%
34.4%
27.2%
1.3%
-11.9%
14.3%
3.6%
4.8%
3.3%
20.4%
-13.3%
11.9%
13.8%
7.6%
7.1%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
GovernmentRetail Trade
Education and Health ServicesTrade, Transportation, and Utilities
ConstructionAdministrative and Waste Management
Professional and Business ServicesOther ServicesManufacturing
Management of CompaniesFinance and Insurance
Financial ActivitiesInformation
Leisure and Hospitality ServicesGoods ProducingService-Providing
Private Service ProvidingTotal Private
Total
Change in Statewide Employment by Sectors, November 2016
1-Month 1-Year Since Jan. '08
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How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?4.1% 3.9%
5.4%
-0.3%
0.5%
3.1%4.2%
-1.5%
4.9%
3.0%
5.8% 5.6%5.0%
-5.2%
-1.4%
3.2%
5.8%
-2.1%
4.1%3.5%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Change in Per Capital Personal Income, 2006-2015
Rocky Mount MSA Statewide
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How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?5.5%
-3.2%
3.7%
0.1%
-3.7%
-5.2%-4.7%
-3.2%-2.5%
4.8%5.5%
0.1%
2.4%
-3.9%
1.1% 1.2%
-0.3%
1.5%1.9% 2.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Change in Real (Chained) GDP, 2006-2015
Rocky Mount MSA Statewide
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Predictions
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Small Business is Back (Mentally)
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Consumers Feel Better
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Capital Investment Looks Strong
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Leading Indicators Continue Upward
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General Outlook is Positive
“Real GDP is expected to increase 1.6% in 2016, before accelerating to 2.2% in 2017. Few economists participating in the survey believe a business cycle peak is imminent.”
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North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Connaughton)
1.3%
2.1%
2.7%
1.9% 2.0%
6.8%
5.7% 5.6%
5.0% 5.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dr. Connaughton's 2017 North Carolina Economic Forecast (Presented December 2016)
GDP Unemployment
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North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Walden)
January 2017+0.1% 1-Month Change
+1.0% 12-Month Change
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North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Walden)