2017 - tahoe rim trail · counters in various places within the tahoe rim trail system. in 2017, 31...

21
2017 TRAIL COUNTER DATA REPORT

Upload: others

Post on 13-Sep-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

20

17

TRAIL COUNTER DATA REPORT

Page 2: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

REPORT SUMMARY

In order to better understand trail use levels and trends, the Tahoe Rim Trail Association utilizes passive infrared and magnetic trail counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general, the counters have confirmed anecdotal evidence and suggest that High Use areas of the system receive over 300 average daily trips in the peak use season, with some sites seeing nearly 1,000 trips on high-use days. Trends indicate that use on the Tahoe Rim Trail is increasing rapidly and is up as much as an average of 25% over the past four years. The total number of trail users in 2017 is estimated at about 500,000.

Although the data do have limitations, the conclusions reached in this report represent a good faith effort to evaluate trail use on the Tahoe Rim Trail system using the best available information. With the results reported here, and by collecting additional data in the future, the Tahoe Rim Trail Association and its partners can have defensible data upon which to make management decisions.

Page 3: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

01

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PROGRAM OVERVIEW 1

INFRARED COUNTERS 6

02

03 BICYCLE COUNTERS 15

PROGRAM DESCRIPTION

PROGRAM GOALS

2017 COUNTERS

LIMITATIONS

ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

IR COUNTER RESULTS

ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

MB COUNTER RESULTS

04 NEXT STEPS 17

LESSONS LEARNED

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 2018 & BEYOND

Page 4: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

PROGRAM OVERVIEW

PROGRAM DESCRIPTION Both anecdotal and scientific observations have concluded that recreation use in the Tahoe Basin is on the rise and is currently at historically high levels. Visitation to the Basin is at around 5.7 million annually, and among those visitors recreation in the form

of hiking and mountain biking is more popular than ever before. As one of the premier outdoor recreation resources in the Basin, the 198+ mile Tahoe Rim Trail (TRT) system is seeing more users than ever before. Understanding use levels and trends on the trail is essential for adjusting management strategies to meet evolving challenges.

Beginning in 2007, the Tahoe Rim Trail Association (TRTA) has used trail counters to monitor use levels. The first few years of monitoring were spotty, without enough counters to cover much of the trail. However, with the recent acquisition of additional hardware, the organization now owns approximately two dozen infrared (IR) trail counters and half a dozen magnetic bicycle (MB) counters. The IR counters collect information on all trail users while the MB counters collect information only on wheeled traffic (mountain bikes). Both counter types collect data in the form of individual trips or hits: each time someone passes the counter a single trip or hit is recorded. Counters allow for close monitoring of multiple sites around the trail at any given time and can potentially provide data for informing critical management decisions.

The data gathered through this program is of particular use for identifying and managing high-use areas where additional resources may be warranted to reduce environmental risks, repair or prevent tread deficiencies, or mitigate natural resource damage. In addition, the data is essential for establishing baseline use numbers before connector trails are built and for assessing the increased traffic from those trails. Further, the counters are a powerful tool in monitoring illegal trail use, such as mountain bike incursions into Designated Wilderness Areas. The data resulting from this program can also be used to more accurately assess the overall number of trail users on the TRT and to create stronger arguments regarding relevancy when competing for funding, marketing the trail, or any time that quantifying the significance of the trail would be useful. PROGRAM GOALS The goals of this program are to:

1) Develop a digital database that stores information collected from the counters, and

2) Analyze and share the data with partners so that it can be used to inform management decisions, fundraising, and other programs.

Specifically, this report seeks to analyze collected data to answer the following key questions:

1) Which areas of the trail receive High, Moderate, and Low use? 2) What are the trends in trail use in general and on different segments?

01

1

Page 5: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

3) How many trail users recreate on the Tahoe Rim Trail system each year? 4) How many mountain bikes trespass on the PCT south of Echo Summit and

north of Meiss Meadows?

The digital databases that store and analyze the data recorded by the trail counters are maintained both through a Geographical Information System (GIS) and online via the TRAFx Datanet website.

This report was developed to share the knowledge gained through the trail counter program throughout the TRTA and amongst partners. 2017 COUNTERS In 2017, 26 IR and 5 MB counters were installed in the field. Of these, 8 IR and 2 MB counters were intended to over-winter in the field to collect data from multiple seasons. No data has been retrieved from these counters so they are not considered in this report. In total, 18 IR counters and 3 MB counters were placed solely for data collection in 2017 (see Map 1 and Map 2 for exact locations). Though it varied by counter, on average the devices collected data for between three and four months from late-June to early-October. The 2017 season was compressed compared to 2016 because of the lingering snowpack following the extreme winter of ‘16-‘17 and early snowfall in the fall of 2017. One of the MB counters failed. Four of the IR counters failed completely and two others partially failed. In total, 14 IR and 2 MB counters collected usable data. The MB counter that failed was on the Mt Rose Waterfall trail. The counter malfunctioned for unknown reasons and the data recorded was determined to be inaccurate.

The four IR counters that failed completely were the Tahoe City North, Mt Rose Waterfall Trail, Spooner North and Kingsbury North Connector. The Tahoe City North counter failed because a battery popped out and therefore no data was collected. The Mt Rose Waterfall Trail and Kingsbury North Connector counters both disappeared, presumably stolen, and were not found near their installation points. The Spooner North counter collected data but it was erratic and not valid, perhaps due to placement where vegetation caused false readings.

The two IR counters that partially failed were the K to K and Ward Creek Bridge counters. Both of these counters had been moved from their original locations by trail users and clear breaks in the data indicate that they remained in place gathering valid data for about 6 weeks each. LIMITATIONS The data and conclusions presented in this report are a result of a good faith effort to accurately portray trail use on the TRT system based on limited information. Both passive infrared and magnetic counters have known issues in collecting accurate numbers of users when they travel in groups and therefore tend to undercount. Due to weather and logistical constraints, counters traditionally spend only a small portion of the year on the trail, and unfortunately the dates have varied widely from year to year and counter to counter. This makes it impossible to account for known issues that affect use

2

Page 6: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

levels, such as the shift northbound PCT hikers make to travel later in the season when summer snow levels remain high. While attempts have been to normalize data the only way to overcome these limitations is to amass a robust data set that spans long periods of the year over multiple years.

Gilmore Lake.

3

Page 7: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

2017 INFRARED TRAILCOUNTER LOCATIONS

0 63Miles ¸

LEGEND

National Forest

DesignatedWilderness

Tahoe Rim TrailSystem

FailedCounters

SuccessfulCounters

Partially FailedCounters

HUMBOLDT-TOIYABE

NATIONALFOREST

TAHOENATIONAL

FOREST

ELDORADONATIONAL

FOREST

LAKE TAHOEBASIN

MANAGEMENTUNIT

GRANITECHIEF

WILDERNESS

DESOLATIONWILDERNESS

Lake TahoeNV State Park

CA

LIF

OR

NIA N

EV

AD

A

MAP 1

MOUNT ROSEWILDERNESS

K to K &Lower VS Counters

Counter LeftOver Winter

4

Page 8: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

2017 MOUNTAIN BIKECOUNTER LOCATIONS

0 63Miles ¸

LEGEND

HUMBOLDT-TOIYABE

NATIONALFOREST

TAHOENATIONAL

FOREST

ELDORADONATIONAL

FOREST

LAKE TAHOEBASIN

MANAGEMENTUNIT

MOUNT ROSEWILDERNESS

GRANITECHIEF

WILDERNESS

DESOLATIONWILDERNESS

National Forest

DesignatedWilderness

Lake TahoeNV State Park

MAP 2

Successful MBCounters

Tahoe Rim TrailSystem

CA

LIF

OR

NIA N

EV

AD

A

Failed MBCounters

Counter LeftOver Winter

5

Page 9: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

INFRARED COUNTERS

ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

Trail Use Levels In order to answer the question, “Which areas of the trail receive High, Moderate, and Low use?” data on average daily trips (ADT)

from the IR counters were utilized. Not all counters collected data during the same time periods, so data from July 1 through September 30 (92 days) were used as a common timeframe. This period was used because it encompasses the snow-free season with the most comfortable temperatures during which most trail use occurs and because most IR counters in 2017 were active during that time. The IR counters that were not active for that entire period are Martis Roadwalk (activated 7/17), Spooner South (no data past 9/29), K to K (failed 8/2), Freel Meadow (activated 7/14), Echo Lake Taxi North (activated 7/5), Showers Lake South (activated 7/4), and Ward Creek Bridge (failed 7/31).

In order to normalize data that was collected from those seven counters, a correction equation was applied to all partial data sets to estimate ADT over the standard of 92 days. To do this, the average percent change in ADT for all units was calculated for the timeframe in which data was collected for any given unit with only partial data. The ADT for the timeframe in which a unit functioned was then multiplied by the average percent difference of all other units. For example, the Martis Roadwalk counter collected data from July 17 to September 30. The ADT for that unit in that timeframe was 30.4. The average ADT for the functioning units in that same time period was 113.9. That figure is 92.7% of the ADT for the functioning units over the entire 92 day period (which is 122.8). 92.7% of 30.4 is 28.2, which is the corrected ADT for Martis Roadwalk. Note: K to K counter data were excluded from all calculations pertaining to the whole trail system because it was not collecting data on an official trail or part of the TRT system.

The resulting ADT for each counter fell between a low of 17.4 and a high of 392.5, with an average of 122.0 (see Table 1, not including the K to K data). Using a geometric interval optimization method, three classes of use were determined. An ADT from 0 to 46 (four locations) is Low Use, an ADT from 46 to 144 (six locations) is Moderate Use and an ADT above 144 (three locations) is High Use. This compares to data from last year in which an ADT of 0 to 44 was Low Use, an ADT from 44 to 116 was Moderate Use, and an ADT above 116 was High Use. As with last year’s report, the declared use level corresponds to the year in which the data was collected and is not adjusted to the most recent use class brackets.

To extrapolate use levels for sections of the trail from the counter data, it was assumed that users were either going out-and-back on the TRT from an access point to a major attraction (such as from the Mt. Rose Summit parking area to Galena Waterfall) or were creating a loop using the TRT and another intersecting trail. This method somewhat discounts long-distance trail users and assumes that most use is day use by people who are returning to their starting location.

02

6

Page 10: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

Trail Use Trends To answer the question, “What are the trends in trail use in general and on different segments?” historical counter data from 2007-2016 were analyzed and compared to 2017 data. The percent change in ADT over time was calculated by comparing counter data from the same location and the same calendar dates (though different years). Five locations were analyzed: four locations had data spanning 2014-2017 and one location had data spanning 2008-2017 (see Table 2). Of the five locations, four showed Increased Use, one showed Decreased Use, and none showed Stagnant Use (any difference of less than 2%). The average change in use over all sites was positive, at about a 27% increase, though this number does not reflect the differences inherent in measuring over diverse time periods at different locations. It should be noted that the ADT used for trend data may be different than the ADT used to determine overall use levels because the time frames analyzed are not identical.

Overall User Numbers To answer the question, “How many trail users recreated on the Tahoe Rim Trail system in 2017?” three issues must be addressed. First, the trip calculations made by the counters must be converted into unique users. Second, the data from the counters must be extrapolated to estimate use over the entire trail system. Third, data from a short time period must be extrapolated to estimate use over an entire year. There is no foolproof method to accomplish any of these three tasks so the final result will be somewhat speculative. Nevertheless, as more data is collected each year in various locations along the trail, the estimate will improve.

The IR counters tallied a total of 188,365 trips in 2017. To convert this number from trips to users, it must be multiplied by a factor somewhere between 0.5 and 1. Multiplying by a factor of one would indicate that each trip represents one user, i.e. there were no out-and-back trips past the same counter and no one was counted by two counters on the same trip. Multiplying by a factor of 0.5 would indicate that each user passed the counter twice, i.e. every trip was out and back. We have no data on how many trips were out-and-back or covered enough distance to register on two counters, but based on observational and anecdotal evidence it is reasonable to assume that most use on most trail sections was out-and-back day use and that a majority of users were counted only by one counter on the same trip. To represent these assumptions a factor of 0.7 was used.

To extrapolate data from limited locations to estimate use covering the entire trail system, the number of users must be multiplied by another factor. Based on the results presented in the Trail Use section of this report (see page 9), use data in 2017 is available for approximately 51.7 miles or about 26.0% of the TRT system. Therefore, multiplying the IR counter data by a factor of 100/26 (approximately 3.85) will yield an estimate of the trip data extrapolated to cover 100% of the trail system.

The 2017 counters collected data in a period that generally covered the season of highest use (mid-summer into early fall). July or August were the months with the highest number of trips at every counter site, with trip numbers

7

Page 11: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

declining to the lowest, but unknown, levels sometime in the winter. One counter, at Spooner South, was left in place and collected data all winter. The data from that counter suggest that as little as two-thirds of all use takes place during July, August and September. This is lower than expected from use curves produced from data from other counters in 2016 and 2017. With additional data in future years, it may be possible to revise the estimate that more than three-quarters of all use occurs in the summer time period. For this report, an estimate of 80% of trail use occurring during the high use summer season will continue to be used. Therefore, the trip number can be multiplied by a factor of 1/0.8 (1.25) to extrapolate use during the entire year.

TABLE 1: Average Daily Trips, and Use Levels for 2017 IR counters

Counter Name Data Year Average Daily

Trips Use Level

Martis Roadwalk 2017 28.2 Low

Spooner South 2017 54.8 Moderate

K to K (Not a TRT System Trail)

2017 24.2 Low

Northeast Daggett 2017 17.4 Low

Panorama 2017 68.7 Moderate

Lower Van Sickle Connector

2017 369.4 High

Stagecoach South 2017 69.1 Moderate

Freel Meadows 2017 23.5 Low

Showers Lake South 2017 64.2 Moderate

Echo Summit South 2017 46.1 Moderate

Echo Lake Trailhead 2017 360.5 High

Echo Lake Taxi North 2017 392.5 High

Ward Creek Bridge 2017 35.7 Low

Page Meadow 2017 56.0 Moderate

8

Page 12: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

TABLE 2: Percent change in Average Daily Trips over time

Counter Name

Data Years & Average Daily Trips Time Period

Analyzed

Percent Change

Over Time

Spooner South

2008 2014 2016 2017 7.16 – 9.28 +14.2%

50.56 79.83 89.57 57.75

Lower Van Sickle

Connector

2014 2015 2017 7.21 – 8.1 +101.9%

222.6 332.3 449.5

Stagecoach South

2014 2016 2017 7.19 – 10.20 -10.3%

71.8 48.9 64.4

Echo Summit South

2014 2016 2017 7.19 – 11.2 +12.1%

33.1 27.2 37.1

Echo Lake Trailhead

2014 2017 7.18 - 10.5 +19.2%

334.1 398.2

Note: the ADT for each counter reflects only the period of time when data was collected for all years analyzed; the numbers may vary from ADTs in Table 1.

IR COUNTER RESULTS

Trail Use Levels High, Moderate, Low and Unknown trail use on the Tahoe Rim Trail is shown in Map 3. Areas of the trail identified as High Use based on IR counter data (2017 and earlier) comprise 23.1 miles or 11.6% of the trail and are:

1) Brockway East Trailhead up to the Picnic Rock Vista, 2) The Galena Waterfall Trail from Mt. Rose Summit to the Galena Waterfall, 3) Tahoe Meadows and Ophir Creek to Tunnel Creek Road, 4) The Kingsbury North Connector, 5) The Van Sickle Connector Trail up to the Van Sickle Waterfall, 6) Big Meadow south to the Lake/Christmas Valley Trail, and 7) Echo Lake Trailhead to the first Triangle Lake Trail junction.

Identified Moderate Use sections comprise 32.3 miles or 16.3% of the trail and are:

1) Spooner Summit north to the North Canyon Trail, 2) Spooner Summit south to the Genoa Peak Road spur, 3) The Van Sickle Connector Trail from the waterfall up, 4) The top of the Van Sickle Connector Trail to the Mott Canyon reroute, 5) The southern junction with the Pacific Crest Trail to Sayles Canyon, 6) Echo Summit south to Bryan Meadow, 7) Barker Pass north to the PCT/TRT junction, and 8) Ward Creek Boulevard through Page Meadows to Tahoe City.

9

Page 13: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

TRAIL USE LEVELS

0 63Miles ¸

LEGEND

National Forest

DesignatedWilderness

Unknown Use

Low Use

High Use

Moderate Use

HUMBOLDT-TOIYABE

NATIONALFOREST

TAHOENATIONAL

FOREST

ELDORADONATIONAL

FOREST

LAKE TAHOEBASIN

MANAGEMENTUNIT

MOUNT ROSEWILDERNESS

GRANITECHIEF

WILDERNESS

DESOLATIONWILDERNESS

Lake TahoeNV State Park

CA

LIF

OR

NIA N

EV

AD

A

MAP 3

10

Page 14: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

Identified Low Use sections comprise 47.8 miles or 24.1% of the trail and are:

1) Tahoe City to Brockway, 2) Martis Trailhead to Western Gray Lake Trail junction, 3) The northeastern portion of the Daggett Loop, 4) The TRT/Van Sickle Connector intersection north to Kingsbury Grade, 5) Mott Canyon south to Monument Pass, 6) Armstrong Pass to Big Meadow Trailhead, including Grass Lake Spur, and 7) Stanford Rock Trail Junction to Ward Creek Road.

The remaining areas of the trail are designated as Unknown Use since there is no reliable IR counter data for those locations.

In addition to the Average Daily Trip levels, Maximum Daily Trip information was calculated for each IR counter by isolating the day that saw the most recorded trips (excluding days with special events such as races). This data is summarized in Table 3. In 2017, the highest recorded use in a single day was at Echo Lake Taxi North which saw 1160 trips on July 23. Other sites also saw very high use in a single day, including 973 trips on September 3 at Echo Lake Trailhead and 834 trips on July 3 at the VSSP Waterfall.

The maximum daily trip level is a notable characteristic to measure because extremely high use, even if it is sustained for only a short period of time such as a single day, is likely indicative of the resulting level of long-term natural resource impacts that will result at a given location. For example, much more vegetation trampling can be expected at a lakeshore that sees 1,000 users in a day than at that same site if 1,000 users are spread out evenly over the course of a month. Similarly, 100 campers in a campsite for one night will likely have a greater impact than one camper for 100 nights. Some social impacts, however, do not follow the same pattern. The reduced satisfaction that might be felt by some users if they have to share a lakeshore with 1,000 others can be alleviated if those users who prefer solitude visit on a day that is not as busy. Concentrating use in resistant and resilient locations but dispersing use levels over time will tend to minimize most natural resource damage and negative social impacts.

Data on use levels in 2017 can be extrapolated for 51.7 miles or about 26.0% of the trail. Combined with data on use levels from previous years, information on 103.2 miles, or approximately 51.9% of the TRT system can be extrapolated. While more data collection clearly needs to be done to gain a complete picture, the available data is useful for understanding use patterns in numerous locations. When data from the trail sections that currently have unknown use levels is analyzed, trail-wide analyses may be performed to direct resources and inform management decisions.

11

Page 15: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

TABLE 3: Maximum Daily Trips for 2017 IR counters

Counter Name Maximum Daily Trips Date

Martis Roadwalk 77 8/13

Spooner South 295 6/17

K to K (Not a TRT System Trail)

48 7/8

Northeast Daggett 50 7/22

Panorama 259 9/2

Lower Van Sickle Connector

834 7/3

Stagecoach South 196 9/2

Freel Meadows 203 9/9

Showers Lake South 224 7/29

Echo Summit South 128 8/12

Echo Lake Trailhead 973 9/3

Echo Lake Taxi North 1160 7/23

Ward Creek Bridge 112 7/2

Page Meadow 163 9/11

Trail Use Trends Areas of Increased, Decreased, Stagnant, and Unknown Use trends are show in Map 4. Identified areas of Increased Use based on IR counter data comprise 38.8 miles or 19.5% of the trail and are:

1) Brockway west to Watson Lake, 2) Brockway east up to the Picnic Rock Vista, 3) The Waterfall Trail from Mt. Rose Summit to the Galena Waterfall, 4) Tahoe Meadows and Ophir Creek to Tunnel Creek Road, 5) Spooner Summit north to the North Canyon Trail, 6) Spooner Summit south to Genoa Peak Road spur, 7) The Kingsbury North Connector, 8) The Van Sickle Connector Trail up to the waterfall, 9) Big Meadow north and Grass Lake Spur North to Tucker Flat, 10) Big Meadow south to the Lake/Christmas Valley Trail, 11) Echo Summit south to Bryan Meadow, and

12) Echo Lake Trailhead to the first junction with the Triangle Lake Trail.

12

Page 16: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

TRAIL USE TRENDS

0 63Miles ¸

LEGEND

HUMBOLDT-TOIYABE

NATIONALFOREST

TAHOENATIONAL

FOREST

ELDORADONATIONAL

FOREST

LAKE TAHOEBASIN

MANAGEMENTUNIT

MOUNT ROSEWILDERNESS

GRANITECHIEF

WILDERNESS

DESOLATIONWILDERNESS

National Forest

DesignatedWilderness

Unknown Use

Decreased Use

Increased Use

Stagnant Use

Lake TahoeNV State Park

MAP 4

CA

LIF

OR

NIA N

EV

AD

A

13

Page 17: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

Identified areas of Decreased Use comprise 7.5 miles or 3.8% of the trail and are:

1) Tahoe City north to the Burton Creek State Park trail connector, and 2) Stagecoach south to the Mott Canyon Reroute,

The only identified area of Stagnant Use comprises 4.9 miles or 2.5% of the trail and is:

1) Barker Pass north to the PCT/TRT junction.

The remaining areas of the trail are designated as Unknown Use since there is no reliable IR counter data on trends there.

Current data on use trends can only be extrapolated for 51.2 miles, or approximately 25.8% of the TRT system. In general, the data suggest that use is increasing on most trail sections monitored, and very sharply up in some. For example, the Van Sickle Waterfall Trail appears to see an increase of about 50% year-on-year, which is an incredibly high rate. In some locations where use appeared to be trending down, new data suggests the trend was false, due perhaps to a faulty counter, poor counter placement, or temporary factors such as deep snow pack. In locations indicating that use is decreasing, the levels are very modest. There are no discernable geographic trends but there is a correlation between trends and overall use levels: no High Use sections showed Decreased or Stagnant trends.

Overall User Numbers The IR counters produced a total of 188,365 trips in 2017. This number multiplied by 0.7 (to convert trips to users) equals 131,856, Multiplying this by 3.85 (to extrapolate over the entire system) equals 507,646. Multiplying this by 1.25 (to extrapolate for the entire year) produces a total of 634,555 users in 2017. The estimate for total number of users in 2016 was 404,679. The 2016 data was based on counter coverage of 78.2 miles of the trail, while the 2017 data is based on coverage of only 51.7 miles. Weighting each total user number by the amount of trail covered each year produces a weighted average of 496,170 users each year. Therefore, the estimate that the TRT System sees about 400,000 users annually appears to be low since it is unlikely that use increased by 25% in a single year. An estimate of about 500,000 annual users may be more accurate. This number should be viewed in the context of visitation to the region as a whole. The Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit reports over 5.7 million annual visits and many of those visitors choose to walk, hike, or bike on the unit’s 300 miles of non-motorized trails. Since the TRT system makes up more than half of the non-motorized trail miles on the Unit, it is not unreasonable to expect about half a million visitors to that system annually.

Such high visitation suggests that the TRT system is an essential part of the trail network both in the Basin and in the larger, regional context. The data indicate that the TRT system should be viewed as critical recreation infrastructure.

14

Page 18: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

BICYCLE COUNTERS

ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

Restricted Access Area Incursions In order to answer the question “How many mountain bikes trespass on the PCT south of Echo Summit and north of Meiss

Meadows?” data from two MB counters placed south of Showers Lake and north of the PCT/TRT southern junction near Meiss Meadows and south of Echo Summit. The counters recorded data in the same time period over 91 days from early July to early October. The collected data were analyzed to determine average daily trips and trends such as time of day and day of the week that the counts were recorded.

MB COUNTER RESULTS

Restricted Access Area Incursions Data on mountain bike incursions into restricted access areas is summarized in Table 4. Both areas monitored saw much lower mountain bike use than on the sections monitored in 2016 where bicycle use is restricted on the TRT. Mount Rose Wilderness saw an average of 8.4 daily bicycle trips while the section between Hobart Road and Spooner Summit saw 8.9. The data suggest that very few bicycles trespass on this section of the trail, perhaps due to the lack of loop options in the northern and southern areas of the trail between Meiss Meadow and Echo Summit. However, no data was collected for the trail between Bryan Meadow and Sayles Canyon, which does provide a loop option and where bicycle trespass may be much more prevalent. TABLE 4: Mountain bike incursions in restricted access areas

Location Number of Incursions ADT

Showers Lake South 115 1.3

Echo Summit South 103 1.1

Table 5 summarizes the temporal trends of mountain bike incursions into restricted access areas. Data was sorted by day of the week and by whether the counts occurred in daylight hours (7AM to 7PM) or darkness (7PM to 7AM). Sorting data by day of the week can give some estimate of whether the riders are locals (who tend to avoid the crowds on the weekends and ride during the week) or visitors (who tend to visit on weekends). Sorting data by time of day can give some estimate as to whether the incursions are meant to be clandestine (daylight incursions are much more obvious and are more likely to lead to encounters with other users.) Anecdotal reports indicate that some users who knowingly trespass, particularly into designated Wilderness areas or on the PCT, do so at night to avoid detection.

The data show that close to half the incursions occur on weekends at both locations, suggesting that visitors who are unaware or unconcerned with the

03

15

Page 19: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

use restriction may be responsible for a large percentage of the incursions at these sites. 51.3% of incursions south of Showers Lake are on the weekends while 45.6% from Echo Summit South are. This is higher than all the sites monitored in 2016, except for Hobart Road South which saw 57.1% of incursions on weekends.

The data also indicate that virtually all incursions happen during daylight hours at both of the 2017 sites. This is in contrast to the sites monitored in 2016 which saw between 3.4% and 7.1% of incursions happening under cover of darkness, The data seem to support the conclusion that local traffic plays a relatively small role in trespassing on these sections of the PCT compared to other restricted access sites on the TRT, and that overall there is not a significant problem with bikes trespassing on this section of the trail.

TABLE 5: Temporal trends of mountain bike incursions in restricted access areas

Location

Percent of Traffic on Each Day of the Week

Percent of Traffic Each Time of Day

Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Daylight Darkness

Showers Lake South

19.1 5.2 11.3 9.6 12.2 10.4 32.2 100 0

Echo Summit South

23.3 12.6 8.7 5.8 8.7 18.5 22.3 99.4 0.6

Western Blue Flax near Galena Falls.

16

Page 20: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

04

NEXT STEPS

LESSONS LEARNED

The lessons learned from the Trail Counter Program in 2017 can help to inform the evolution of the program as it moves forward. The lessons learned this year are as follows:

1) Counters should be installed extremely carefully by those with thorough

training. Even so, about 1/3 to 1/4 of the counters are likely to fail or partially

fail in the field,

2) Counter location plans should include the unique identifying number of each

counter, so that counters that fail or partially fail repeatedly for unknown

reasons can be culled from the stock, and

3) All counters should be installed before July 1 and should remain in place at least

until the end of September.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 2018 & BEYOND

In order to continue the development of a robust Trail Counter Program both specific recommendations for 2018 and general goals for the years beyond are outlined in this section. Based on the results of this report, the specific recommendations for 2018 are as follows (note that some counters will collect data that can be useful for multiple purposes but are only listed once in following recommendations):

IR counters should be installed in the following locations to determine pre- and/or post-construction use levels:

1) In the Martis Peak area between the two road walks. and

2) On the Waterfall Trail at Mount Rose Summit North in the location used in 2016,

IR counters should be installed in the following locations to develop trend data:

1) At Spooner South in the same location used in 2016 and 2017.

IR counters should be installed in the following locations to collect additional data on trends that defied expectations:

1) Tahoe City North in the same location used in 2016.

IR counters should be installed in the following locations to expand knowledge on use levels in where no benchmark data has been collected thus far:

1) East of the Picnic Rock Vista Spur and west of the Martis Trailhead,

2) In the Mount Rose Wilderness east of the Eastern Gray Lake Trail junction,

3) Between the Galena Waterfall and the Mt Houghton spur trail,

4) In the Spooner backcountry between Tunnel Creek and Christopher’s Loop,

5) Between of Christopher’s Loop and the Marlette Peak Loop

17

Page 21: 2017 - Tahoe Rim Trail · counters in various places within the Tahoe Rim Trail system. In 2017, 31 counters were deployed, and the data collected have been analyzed. In general,

6) North of the Kingsbury North Connector junction,

7) South of the Kingsbury North Connector junction,

8) On the southeastern portion of the Daggett Loop,

9) North of Star Lake,

10) South of Star Lake,

11) North of the southern PCT/TRT junction south of Round Lake, and

12) Between Bryan Meadow and Sayles Canyon.

MB counters should be installed in areas where bicycle use is restricted in the northeast and southwest portion of the trail including:

1) In Mt Rose Wilderness near the western boundary,

2) In Mt Rose Wilderness on the Incline Lake Trail just south of its intersection

with the TRT,

3) In Mt Rose Wilderness near the eastern boundary, and

4) Between Bryan Meadow and Sayles Canyon.

This plan would not require the purchase of additional IR or MB counters.

The general goals for 2018 and beyond are:

1) Finalize counter locations for the 2018 season prior to the close of the April

Trail Operations Committee meeting,

2) Retrieve the IR and MB counters left in the field during 2017 sometime after

September 30, 2018 but before the end of the year,

3) Leave several IR counters in place throughout the winter to evaluate off-season

trail use, placing them so as to avoid being covered by snow,

4) Evaluate the possibility of installing permanent counters in locations where

data collection will be consistently valuable,

5) Though currently prohibitively expensive, monitor the cost of counters that

allow for remote access to data, and

6) Utilize the trail use and trend data to leverage additional funding, resources

and improvements to the TRT system.

View north of Barker Pass

18