FEATURE ARTICLE

2018 R&D Trends Forecast Results from the Innovation Research Interchange’s Annual Survey After last year’s muted response, this year’s survey reveals a return of optimism.

Innovation Research Interchange

Each year, Innovation Research Interchange (IRI), formerly the Industrial Research Institute, asks R&D and innovation leaders about their actual activity and R&D budgets in the past year and their expectations and projected R&D invest-ment levels for the year ahead. The survey also explores the geographical dispersion of R&D facilities, the top concerns of R&D managers, their views about a variety of macro trends, and the factors leading to variance between actual and projected spending levels for the year.

In the 2016 survey, respondents reported expecting a period of inertia in 2017 or at least a slowing of the pre-vious year’s growth. This year’s survey, administered in late 2017 to ask about 2018 expectations, reveals a return to the optimistic sentiment seen in the 2015 forecast. The overall sense of this year’s results is that energy is high, with sur-vey participants expecting to create new technologies and new businesses, hire more staff, and invest more heavily in training that staff for the demands of an ever-changing marketplace.

This year, the analysis is based on data from 95 respondent organizations, 63 of which are IRI member organizations. Some respondents left some questions unanswered; the average number of responses to each question on the survey is approximately 86. Due to the changing membership of IRI and the voluntary nature of the survey, the mix of companies represented fluctuates each year. However, we believe there are enough responses from a large enough cross-section of industries to provide reliable insight into general trends.

Profile of Participants The 95 companies participating come from diverse industry segments (Figure 1) and are mostly medium to large corporations (Table 1) with annual R&D investments averaging more than $50 million (Table 2). The majority of respondents have global reach; taken together, surveyed companies operate at least 378 labs outside the United States, spread across 49 countries. China continues to host the largest share of these labs, with 45 companies reporting labs located there, followed by Germany (33), the UK (25), India (21), France (19), and Canada (18).

Expectations for R&D Investment The data collected by IRI’s R&D Trends Forecast survey is broken down into several categories designed to offer focused glimpses of specific areas of R&D investment. The survey’s first and primary goal is to map expectations regarding spending levels for the coming year. Historical data, viewed through the lens of IRI’s sea change index, gives this annualized snapshot a bit of context, and industry-specific analyses capture R&D spending expectations, and the forces driving them, for representa-tive industries. Analyses of R&D leaders’ views on the forces shaping the business ecosystem over the coming years add context to the other data.

After four consecutive years of mostly positive growth expectations, with a minor slowdown heading into 2017, the 2017 survey results show R&D spending expectations climbing again. Participants report a highly optimistic out-look going into 2018, with strong focus on investing in the creation of new technologies and new businesses and a rising interest in big data analytics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and all things digital.

Overall, 59 percent of respondents reported expecting an increase in R&D spending in 2018; only 29 percent reported anticipating little or no change, and 13 percent are expecting a decrease in total R&D spending (Table 3). Breaking spend-ing projections down by focus reveals significant interest in support for new business ventures, with 67 percent of respondents expecting an increase in spending in this category and only 2 percent expecting a decrease. Support for existing businesses is expected to take a hit this year, with

none defined

Innovation Research Interchange (IRI) is an inclusive membership organ-ization with nearly 200 global members in private-sector companies and federally funded laboratories. Founded in 1938, we lead and advance the field of innovation management by creating contemporary practices. Some of the world’s most widely adopted models—including open innovation, the front end of innovation, and Stage-Gate—were born from the work of our members. We value strength in cooperation and partner with other organizations at the forefront of developments in innovation management, creating a hub for all to convene and contribute in an experimental, non-competitive, and noncommercial environment. For more information about IRI, visit www.iriweb.org

DOI: 10.1080/08956308.2018.1399021 Copyright © 2018, Innovation Research Interchange. Published by Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved.

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most respondents (53 percent) expecting no change and 29 percent expecting a decrease in financial support; only 12 percent reported expecting an increase in support for existing business. Directed basic research, a spending category that historically gets little support, surprisingly saw more expectations for growth than decline this year (19 percent versus 12 percent, respectively), although most

respondents expect funding to remain unchanged (47 percent). Respondents indicated that funding for technical or customer services is also expected to remain unchanged in 2018.

We asked survey respondents to evaluate the impact of several policy changes in the United States and elsewhere on their R&D budgets. For the most part, respondents did not see these policy shifts as having much impact on their budgets; most reported they anticipated no effect on 2018 spending. However, changes in environmental policies and a relax-ation of some business regulations were seen as likely to have a positive effect on business while changes in immigration policies, uncertainty caused by political transitions like Brexit (the United Kingdom’s likely

exit from the European Union), and an expected decline in US federal investment in R&D were seen as likely to have a more negative effect on businesses (Figure 2).

Finally, respondents indicated that they are expecting moderate growth in professional R&D staff hiring (80 percent expect hiring to increase or remain the same) and stronger growth in new graduate hiring (97 percent expect new graduate hiring to increase or remain the same). Two new questions on this year’s survey asked respondents about their expectations regarding investment in R&D staff training and development this year compared with 2017 and expectations for senior staff retirements relative to last year. In response to the first question, 89 percent of respondents indicated that they expect funding for training to increase or remain the same— perhaps a reflection of the increased hiring. In regards to expectations for retirement of senior staff, 91 percent of respondents expect an increase or no change from 2017; only 5 percent expect a relative decrease in retirements.

Trends Over Time Comparing the results of this survey with past years’ editions provides an invaluable view of trends as they emerge over time. These trends are visualized via IRI’s sea change index, which is calculated by subtracting the number of respondents who anticipate a negative change (reductions in spending of 0 percent or more) from the number who anticipate a positive change (increases in spending of 1 percent or more) and normalizing the data to a 100-point scale. The range of the index varies from � 100 to þ100 percent.

It is important to note that the trends visualized in the sea change index may run counter to the trends seen in the annual data, as the sea change index captures evolution over time rather than the snapshot provided by the annual analysis. This year, however, the annual data and the

TABLE 1. Respondent organizations by corporate revenue

Revenue* N

<1 3

1–10 0

11–100 1

101–1,000 18

1,001–5,000 37

5,001–10,000 15

10,001–50,000 12

50,001–100,000 5

>100,000 2

I don’t know 2 *in million US$

FIGURE 1. Respondents by industry

TABLE 2. Respondent organizations by R&D investment

R&D Investment* N

<1 0

1–5 9

6–10 6

11–50 23

51–100 14

101–500 24

501–1,000 6

>1,000 7

I don’t know 6 *in million US$

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trends over time data both suggest an overall positive sentiment in most spending categories, with a leveling off of highly optimistic sentiment over the past three years. Since 2015, the sea change for total R&D spending indicates a strong rise in optimism (Figure 3). This opti-mism continues going into 2018, although to a slightly lesser degree for overall R&D spending than for other categories. This picture supports the annual analysis, which also shows an overall positive sentiment; it also supports the notion that optimism is holding steady despite concerns about the state of innovation and the economy.

Breaking total R&D spending into its constituent parts provides a more detailed view of the changes taking place, showing where sentiment is changing and how (Figure 4). In this year’s survey, anticipated total R&D spending can be seen leveling off while anticipated spending on new business projects and directed basic research both show

positive upswings from last year. The big change in this year’s results is the large downturn in sentiment regarding support for existing businesses.

Trends by Industry Sector The survey asks for information about participants’ industry segment; the data are analyzed by industry segment to examine where the biggest changes are taking place and which factors are most affecting particular industries. To be included in the segmentation data, an industry sector must be represented by at least 5 percent of respondents. This year, qualifying industrial segments included chemicals (24 companies), food/beverage (11), industrial equipment (11), consumer products (7), con-struction companies (7), and government/nonprofit (6).

The data on spending across these segments largely align with the overall survey results, with a few exceptions

(Figure 5). One of those exceptions is in total spending. The overall sea change index for total R&D spending hovers just above þ40 percent, a highly positive rating, but the segmentation analysis shows consumer product and government/nonprofit organizations anticipating declines in 2018 R&D budgets. These two sectors show a similar downturn in sentiment around capital spending for R&D as well.

Segmentation also offers some interesting perspectives on the over-all data. Some trends appear to make a stronger showing when data are segmented by industry, skewing more strongly either positive or negative in particular industries. For instance, sentiment regarding sup-port for existing businesses is nega-tive in the overall data and in almost every segment, but industrial equipment manufacturers expect an increase in this category. Similarly, while there is rising optimism in most industrial segments, and in the sample as a whole (with the FIGURE 2. Anticipated effects of recent policy actions on 2018 R&D budgets

TABLE 3. Expectations for 2018 R&D spending relative to 2017

How do you expect 2018 to compare with 2017 with regard to. . . Increase Decrease No Change N/A Don’t know

Total R&D Expenditure 55%�� 14%� 28%�� 0%� 2%�

Capital Spending for R&D 28%�� 19%� 49%�� 0%� 4%�

Targeted R&D/Sales Ratio 19%�� 14%� 55%�� 7%� 5%�

Support for Existing Businesses 14%�� 29%� 53%�� 1%� 2%�

Support for New Business 67%�� 2%� 26%�� 1%� 4%�

Directed Basic Research 19%�� 12%� 47%�� 16%� 6%�

Technical Service/Customer Support 14%�� 12%� 69%�� 2%� 2%�

Training/Development of R&D Staff 27%�� 7%� 62%�� 1%� 2%�

Retirement of Senior Staff 49%�� 5%� 42%�� 1%� 2%��

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FIGURE 3. Sea change index for overall R&D spending, 2000–2018

FIGURE 4. Sea change index for R&D spending by type, 2000–2018

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FIGURE 5. Changes in sea change indices by industry

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exception of support for existing businesses), government and nonprofit organizations reported expecting a decline or no change in every category except the retirement of senior staff (which is not necessarily a positive data point). So while industry seems to have a highly optimistic out-look, government/nonprofit agencies appear to be strug-gling as we head into 2018.

Another segment that appears to be struggling is construc-tion. Although construction industry respondents report positive expectations for total R&D spending, capital spend-ing, and investments in R&D staff development, the industry appears to be stagnating in every other category, with little or no change expected across the other spending categories.

How Did We Do Last Year? In order to contextualize our annual forecast, we ask respondents about their actual R&D budgets for the previous year; we then compare these responses to the projections from last year’s survey. In this year’s round, almost half of the respondent companies (45 percent) saw no difference between their actual and projected 2017

R&D spending, but a third (34 percent) reported that actual budgets were higher than forecasted.

To help explain such variance, we ask respondents to indicate from a list of options the top three factors in budget changes. Changing busi-ness conditions was most often selected as most important in driving differences in projected versus actual budgets (Figure 6). A change in emphasis on growth and strategy changes emerged as the other lead-ing reasons for budget alterations. These are expected to top this list this year since the direction of change was positive. Lack of personnel, schedule delays, and lack of technical success would all be reasons for a decline in budgets. This year’s unex-pected increase in budgets would best be explained by changes in the market and in company strategy to

meet those changing conditions. Segmentation analysis shows a similar breakdown of primary factors across indus-tries (Table 4).

Collaboration In addition to spending expectations, the survey asks about participant expectations for five categories of R&D collabor-ation (Table 5). These responses allow us to see whether the market is trending toward or away from collaborative approaches and assess how much R&D organizations expect to work with other organizations, including universities and federal labs, in their efforts to innovate. The big picture for industry collaboration is overwhelmingly positive heading into 2018. The sea change index shows that respondents are more optimistic about growth in external collaborations of all kinds than they were last year (Figure 7).

One area worth highlighting is expectations for participa-tion in alliances and joint R&D ventures. This category has historically been the strongest indicator of industry collabor-ation trends, capturing each industry’s expectations for collaborative work on R&D projects. Over the previous two years, optimism in this category had halved, from

FIGURE 6. Factors in differences between projected and actual 2017 spending

TABLE 4. Most significant factors in differences between actual and projected 2017 spending, by industry

Changing business/

market conditions

Changed emphasis on growth

Strategy change

Lack of personnel

Schedule delays

Lack of technical success

Construction 57%� — — 29%� 14%� —

Consumer Products 72%� 14%� — 14%� — —

Food/Beverage 27%� 45%� 19%� — 9%� —

Government/Nonprofit 66%� — — — 17%� 17%�

Industrial Equipment 9%� 28%� 45%� 9%� 9%� —

Chemicals 30%� 26%� 9%� 13%� 22%� —

All 37%� 23%� 14%� 12%� 12%� 2%��

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þ40 percent to around þ20 percent; these data suggested a decline in sentiment towards collaboration. This year’s results, however, show participation in alliances and joint ventures rising again, surging to a five-year high of þ50 percent.

Analyzing collaboration data across industry segments reveals no significant differences from the overall picture (Figure 8). Several sectors appear to expect no real change in collaborative stances in 2018, but in most cases, the nature of the industry offers a strong potential explanation for the continued stability. The construction sector, for example, shows little change in expectations for contracts with federal labs or academia; as construction firms do not tend to rely on these institutions for R&D, this finding is not surprising. A similar explanation may account for the lack of change in expectations for spinoffs in both construc-tion companies and industrial equipment manufacturers. Both sectors work with long-term development cycles;

rarely has either experienced the emergence and scaling up of a new product in a short time.

Finally, the overall showing in sentiment toward contracts with federal labs was positive, but very few industrial segments reported expecting an increase in such contracts—but neither did any segment expect a decline in federal lab contracts. On the whole, sentiment toward collaboration is highly positive heading into 2018, among survey respondents as a whole and across industrial sectors.

Global R&D To track shifting global investment trends, we ask survey respondents in which countries their organizations maintain R&D facilities. These data show that trends toward an increasingly globalized R&D approach continue. In 2017, responding organizations have labs in every region of the globe (Table 6), and in nearly 50 countries

TABLE 5. Expectations for 2018 collaboration efforts relative to 2017

How do you expect 2018 to compare with 2017 with regard to. . . Increase Little to no change Decrease N/A I don’t know

Participation in R&D alliances 50%� 39%�� 0%�� 10%� 1%�

Participation in R&D consortia 26%� 56%�� 4%�� 12%� 2%�

Acquisition of IP through M&A 35%� 40%�� 1%�� 20%� 4%�

Contracts/grants with academia 37%� 48%�� 11%�� 4%� 0%�

Contracts with government labs 13%� 57%�� 6%�� 19%� 5%�

Crowdsourcing/Open innovation competitions 25%� 32%�� 1%�� 39%� 3%�

Creation of spinoffs based on developed technology 17%� 40%�� 0%�� 42%� 1%��

FIGURE 7. Sea change index for collaborative activities, 2000–2018

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FIGURE 8. Changes in sea change indices for collaborative activities by industry

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(Table 7). Most respondent organizations spend between 0 and 25 percent of their R&D budget outside the United States (Table 8). Taken together, these responses indicate that international R&D investments remain healthy and stable.

Top Concerns As a way to track emerging issues in R&D management, we ask respondents to rank their top concerns for the coming year—to name the things that keep them up at night,

indicating their top three choices from a list of common concerns. In this year’s data, as in the past six years, respon-dents reported as their most significant concern balancing their organizations’ short- and long-term R&D objectives (Figure 9).

Determining the categories that factor most heavily into the concerns of R&D leaders beyond this clear leader, however, is somewhat tricky. In this portion of the survey, each respondent is given three votes, one for each of his or her top three concerns. Each concern listed therefore has four numbers associated with it in the data: the number of respondents who named that item their top concern, the number who said it was their second highest concern, the number who said it was their third highest concern, and the total number of votes across all three possible rankings. These data provide a nuanced view of R&D leaders’ concerns. For instance, building and main-taining an innovation culture attracted the second highest number of votes overall (after balancing short- and long-term objectives), but it was quite low on the list of top concerns, attracting only about 7 percent of all “top concern” votes. Likewise, integrating technology planning and business strategy comes in third overall but just fourth in “top concern” votes. The category that drew the second most votes for top concern, gaining senior management support for tech innovation, is fifth in terms of overall votes. Identifying disruptive technology ranks third in top concern votes but sixth overall. Thus, while it may appear at first glance that innovation culture is the second most common top concern among R&D managers, deeper analysis reveals a more complex picture. Gaining top management support for new innovations and identifying disruptive technologies both factor quite high on the list of top concerns but received fewer overall votes and so appear in the analysis as less significant than they might actually be.

Given observed trends and concerns in recent research around big data, hyperconnectivity, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, the Internet of Things (IoT), and related technology issues, a new category was added to this list in this year’s survey—updating IT infrastructure and data security measures. Interestingly, this item attracted very little attention from R&D leaders, ranking third from the bottom on the list of major concerns. It may be that R&D leaders feel these updates are outside their domain of work.

To provide deeper insight into this aspect of our analysis, we segmented the data on top concerns by industry

TABLE 6. Location of R&D labs by region

Region N

Western Europe 139

Eastern Europe & Russia 16

Middle East & North Africa 12

East & Southeast Asia 97

South America 23

North & Central America 118

Scandinavia & Baltics 14

Oceana 43

Africa 3

Total 465

TABLE 7. Number of organizations maintaining R&D labs by country

Country N Country N

United States 87 Switzerland 5

China 45 Indonesia 4

Germany 33 Austria 3

United Kingdom 25 Chile 3

India 21 Denmark 3

France 19 Finland 3

Canada 18 Poland 3

Italy 16 Russia 3

Netherlands 16 Caribbean 2

Japan 15 Ecuador 2

Australia 13 Kenya 2

Singapore 13 Saudi Arabia 2

Brazil 12 Thailand 2

Mexico 11 Egypt 1

Belgium 10 Georgia 1

Spain 9 Greece 1

Ireland 8 Luxembourg 1

Malaysia 8 Norway 1

Israel 7 Portugal 1

South Korea 7 Romania 1

Sweden 7 South Africa 1

Taiwan 7 Turkey 1

Argentina 5 United Arab Emirates 1

Hungary 5 Venezuela 1

New Zealand 5 N = 95

TABLE 8. Percent of R&D spending outside the United States

%� N

0–10%�� 35%�

11–25%�� 26%�

26–50%�� 15%�

51–75%�� 6%�

76–100%�� 15%�

I don’t know 4%��

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(Table 9). This analysis lines up well with the overall analysis, exposing the lack of support for the factors that received the most overall votes but fewer “top concern” votes. Balancing short- and long-term R&D goals, the top factor in the overall analysis, received many votes across every segment, as did gaining senior management support for tech-based innovation and integrating technology planning and business strategy. But building and maintain-ing an innovation culture received no votes in any industry except industrial equipment and chemicals. Attracting, developing, and retaining talent received votes only in food/beverage organizations and chemical companies. By weeding out the other votes and focusing on the top concerns, this segmentation view highlights the primary concerns of R&D managers across industries. Those leading

concerns are not necessarily the same as the concerns identified in the overall sample.

Innovation Tactics In addition to the analysis of R&D leaders’ expectations for R&D invest-ments, this year’s survey introduced several new questions devised to tease out the tactics these companies use to innovate, as the choice of tactics can offer insight about how and where organizations see themselves growing. To establish context for these tactics, we first asked about two key factors, one internal and one external. First, we asked about expected R&D budgets over the next five years; a large majority of respondents (88 percent) reported expecting stable or increas-ing investment levels (Table 10).

We then asked about the technologies respondents believe will impact their organizations the most in three years. Unsurprisingly, the big buzzword technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, Internet of Things (IoT), and digital collaboration topped the list (Figure 10).

These responses indicate a general level of optimism about likely growth in R&D, as well as expectations that digital technologies will increasingly be incorporated into new products, services, and processes—both factors likely to influence the tactics organizations use to foster innov-ation. We asked respondents to indicate, from a list, what tactics they plan on using over the next three years. These responses suggest that R&D organizations will engage in a range of tactics, from more traditional in-house develop-ment programs and personnel expansion to various kinds

FIGURE 9. Respondents’ top concerns

TABLE 9. R&D managers’ top concerns, by industry

Construction Consumer Products

Food/ Beverage

Government/ Nonprofit

Industrial Equipment Chemicals All

Balancing short-/long-term objectives 17%� 14%� 11%� 33%� 30%� 27%�� 23%�

Building/maintaining innovation culture — — — — 10%� 18%�� 9%�

Integrating tech planning and biz strategy 33%� — 11%� — 10%� 14%�� 12%�

Attracting, developing, retaining talent — — 11%� — — 9%�� 5%�

Gaining mgmt support for tech innovation 17%� 14%� 44%� 33%� 30%� 5%�� 19%�

Identifying disruptive tech 17%� 29%� 22%� — 20%� 5%�� 14%�

Improving efficiency — 14%� — — — — 2%�

Managing innovation globally 17%� 14%� — — — 5%�� 5%�

Measuring R&D performance — 14%� — — — 5%�� 4%�

Complying with regulatory changes — — — — — 5%�� 2%�

Developing leadership — — — 33%� — — 2%�

Updating IT infrastructure and security — — — — — — 0%�

Improving knowledge management — — — — — 9%�� 4%�

Improving sustainability — — — — — — 0%��

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of partnerships and collaborations (Figure 11); other kinds of tactics, such as insourcing technology or outsourcing R&D, will remain less common. It is important to note that, without historical data on this set of questions, it is difficult to gauge what is normal behavior and what is exceptional. We will need additional years of data to gauge how organizations actually respond.

Conclusion Overall, R&D managers appear optimistic about R&D investment growth going into 2018, as they have for the

past three years. Year-over-year data across almost every spending category suggest generally positive trends. New business projects remain a key driver of investment, as they have been in the past; this year’s data reveal a strong rebound in sentiment around this category. Sentiment around collaboration activities is similarly positive, with optimism strengthening notably this year for every category, as are hiring expectations for both estab-lished R&D professionals and new graduates. Global investment patterns appear to be stable, with the total number of laboratories outside the United States holding steady.

Much of the data gathered about technology points to trends that are already widely visible, including the rise of big data analytics, virtual analysis and simulation tools, artificial intelligence, and the Inter-net of Things, among others. With-out historical data on the actions organizations take to innovate, it is difficult at this point to say how these emerging technology trends are shaping innovation tactics, but it seems likely that rapidly emerging new technologies will lead many organizations to look for partners to fill in knowledge and personnel gaps. This would help explain the surge in interest around industry and university collaborations. Sim-ultaneously, companies may be increasing in-house hiring and staff development not only to fill the holes left by departing senior staff but also to acquire knowledge and competency needed to navigate these new trends. More data over time will help fill in this picture. FIGURE 11. Top innovation tactics for the next three years

FIGURE 10. Most important technologies in the next three years

TABLE 10. R&D spending expectations for next five years

What is your outlook for your organization’s R&D spending over the next 5 years? %�of Respondents

Significant increase in spending 18%�

Slight increase in spending 42%�

Stable spending 28%�

Slight decrease in spending 8%�

Significant decrease in spending 4%��

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In general, this year’s data indicate rising optimism about R&D spending, collaboration, job creation, industry expansion, and an adoption of new emerging technologies even as it suggests that a traditional view of R&D as a largely in-house endeavor continues to hold sway. It may be that we are witnessing a change in how companies

innovate based on emerging technologies and attitudes towards collaboration, but we currently lack the data to support such a claim. Only time will tell.

Special thanks to Greg Holden, Business Writer and Social Media Manager at IRI, for distributing the surveys, collecting responses and analyzing the data, and writing this report.

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