2018 u.s. forage statistics 2018 national forage reviewjohn deere netwrap with tamatec+™...

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2018 U.S. forage statistics

more than 15,000 thousand tons

10,000 to 15,000 thousand tons



0 to 2,000 thousand tons

Total forage production

Total forage production is represented by the total of alfalfa, other hay, silage and greenchop production.

2018 national forage review

States that provided data to NASS were divided into the following regions:• Southwest: Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas• East: Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania• Northwest: Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming• Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin

For market reports updated monthly, visit www.progressiveforage.com/news/hay-market-reports

Alfalfa hay market trends (dollars per ton)Total corn silage production

Total other hay production

Total alfalfa hay production

Total greenchop production

more than 5,000 thousand tons3,000 to 5,000 thousand tons1,000 to 3,000 thousand tons100 to 1,000 thousand tons0 to 100 thousand tons




Midwest(average)

Northwest(average)

$184

$206

$205

$152

Southwest (average)

East (average)

Dec2017

July Aug Sept Oct DecJan2018

NovFeb AprMar JunMay$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

PricesIn 2018, U.S. average hay prices* continued the

long, slow climb from the lows seen in 2015-16.Alfalfa hay prices started the year stable and

moved higher, primarily driven by drought conditions in the Southwest. Local supply-demand and quality conditions affected state and regional prices, but average alfalfa prices eventually peaked in May at nearly $190 per ton before settling around $180 per ton for the last half of the year, pressured by a weak dairy economy, new-crop quality issues and trade wars and tariffs that put a crimp in exports. The 2018 average should be near $175 per ton, about $30 per ton more than 2017. Despite the improving markets, 2018 average prices had not reached the highs generated in 2011-14.

The timeline for price recovery in the “other” market has been longer, with changes more subdued. Average prices started January 2018 at seven-month highs, plateaued into summer, but then resumed a steady increase into fall and winter, reaching highs last seen in July 2014. Based on USDA monthly data, 2018 average prices should be near $127 per ton, up $6 per ton from 2017, but still well off the peak annual averages of about $140 per ton in 2013-14.

* Monthly average prices calculated by USDA are across all hay qualities. Among major hay-producing states, the range of monthly prices can vary by $100 per ton or more.

ProductionStatistically, almost all forage categories posted

production declines in 2018. Even where acreage increased slightly from 2017 (other hay and forage), lower yields were a drag on harvest totals. Compared to a year earlier:

• All dry hay: 2018 production was estimated at 124 million tons, down 4 percent. Area harvested was 52.8 million acres, up less than one percent; average yield, at 2.34 tons per acre, was down 0.09 ton.

• Alfalfa and alfalfa mixture dry hay: Production was estimated at 52.6 million tons, down 6 percent. Harvested area, at 16.6 million acres, was down 2 percent; average yield was estimated at 3.17 tons per acre, down 0.11 ton.

• All other dry hay: Production totaled 71.0 million tons, down 2 percent. Harvested area, at 36.2 million acres, was up 1 percent; average yield was estimated at 1.96 tons per acre, down 0.06 ton.

• Total forage: The USDA’s forage estimation program covers 17 states. Haylage and greenchop production are converted to 13 percent moisture, and combined with dry hay production to derive the total forage estimate. The 17-state total for all forage production was 79.8 million tons (41.9 million tons were produced from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures). All haylage and greenchop production was 29.6 million tons (19.1 million tons from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures).

• Corn silage: Production was estimated at 121 million tons for 2018, down 5 percent. The area harvested was estimated at 6.11 million acres, down 4 percent; average yield was down 0.1 ton, at 19.9 tons per acre.

• Sorghum silage: Production was estimated at 3.33 million tons, down 12 percent. Area harvested was estimated at 264,000 acres, down 6 percent; yield averaged 12.6 tons per acre, down 0.8 ton.

• New seedings of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures: At 2.22 million acres, the area newly seeded to alfalfa during 2018 was up less than 1 percent (11,000 acres) from 2017, which had been the lowest acreage devoted to new seeding since USDA started releasing estimates two decades ago.

• Hay stocks: All hay stored on U.S. farms on Dec. 1, 2018, totaled 79.1 million tons, down 6 percent from a year earlier. It marks the lowest December 1 hay stocks since the drought of 2012, and second-lowest inventory for that date since 1977.

Exports The outlook for 2018 started bright, but trade

wars created market barriers and openings for U.S. competitors, and government policies on both sides of the globe altered the U.S. hay export map. Higher U.S. hay prices and improved inventories among major buyers also had an impact.

Although U.S. alfalfa hay exports were steady in early 2018, they weren’t able to hit the volume peaks

achieved a year earlier. As trade tensions escalated in early July, China – the leading U.S. alfalfa market since 2014 – imposed a 25 percent import tariff, adding about $84 per metric to the price.

On the flip side, Saudi Arabia’s continued phase-out of water use for domestic forage production made it a more aggressive buyer of hay and hay-producing land. In September 2018, Saudi Arabia purchased more U.S. alfalfa than China – for the first time ever.

Heavy sales volumes of alfalfa to Japan supported export totals to end the year. So despite the headwinds, 2018 alfalfa hay exports were the second- highest annual total ever. And China and U.S. trade negotiators were talking to start 2018, creating optimism for 2019.

As they have been for years, Japan and South Korea remained the leading buyers of other hay from the U.S. However, higher prices and foreign competition left 2018 exports at the lowest annual level in more than a dozen years.

Weather and drought2018 started dry, with about 40 percent of U.S.

hay acreage and 32 percent of alfalfa acreage under drought conditions, the highest percentages since May 2013. Dry pockets affected Pennsylvania, the Northern Plains and the Southeast, with a large droughty swath covering major hay-producing areas from Illinois all the way to southern California.

Conditions improved incrementally in spring, although less so in alfalfa production areas. By mid-June, drought conditions affected about 21 percent of hay acreage and 23 percent of alfalfa acreage.

Changes were sporadic through summer. Continuing drought in the Southwest affected harvest quantity, while widespread rain elsewhere impacted quality and prices.

With hurricanes and tropical storms bringing heavy rains in autumn, only small windows of drought remained outside the Southwest.

The U.S. drought map changed little in November and December. Dry conditions covered all or most parts of western Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon and southern Washington. At the close of the year, about 10 percent of U.S. hay acreage and 17 percent of alfalfa acreage remained under drought conditions – far better than the year began.

2018 U.S. forage statistics

State ranking- total forage production

Legend

Jerome, ID — (800) 320-1424 or (208) 324-7513 Irvine, CA — (949) 253-4191 or (877) 532-4376

Beaver Falls, PA — (724) 601-8268Edgerton, WI — (608) 576-2580

United States274,580 -4.6%

52,634 -5.7% 70,966 -2%

16,608 +0.3% 36,231 +1.3%

2,221 +0.5% 121,361 -4.8%

52,839 +0.1% 6,113 -4.3%

4 New York16,234 +0.6%

24 720 13 2,024

17 300 12 920

95 3 8,455

14 1,220 2 445

+12%

Source: Crop Production 2018 Summary Report, USDA, NASS. Statistical ties are represented by the same numerical ranking.

Total U.S. forage acresin thousands of acres in thousands of tons

Total U.S. tons harvestedAll forage production(in thousands of tons)

State ranking- alfalfa yield

State ranking-alfalfa acres

Percentage increase/decrease of alfalfa new plantings

State ranking-total hay acres

Alfalfa yield (in thousands of tons)

Alfalfa acres(in thousands of acres)

Alfalfa new plantings(in thousands of acres)

2018 Total hay acres(in thousands of acres)

Percentage increase/decrease in forage production 2017-2018

State ranking-other hay yield

State ranking-corn silage yield

Other hay yield(in thousands of tons)

Other hay acres(in thousands of acres)

Corn silage acres(in thousands of acres)

Corn silage yield(in thousands of tons)

State ranking-other hay acres

State ranking-corn silage acres

38 Nevada1,340 -12.3%

19 870 39 288

24 185 35 180

21 41 182

35 365 41 7

-5%

3 Texas13,779 -3.2%

22 784 1 7,590

27 140 1 4,600

15 12 4,320

1 4,740 9 270

+50%

28 Vermont3,372 +15.6%

33 36 38 330

30 20 37 150

7 22 1,501

41 170 23 79

+75%

39 West Virginia1,131 -14.9%

32 38 26 884

32 15 22 520

3 40 209

31 535 40 11

+50%

45 New Jersey334 -6.4%

34 31 40 189

34 9 39 105

1 42 114

42 114 43 6

NC

46 New Hampshire321 -5.9%

40 9 46 60

38 4 45 35

1 37 252

46 39 38 12

NC

42 Maine748 +2.9%

35 23 42 185

33 10 40 100

2 34 540

43 110 33 27

8 Pennsylvania12,832 -19%

19 870 15 1,869

17 300 13 890

60 5 7,410

17 1,190 3 390

47 Delaware106 -42.7%

39 12 48 22

38 4 47 9

1 45 72

48 13 45 3

NC

21 Virginia5,105 -1.7%

30 120 8 2,420

28 40 10 1,100

10 15 2,565

18 1,140 16 135

-9%15 Kentucky

6,978 +1.6%28 450 3 4,638

26 145 5 1,750

20 21 1,890

9 1,895 21 90

+18%

41 Louisiana876 -17.4%

NA NA 28 836

NA NA 26 380

NA 48 40

34 380 47 2

NA

34 Arkansas2,231 -15.1%

41 8 11 2,160

40 3 9 1,200

1 46 63

16 1,203 45 3

NC

5 South Dakota12,381 +8.3%

4 3,763 12 2,025

2 1,750 8 1,500

170 8 5,940

2 3,250 5 360

+36%

27 Utah3,230 -20%

13 1,850 37 345

13 500 37 150

50 25 1,035

28 650 26 45

-17%

31 Wyoming2,945 -8.8%

15 1,593 29 800

11 590 23 500

35 33 552

19 1,090 34 23

17 Montana6,335 +20.9%

3 3,895 17 1,700

1 1,900 11 1,000

115 29 740

5 2,900 29 37

6 Idaho12,624 -0.3%

1 4,410 33 609

4 1,050 29 290

155 6 6,600

13 1,340 11 220

+24%

23 Oregon3,838 -10%

14 1,722 19 1,334

14 420 20 580

40 28 782

20 1,000 30 34

-38%

1 California18,356 -2.9%

2 4,278 18 1,404

9 620 27 360

95 2 9,900

21 980 5 360

-5%

13 Colorado7,801 +7.2%

7 2,482 23 1,139

7 730 16 690

85 13 4,180

11 1,420 13 190

4 New York16,234 +0.6%

24 720 13 2,024

17 300 12 920

95 3 8,455

14 1,220 2 445

+12%

43 Connecticut490 -2%

38 18 45 92

36 7 43 40

1 35 380

45 47 35 20

NC

44 Massachusetts357 -2.7%

37 19 44 98

34 9 42 70

1 38 240

44 79 38 12

NC

48 Rhode Island54 +12.5%

42 2 49 10

41 1 48 5

NA 47 42

49 6 47 2

NA

36 Maryland1,407 -8.3%

29 180 36 372

28 40 36 155

4 26 855

40 195 26 45

-50%

30 North Carolina3,010 +34.7%

35 23 10 2,187

37 6 15 810

1 27 800

25 816 25 50

37 Mississippi1,344 -15.5%

NA NA 21 1,239

NA NA 19 590

NA 43 105

30 590 41 7

NA

26 Illinois3,527 -32.3%

21 825 34 484

21 250 33 220

55 20 2,000

33 470 17 100

+175%

32 Alabama2,460 +8.4%

43 NA 9 2,380

48 NA 14 850

NA 44 80

24 850 44 5

NA

33 Georgia2,370 +0.5%

NA NA 16 1,740

NA NA 18 600

NA 31 630

29 600 31 30

NA

40 South Carolina941 -11.9%

NA NA 31 675

NA NA 31 270

NA NA 36 266

38 270 37 19

35 Florida1,498 +5.9%

NA NA 27 868

NA NA 30 280

NA 31 630

37 280 31 30

NA

19 Ohio6,366 -16.2%

18 1,085 20 1,271

15 350 17 620

35 14 3,200

22 970 15 160

-30%

12 Michigan9,618 -6.9%

17 1,416 35 396

11 590 33 220

100 7 5,950

26 810 7 340

2 Wisconsin23,485 -17.8%

12 1,927 24 1,026

6 820 21 540

310 1 13,400

12 1,360 1 670

+3%

14 Missouri7,373 -1.1%

26 648 2 4,760

19 270 3 2,800

30 24 1,300

4 3,070 17 100

NC

9 Minnesota11,945 -9.2%

11 2,052 25 1,025

8 720 23 500

130 4 7,480

14 1,220 7 340

-19%

7 Nebraska11,807 +13.6%

5 3,655 6 3,330

5 850 4 1,850

120 11 4,620

6 2,700 11 220

-20%

16 North Dakota6,969 +38.7%

6 2,499 14 1,920

3 1,470 9 1,200

95 16 2,550

7 2,670 14 170

-27%

18 Washington6,093 -7%

16 1,575 22 1,189

15 350 25 410

60 19 2,080

27 760 22 80

-14%

Other hay 36,231

Alfalfa 16,608

Silage 6,113

Greenchop 4,237

Combined total 63,189

Silage 20.0 121,361

Other hay 2.1 70,966

Alfalfa 3.3 52,634

Greenchop 7.1 29,619

Combined total 274,580

tons/acre

tons/acre

tons/acre

tons/acre

+15%

-13%

+21%

24 Arizona3,825 +6.9%

9 2,158 41 188

20 260 43 40

35 23 1,479

36 300 24 51

-42%

29 New Mexico3,022 -3.8%

23 752 43 180

25 160 41 90

30 18 2,090

39 250 20 95

+100%

10 Kansas10,795 -8.6%

10 2,135 7 2,625

10 610 5 1,750

55 10 5,265

8 2,360 3 390

-15%

20 Oklahoma5,341 -11.5%

27 621 4 4,500

23 230 2 3,000

30 39 220

3 3,230 35 20

+20%

11 Iowa9,122 -16.4%

8 2,294 30 704

9 620 28 320

105 9 5,535

23 940 9 270

+31%

+100%

+25%

25 Indiana3,482 -8.4%

24 720 32 662

22 240 31 270

40 17 2,100

32 510 17 100

NC

22 Tennessee4,953 +11.9%

31 66 5 4,165

30 20 7 1,700

2 30 722

10 1,720 28 38

-33%

NC

-25%

49 Alaska29 NA

NA NA 47 29

NA NA 46 22

NA 49 NA

47 22 NA 0

NA

2018 u.s. forage statistics 2018 national forage reviewjohn deere netwrap with tamatec+™...

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