2019 earnings presentation...presentation february 21, 2020. 2 ... summary of adjustments related to...
TRANSCRIPT
1
2019 earnings presentation
February 21, 2020
2
From time to time Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) makes written and verbal forward-looking statements. These are included in the Annual Report,periodic reports to shareholders, regulatory filings, press releases, Company presentations and other Company communications. Forward-looking statements aremade in connection with business objectives and targets, Company strategies, operations, anticipated financial results and the outlook for the Company, itsindustry, and the Canadian economy. These statements regarding expected future performance are “financial outlooks” within the meaning of National Instrument51-102. Please see the risk factors, which are set forth in detail in the Risk Management section of the 2019 Annual and Fourth Quarter Report, as well as theCompany’s other publicly filed information, which is available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) at www.sedar.com, for thematerial factors that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements. These risk factors are material risk factors a readershould consider, and include credit risk, liquidity and funding risk, structural interest rate risk, operational risk, investment risk, strategic risk, reputational risk,compliance risk and capital adequacy risk along with additional risk factors that may affect future results. Forward-looking statements can be found in the Report tothe Shareholders and the Outlook section in the 2019 Annual and Fourth Quarter Report. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as“will,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “should,” “estimate,” “plan,” “forecast,” “may,” and “could” or other similar expressions.
By their very nature, these statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainty, general and specific, whichmay cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are notlimited to, global capital market activity, changes in government monetary and economic policies, changes in interest rates, inflation levels and general economicconditions, legislative and regulatory developments, competition and technological change. The preceding list is not exhaustive of possible factors.
These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The Companypresents forward-looking statements to assist shareholders in understanding the Company’s assumptions and expectations about the future that are relevant inmanagement’s setting of performance goals, strategic priorities and outlook. The Company presents its outlook to assist shareholders in understandingmanagement’s expectations on how the future will impact the financial performance of the Company. These forward-looking statements may not be appropriate forother purposes. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time by it oron its behalf, except as required by securities laws.
Forward-looking statements
3
OverviewYousry Bissada, CEO
4
Helping Canadians build their financial future
Broker partners Mortgage customers
Oaken depositors Employees
5
2019: A year of growth and innovation
Continued value creation
through strategic return
of capital
Deposit growth
through our Oaken channel
Successful launch of first cross-
border RMBS
Launch of Ignite
Program and first
deliverables
Growth in originations and loans
under administration
6
Financial resultsBrad Kotush, CFO
7
Q4 highlights
$26.43
$29.33
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00
$26.00
$28.00
$30.00
Q4 2018 Q4 2019
Book value per share
62.1
57.3
50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0
Q4 2018 Q4 2019
Shares outstanding at year-end (millions)
1 See definition of Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share in the Company’s 2019 Annual and Fourth Quarter Consolidated Financial Report.
$35.8 $37.2
$41.2
$30.0 $32.0 $34.0 $36.0 $38.0 $40.0 $42.0
Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2019 Adjusted¹
Net income - millions
$0.46
$0.65 $0.72
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2019 Adjusted¹
Earnings per share
8
Q4 earnings per share increase driven by net interest income growth and share repurchases
0.46
0.17
0.25
(0.05)
(0.17) (0.01)0.65
0.07 0.72
Q4 2018 EPSShare repurchases
Net interest incomeNon-interest income
Non-interest expenseOther
Q4 2019 EPSAdj. for Ignite Program
Adjusted Q4 2019 EPS
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
9
Summary of adjustments related to Home Trust’s Ignite Program
Q4 2019 Q3 2019
Reported Adjustment for Ignite Program Adjusted1 Reported Adjustment for
Ignite Program Adjusted1
Net income (millions) $37.23 $3.92 $41.15 $39.02 $2.93 $41.95
Reported Adjustment for Ignite Program Adjusted1 Reported Adjustment for
Ignite Program Adjusted1
Earnings per share $0.65 $0.07 $0.72 $0.67 $0.05 $0.72
Efficiency ratio (TEB) 55.6% (4.3%) 51.3% 51.3% (3.5%) 47.8%
Return on equity (annualized) 9.0% 0.9% 9.9% 9.5% 0.7% 10.2%
Resulting from changes in estimated useful life of legacy IT investment and implementation expenses
1 See definition of Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings per Share, Adjusted Efficiency Ratio and Adjusted Return on Shareholders’ Equity under Non-GAAP Measures in the Company’s 2019 Annual and Fourth Quarter Consolidated Financial Report.
10
Single-family residential originations for 2019
$3,757.7 $4,179.9
$237.4 $197.4
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2018 2019
Milli
ons
Classic single-family Accelerator single-family
$1,112.1 $1,120.5
$48.0 $86.3
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Q4 2018 Q4 2019
Milli
ons
Classic single-family Accelerator single-family
Quarterly Full year
+11.2%+0.8%
11
Loan growth
$16.3 $16.5
$16.7
$17.0 $17.2
$14.0
$14.5
$15.0
$15.5
$16.0
$16.5
$17.0
$17.5
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Total loan portfolio (billions)
+5.5% y/y
12
Continuing improvement in net interest margin
2.02%
1.91%
2.03%1.99% 2.01%
2.09%
2.22%
2.31%
1.85%
1.90%
1.95%
2.00%
2.05%
2.10%
2.15%
2.20%
2.25%
2.30%
2.35%
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Net interest margin (TEB1)
1 Net interest margin is a measure of profitability of assets. Net interest margin (TEB) is calculated by taking net interest income, on a taxable equivalent basis, divided by the average total assets.
Higher yields on most asset
classes
Benefit of favourable asset
mix
13
Oaken deposits continue to grow with focus on GICs
Oaken now accounts for 24.6% of deposits with majority in the form of term deposits
$10.2 $10.6 $10.4 $10.2 $10.2
$2.7 $2.9 $3.1 $3.3 $3.4
$12.9 $13.5 $13.5 $13.5 $13.6
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Broker and Oaken deposits in $billions
Broker Oaken Total
$2.8
$0.6
$3.4
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
Q4 2019
Oaken deposits by product in $billions
GICs Savings accounts Total
16.4%
83.6%
14
Update on RMBS
Ø First transaction has been well-received by the market
Ø Credit, maturity and prepayment experience in line with initial estimates
Ø Announcement of new RMBS issuer is positive for market development
Ø We plan to be a serial issuer of RMBS going forward
15
High Beacon scores and low average loan to value measurements
Credit quality of our single-family residential mortgage book is evidence of our sustainable risk culture
70.9%61.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
New uninsured single-familyresidential mortgages originated in
Q4
All uninsured single-family resident ialmortgages
Weighted average loan to value
696 704
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Classic originations during Q4 Total Classic portfolio
Weighted-average Beacon score
16
Net non-performing loans and NPL allowance
Results in 2018 and 2019 are reported under IFRS 9 and results in 2017 are reported under IAS 39 which may limit comparability to prior periods.
25.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
NPL Allowance as a Percentage of Gross NPL
0.44%
0.31%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%0.35%
0.40%
0.45%
0.50%
Q1 201
6
Q2 201
6
Q3 201
6
Q4 201
6
Q1 201
7
Q2 201
7
Q3 201
7
Q4 201
7
Q1 201
8
Q2 201
8
Q3 201
8
Q4 201
8
Q1 201
9
Q2 201
9
Q3 201
9
Q4 201
9
Net Non-Performing Loans as a % of Gross Loans
Net Non-Performing Single-Family Residential Loans as a % ofGross Single-Family Residential Loans
17
• Provisions for credit losses of 0.09% of gross loans on an annualized basis
• Net write-offs of 0.04% of gross loans on an annualized basis
• Single-family residential mortgage net write-offs remain low at 0.01% in the quarter and 0.02% for the year
Stable provisions for credit losses and write-offs
Results in 2018 and 2019 are reported under IFRS 9 and results in 2017 are reported under IAS 39 which may limit comparability to prior periods.
0.09%
0.04%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Provisions (annualized) as a % of gross loans
Net write-offs (annualized) as a % of gross loans
18
Liquidity risk managementLiquid assets and near-term maturities
Aggregate available liquidity of $1.87 billion at the end of Q4 including $500 million
undrawn credit facilityNear-term loan maturities exceed deposit
maturities
$1,376
$1,288 $1,358
$1,323
$1,341 $1,366
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Milli
ons
Liquid assets at carrying value
As % of Total assets
$2.6
$8.1
$2.7
$0.7
$14.1
$1.7
$4.7 $4.6
$1.9
$12.9
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
0-3months
3-12months
1-3 years Over 3years
Total
Billio
ns
Non-Securitized Contractual Loan Maturities
Contractual Fixed Term Deposit Maturities
19
Capital and leverage metrics1
Opportunity for strategic capital deployment in line with internal risk model
Leverage is within internal risk limits and well above regulatory requirements
7.00%
17.64%
REGULATORY MINIMUM
ACTUAL
1 Ratios are based on Home Trust Company’s consolidated financial position.
Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 at Q4 2019 Leverage ratio at Q4 2019
3.00%
7.07%
REGULATORYMINIMUM
ACTUAL
20
Returning capital to shareholders
2018 Substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) completed with 18.2 million shares repurchased at $16.50 per share
2019 Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) completed with 4.8 million shares repurchased at average cost per share of $19.85
2020 Substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) completed with 4.4 million shares repurchased at $34.15 per share
2020 Normal Course Issuer Bid launched for up to 5.3 million shares
$300 million
$94 million
$150 million
21
Questions?
22
Q4 Financial highlightsQ4 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2018 Sequential change Year-over-year
change
Originations (millions) $1,619.9 $1,545.4 $1,614.2 4.8% 0.4%
Revenue (millions) $123.8 $116.6 $108.4 6.1% 14.2%
Net interest margin (TEB) 2.31% 2.22% 1.99% 9 bps 32 bps
Provisions as % of Gross Loans (annualized) 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0 bps (1) bps
Efficiency ratio (TEB) – reported 55.6% 51.3% 51.3% 430 bps 430 bps
Efficiency ratio (TEB) – adjusted1 51.3% 47.8% 51.3% 350 bps 0 bps
Net income (millions) – reported $37.2 $39.0 $35.8 (4.6%) 4.0%
Net income (millions) – adjusted1 $41.2 $42.0 $35.8 (1.9%) 14.9%
Earnings per share – reported $0.65 $0.67 $0.46 (3.0%) 41.3%
Earnings per share – adjusted1 $0.72 $0.72 $0.46 0% 56.5%
Return on equity (annualized) – reported 9.0% 9.5% 8.1% (50) bps 90 bps
Return on equity (annualized) – adjusted1 9.9% 10.2% 8.1% (30) bps 180 bps1 See definition of Adjusted Efficiency Ratio, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings per Share and Adjusted Return on Shareholders’ Equity under Non-GAAP Measures in the Company’s 2019 Annual and Fourth Quarter Consolidated Financial Report.
23
2019 Financial highlights
2019 2018 Year-over-year change
Originations (millions) $5,658.0 $5,439.4 4.0%
Revenue (millions) $455.5 $418.9 8.8%
Net interest margin (TEB) 2.16% 1.99% 17 bps
Provisions as % of Gross Loans 0.12% 0.13% (1) bps
Efficiency ratio (TEB) – reported 54.9% 52.0% 290 bps
Efficiency ratio (TEB) – adjusted1 51.3% 52.0% (70) bps
Net income (millions) – reported $136.0 $132.6 2.6%
Net income (millions) – adjusted1 $148.0 $132.6 11.6%
Earnings per share – reported $2.29 $1.66 38.0%
Earnings per share – adjusted1 $2.49 $1.66 50.0%
Return on equity (annualized) – reported 8.2% 7.7% 50 bps
Return on equity (annualized) – adjusted1 8.9% 7.7% 120 bps1 See definition of Adjusted Efficiency Ratio, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings per Share and Adjusted Return on Shareholders’ Equity under Non-GAAP Measures in the Company’s 2019 Annual and Fourth Quarter Consolidated Financial Report.
24
2019 Financial highlights
Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2018 Sequential change
Year-over-year change
Total loan portfolio (billions) $17.15 $16.99 $16.26 0.9% 5.5%
Loans under administration (billions) $22.96 $22.97 $22.93 (0.1%) 0.1%
Assets under administration (billions) $24.79 $24.78 $24.68 0.1% 0.5%
Net non-performing loans as % of gross loans 0.44% 0.49% 0.47% (5) bps (3) bps
CET1 ratio1 17.64% 19.67% 18.94% (203) bps (130) bps
Book value per share $29.33 $28.64 $26.43 2.4% 11.0%
Shares outstanding (millions) 57.3 57.3 62.1 (0.0) (4.7)1CET1 ratio relates to the Company’s operating subsidiary, Home Trust Company