1

2020 Danbury Public Schools Task Force Options for the Future

February 11, 2020

2

Introduction

Enrollment Growth and Areas of Need Short and Long-Term Facilities/ Enrollment Options Elementary Middle High

Recommendations Next Steps

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High Model

PK-12th Projection - High

Prepared low, medium and high projections Using high projection model for space planning purposes due to most recent high

levels of in-migration Prepared PK projections

Based on 8-year trend in annual growth continuing for the next three years (in line with projected years of elementary growth

Held static from 2023-24 on, as funding and policies may change

YearBirth Year

Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PKPK-12 Total

K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

2019-20 2014 1,052 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 286 11,958 11,672 5,538 2,736 3,3982020-21 2015 1,067 919 938 921 939 916 934 934 968 966 933 880 798 861 311 12,218 11,907 5,567 2,868 3,4722021-22 2016 1,140 982 932 955 926 955 921 923 966 996 1,046 843 873 811 338 12,467 12,129 5,671 2,885 3,5732022-23 2017 1,074 925 996 948 960 942 960 910 954 994 1,079 945 836 888 367 12,704 12,337 5,731 2,858 3,7482023-24 2018 974 839 938 1,014 953 977 947 949 941 982 1,077 975 937 850 367 12,746 12,379 5,668 2,872 3,8392024-25 2019 974 839 851 955 1,020 970 982 936 981 968 1,064 973 967 953 367 12,826 12,459 5,617 2,885 3,9572025-26 2020 1,046 901 851 866 960 1,038 975 971 968 1,010 1,049 962 965 983 367 12,866 12,499 5,591 2,949 3,9592026-27 2021 1,042 898 914 866 871 977 1,044 964 1,004 996 1,094 948 954 981 367 12,878 12,511 5,570 2,964 3,9772027-28 2022 1,022 881 911 930 871 886 982 1,032 997 1,033 1,079 989 940 970 367 12,868 12,501 5,461 3,062 3,9782028-29 2023 1,012 872 894 927 935 886 891 971 1,067 1,026 1,119 975 981 956 367 12,867 12,500 5,405 3,064 4,0312029-30 2024 1,019 878 884 910 932 951 891 881 1,004 1,098 1,111 1,011 967 997 367 12,882 12,515 5,446 2,983 4,086

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PK Trends

Increasing trend of identified special needs preschoolers Average annual growth of 8.6% in identified special needs preschoolers over the

last 8 years In line with average annual estimated in-migration rate to the District of 8.4% over the last 8

years Projections reflect continued growth in PK programs – estimate an additional 4

classrooms from current (District already implementing 1 additional classroom next year)

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Special Needs Preschool Identification Trends

Births 3 years previous Births 4 years previous SPED PKSources: Danbury Public Schools and CT DPH

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K-5 Projected Enrollments - High

Peak enrollment in K-5 projected for 2022-23 at 193 more than current Projected to be above current enrollment levels for the next seven years

5,538 5,5675,671 5,731 5,668 5,617 5,591 5,570

5,461 5,405 5,446

5,538

4,750

4,900

5,050

5,200

5,350

5,500

5,650

5,800

5,950

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Danbury Public Schools Elementary (K-5) Projections

K-5 Projected Total Current Enrollment

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Elementary Growth

In-migration of students into the Downtown area

Concerns for growth due to capacity at: Ellsworth Hayestown Mill Ridge Park

District has already had to close grades to new registrants at these schools due to lack of capacity

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Elementary Growth

Measured neighborhood trends in two areas of the Downtown to better understand potential options for short-term solutions to overcrowding

Eastern side of Downtown growing faster, higher rate of in-migration

Western side growing, but not as fast

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Downtown East 8% growth in K-5 students over the last

four years in Downtown East

10-14% of grades 1-5 residing in the area were identified as new to district over each of the last three years

New to district in area for grades 1-5:

2017-18: 84

2018-19: 79

2019-20: 115

Downtown East K-5 enrollment projected to grow 2% over the next three years

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Downtown West 6% growth in K-5 students over the

last four years in Downtown West 7-12% of grades 1-5 residing in the

area were identified as new to district over each of the last three years New to district in area for grades 1-5:

2017-18: 78 2018-19: 55 2019-20: 92

Downtown West projected to grow only .3% over the next three years

Greater level of churn in students in Downtown West

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Elementary Options

2020-21 Shift 7 existing classrooms of early childhood SPED and PK programming from

Hayestown and Great Plain to leased spaces Creates additional K-5 capacity:

Great Plain: 95 (25 per 4 classrooms, 95% utilization); for a total k-5 capacity of about 375

Hayestown: 71 (25 per 3 classrooms, 95% utilization); for a total k-5 capacity of about 470 (excluding EAS/Kindergarten program which occupies 2 classrooms)

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Elementary Options2020-21 continued Use additional capacity to alleviate enrollment burden at Ellsworth, Hayestown,

Mill Ridge and Park Close new 1st-5th grade enrollments at those schools New registrants from Downtown East area assigned to Great Plain

Estimate about 110-115 K-5 students Some students will shift from Hayestown to Great Plain

Assign about 60-65 new registrants from Downtown West to Hayestown Estimate about 85-90 total new students in sending area

2021-22 Continue to close new 1st – 5th grade registrations at Ellsworth, Hayestown, Mill

Ridge and Park, and send to Hayestown and Great Plain via Downtown East and Downtown West sending areas

Maintain leased spaces

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Elementary Options2022-23 Renovated Ellsworth Annex (Osborne Street facility) opens - 7 additional

classrooms 4 classrooms for early childhood SPED programs (1 currently at Osborne St. and 3 to

be shifted out of leased space) 3 classrooms for Ellsworth K-5 overflow use Re-evaluate Downtown sending areas – continue as needed to relieve growth

pressures at Ellsworth, Hayestown, Mill Ridge and Park

2023-24 Maintain Ellsworth Annex, Downtown sending areas and leased spaces as above

2024-25 Maintain Ellsworth Annex, Downtown sending areas and leased spaces as above

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Ellsworth Annex

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Elementary Options2025-26

15 newly constructed additional classrooms and program area open at Great Plain

Shift 15 early childhood SPED and PK classes out of leased spaces and into Great Plain (incorporates anticipated growth of 4 classrooms from current year)

End leases

Maintain 4 classrooms of early childhood SPED at Ellsworth Annex

Re-evaluate need for Downtown sending areas

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Great Plain

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Elementary Summary

Hayestown

Great Plain

New Lease: 8 Classrooms3+4+1 for

growth

Opens a total of 7 classrooms at Hayestown and Great Plain

for K-5 growth in the Downtown – establish

sending areas

Maintain Sacred Heart Lease: 7

Classrooms4-SPED3-PreK

Great Plain15 CR Addition Opens in 25-26

(8+4+3 for growth)

Ellsworth Annex(Osborne St)

8 SPED CR

7 CR Addition Opens in 2022-23(1 Ex. PreK + SPED Growth + K-5 Ellsworth)

Once Great Plain addition opens in 2025-26(3 PreK CR + 1 Ex. PreK CR + 3 CR for

Ellsworth K-5)

Long Term Solutions (2025-26 and Beyond) Renovations and Additions

Short Term Solutions (2020-21 through 2025-26)Leasing Options

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6-8 Projected Enrollments - High

Projecting enrollment to surpass current levels by at least 120 students over the next five years

Projected enrollment peak in 2027-28 and 2028-29 of about 325 more middle schoolers than this year

2,736

2,868 2,885 2,858 2,872 2,8852,949 2,964

3,062 3,0642,983

2,736

2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

3,100

3,250

3,400

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Danbury Public Schools Middle (6-8) Projections

6-8 Projected Total Current Enrollment

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Middle School Options

Long Term Options:1. Add 13 modular classrooms to each of the 3 existing middle schools2. Build 13 additional classrooms at Broadview

Expand existing program and redistrict Or, open academy with unique programming

3. Build 13 additional classrooms at Westside

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Middle School Options Long-Term Option 1

Add modular classrooms to each of the three middle school buildings for occupancy in 2025-26 to distribute additional students

Each school’s capacity increases by about 85-110 students

No redistricting required

Magnet program expansion

However, determined infeasible due to:

Soils not supportive of modular classrooms at Rogers Park

Lack of site space at Westside (can only accommodate up to only 2 modular classrooms)

Therefore, unable to proportionally distribute the modular classrooms

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Middle School Options

Long-Term Option 2

Construct 13 additional classrooms at Broadview for occupancy in 2025-26

Option 2a: Increase capacity for current programming by about 280 students for a total capacity of about 1,300

Option 2b: Incorporate stand-alone core facility features in addition to build a self-contained academy program for about 280 students

District School 6 7 8Total 6-8

Enfield John F. Kennedy Middle 381 370 398 1,149Darien Middlesex Middle 384 366 351 1,101

Waterbury Michael F. Wallace Middle 363 356 333 1,052East Hartford East Hartford Middle 367 354 330 1,051

Wilton Middlebrook 307 345 351 1,003New Milford Schaghticoke Middle 323 323 345 991Torrington Torrington Middle 325 327 333 985

South Windsor Timothy Edwards 313 314 354 981Danbury Rogers Park Middle 331 303 345 979

Waterbury West Side Middle 343 315 320 978Danbury Broadview Middle 320 321 336 977

2018-19 Enrollments of Largest CT Middle Schools

Source: CSDE Edsight

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Middle School OptionsOption 2a Would become largest middle school

in state at about 1,300 students Would require redistricting portions

of Rogers Park to Broadview Potential to consolidate King and

Stadley Rough to send entirely to Broadview

Potential to send Morris St. to Broadview

Avoids further splitting elementary school feeder pattern

Would overtax existing facility’s core capacity (cafeteria, gym, media center, etc.)

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Middle School OptionsOption 2b Construct additional core spaces to develop stand-alone programming area Develop self-contained educational program for a new academy Draw students from all over District, similar to Westside

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Broadview Option

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Middle School Options Long-Term Option 3

Construct 13 additional classrooms at Westside for occupancy in 2025-26

Increase capacity by about 280 students for a total capacity of about 1,030

Expand magnet programming by 280 students who will be pulled out of Broadview and Rogers Park districts

Construction concerns at Westside

Need for/ lack of swing space during construction

Parking issues with additional staff and program

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Westside Options

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Projected to exceed 3,500 students beginning in 2021-22

Nearing 4,000 students in 2024-25

9-12 Enrollment Projections

3,3983,472

3,573

3,7483,839

3,957 3,959 3,977 3,9784,031

4,086

3,398

3,000

3,150

3,300

3,450

3,600

3,750

3,900

4,050

4,200

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Danbury Public Schools High (9-12) Projections

9-12 Total Current Enrollment

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High School Options

Long-Term Option

Construct new 9th grade academy for 1,100 students on-site for occupancy in 2024-25

Options would eliminate either current parking or playfields on site

Year 9 Year 10 11 1210-12 Total

2019-20 974 2019-20 805 847 772 2,4242020-21 933 2020-21 880 798 861 2,5392021-22 1,046 2021-22 843 873 811 2,5272022-23 1,079 2022-23 945 836 888 2,6692023-24 1,077 2023-24 975 937 850 2,7622024-25 1,064 2024-25 973 967 953 2,8932025-26 1,049 2025-26 962 965 983 2,9102026-27 1,094 2026-27 948 954 981 2,8832027-28 1,079 2027-28 989 940 970 2,8992028-29 1,119 2028-29 975 981 956 2,9122029-30 1,111 2029-30 1,011 967 997 2,975

9th Grade Academy Danbury Public High School

Births

HIGHLOWMED

ActualLinearExponential5-Year Mvg Avg3-Year Mvg Avg5-Year WeightedLinear w/ 2019 estExp w/ 19 est5-Yr Mvg Avg w/ 19 est.Changes in Other Dip Years

19961,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,067Net

19971,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,076

1998996996996996996996996996996-7.4%

19991,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0768.0%0.6%

20001,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,069

20011,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,092

20021,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,126

20031,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,196

20041,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,028-14.0%

20051,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,16913.7%-0.3%

20061,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,192

20071,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,213

20081,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,234

20091,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,178

20101,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,141

20111,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,076

20121,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,093

20131,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0994.2%

20141,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,052-4.3%Out of State Birth Addition Table

20151,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671.4%

20161,1431,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1407.1%LinearW/OOSTExponentialW/OOSTHighW/OOSTModerateW/OOSTLowW/OOST

2017p1,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0742017p10351082103510821,0351,0821,0351,0821,0351,082

2018p9749749749749749749749749742018est1122.259740259711731120.877736754811711,0181,0641,0161,0621,0161,062

201997497497497497494694694620191123.34556747611741122.0067353824117210251,07110161,06210021,047

20201,0821,0791,0461,0071,0221,0771,0741,04020201124.431394692311751123.1368711884117410401,08710111,0569871,031

20211,0811,0771,0429851,0141,0761,0721,03520211125.517221908511761124.2681453182117510511,09810041,0499731,017

20221,0791,0761,0229891,0071,0741,0701,01420221126.603049124811771125.4005589184117610601,1089961,0419591,002

20231,0781,0751,0129941,0051,0721,0681,00220231127.68887634111781126.5341131366117710661,1149871,031944986

20241,0761,0731,0199891,0081,0711,0671,007

20251,0751,0721,0289911,0091,0711,0671,020

20261,008

Estimated BirthsJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJan-Jun TotalYearly Total

2000907986881007551810690.484565014For Chart

2001878185871009753710920.4917582418

200294849181969954511260.4840142096YearActualHighMediumLow

2003929095961097755911960.467391304320001,069

200480838990749050610280.492217898820011,092

2005101861101008810759211690.506415739920021,126

200610472989411810158711920.492449664420031,196

200710586113691048956612130.466611706520041,028

2008969610011710510161512340.498379254520051,169

200910694101979410459611780.50594227520061,192

201010488106909610358711410.514460999120071,213

201191828380928951710760.480483271420081,234

2012847695921139955910930.511436413520091,178

201389919493999756310990.512283894420101,141

201485838599857651310520.487642585620111,076

2015937610278868852310670.490159325220121,093

2016789510086939754911400.481578947420131,099

201785709487839551410740.4785847320141,052

20187179666888894619740.473305954820151,067

201974717184758145694620161,143

Average0.48225430862017p1,074

Out of State Average2018p974974974974

In State BirthsOut of State Births2019974974974

20001031380.0368574220201,0461,0221,007

20011055380.036018957320211,0421,014985

20021084420.038745387520221,0221,007989

20031147490.042720139520231,0121,005994

2004980490.0520241,0191,008989

20051106630.0569620253

20061131610.0539345712

20071160520.0448275862

20081160740.0637931034

20091129490.04340124

20101085560.0516129032

20111024520.05078125

20121053400.0379867047

20131036630.0608108108

2014998540.0541082164

20151032350.0339147287

20161085580.0534562212

20171036381086.7152835805

201891955963.9877853383

201943224453.1476858173

0.0489529764

28

High School Options

29

Options Summary

30

RecommendationsElementary

Pursue leased space and Ellsworth Annex renovation to provide short-term capacity when projected to be needed the most – in the next three years

Construct addition to Great Plain to relieve the District of leases in long-term

Middle

Pursue addition to Broadview as a stand-alone academy

From a constructability, and operations stand-point, most prudent option to ensure capacity available when need becomes imperative: 2025-26

High

Construct 9th grade academy to ensure sufficient capacity as soon as is possible

Construct on existing parking because replacement parking areas can be scattered around the site

31

Next Steps

Discuss options and decide on path forward

Refine project options and estimates based on final selections

Pursue bonding for implementation

Develop Ed Specs and prepare state grant applications

Submit grant applications

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