2052 - a global forecast for the next forty years · g120821 2052 database with slides graph 3a....

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1


2052 -

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Jorgen Randers Professor

Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI

Pestel Institut

Hannover, Germany October 13th, 2012


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12 scenarios for the 21st century


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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0

1

1

1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3 4

4

4

4

5

5

5 5

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Food output

1: Population

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

Vorführender

Präsentationsnotizen

Ressurskrise = effekten av dyrere ressurstilgang (jfr dyre oljeplatformer vs olje I Texas’ sand) I real termer: det tar veldig lang tid å få på plass alternativ energi etter at oljeprisen går I været. Imellomtiden synker livskvaliteten/velferden.


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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3 3

4 4

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Food output

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

Vorführender

Präsentationsnotizen

Ressurskrise = effekten av dyrere ressurstilgang (jfr dyre oljeplatformer vs olje I Texas’ sand) I real termer: det tar veldig lang tid å få på plass alternativ energi etter at oljeprisen går I været. Imellomtiden synker livskvaliteten/velferden.


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Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world

Source: KPMG, 2010


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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption

For all numerical data and the forecast model,

consult the book website www.2052.info


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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population 2010

(billion people)

GDP 2010

(trillion

$ pr year)

GDP per person 2010

(1000

$ pr person-year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate (scale →)

Death rate

Population (←scale)

% / yr Gpersons

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1


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0,0

1,2

2,4

3,6

4,8

6,0

0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gross labor productivity (scale →)

10,000$ / person-yr G$ / yr

World GDP (←scale)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a

Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)

3.6

Gp

4.8

6.0

2.4

1.2

0.0

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity

World GDP growth will slow down


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Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050

Share of GDP in investment will grow


0

30

60

90

120

150

0

8

16

24

32

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP (scale →)

Investment share in GDP (←scale)

G$ / yr %

Consumption (scale →)



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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

Energy use will peak in 2040


0

60

120

180

240

300

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World energy use (←scale)

toe / M$ Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)

180

G$ / yr

World GDP (scale →→)

240

300

120

60

0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


Fossil fuels will prevail

0,0

1,3

2,6

3,9

5,2

6,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use



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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions (←scale)

tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use (scale →→)

20

25

10

5



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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature and sea-level will rise


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)

deg C ppm

Temperature rise (scale →)

0.9

m

Sea level rise (scale →→)

1.2

1.5

0.6

0.3



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Average disposable income – 1970 to 2050

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

WORLD

BRISE

China

OECD

USA

RoW Residual

less US


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Democratic decision making takes time

COP 15 meeting in December 2009


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What should be done? – Globally 1. Slow population growth: Have fewer

children, particularly in the rich world

2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels, first in the rich world

3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly energy system in the poor world

4. Temper short-termism: Establish supra- national institutions

5. Establish new goals: Increase societal wellbeing in a world without growth


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And so? Will this be the end of… 1. …capitalism?

No, in spite of my desire for modification

2. …economic growth? Yes, GDP growth will slow toward 2052

3. …slow democracy? No, we won’t speed up in spite of trying

4. …generational harmony? Yes, and we old will loose

5. …stable climate? Yes, unless there is extraordinary action


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I don’t like what I see!

[email protected] www.2052.info

2052 - a global forecast for the next forty years · g120821 2052 database with slides graph 3a....

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