2052 – a global forecast for the next forty...

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1J Randers 1


2052 –A Global Forecast

for the Next Forty Years

2052 –A Global Forecast

for the Next Forty YearsJorgen Randers

ProfessorCenter for Climate Strategy

Norwegian Business School BI

European Investment BankLuxembourg, November 20, 2013


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12 scenarios for the 21st century


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1900 1950 2000 2050 21000

1

1

1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

34

4

4

4

5

5

55

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Foodoutput

1: Population

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004


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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

33

44

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Foodoutput

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level


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For all numerical dataand the forecast model,

consultthe book websitewww.2052.info


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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population2010

(billionpeople)

GDP2010

(trillion$ pr year)

GDP per person2010

(1000$ pr person-year)

US 0,3 13 41China 1,3 10 7OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate(scale →)

Death rate

Population(←scale)

% / yrGpersons

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1


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World GDP growth will slow down

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012

0

30

60

90

120

150

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP(scale →)

G$ / yr% / yr

Long term trend inproductivity growth(←scale)

g130605j

6.0

Gp

8.0

10.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Population aged 15 to 65(scale → →)

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity


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0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP

Non-discretionaryinvestment

(“unavoidable repair”)

G$ / yr

Consumption


Traditionalinvestment

(24% of GDP)

Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050


Global consumption will peak in 2045


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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

Energy use will peak in 2040


0

60

120

180

240

300

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Worldenergy use(←scale)

toe / M$Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity= Energy useper unit of GDP(scale →)

180

G$/ yr

World GDP(scale →→)

240

300

120

60

0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030

0.0

1.3

2.6

3.9

5.2

6.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use



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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions(←scale)

tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity= CO2 per unitof energy(scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use(scale →→)

20

25

10

5



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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere(←scale)

deg Cppm

Temperature rise(scale →)

0.9

m

Sea level rise(scale →→)

1.2

1.5

0.6

0.3



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1. Growth in population and GDP will slow “by itself” – because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints

2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis

3. There will be enough resources – including energy, water and food – to cover demand (which is not the same as need)

4. There will be more poverty – both in the rich and the poor world

Discussion of the 2052 forecast


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There will be huge regional differences

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

World

BRISE

China

OECDless US

USA

ROW

After-tax income per person(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)


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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast♣ World population and economy

will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect

- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis

♣ Consumption will stagnatebecause world society will have to spend

ever more on repair and adaptation

♣ The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus

of democracy and capitalism -is the root cause of this development


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What does this mean for the EIB?

1. Slow GDP growth in Europe for decades –also in the rest of the industrialised world

2. Continuing increase in the amount of repair and adaptation work –leading to reduced consumption growth


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Slowing growth in total productivity - USA

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rate of growth in GDP per

person 15 to 65 years of age

% / yr

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c


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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman

Total fertility

Long term trend

POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls

Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010


Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age


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Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – State of Affairs – 1970 to 2050

OECD outside the US – 1970 to 2050

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population

Consumption

CO2emissionsGDP

Temperaturerise

State of Affairs

Max values 0.8 Gp, 30 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 30 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C




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What should the EIB do?

1. The EIB should work to increase human well-being in a world with constant GDP and declining population

2. The EIB should help establish “repair and adaptation packages” financed with newly printed money


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Time to turn!

[email protected] www.2052.info

2052 – a global forecast for the next forty...

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