2052 a global forecast for the next forty years · 2015. 3. 20. · 2052 – a global forecast for...

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1


2052 – A Global Forecast

for the Next Forty Years

Implications for AQPER

2052 – A Global Forecast

for the Next Forty Years

Implications for AQPER

Jorgen Randers

Professor

Center for Climate Strategy

Norwegian Business School BI

Association Quebecoise de la Production d’Energie Renouvelable

Montreal, March 11th, 2015


J Randers 2


J Randers 2

Twelve scenarios

for the 21st century.

Warned against

growth beyond the

carrying capacity of

small planet Earth.


J Randers 3

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0

1

1

1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3 4

4

4

4

5

5

5 5

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Food output

1: Population

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004


J Randers 4

Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year

0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3 3

4 4

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Food output

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level


J Randers 5

A forecast of global

development to 2052.

Predicts that the world will

follow the pollution

scenario in The Limits to

Growth, somewhat delayed.

See www.2052.info


J Randers 6

Main trends towards 2052

1. Slower growth – both in population and

GDP

2. Gradual shift towards renewable energy

3. Continued growth in man-made

greenhouse gas emissions

4. Steadily deteriorating climate


J Randers 7

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population

Consumption

CO2

emissions

GDP

Temperature

rise

Past and future world

Max values 9 Gp, 150 G$/yr, 50 GtCO2/yr, 150 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 13

Figure 9-1a: Past and future World - State of Affairs -1970 to 2050

Central elements of the 2052 forecast

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012


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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012

There will be huge regional differences

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

US

OECD-less-US

China

World average

Rest of world

BRISE


J Randers 9

A much better future is possible

1. It is not impossibly costly

2. Requires a shift of 2 % of the world’s

labor and capital from dirty to clean

sectors

3. Is fiercely resisted by those who dislike

higher taxes and more regulation, plus

by the incumbent workers and owners

in the dirty sectors


J Randers 10

Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

World energy use will peak in 2040


0

60

120

180

240

300

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World

energy use

(←scale)

toe / M$ Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity

= Energy use

per unit of GDP

(scale →) 180

G$

/ yr

World GDP

(scale →→)

240

300

120

60

0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


J Randers 11

0,0

1,3

2,6

3,9

5,2

6,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use


Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


World use of fossil fuels will peak around 2030


J Randers 12

Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions

(←scale)

tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity

= CO2 per unit

of energy

(scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use

(scale →→)

20

25

10

5



J Randers 13

Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere

(←scale)

deg C ppm

Temperature rise

(scale →) 0.9

m

Sea level rise

(scale →→)

1.2

1.5

0.6

0.3



J Randers 14

What should be done?

1. Stop the use of fossil fuels in transport

2. Make buildings much more energy

efficient

3. Make manufacturing more energy

efficient

4. Build enough renewable energy

capacity (hydro, wind, solar for power;

solar and biomass for heat)

5. Build enough CCS to keep us below +2

deg Centigrade


J Randers 15

The long-term energy solution is obvious

1. Mainly electric, from climate friendly

sources. No coal, oil and gas

2. Most heat replaced by electricity (in

buildings, manufacturing, transport)

3. Cheap solar power, cheaper wind

power, some solar heat

4. Some gas and CCS in the transition

5. Some biomass, but not from slow-

growing species – they are more useful

for carbon storage


J Randers 16

What should you do?

1. Understand that the transition won’t

happen on its own – not fast enough

2. Exploit every opportunity that arise for

more renewables

3. Get into the energy efficiency business

4. Argue hard for more regulation: – ban (or tax) on cheap fossil solutions

– subsidies to renewable solutions

– tax-financed construction of clean capacity,

including R&D

5. Must be done while demand stagnates


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Sell it as a positive challenge!

Green electricity to save the world!

Remind voters that failure will mean

higher adaptation costs, that inevitably

will be paid for by the tax-payer


J Randers 18

It is time to act

[email protected] www.2052.info


J Randers 19

Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

50 % of human CO2 ends in the atmosphere

1. Emissions from energy

production (grey)

2. Emissions from

deforestation (brown)

4. Absorbed in oceans

(blue)

3. Absorbed in forests

(green)

CO

2-f

low

in

Gt/ye

ar

5.To atmo-

sphere

(yellow)


J Randers 20

The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population

2010

(billion

people)

GDP

2010

(trillion

$ pr year)

GDP per person

2010

(1000

$ pr person-year)

US 0,3 13 41

China 1,3 10 7

OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30

BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6

ROW (3) 2,1 8 4

Sum world 6,9 67 10


(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc

(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies

(3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


J Randers 21

Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate

(scale →)

Death rate

Population

(←scale)

% / yr Gpersons



J Randers 22

World GDP growth will slow down


0

30

60

90

120

150

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP

(scale →)

G$ / yr % / yr

Long term growth rate in

output per person aged 15 to 65

(←scale)

g130605j

6.0

Gp

8.0

10.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Population

aged 15 to 65

(scale → →)

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050

Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce


J Randers 23

0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP

Non-discretionary

spending (repair, adaptation, mitigation)

G$ / yr

Consumption


Traditional

investment (24% of GDP)

Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050


More unavoidable repair and adaptation work


J Randers 24

Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050

Enough food to satisfy demand – but not need


0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production

(←scale)

Gha Gt / yr

Cultivated land

(scale →) 6

t/ha-yr

Gross yield

(scale →→)

8

10

4

2


THE WORLD


J Randers 25

Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast

♣ World population and economy

will grow more slowly towards 2052

than most people expect

- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis

♣ Consumption will stagnate

because society will have to spend ever more

labour and capital on repair and adaptation

♣ The short-term nature of man

- reflected in the short term focus

of democracy and capitalism -

is the root cause of this development


J Randers 26

1. World population and GDP growth will slow

Because of human choice, not planetary constraints

2. There will be enough resources – energy, water & food

Because middle class will be smaller than expected

But unsatisfied needs among those who can’t pay

3. There will still be significant poverty

Because of growing inequity in the rich world

and low GDP growth in the poor world

4 . The world will be well on its way towards a climate

catastrophe in the second half of the 21st century

Discussion of the 2052 forecast


J Randers 27 J Randers 27


Simple to make a better world. In principle!


J Randers 28

What should be done? - Ideally

1. Further slow population growth

Introduce 1-child policy – first in rich world

2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world

Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2024

3. Reduce poverty in the poor world

Give a climate-friendly energy system to the poor

4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world

Legislate more compulsory vacation

5. Temper national short termism

Establish supra-national institutions

6. Reduce the focus on income growth

Establish “increased well-being” as the new goal


J Randers 29

What can be done? – Realistically (1 of 2)

1. Further slow population growth

♦ Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children

♦ Increase the pension age

♦ Explain that the “support burden” will not grow

2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world

♦ Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors

♦ Build no new coal capacity in the rich world

♦ Tax coal and oil and distribute the money evenly

3. Reduce poverty in the poor world

♦ Use most development aid to build renewable

energy capacity in the developing world

♦ Copy the planned rise of Japan, South Korea and

China – and their use of “strong government”


J Randers 30

What can be done? – Realistically (2 of 2)

4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world

♦ Simplify shift from dirty to clean production

= provide income security in transition

♦ Reduce production growth

= reduce length of the work year, i.e. more leisure

4. Temper national short termism

♦ Establish a global agreement where all nations

promise to emit less CO2 per person than the US

♦ Evolve IPCC to “IPCC 3” (a supernational org.

with funding to pay for the most effective cuts)

5. Reduce the focus on income growth

♦ Start measuring “growth in well-being” alongside

“growth in GDP”


J Randers 31


Slowing growth in total productivity - USA

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rate of growth in

GDP per

person 15 to 65 years of age

% / yr

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c


J Randers 32

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman

Total fertility

Long term trend

POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls

Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010


Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010

Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age

2052 a global forecast for the next forty years · 2015. 3. 20. · 2052 – a global forecast for...

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