Feb 23, 2021

Nat Resources

GEVONasdaq

Rating

OutperformUnchanged

Current Price

$11.25Target Price

$16.00

Market Capitalization

1.73B

Shares Outstanding

154.00M

Float

152.34M

Institutional Holdings

13.1%

12-Month Low/High

$0.46/$15.57

Average 90-Day Volume

36840803

Fiscal Year End

12/31/2019

  Revenues ($ MIL)

Period 2019 A 2020 E 2021 E

Q1 6.4 3.7 A 0.2 E

Q2 5.1 1.0 A 1.0 E

Q3 6.1 0.2 A 0.2 E

Q4 6.9 1.1 E 1.0 E

  24.5 6.1 E 2.3 E

  EPS ($)

Period 2019 A 2020 E 2021 E

Q1 -0.60 -0.64 A -0..5 E

Q2 -0.60 -0.40 A -0.04 E

Q3 -0.66 -0.09 A -0.05 E

Q4 -0.50 -0.05 E -0.05 E

  -2.36 -0.50 E -0.19 E

GevoToday's Update Should Highlight Upcoming Milestones

Tune in for today’s fireside chat. Water Tower Research will host another fireside chat with Gevo management today at 2:30pm EST. CEO Dr. Patrick Gruber and Chief Commercial Officer Timothy Cesarek will discuss Gevo’s Business Pipeline, Contracts and Beyond Net-Zero 1. Details on the fireside chat are posted at www.gevo.com.

Supply agreement amended to boost volume to 5 MGPY. Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS) agreed to boost the minimum volume on the October 2019 fuel sales agreement to 5.0 million gallons per year (MGPY). Sales are expected to begin 2024 with product from the Net-Zero 2 plant. The estimated value of the contract exceeds $100 million, including SAF and

environmental credits.

Recent corporate updates highlighted significant milestones achieved over the past quarter and discussed potential milestones. Please see our research notes dated January 25, 2021, January 26, 2021 and January 28, 2021 for more details on the NobleCon 17 presentation and the last WTR fireside chat.

Other potential milestones/catalysts over the next year. While reported operating results are not likely to be positive, several potential milestones/catalysts are on the horizon. Several others are listed on page two, but the major ones include: signing new supply contracts to fill up capacity of 45 MGPY for Net-Zero 2; quantifying Gevo's equity investment in first two plants; completing FEED engineering work by yearend 2021; awarding an EPC contract; and closing of project debt/equity financing in 1H2022. Other potential catalysts include friendly green energy legislation, higher carbon prices and heightened focus on ESG (Environmental, Social

and Governance) investing where GEVO screens well.

Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $16.00/share. We believe the high risk/high reward profile remains attractive even though profit taking after strong stock price moves of 323% in 4Q2020 and 165% this year should be expected. Not only is the balance sheet debt free, financial risk has moderated, the FEED engineering firm has been identified, and the majority of equity for the first two Net Zero plants has been secured. Other milestones/catalysts are on the horizon, and the prospects for 1H2022 financial closing on the first two Net-Zero

plants have improved.

Equity Research

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Logistics

314-719-6084 , pfratt@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Trading: (561) 998-5489 Sales: (561) 998-5491

www.noblecapitalmarkets.com

Refer to the last two pages forAnalyst Certification & Disclosures

Tune in for today’s fireside chat. Water Tower Research will host another fireside chat with Gevo management today at 2:30pm EST. Gevo will be represented by CEO Dr. Patrick Gruber and Chief Commercial Officer Timothy Cesarek. The main topic is slated to be Gevo’s Business Pipeline, Contracts and Beyond Net-Zero 1. Details on the fireside chat are posted at www.gevo.com.

Supply agreement with SAS amended to boost volume to 5 MGPY. Talks advancing with other potential customers, including industry players, and development pipeline expanding. Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS) agreed to boost the minimum volume on the October 2019 fuel sales agreement to 5.0 million gallons per year (MGPY). Sales are expected to begin 2024 with product from the Net-Zero 2 plant. The estimated value of the contract exceeds $100 million, including SAF and environmental credits.

The modified volume with SAS is additive to the numbers published in the January 2021 corporate presentation that indicated that 35.5 MGPY of supply agreements (SAF 86%/Renewable gasoline 14%) moved into the contract review/finalization stage,  up from 30.5 MGPY in October. In addition, 251 MPGY of supply agreements (SAF 74%/Renewable gasoline 26%) are in discussions or in the due diligence phase, up from 251 MGPY in December and 87.2 MGPY in October. As a result, the total development pipeline, including 48.6 MGPY under contract, has increased to 343 MGPY, up slightly from 335 MGPY in December and well above 251.2 MGPY in October. Interestingly, there has been a shift in the supply agreements in discussion or in the the due diligence phase toward renewable gasoline (67% from 26%) and away from SAF (33% from 74%).

Recent corporate updates highlighted significant milestones achieved over the past quarter and discussed potential milestones. The recent updates clarified the timing of FEED engineering and project financing, while reinforcing information discussed in two recent presentations. CEO Dr. Pat Gruber presented on Tuesday, January 18th at NobleCon 17, Noble Capital Markets' Seventeenth Annual Small and Microcap Investor Conference. The complete rebroadcast is available on Channelchek: https://www.channelchek.com/news- channel/NobleCon17_Rebroadcast. He also spoke on a fireside chat for Water Tower Research (WTR) the following week.

Please see our research notes dated January 25, 2021, January 26, 2021 and January 28, 2021 for more details on the NobleCon 17 presentation and the last WTR fireside chat.

Other potential milestones/catalysts over the next year:

While operating results are not likely to be positive, several potential milestones/catalysts are on the horizon, including:Signing new supply contracts to fill up capacity of 45 MGPY for Net-Zero 2, and possibly additional contracts for Net-

Zero 3; Closing debt financing for the renewable natural gas (RNG) project in NW Iowa and identifying major customer(s)

committing to RNG supply agreements;

Quantifying Gevo's actual equity investment in first two plants and finalizing equity financing terms; Identifying equity investors for remaining equity funding for Net-Zero 2 (maybe Net-Zero 1 too) and announcing financial

terms;

Identifying debt financing partner(s) for the Net-Zero projects and announcing financing terms; Securing and exercising options on land for all of the planned and potential Net-Zero plants; Completing the FEED engineering work by yearend 2021 (pushed out by three-four months);Awarding an EPC (Engineering/Procurement/Construction) contract to a construction firm; andFinancial closing of project debt/equity financing in1H2022 (pushed out from 2H2021) that allows Net-Zero 1, and possibly Net-Zero 2, to move into the construction phase. FEED engineering work must be completed prior to financial closing.

We have tried to create an order of the potential milestones/catalysts, but many of the potential milestones/catalysts run on parallel paths and are not mutually exclusive. As a result, the timing is difficult to predict since the discussions are ongoing and subject to numerous rounds of negotiation. For instance, additional supply agreements could be announced at any time, but the award of the EPC contract is not likely until the FEED work is substantially complete in twelve months. Also, a brownfield site for Net-Zero 2 could be announced once the vetting/due diligence process of the potential partners is finished. We believe that

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

discussions on all of the milestones/catalysts are moving forward,

Other potential catalysts include friendly green energy legislation, higher carbon prices and heightened focus on ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investing where GEVO screens well.

Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $16.00/share. We believe the high risk/high reward profile remains attractive even though profit taking after strong stock price moves of 323% in 4Q2020 and 165% this year should be expected. Not only is the balance sheet debt free, financial risk has moderated, the FEED engineering firm has been identified, and the majority of equity for the first two Net Zero plants has been secured. Other milestones/catalysts are on the horizon, and the prospects for 1H2022 financial closing on the first two Net-Zero plants have improved.

Figure 1: Stock Price Performance (May 2017—Present)

Source: Yahoo Finance.

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Company Profile

Gevo, based in Englewood, Colorado, is a renewable technology, chemical products, and next-generation biofuels company. Gevo has developed proprietary technology that uses a combination of synthetic biology, metabolic engineering, chemistry and chemical engineering to focus primarily on the production of isobutanol, as well as related products from renewable feedstocks.

Gevo’s strategy is to commercialize bio-based alternatives to petroleum-based products. Gevo produces isobutanol, ethanol and high-value animal feed at a fermentation plant in Luverne, Minnesota. Gevo has also developed technology to produce hydrocarbon products from renewable alcohols. Gevo currently operates a biorefinery in Silsbee, Texas, in collaboration with South Hampton Resources Inc., to produce renewable jet fuel, octane, and ingredients for plastics like polyester.

Fundamental Analysis-  3.0 / 5.0 Checks 

With this report we are updating our fundamental scorecard. In our assessment, we give the Gevo a score of 5.5 out of 10.0, which falls within our "Average" range of 4.1 to 6.0, which warrants 3.0 checks.

Given the positioning as an ethanol producer, the fundamental opportunity within the market appears neutral due to dependence on Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) and a highly competitive refining industry. But the future market opportunity within the renewable fuel market appears very significant as companies are focusing on carbon emission reductions and Gevo has developed technology that produces renewable transportation fuels from non-fossil fuel feedstocks. Operating performance has not been as consistent due to the development of new technology and dependence on a volatile and cyclical refining industry. As a result, we expect performance to be in line with industry benchmarks, and below average cash flow stability in different market environments are neutral. Similarly, the balance sheet risk is above average and existing shareholders have been diluted in the past.

While a convertible debt refinancing in January 2020 alleviated some near-term pressure and created some breathing room to sign additional off take agreements and line up project financing to modify/expand the Luverne plant, there was not enough cushion and additional capital was raised by issuing equity in July 2020, which diluted existing shareholders. An equity offering of 30.0 million common shares at $0.60/share generated net proceeds of $16.2 million. In addition, 30.0 million Series A warrants that expire in five years were issued so an additional 30.0 million shares could be issued. In addition, 4.2 million common shares were issued in a convertible debt exchange and another 4.2 million shares were issued to employees/directors in return for a 20% salary reduction and services rendered. As a result, the total share count approximated 53.8 million shares after the offering, which was a significant increase from 15.5 million shares at the end of 2Q2020.

Following the positive stock price response following the addition of Trafigura as a customer in August 2020, another equity offering was completed that raised about $46 million. In addition, the majority of the Series A warrants were exercised in August so that the total number of shares outstanding increased to 119.6 million shares in 3Q2020. Including 8.1 million shares issued in 4Q2020 from the conversion of debt, the ATM program and warrant exercises, there were 128.6 million shares outstanding at yearend 2020.

Capital raises have continued and a total of 69.1 million shares have been issued this year. The ATM program has been active with 24.4 million shares issued, 1.9 million warrants were exercised and 43.8 million shares were issued in a direct offering. as a result, pro forma shares outstanding are currently in the 197.7 million range, which is up sharply from 14.5 million shares at yearend 2019.

The capital raises reduce financial risk with the approaching convertible debt maturity in December and enhance funding visibility for Koch Project Solutions to push forward on the engineering and design work (FEED). In addition, the significant contract portfolio with a 25 million gallon per year (MPGY) agreement with a sub of Trafigura expanded the supply portfolio and positions the company to move forward securing project financing to develop the three project and capture attractive growth opportunities. In addition, the quality of management and the Board of Directors is above average due to extensive industry

experience and equity ownership.

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Investment risks include:

* Historic dependence on ethanol market and crush margins, which have been weak. Gevo legacy production is ethanol based and the ethanol market has been plagued by weak profitability. Demand has not expanded as much as expected and the industry faces a capacity surplus. At the same time, corn is the major cost component and crush margins are currently low. * As a result of weak market conditions, ethanol production at the Luverne plant was idled in 2Q2020 and the focus was on converting the facility to produce advanced low carbon transportation fuels. Subsequently, the development plan shifted away from converting Luverne to building a new plant on a greenfield site. 

* Technology might not be scalable. While Gevo is confident that the technology is scalable, there could be unforeseen problems building/converting plants and operating larger scale plants.

* History of operating losses. Gevo has consistently generated annual operating losses. Over the past six years, operating losses exceed $150 million. While management believed that cash flow breakeven could happen by the end of this year, that timeline has been pushed out into the 2022 timeframe. Given the long history of operating losses and convertible debt that matured in late 2020, there is going concern language in the latest financial fillings. With the 3Q2020/4Q2020 capital raises, the 4Q2020 conversion of debt into equity, we believe that the going concern language will be eliminated when the 2020 10-K is filed, likely in March.

* Equity financing has materially expanded the number of shares outstanding. Gevo has funded operating losses, including development costs, and capex with equity issuances. Prior to the July 2020 equity offering that raised an additional $16 million, equity issuance had raised $123 million and warrants have raised an additional $27 million over the past years. The main vehicle was an at-the-market (ATM) program that raised about $40 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019. After adjusting for several reverse stock splits, shares outstanding increased from 0.1 million in 2015 to 14.6 million in early 2020 and to 53.8 million after the July 2020 equity offering of 30.0 million shares that also included 30.0 million warrants with a strike price of $0.60/share. Since the July offering, several other equity offerings have been completed and debt was converted. In August, an equity offering was completed and shares outstanding was 119.6 million in 3Q2020. In 4Q2020, ATM issuance added 2.2 million shares, warrant exercises added 0.7 million shares and debt conversion added 5.7 million shares to increase the shares outstanding to 128.6 million. Equity issuance picked up again this quarter with the ATM program adding 24.4 million shares and warrants adding 1.9 million shares As a result, the pro forma shares outstanding is close to 197.7 million.

* Operating losses extended into 2Q2020 and the cash cushion dropped to $6.3 million in 2Q2020. In order to fund future operating losses, debt maturities and the upfront development costs of the renewable fuels plant(s), additional capital was required. As a result of the ATM program, a July 2020 equity offering, warrant exercises, a convertible debt exchange and employee incentive programs, more than 105 million common shares were issued in 3Q2020 and 7.6 million shares were issued in 4Q2020 to bring the year end 20202 share count to 128.6 million, which was a significant increase from 15.5 million shares in 2Q2020, 14.9 million shares in 1Q2020 and 13.7 million shares in 4Q2019. With 1.9 million warrants exercised, another 24.4 million shares issued under the ATM program and another 43.8 million shares issued in a direct equity offering, total current shares outstanding have increased to 197.7 million.

* Convertible notes were high cost and the 4Q2020 conversion diluted existing equity holders. In January 2020, new convertible notes were issued in exchange for existing convertible notes. The interest rate is 12%, but make whole payments increased the effective interest rate into the 20%-plus range. In addition, the conversion price on the notes is no higher than $2.442/share and the conversion into 5.7 million shares at the end of 2020 resulted in an expansion of slightly more than 4% in the total shares outstanding (down from more than 40% before the 3Q2020 capital raises). While the exchange was not contingent upon shareholder approval, Gevo would not have been able to convert the convertible notes if shareholders did not approve the issuance of additional shares upon conversion. Shareholders approved the equity issuance at a special shareholder meeting in late 1Q2020.  

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

* Dependence on capital markets was high, but has moderated with recent capital raises. Prior to 2021, Gevo faced challenges raising capital to fund the development and construction of the first plant. At the start of 2021, Gevo needed to finalize the terms on the project financing for the first Net-Zero plant. Total estimated cost was in the $700 million range and the targeted debt/equity mix is 70%/30%. Strong stock price performance enabled capital raises of $458.6 million, including warrant exercises of $1.1 million, ATM issuance of $135.8 million, and a significant direct offering of $321.7 million. Pro forma cash expanded into the $535 million range from $78.6 million at year end 2020, and Gevo is well positioned to fund the majority of equity in the first two plants.

* Equity market capitalization was small and daily volume was low prior to 3Q2020 capital raises. Plus, past stock price performance has been very volatile and weak at times. At the current stock price, the market capitalization is in the $2,225 million range, up from $33 million at the beginning of August. In addition, the large equity offerings and warrant exercises boosted average daily trading volume and have had a positive impact on trading liquidity, with average daily trading volume ballooning to 38.1 million shares in 3Q2020, 25.6 million shares in 4Q2020, and 38.7 million shares in 1Q2021, substantially above the 2Q2020 level of 315k.

For further explanation of our fundamental analysis, refer to the disclosures at the end of this report.

Valuation Summary

The future market value of Gevo rests squarely on the ability to complete the construction of a new plant named Net-Zero 1 (formerly Tranche 1), other Net-Zero plants and the expansion/conversion the Luverne plant into a low carbon renewable fuel plant. With the success in building the large portfolio of supply, or off-take, agreements with significant counter parties, one risk factor has been addressed. We believe that additional supply agreements could be signed shortly, including agreements for renewable transportation fuels that are not aviation related. While the financial condition of the airline industry has deteriorated as measures are implemented to stem the spread of the COVID-19, we believe that the airline industry will survive, possibly with financial assistance from the federal government, and the commitment to lower carbon emissions will remain in place. In the event that any financial assistance from the federal government is tied to hitting climate change targets, interest in commercializing low carbon sustainable transportation fuels could further increase. 

The other major risk factor is financing the first renewable fuel Net-Zero 1 plant, which initially was the Luverne plant conversion/expansion. While deriving a price target is a challenge given the history of significant operating losses and lack of a significant asset base, the progress in developing the current strategic plan, including the recent modifications to Net-Zero 1, and the financing discussions make the financial projections more plausible. In addition, the engagement of Citigroup in April 2020 as a financial advisor adds confidence to the development of more concrete project financing proposals, and the addition of industry partners, especially from the refining sector, would boost confidence in the prospects for the commercialization and financing of the concept. The supply agreement contract for 25 MGPY signed with Trafigura in August was a major step forward in advancing the development plan. Another milestone was hit with the identification of the FEED engineering firm, Koch Project Solutions, a subsidiary of Koch Industries. Establishing relationship with two major energy industry players is a significant positive, and it could lead to collaboration in other arenas, including equity/debt investments in the project financings.

The significant capital raises that increased pro forma cash into $535 million range was a game changing development. With the cash on the balance sheet, Gevo will be in the driver seat since pro forma cash should be high enough to fund the FEED engineering and the majority of the equity investment in the first two planned Net-Zero plants; one greenfield and one brownfield. Previously, we expected most of the equity investment to be funded by outside investors, which implied that there would be some leakage in the project economics for Gevo. Once the FEED engineering is completed, the project financing will close. While the capital raises will not accelerate the financial closing since the FEED engineering is a gating factor, it creates more confidence that the project financing will be lined up well in advance. It appears that the debt portion of the project financing might also already be lined up.

To generate financial forecasts that serve as the basis for our price target, we analyzed the revenue forecasts and applied an EBITDA margin to generate EBITDA estimates. In addition, we calculate that the equity investments should generate returns in

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

the 25%-30% range, and we estimate that total EBITDA with two plants running could approximate $105—$165 million. We capitalized our EBITDA estimate at a multiple to calculate a total enterprise value (EV) estimate. After subtracting forecasted debt and adding back expected cash, we calculated a equity market cap estimate and divided that number by the shares outstanding. The end result is a price target based on a fully operating portfolio of renewable fuel plants, including the greenfield Net-Zero 1 (Tranche 1) plant and the brownfield Net-Zero 2 (Tranche 2) plant. The potential to convert/expand

Luverne plant adds optionality.

In order to account for the construction time and other risk factors, we are now discounting our price target by two years using a discount rate to calculate an adjusted price target. Based on forecasted EBITDA in the $105—$165 million range, an EV/EBITDA multiple in the 21x range and a discount rate of 10%, our 12-month price target recently increased to $16.00, which is toward the upper end of our calculated price target range of $10.96/share—$16.78/share. Please note that we are using a higher EV multiple, in the 20x—23x range, given the high potential of the renewable fuel concept, to calculate a price target. Our current price target incorporates the modification in the Net-Zero development plan (highlighted above) and the significant increase in the total share count after the equity offerings and warrant conversions in 3Q2020, the debt conversion and equity issuance in 4Q2020 and the significant equity offerings, including the ATM program, in 1Q2021. 

The significant expansion of the supply portfolio with the 25 MGPY contract and the addition of a leading global commodity/energy player in August supports our belief that the proposed construction and/or conversion/retrofit of at least two, and maybe one or two more, plants is feasible given the current supply agreement development pipeline. The agreement validates the renewable transportation fuel technology and business strategy, which warrants a higher EV multiple range. While 104.1 million common shares were issued in 3Q2020, including 42.8 million in equity/warrant offerings, 53.0 million shares from warrant exercises, 4.2 million shares in a debt conversion and 4.2 million shares to employees/directors for salary reductions and services rendered, and 7.8 million shares were issued in 4Q2020, the significant equity dilution is more than offset by improved funding visibility, the expansion in the contracted and potential supply portfolio, and the ongoing project financing discussions. In addition, the 4.1 million shares issued to employees/directors vest annually over the next two years.

To reflect the significant progress and lower financial risk due to the recent capital raises, we recently increased our price target. Our price target is based on ~198 million shares outstanding, which incorporates equity issuance of 69.1 million this year and ~5.7 million shares issued upon conversion of the convertible debt into equity at the end of December 2020. The Trafigura supply agreement is a major positive and project financing discussions are progressing, but positive outcomes did not occur soon enough for investors to avoid dilution, which was a risk factor. But additional equity dilution should be lower moving forward since the supply agreement served as a catalyst for almost all warrants to be exercised. In addition, the quarterly cash burn has moderated, and the cash cushion should now be high enough to limit additional equity issuance in advance of the project financing closing. The significant capital raised, including about $6.6 million from the ATM program and warrant exercises in 4Q2020, lowered funding risk and created solid visibility to address the convertible note that was expected to mature at yearend 2020. Instead of maturing, the convertible debt was converted into 5.8 million shares after strong stock price performance in December. 

To capitalize on strong stock performance this year, Gevo moved quickly to raise enough capital to fund development costs and the majority of equity investment to fund the first two Net-Zero plants; one greenfield and one brownfield. The debt conversion preserved cash so the balance sheet was debt free and pro forma cash is now ~$535 million, up from $79 million at yearend 2020. While we are maintaining our current methodology, we will adjust our assumptions accordingly as more details emerge on the project financing of Net-Zero 1-2 (formerly Tranches 1-2) plants and the expansion of the Luverne plant, including financing it off balance sheet.

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

GENERAL DISCLAIMERSAll statements or opinions contained herein that include the words "we", "us", or "our" are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. ("Noble") and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThis publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. ("Noble"). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst's judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.

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Company Specific DisclosuresThe following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the "Company") covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report. The Company in this report is a participant in the Company Sponsored Research Program ("CSRP"); Noble receives compensation from the Company for such participation. No part of the CSRP compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed by the

analyst in this research report.

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Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

FUNDAMENTAL ASSESSMENTThe fundamental assessment rating system is designed to provide insights on the company's fundamentals both on a macro level, which incorporates a company's market opportunity and competitive position, and on a micro/company specific level. The micro/company specific attributes include operating & financial leverage, and corporate governance/management. The number of check marks that a company receives is designed to provide a quick reference and easy determination of the company's fundamentals based upon the following five attributes of the company (weighting reflects the importance of each attribute in the overall scoring of company’s fundamental analysis):

Attribute Weighting

   Corporate Governance/Management 20%

   Market Opportunity Analysis 20%

   Competitive Position 20%

   Operating Leverage 20%

   Financial Leverage 20%

For each attribute, the analysts score the company from a low of zero to a high of ten based upon the analysis described below. The final rating and resulting check marks is a result of dividing the overall score (out of 100%) by ten.

Rating Score Checks

   Superior 9.1 to 10 Five Checks

   Superior 8.1 to 9 Four & A Half Checks

   Above Average 7.1 to 8 Four Checks

   Above Average 6.1 to 7 Three & A Half Checks

   Average 5.1 to 6 Three Checks

   Average 4 to 5 Two & A Half Checks

   Below Average 3 to 3.9 Two Checks

   Below Average 2 to 2.9 One & A Half Checks

   Low Quality 0 to 1.9 One Check

While these are the attributes currently used for the analyst's fundamental analysis, the attributes and weighting may be reviewed, updated with additional attributes, and/or changed in the future based on discussions with the analysts and recommendations from the Director of Research.

Following is the description of each attribute in the fundamental analysis.

Corporate Governance/ManagementWe believe that a review of corporate governance and assessment of the senior management are important tools to determine investment merit. Good corporate governance aligns management with the interests of stakeholders. As such, analysts are to rank the company on the basis of good corporate governance principles that may include rules and procedures, board composition and staggered term limits, rights and responsibilities, corporate objectives, monitoring of actions and policies, and accountability. In addition, analysts will assess issues with controlling shareholders and whether decisions have been made in the past that were in the interests of all shareholders. In addition, management will be assessed based on industry experience, expertise, and/or track record.

High ranking example: Board and management that is aligned with the interests of shareholders with incentives based on stock price appreciation and with an experienced management team known for exceptional shareholder returns.

Low ranking example: Concentrated ownership without independent directors that do not necessarily align with all shareholders' interests.

The Market Opportunity Analysis In this review, the analyst assesses the company's macro environment as a measure of understanding the industry. Factors considered include the size and growth potential of the industry under various economic conditions, the emerging demands in the market, technological benefits/disruptions, competition, geographical opportunities, and customer demands/needs, and an assessment of supply and distribution channels. In addition, the analyst will review legal and regulatory trends, as well as potential shifts in consumer or social behavior and natural environment changes.

High rank example: A company in an industry that is growing revenues well above GDP rates (which are on average 2% plus) and/or may have unmet or under-served needs in a rapidly growing market opportunity.

Low rank example: A mature industry that is in secular decline and likely to grow below GDP rates.

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

Competitive Position The evaluation of the company's competitive position is another macro environment attribute designed to measure the relevance, market share, position and value proposition, and sustainable differentiations of the company and its products/services within its industry. Ease of entry into the industry and the ability of other well-funded players to potentially enter the market would be determined. As such, the assessment would consider the company's strengths and advantages of its products/services against weaknesses and limitations. This may include the company's current brand awareness, pricing and cost structure, current market strategies and geographic penetration that may affect demand for its products/services. In addition, the company's competitors would be evaluated.

High rank example: An analyst would consider the company's product to be superior to its competitors and that should allow the company to gain market share.

Low rank example: A company with a "me-too" product that does not have any significant technology advantages in an industry that has low barriers to entry.

Operating LeverageSimplistically, operating leverage is determined by the operating income relative to changes in revenue. The analyst will calculate the impact on sensitivity on gross margins and variable costs to determine operating leverage. The analyst will take into account the ability of the company to cut fixed and variable costs in a challenged revenue environment and technological changes that may impact operating expenses. In addition, the analyst is to assess corporate strategies that include capital investment, which may be required for sustainable revenue growth, marketing expenses, and the company's ability to attract and retain talent and/or employees. The analyst should focus on the revenue opportunity and determine the price elasticity of demand for the company's products or services. In other words, the analyst is to rank the company based on improved operating margins going forward on an absolute and relative basis.

High rank example: A company that has improving margins for the foreseeable future, with significant price elasticity.

Low rank example: A company that is in a challenged revenue environment with a fixed cost structure and limited ability to cut costs, indicating an outlook for declining margins.

Financial Leverage A strict definition of financial leverage is total debt divided by total shareholder's equity. Financial leverage analysis is to determine the company's ability to improve shareholder value by means of utilizing its balance sheet to grow organically or to acquire assets. Analysts may look at the company's debt to cash flow leverage ratio, interest coverage ratios, or debt to equity ratios. In addition, the interest rate environment and the outlook for interest rates are a factor in determining the company's ability to manage financial leverage. Finally, the analyst is expected to determine the ability to service the debt given the industry and/or company profile, such as cyclicality, barriers to entry, history of bankruptcy, consistency in revenue and profit growth, or predictability in sales and profits and large cash reserves. The analyst is expected to take into account capital intensity of the company and the anticipated of capital allocation decisions.

High rank example: A company with predictable and growing revenue and cash flow with modest debt levels. This may indicate that the company could improve shareholder value through growth investments, including acquisitions, using debt financing.

Low rank example: A company in a cyclical industry in a late stage economic cycle that has above average debt leverage and is in an industry that has a history of financial challenges, including bankruptcies.  

ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCESenior Equity Analyst focused in the Transportation & Logistics sector. More than 28 years of experience on the buy-side and sell-side. Holds a history degree

from Stanford University and earned an MBA from Cornell University (Johnson School).

Named WSJ 'Best on the Street' Analyst twice. FINRA licenses 7, 63, 65, 86, 87.

CONTINUING COVERAGE

Unless otherwise noted through the dropping of coverage or change in analyst, the analyst who wrote this research report will provide continuing coverage on this company through the publishing of research available through Noble Capital Market's distribution lists, website, third party distribution partners, and through Noble’s affiliated website, channelchek.com.

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021

WARNINGThis report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by . This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by .

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATIONIndependence Of ViewAll views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of CompensationNo part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of InterestNeither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS % OF SECURITIES COVERED % IB CLIENTS

   Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price 77% 32%

   Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price 6% 3%

   Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price 0% 0%

NOTE: On August 20, 2018, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. changed the terminology of its ratings (as shown above) from "Buy" to "Outperform", from "Hold" to "Market Perform" and from "Sell" to "Underperform." The percentage relationships, as compared to current price (definitions), have remained the same.

Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by mail or phone.

Noble Capital Markets, Inc.225 NE Mizner Blvd. Suite 150Boca Raton, FL 33432561-994-1191

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) registered broker/dealer.

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is an MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board) registered broker/dealer.Member - SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation)

Report ID: 12066

Gevo (GEVO) | Current Price: $11.25 | Outperform | Feb 23, 2021