23.05.2012, presentation, valuation of ett and the impact on new government policy, masa igata

Investment Potential in Mongolian Coal

Securities

May 23, 2012

Valuation of ETT and Impact of New

Government Policy

By Masa Igata,

Founder & CEO Frontier Securities

I N V E S T M E N T P O T E N T I A L I N M O N G O L I A N C O A L Securities

Valuation of ETT and Impact of New Government Policy

Prospects of margins and volumes that the Mongolians can

expect to enjoy in the next 3-5 years

Valuation comparison of ETT compared with other coal miners

inside and outside of Mongolia

What are the challenges for Mongolian companies to raise

money in international capital markets successfully?

What will be the policy of the new Government and its impact?

2 Agenda

Massive resources: 20 bln tons of coal

Coal exports ramp up to 55 mtpa by 2020.


3

Coal: 9th largest in the world with 20

billion tons of coal, 7 – 8 billion tons of

which is high CV thermal and coking

coal with values in excess of

US$100/ton

100 billion tons of lignite which could be

readily exported as power (US$500 bn)

2011 coal exports was 21.1 mm tons;

2012F coal exports is 28.0 mm tons

Mongolia’s coal exports is expected to

reach 130.0 Mtpa by 2025.

Mining GDP has been on a steady

growth, despite the commodity price

volatility.

231 257 323 566 463

717

1,006 997 967

1,438 1,648

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$ mm Growth of mining GDP

CAGR = 21.7%

7.1 16.7 21.1 28.0 33.0 40.0 50.0

90.0

130.0

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2020F 2025F

Mtpa Mongolia’s coal export projection

Mongolia’s total inferred coal resources as predicted around 152 bn tons ranking top 15

The preliminary and detailed exploration resulted in about 23 bn tons of coal reserves

The proved coal reserves are 12.2 bn tons including 2 bn tons of coking coal and 10.1bn

tons of thermal coal Source: 1) National Statistics Office (NSO) – Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (Exchange rate US$1 = 1,330 MNT)

2) NDIC presentation and Lucky Strike Resources Investor Presentation, Nov 2011

Significant investment is mining equipment is needed to fuel mineral exports


4 Growth in mineral exports is offset by rising imports of mining machinery,

contributing to trade deficit

1%

3% 24%

11%

55%

1% 2%

3%

US$ 4.1 bn in Mineral Exports (FY2011)

Refined copper &Copper alloysZinc

Copper

Iron

Bituminous coal

Molybdenium

1%

6%

33%

11%

37%

2%

3%

7%

US$ 2.4 bn in Mineral Exports (FY2010)

Refined copper &Copper alloysZinc

Copper

Iron

Bituminous coal

Molybdenium

Fluor spar

271 425 608 424 681

1,772

290 360 836 1,038

1,630

5,310

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$ mm Trend in machinery imports and FDI

Mining machinery and equipment imports FDI

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$ mm Mining equipment and fuel imports contribute to

the surge in Mongolia’s trade deficit

Exports Imports

Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) – Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Dec 2008, Dec 2011, and World Bank – Mongolia Quarterly Economic Updates, Feb 2012,

Major coal projects in Mongolia – location map


5

Khushuut Ownership: MonEnCo

Zeegt, Shinejinst Ownership: Gobi coal & Energy

Ovoot Tolgoi, Soumber Ownership: SouthGobiSands

Naryn Sukhait Ownership: MAK and MAK/QH

Baruun Naran Ownership: MMC

Ukhaa Khudag Ownership: MMC

Small TT Ownership: TT JSC

Big TT Ownership: Erdenes MGL

Ovoot Ownership: Aspire Min

Ulaan Ovoo, Chandgana Ownership: Prophecy Coal

Shivee Ovoo Ownership: Shine Shivee, Shivee Ovoo, Erdenes MGL

Baganuur Ownership: State owned co.

5 Source: Energy Resources, Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia, Company Websites, Frontier Securities

Mongolia is expecting over 50mt exports by 2015


6 Major coal projects in Mongolia – summary

Source: Individual company reports *Include Southwest, Borteeg, Eastern and Bortolgoi coalfields

Company Mine Resource

(mt) Reserve

(mt)

Production (mt) cash cost

(USD/t)

Quality Parameters

Ash Sulphur Volatile matters 2011 A 2015E

Gobi Coal & Energy

Shinejinst 229 95

NA 6

40 10% 0.45% 37% Zeegt 93 NA 50 10% 0.50% 37%

Khurren Gol NA NA NA NA NA NA

Aspire Mining Ovoot 330.7 NA NA 12 15 8% 1% 25% - 28%

Prophecy Coal Ulaan Ovoo 209 20

0.5 – 0.1 1 14 10% 1% NA

Chandgana 1,200 NA 1.4 14 12.49 0.7 NA

Hunnu Coal Altai Nuurs 500 ~ 250 NA

NA 4.8

10.70% 0.48% 18% Tsant Uul 200 ~ 150 90 17% - 39% 0.28% - 0.65% 22% - 42%

Unst Khudag 324.25 226

MMC Ukhaa Khudag 578 283

4.8 15.2 25.3 25% 0.66% 25.55%

11% 0.60% 31% Baruun Naran 283 185

MAK Naryn Sukhait 220 NA ~ 7 8 6% - 10% 0.7% - 1.5% 35% - 38%

South Gobi Ovoot Tolgoi 736 176 4.6 26 10%

MEC Khushuut 149 NA 0.5 – 0.1 6 21

Sharyn Gol JSC Sharyn Gol 200 0.5 – 1 1.5 19% 0.46% 30% - 35%

ETT East Tsankhi 1,262 619 1 15 41

Similar to MMC West Tsankhi 1,734 610 NA 6 41

Others* 4,387 NA NA NA

Total Appr. 20 77

High quality coking coal reserves are nearest to China


7 Mineral assets’ geographical locations: an ultimate blessing

Source: Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia

- Coking coal - Bituminous coal - Subbituminous coal -Lignite

Most developments located here

Global coking coal trade –


8

Supply constraints in Australia and industry

consolidation lead to lower supply!!!

The biggest of buyer of Mongolian coal is less than 200km from away!

Source: AME, China Coal Resource,

Indonesian Ministry of Energy &

Resources, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Coking coal export from major suppliers is project to

remain steady in future.

Indonesian domestic consumption will take over exports…


9 Indonesian coal trade

Source: Indonesia Coal Mining Association

China alone buys each ounce of Mongolian coking coal


10 Mongolian coking coal is dominating!

Source: Aspire mining; China Coal Resource, Shanxi Fenwei Energy Consulting

Mongolian coal industry statistics

Coal quality and price comparison

China will continue to benefit from cheap but high quality Mongolian coal


11

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Indonesia Australia Mongolia

Chinese coal imports 2012 YTD (Mln tons)

Thermal

Coking

269

215

155

122 129

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Imported Domestic Mongolia (e)

USD

/t

Average coal prices 2012 for China

Coking

Themal

Source: Company Reports, China coal resource, J.P. Morgan report

MMC’s washed coal

Comparison of coking coal quality

Full-fledged infrastructure development will put Tavan Tolgoi to its maximum growth trajectory


12 Tavan Tolgoi – Major coking coal reserves

Development of transportation network and infrastructure

facilities is critical to successful commercialization of Mongolia’s

mining industry.

Location The Tavan Tolgoi coal

coalfield is located in the

central South Gobi region

of Mongolia

Approximately 235 km

north of the Mongolian-

Chinese border

Source: Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC, COO presentation, March 23, 2012

Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC owns licenses over a majority of the Tavan Tolgoi coalfield


13 ETT – Company profile

ETT holds 7.4 bt of Measured,

Indicated and Inferred coal

reserves, and resources of 1.2 bt

of Proven and Probable coal

reserves in accordance with

JORC.

ETT commenced commercial

production in July 2011.

ETT is in the process of expanding

production with the objective of

becoming a large-scale producer

and exporter of high quality

washed coking and thermal coal

products in Chinese and North

Asian markets

ETT has a strong growth profile,

targeting 20 Mpta ROM production

from East Tsankhi by 2017

Current corporate structure

Government of Mongolia

Erdenes MGL LLC

Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC

Government of Mongolia

Erdenes MGL LLC

Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC

Anticipated future corporate structure

Mongolian shareholders

Publicly traded shares

100%

100%

100%

51% or more


Coal field structure


14 Overview of Mongolia’s largest coal field – ETT

MMC


ETT is focusing on the development of Tsankhi coalfields


15 JORC Reserves and Resources

Measured

Indicated

Inferred

Eastern coalfield

Tavan Tolgoi JSC

(“Small TT”) (third party)

East Tsankhi coalfield

Reserves1: 619Mt (~61% coking coal)

Resources2 1,262Mt (~71% coking coal)

Daitsuki LLC

(third party)

Borteeg

coalfield

Southwest

coalfield

Source: Draft Technical Report

Note: 1) Represents marketable coal Reserves (i.e. sold raw or washed and sold as premium coal). Reserves for East Tsankhi exclusive of reserves within mining licenses owned by

third parties

2) In-situ coal Resources at <300m depth limit and estimated under JORC Code. Resources inclusive of reserves. Resources for East Tsankhi exclusive of resources within

mining licenses owned by third parties

West Tsankhi coalfield

Reserves1: 610Mt (~59% coking coal)

Resources2: 1,734Mt (~72% coking coal)


16 Tsankhi coalfield – key highlights

Overview: license owned by Erdenes (100%

owned by the Government), production rights

and development costs to bidders

Recent development: Currently in negotiation

with foreign SOEs and private interests from

U.S., Russia, China, Korea and Japan to

develop West Tsankhi coalfield as a

consortium

Overview: owned and operated by

Erdenes MGL through contract mining

agreement, commencing with Macmahon

/ Operat joint venture

Current production: 2.5 Mtpa

Producing high quality unwashed coking

coal while CHPP is under construction

5 Years offtake agreement with Chalco

West Tsankhi coalfield East Tsankhi coalfield


ETT & MMC

Resource and reserve base comparison (Unit mt)


Area (Resource) Measured Indicated Inferred Total

ETT

East Tsankhi 410 726 126 1,262

West Tsankhi 576 706 452 1,734

Others* – 1,554 2,833 4,387

Total 7,383

MMC

Ukhaa Khudag 203 294 81.0 578

Baruun Naran 209 73 1 283

Total 853

ETT/MMC resource ratio 8.6

*Include Southwest, Borteeg, Eastern and Bortolgoi coalfields

17

Area (Reserve) Proven Probable Total Marketable

ETT

East Tsankhi 359 589 948 619

West Tsankhi 482 406 888 610

Total 841 995 1,836 1,229

MMC

Ukhaa Khudag 188 95 283 N/A

Baruun Naran 148 37 185 N/A

Total 336 132 468 N/A

ETT/MMC reserve ratio 3.9

Production – production and prices

EET will be producing 2.7 times more than


18

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mt)

Production plans

East Tsankhi

West Tsankhi

MMC

Projected Actual

Average selling price (USD per ton)

Area 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

ETT Unwashed 70 70 75 95

Washed – – – 160

MMC Unwashed 68.6 95.1 95.1 95

Washed – 155.6 155.6 160

Source: Individual company reports, Frontiers data


19 Production and transportation cost comparison

Source: J.P. Morgan report

Global cost curve (FOT to the China target market region)

US

D/t

FO

B

Global coking coal production cost curve

MMC,

SouthGobi

ETT USD 41/t

MMC

P R E S E N T A T I O N M A T E R I A L Securities

Key data and assumptions for ET & WT DCF based valuation

East Tsankhi West Tsankhi

Coking/thermal split ratio 61/39 59/31

Coking coal Quality Hard & semi soft Hard & semi soft

Split ratio 2.4 2.8

LOM washing yield 64% 67%

Mine life (years) 50 48

Operating cost USD/t 41 41

Transportation USD/t 25 25

Avg. sell

price

Coking

coal

Washed 160 USD/t

Raw 95 USD/t

Thermal

Coal

Washed 90 USD/t

Raw 60 USD/t

Others:

• CAPEX = $ 1.5 bn

• Discount rate = 10%

• Depreciation rate = 2%

• Royalty tax = 9%

• Tax = 27%

• Administrative exp. = 10%

• Annual maintenance = $ 30 mn

• Our evaluation assumes 2 CHPP plants from 2014; each with 20mtpa capacity

• Maximum capacity (40mtpa) will be reached by 2019

20


Valuation matrix ETT (ET and WS)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 – 61

ET: Production 3 6 9 12 15 20 20 20

Coking/Thermal production ratio 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 60%

WT: Production 3 6 9 12 15 20

Coking/Thermal production ratio 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60%

Total raw coking coal production 3.00 6.00 7.00 5.60 4.00 - - -

Total washed coking coal production - - 3.05 6.10 10.32 13.32 14.52 14.52

Total raw thermal production - - - 2.40 - 2.40 - -

Total washed raw coal production - - - - 1.83 4.88 6.68 9.68

CHPPs Capacity 5.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 35.00 40.00

Total Revenue 285.00 570.00 1,153.00 1,652.00 2,195.64 2,675.88 2,923.69 3,193.54

Mining cost per BCM 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Coal Processing cost 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.58

Transportation cost per ton 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Royalty (USD mn) - - 44 88 149 192 209 209

Administration expenses 29 57 115 165 220 268 292 319

Total operating cost 177 355 704 1,045 1,356 1,741 1,880 2,102

Operating profit margin 38% 38% 39% 37% 38% 35% 36% 34%

Operating Profit (USD mn) 108 215 449 607 840 935 1,044 1,091

PAT (USD mn) 79 157 328 443 613 682 762 797

CAPEX (USD mn) -351 -465 -507 -44 -30 -157 -30 -30

Depreciation (USD mn) 6 11 23 33 44 54 58 64

Cash Flow (USD mn) -238 -238 -35 596 854 831 1,073 1,125

Discount rate Terminal Growth

1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

8% 10,720 11,783 13,273 15,507 19,230

9% 9,007 9,722 10,674 12,007 14,007

10% 7,689 8,187 8,827 9,680 10,875

11% 6,645 7,003 7,449 8,024 8,789

12% 5,802 6,064 6,385 6,786 7,302

21

Mongolian M & A transactions & ETT’s other areas’ value estimation


22

Date Acquirer Target Coal type

Transaction

value (USD m)

Stake

(%)

Total

Resource

(Mt)

USD/t

Resource

Project

status

Dec-10

SouthGobi

Resources

Aspire

Mining

Coking,

thermal 20 20% 331 0.30 Pro

Jun-11 MMC

QGX

Holdings

Coking,

thermal 464 100% 446 1.04 Pro

Sep-11 Banpu

Hunnu

Coal

Coking,

thermal 477 88% 844 0.64 Exp/Dev

Dec-11 SOE Gobi Coal

Coking,

thermal 91 14% 322 2.20 Pro

Source: Individual company reports, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Frontiers estimates

ETT’s other areas have

great potentiality due to

massive resources!

JORC Resources (mt) Measured Indicated Inferred Total Mine type Coal type

Soumber 137 83 220 Open pit HCC

ETT Other areas - 1,554 2,833 4.4 bn Open pit HCC

Soumber's coal resources 127.3 mt

Implied resource unit value in the Grande Cache acquisition (US$/t) 2.9

ETT other areas’ resource 4.4 bn tons


Peer comparison – EV/t resource

EET is in line with industry peers

Company Name Ticker EV (USD mn) EV/t resource Project status

MMC 975 KH 3599 4.18 Production

SouthGobi Resources Ltd 1878 HK 1330 2.66 Production

Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd 276 HK 1070 7.57 Production

Aspire Mining Ltd AKM AU 230 0.7 Exploration

Prophecy Coal Corp PCY CN 120 0.12 Exploration

ETT (ET + WS) 8.8 bn 2.95 ES, production

Note: Using EV and closing prices as at 24 February 2012.

Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, and J.P. Morgan estimates

23


24 ETT IPO –

Post-IPO ownership structure:

51% owned by Mongolian Government

20% owned by Mongolian citizens

29% for IPO issue in LSE or MSE + HKEx + Mongolian co-operations

Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank will be global coordinators for IPO,

BNP Paribas, Barclays, Jefferies and Macquarie will be book runners

As a world-class deposit, unfortunately, at the moment TT project is still at the raw stage and last year

produced its first million tons of coal.

Railway access to major coal mining projects in future


Phase IV

Phase I: 270 km

Phase II: 1,040 km

Phase III: 620 km

Phase IV: 3600 km

25

Source: Ministry of Road Transportation, Construction and Urban Development

Government of Mongolia to construct railroad to China


26 Infrastructure

Project

Government of Mongolia to

construct railroad with MMC:

MMC will invest 400mn USD

for railway project

Anticipated outcomes

Increase transportation capacity

over 50mpta for ETT and MMC

Significantly lower transportation

cost by 12USD to 15 USD per ton

depending on gauge difference

Russian gauge will lower the cost

by approximately 12USD;

Chinese gauge will reduce by 15

USD

Probability of Russian gauge is

higher

Margins for Mongolian companies projected to increase

Mongolian companies will enjoy higher margins due to increase price,

reduction in transportation cost and product value addition


27

• Production is held constant for illustrative purpose

• Average truck transportation cost from South Gobi Province to Chinese customer (~ 400 km) was 25USD/t by truck in 2010

• Railroad in 2015 will cut transportation cost by approximately USD 13/t

Parameter Unwashed

product (2010)

Partial Washed

product (2012)

Full Washed product

(2015)

Yield (As received basis) 100% 85% 70%

Production (tons) mt 3 2.6 2.1

Ash % 27 14 11

Price/ton (USD) 70 115 160

Revenue (USD mn) 210 293 336

Royalty * 9% 8% 6%

Earnings after royalty tax (USD mn) 191 270 316

Transportation cost (USD mn) 25 20 7

Revenue after transportation 166 250 309

Possible Margin Benchmark value 84 143

Lucrative opportunities can be undermined by political uncertainty


28 Political risk

Updates on politics

Bill to control foreign investment into strategic enterprises

Arrest of key anti-ruling party leader, Ex-President of Mongolia

N. Enkhbayar on bribery charge

Potential suspension of SouthGobi mining licenses

Implications for

investors

It is becoming more difficult for foreign investors to do business

in sectors of strategic significance , namely, mineral resource,

finance and banking, communications;

However it is premature to suggest exact implications of the bill

before its implementation

Ultimately the Government will definitely devise solution to

satisfy all parties – restoring investors confidence, wining public

opinion, ensuring sustained economic growth etc.

Real economic engine is not much hindered by political shock

Rising political risk does not mean to discourage investors;

however they must be careful about the timing

Bottom line

Post election 2012 is the best timing for investment

Investment in Mongolian with right timing and right portfolio

definitely yields rewarding returns!!!


29 Key challenges for Mongolian companies

• Impacts of new foreign investment law

• Inflationary pressures

• Weaker share price

• Balance of supply other countries

10 CAD per price of Ivanhoe mines

can be considered as a benchmark of

weak share prices! Share performance of Ivanhoe mines


• New investment law will be in place soon, however issue of

resource nationalization will be settled after election

• New investment law aims to win the trust of the citizens not

to scare investors; we believe investment environment will

improve after the election

• Given quality, resource, and construction of railway – ETT

will be one of the biggest IPOs of Asia

• Investment at right time with right portfolio will definitely yield

rewarding returns!!!

30 Conclusion


31

Appendices

The first step towards world-class stock exchange platform


32 Implementation of Securities Market Law’s (SML) reform:

Improved Listing Rules: More clarified terms and

definitions:

More strict requirements and

emphasis on disclosure and transparency:

Promoted market activities and transactions:

- Incorporated parts of Official Listing

Rules from UK’s Financial Services Act;

- Set up listing and prospectus

requirements;

- Clarified where a prospectus is needed, and where it is not

- Adoption of international standard,

where feasible;

- More clarified definitions of various Securities Market terms

- More descriptive Broker, Dealer and

Underwriter responsibilities;

- Introduced the concept of Beneficial

Ownership, Trustees and Custodians; - Clearer definition of the law’s objectives

- Amended statements that would have

placed excessive liability on Professionals;

- Removed text that are unnecessarily too

prescriptive and onerous;

- Added definitions and procedures related to Depository Receipts

Latest

SML’s

reform

Government of Mongolia, MSE and FRC implement a number of reform measures to nurture a sustainable

development of the country’s capital market.


33 Prospective infrastructure to access Eastern Russian

and Eastern Chinese seaports


34 Frontier Securities is one of the leaders in Mongolia

o Frontier Securities is the first foreign investment full-service banking firm in Mongolia o With underwriting and brokerage licenses

o Member of MSE

o Wide-range of services for aiding investment decisions o Corporate Finance

o Research and analyses

o Up-to-date reports and information

o Due diligence

o Etc.

o Cross-border investment brokerage services

o Headquartered in the capital of Mongolia, Frontier Securities has a strong presence in the country and wide network

o Client base include regional and Hong Kong, Chinese, Australian, British, Canadian and other foreign energy and resource companies, sovereign wealth funds, private equity and hedge funds, institutional and other investors


35 Frontier Securities’ products

We provide various information to foreign and domestic companies to aid their investment decisions:

• Company Reports

• Macro-Economic Reports

• Daily Summaries

• Independent Analyst Reports

• Investment Analyses

• Investment Forum and Conferences

• many more

Your participation is highly welcome.


36 Frontier’s Annual Conference is held from September 3 – 5, 2012

Frontier has been organizing annual conferences focusing on capital raising and investment

opportunity in Mongolia since its establishment in 2007. Having quickly gained momentum and

acknowledgement from the investor community, our June 2011 annual conference grew even larger

in scope and size, welcoming more than 560 participants from many prominent organizations

across various sectors. Our pre-conference and post-conference mining tours receive favorable

responses from attending international investors. In addition, our Expert Series, a publication of

annual conference summary, is also distributed through international news outlets for investor’s

reference, helping them make informed investment decision on Mongolian related assets.

The objective of this event is to allow institutional investors to learn more about the latest

developments and lucrative investment opportunities in the Mongolian business environment from

key direct sources. At the same time, our conference is also structured to provide a channel for

Mongolian corporations to explore various raising capital options offered by foreign counterparts.

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23.05.2012, presentation, valuation of ett and the impact on new government policy, masa igata

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