20.04.2023

Post-American World?Lípa

Tomáš Sedláček Chief Macroeconomic Strategist ČSOB

2

Our Wealth … vis-a-vis the worldGDP per capita in PPP

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

170%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CR

HU

SK

SI

USA

JAP

EU27

PT81%

3

General Slow Down: No country left behind

1. BUT: No negative growth expected yet!

3. CEE is the strongest region!

2. EU grows faster than US (first time in history of eurozone)

4

Europe on the riseGDP / EU27 nominal (including euro effect)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

•1999: 50%

•2008: 24%

Japan has lost half of its position in just one decade

•1999: 102%

•2001: 112% EU 40% stronger

•2008: 73%

Due to the euro sternght in the year 2003 EU27 had become a bigger economic block than US

5

Catching up with USA… and JapanGDP/capita in PPP (excluding the effect of euro)

142%

144%

146%

148%

150%

152%

154%

156%

158%

160%

162%

164%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

135%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

JAPAN

USA

•1999: 160%

•2008: 146%

•1995: 130%

•2008: 111%

6

Who is a bigger debtor?The Federal debt of

USA rose by 10% since 2001

EU debt fell 2% since 2001

Thus in 2007 the debt level of USA and EU is

equal at 66%

But add to it 10-14% from US bailouts…

USA

And the winner is:

7

Tomas SedlacekChief Macroeconomic Strategist

ČSOB

tSedlacek@CSOB.czgsm: +420 737 263 076

tel: +420 261 353 115

Thank Thank YYou for ou for YYour our AAttentionttention

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