3-climate and water vulnerability-ramiro.pptx

8/11/2019 3-CLIMATE AND WATER VULNERABILITY-RAMIRO.pptx

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LOS CAMBIOS CLIMTICOS YVULNERABILIDAD DE LOS

RECURSOS HDRICOS EN BOLIVIA

(Summary of papers and implication for futurestudies)

La Paz, junio de 2014

Ramiro Pillco Zol, Ph.D

[email protected]


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Geographical position and

the vulnerability of ALTIPLANO

Evaporation and climate changes

of Andean Plateau in large time scale

Intense local hydrological processes

and future studies


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Papers carried outEvaporation of Andean plateau surface waters strongly influencesstable isotopes elevation reconstruction

Richard P. Fiorellaa

, Christopher J. Poulsena

, Ramiro Pillco Zolb

, M.Louise Jefferya, d and Todd A. Ehlersa,c (submited to PPHYSICAL

SCIENCE, 2014)

Spatial interpretation of precipitation in Altiplano derived fromTRMM and PERSSIAN satellites

(Presented at fifth Scientific Meeting

of ORE-HYBAM, Bolivia, 2013)

F. Satga, A. Arsenb, M.P. Bonnet a, F. Timouka , S. Calmantb, R. Pillco

Zolab, J. Molina c, W. Lavado-Casimirod, J.F. Crtauxb

Accuracy assessment of SRTM v4 and ASTER GDEM v2 over the

Altiplanos watershed using ICES/GLAS DATA (submitted in 2013) .F. Satga, A. Arsenb, M.P. Bonnet a, F. Timouka, S. Calmantb, R. Pillco

Zolac, J. Molina c, W. Lavado-Casimirod, J.F. Crtauxb

Response of Bolivian Altiplano Lakes to Seasonal and Anual

Climate Variation (Doctoral Thesis, Ramiro Pillco Zol, Lund University, 2007)


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Additional worksTectonic control on denudation rates in the central Bolivian AndesGerold Zeilinger (1), Florian Kober (2), Kristina Hippe (3), Theodora Lendzioch (1), Reto

Grischott (2), Ramiro Pillco Zol (4), and Markus Christl (5) (University of Potsdam) (Published

at Geophysical Research, 2013) (EU FUNDS)

Sediment production in Tuni river glacier watershed, Bolivia (Presented at AOGSmeeting, Taiwan, 2012) (JICA FUNDS)

Geomorphology and the erosion behavior of glacier watershdes in Bolivia(Presented

at Grande International Symposium, Tohoku University, Sendai, 2012) (JICA FUNDS)

Runoff prediction with swedish Hvb model in the small Azanaque watershed withporpuse of water planignMarco Limachi (a), Ramiro Pillco Zol (b) (Presented at National workshop in modeling of

water resources in Bolivia, 2013) (SIDA FUNDS)

Recharge zones defined for Azanaque watershed on satellite images and based onempirical modelMauro Reyes Ayaviri, Ramiro Pillco Zol (Presented at local workshop, La Paz, Bolivia, 2013)

(SIDA FUNDS)

Desing of groudwater dam in Huacani watershed for irrigation purposes, 2012

(SIDA FUNDS)Alejandra Mollinedo, Ramiro Pillco Zol


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Motivation

(close at 4000 masl, 14S and 22S and longitude 66W and 71W)

Living under

risk!

(J. Allen, 2000)
http://www.zonu.com/fullsize-en/2009-11-08-10941/Satellite-view-of-South-America.html


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Geographical position and the vulnerability ofALTIPLANO (Context)

( MCQUARRIE, 2005)

Orographic barrier and highposition/climate changes consequences

(Smith, 1979; Seager, 2002; Takahashi, 2007)

Geodynamic mechanism


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-Precipitation distribution at regional scale

Data comparison between TRMM and observed, northern part

(F. Stage, R. Pillco, et al., 2013)



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The positive precipitation

anomalies in Altiplano is linked to

La-Nia of ENSO phenomena an the

contrary to El-Nio

The southern of Altiplano is

becoming warmer than the northern

of Altiplano. For tropical region we

may expect 4, 7 C (IPCC, 2010)

According to climate treats wemay expect high vulnerability for

changes of ecosystems, agriculture,

health

(R. Pillco & C. Uvo, 2006)


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Water level changes for the

present climate, observed/computed

Water level for future scenarios

warmer climate and cold climate

Titicaca Lake

(R. Pillco, et al, 2007)


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Evaporation of Andean Plateauand from surface water

- Isotopic composition of Altiplano, today (2009-2012)

-The streams have experiencedhighly evaporation than the precipitation

-There is encrease in the 18O ofprecipitation with increasing elevation

..or with altitude more evaporative water

(F. Stage, R. Pillco, et al, 2013)

-In long-term the water with uplift of Altiplanowill become more evaporative ???

GDEM/ICE


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Evaporation of Andean Plateau andfrom surface water

- It was applied stable-isotopes/orogenic histories

Miocene

arid

The surface evaporationwas pervasive during all

the time of Andean uplift

Uplift2.5 km

(Garzione, 2008; Leier, 2013)


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Evaporation of Andean Plateau andfrom surface water

(Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, M;

Pillco, R.; 2013)


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Intense local hydrological processes

and future activities-The precipitation trend at local scale

0,000

0,100

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1,000

1,100

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oct 2008 nov 2008 dic 2008 dic 2008 ene 2009 mar 2009 mar 2009 abr 2009 may 2009 jun 2009 jul 2009 ago 2009 sep 2009

Q obs

Q sim

(M. Limachi & R. Pillco, 2012)

(R. Pillco & C. Uvo, 2006)


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Intense hydrological processes/future activities

-Climate changes impact on poor developed societies

Water limited

Increasing pressure

Over-extraction

Fragile ecosystems

Basic water management

Climate changes impact

(M. Reyes & R. Pillco, 2012)


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Intense hydrological processes/future activities

-Informative map at small scale

Trend and climate changes

at regional scale

Trend and climate changes

at local scale

Prediction at regional scale and models

Prediction at local scale and models

Conventional actions Adaptation actions

What should be the model for reasonable economic development?


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Thanks !

(Ramiro, 2014)

3-climate and water vulnerability-ramiro.pptx

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