climate change vulnerability and poverty nexus: climate...
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Climate Change Vulnerability and Poverty Nexus: Climate Finance in
Bangladesh M. Zakir Hossain Khan
Transparency International Bangladesh
Email: [email protected]
Economic and Poverty Status of Bangladesh
Economic growth is estimated on average of 6.5% since 2010
Over 70% out of 52 Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets already met or on track towards 2015
Poverty rate reduced from 60% in 1990 to 31.5% in 2010
Poverty incidence, based on national poverty line ($1.13 per capita per day), is projected to decline from 31.5 percent in 2010 to 24.47 percent by 2014
The UN Human Development Report 2014 claims Bangladesh has been graduated from Low Human Development (LHD) category to Medium Human Development (MHD) category in 2013
Climate change vulnerability and Bangladesh
• Loucks et al. (2010) predict a 96% decline in tiger habitat in Bangladesh’s Sunderbans mangroves with a 28 cm sea-level rise if sedimentation does not increase surface elevations. Rising winter temperatures are expected to result in poleward expansion of mangrove ecosystems (Section 5.4.2.3)
• Wassmann et al. (2009a, 2009b) current temperatures of Bangladesh are already approaching critical levels during the susceptible stages of the rice plant (March-June)
• Sea-level rise threatens coastal and deltaic rice production areas in Asia, such as those in Bangladesh and the Mekong River Delta (Wassmann et al., 2009b)
• In a low crop productivity scenario, countries such as Bangladesh would experience a net increase in poverty of 15% by 2030 (Hertel et al., 2010)
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR) WGII, Chapter 24: Asia including Bangladesh)
Poverty Impacts in the Climate Change Vulernbale Zones of Bangladesh
Potential Risk of Sea-level Rise in Bangladesh
Bangladesh may loose around 29,846 Square Km that includes several small islands such as Hatia, Moheshkhali, Saint Martin,
Bhola and other Sothern coastal areas (IPCC, 3rd Assessment Report)
Poverty and Climate Change Nexus
Poverty rate is the highest level in The coastal zone of
Bangladesh which is vulnerable to sea level rise
Northern part of the
country that is also identified as drought-prone areas
Climate Finance in Bangladesh
Source: CPIER, 2012
Flow Chart 1: Present Structures and Processes of Fund Flow for Climate Finance
Source of
Fund
Coordination
Implementation
MRV
Key
Actors
CC
U,
CP
TU
(IM
ED
)
Monitoring
& Evaluation
C&
AG
, W
B,
3rd
Part
y
Financial
Audit
Pa
rlia
men
tary
Sta
nd
ing
Co
mm
itte
e o
n
Min
istr
y o
f E
nv
iro
nm
ent
an
d F
ore
st
Oversight
Oversight
MoEF
ERD of Ministry of Finance
(Responsible to deal any foreign funds to
Bangladesh Government)
PKSF
Government
Organization
NGO’s &
CSO’s
Bangladesh
Govt.
BCCTF (Trustee Board,
Technical Committee,
Theme Committee)
Proposed BCCRF
Secretariat
CCU
BCCRF
(Governing Council,
Management
Committee)
DPs
MDBs
World Bank
BCCRF Unit
PPCR Unit
Adaptation
Capacity Building
Mitigation
Research ERD
Project Purpose Flow of Fund High
Medium
Low
Fund Transfer
Actors’ Role Funding/Project Approval
Coordination & influence Enforcement, Monitoring
& Evaluation
Project Implementation
Other Relations Accountability
Trustee
Coordination
Monitoring & Evaluation
Proposed Relation
(Coordination)
Climate Finance in Bangladesh
402.6
188.2 262.5
146.1 100.3
284.2
13.7 14.5 65.5
886.8
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
BCCTF BCCRF PPCR Japan FSF GEF LDCF Other Total
In M
illio
n U
S$
Pledged Approved
Climate dimension expenditures actually represent 22% of total government budget and 6.51% of GDP – Climate Fiscal Framework, 2014
Climate Finance in Bangladesh
0.03
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.8
3.0
4.5
4.6
9.4
10.0
16.9
17.5
30.7
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock
Education
Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs
Women and Children Affairs
Health and Family Affairs
Science and ICT
Defence
Communication
NGO Funding (BCCTF + BCCRF)
Shipping
Agriculture
Disaster Management and Relief
Others (British and German Govt + World …
Environment & Forest
Water Resources
Power Energy and Mineral Resources
LGRD & Cooperatives
Less CF allocation for most cyclone and drought prone areas at which extreme poverty rate is also the highest
Less CF allocation for most cyclone and drought prone areas at which extreme poverty rate is also the higher
CF Mechanism to address Vulnerability to CC and Poverty
Lessons learned Way Forward
Gaps in addressing climate change into development planning especially disaster risk reduction especially targeting the poor Households- led to mal-adaptation
Integrated development planning as well as financing with proper consideration of CC vulnerability
Proper assessment of the CC vulnerability and targeting as well
Strict consideration of bottom-up approach in developing adaptation plans and programs
Approved projects from both BCCTF and BCCRF partially addressed CC vulnerability but missed to address poverty stricken climate venerable areas
In approval of the projects (either from BCCTF or any development project) consideration/focus on numbers (both amounts of funds and projects in total) for individual/political influence rather than vulnerability
The highest level of pro-active disclosures of decision-making process as well as adaptive actions at the ground
Regular dissemination of climate change and poverty vulnerability data across regions and income groups
Challenges: Mal-Adaptation and Planning Risks of Top-bottom Approach Limited proactive disclosures of Information (e.g. Project proposals, project completion reports, Construction Design/Plan Collection; Evaluation Report etc.
US $1400 @ per structures; total 2003 Faulty Design of cyclone
resilient housing
Political consideration
in targeting and
contracting
Not have prior consultation with targeted
Household
Lack of proper monitoring
and evaluation
Faulty fund disburse may
push the vulnerable
people in the most
vulnerable
CF Mechanism to address Vulnerability to CC and Poverty
Lessons learned Way Forward
Linkages in preparation of the National Adaptation Plan and Five Year Plan/Annual Development Plan is not visible
Coordination between MoEF and MoP should be established
Even though transparency in financing (like using climate marker under the Climate Fiscal Framework - CFF) is improved but clear gaps in ensure proper accountability at implementation especially unusual delay in implementation of the adaptation projects
Have to establish a coordinated body like Climate Change/Finance Commission for effective disclosures, knowledge management, proper adaptation planning, create scope for citizens watchdog role;
Create mechanisms for effective engagements of the vulnerable citizens into adaptation project planning, approval and implementation
How the MoF or Audit Department would capture gaps in planning or mal-adaptation or knowledge level linkages on climate change vulnerability and assess the projects in terms of that is not clear in the proposed CFF
How expected level of integrity, accountability, competency and capacity of NIEs would be ensured by Climate Change Cell of the MoF to access funds from the Green Climate Fund is not clear
M. Zakir Hossain Khan
Transparency International Bangladesh
Climate finance is not just money it tells lives and livelihoods