“water- agriculture- international trade nexus ... · “water- agriculture- international trade...

“Water- Agriculture- International Trade Nexus: Implications for Food Security in

the context of Climate Change”Pr Mohamed AIT KADI

President of the General Council of Agricultural Development, Rabat, MoroccoChair of the Global Water Partnership Technical Committee

Montréal, Canada, October 20, 2010

Third McGill Conferenceon Global Food Security

A Changing World

Cannot be solved by 1 country Problems are interconnected

Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC

Problems can’t be solved by countries acting in isolation

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

US

$/ba

rrel

US

$/to

n

CornWheatRiceOil (right scale)

Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.

Diverse policy responses to food crisis

Trade Trade restrictionrestriction

Trade Trade liberaliz.liberaliz.

Consumer Consumer subsidysubsidy

Social Social protectionprotection

Increase Increase supplysupply

AsiaAsiaBangladeshBangladesh XX XX XX XXChinaChina XX XX XX XXIndiaIndia XX XX XX XX XXIndonesiaIndonesia XX XX XXMalaysiaMalaysia XX XX XXThailandThailand XX XX XX

Latin AmericaLatin AmericaArgentinaArgentina XX XX XX XXBrazilBrazil XX XX XXMexicoMexico XX XX XXPeruPeru XX XX XXVenezuela Venezuela XX XX XX XX

AfricaAfricaEgyptEgypt XX XX XX XXEthiopiaEthiopia XX XX XX XXGhanaGhana XX XXKenyaKenya XXNigeriaNigeria XX XX XXTanzaniaTanzania XX XX XX

Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reportsSource: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007, 2007--08.08.

The problems are interconnectedThe problems are interconnected


Plan of this talkPlan of this talk

1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture-Trade} Nexus “Morocco’s Example”

2. Climate Change: A Game Changer

3. What are the Implications for Food Security?

4. Conclusions

6

WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS

WATER

AGRICULTURE TRADE

SS

FS

Rainfed

/ Irri

gatio

n

Blue

/Gre

en W

ater P

rodu

ctivit

y

Virtual Water

Ground Water Depletion

Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture“Super market revolution”Commodity prices volatility

IWR

MWTO, Regional

Bilateral TagAg. REFORMS


Demography/UrbanizationEconomic Social Institutions/GovernanceTechnologySolidarity

«Toute chose étant aidée et aidante, causée et causante, je tiens pour impossible de connaitre le tout sans connaitre les parties et de connaitre les parties sans connaitre le tout .. »

9

Morocco’s Demographic Transition

05

101520253035404550

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Mill

ions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

Population

Rural

Urban

Urbanity ratio

Morocco’s Economic Transition

Morocco’s GDP (BDH) Structure of the EconomyShare in GDP (%)


WATER

AGRICULTURE TRADE

SS

FS

Rainfed

/ Irri

gatio

n

Blue

/Gre

en W

ater P

rodu

ctivit

y

Virtual Water



IWR

MWTO, Regional



Sujets de discussion

• Présentez les principales idées que vous allez développer

Morocco is a highly water stressed country with erratic rainfall and frequent droughts.

The country is reaching the end of the water development era. Water resources management is therefore shifting to the more difficult task of ensuring economically, socially and environmentally efficient water allocation within the existing water resources constraints.

13

Rewable Water Resources/ca/RB

1190

8531045

141

856

512418

1144

161

0200400600800

100012001400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

River Basins

Ren

ewab

le W

ater

R

esou

rces

m3/

ca

1

23

4

56

7

8

9

730 m3 /ca/year

Deficit/surplus

96

-219

1068

-35

-1468

-163 -126

11 -4

-2000-1500-1000

-5000

50010001500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

River Basins

Mm

3

Water resources endowment/distribution

Morroco’s Water Issues & Constraints

• Water demand is growing fast;

• Water availability is falling to crisis levels;

• Overexploitation of groundwater

• Shortages are compounded by pollution

• Low water use efficiency in irrigation;

• Etc.


WATER

AGRICULTURE TRADE

SS

FS

Rainfed

/ Irri

gatio

n

Blue

/Gre

en W

ater P

rodu

ctivit

y

Virtual Water



IWR

MWTO, Regional



LSI &SMSI in LSI &SMSI in MoroccoMorocco

OuarzazateOuarzazate

TafilaletTafilalet

MoulouyaMoulouyaLoukkosLoukkosGharbGharb

DoukkalaDoukkala

SoussSouss--MassaMassa

HaouzHaouz

TadlaTadla

Grands pGrands péérimrimèètres tres dd’’irrigationirrigation

Océan Atlantique

PPéérimrimèètres de Petite tres de Petite et Moyenne et Moyenne HydrauliqueHydraulique

Indices de la production des cultures et de l’élevage

Important Production Increases of Crop & Livestock

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

AG-GDP X 2


WATER

AGRICULTURE TRADE

SS

FS

Rainfed

/ Irri

gatio

n

Blue

/Gre

en W

ater P

rodu

ctivit

y

Virtual Water



IWR

MWTO, Regional



Evolution Export-Import Agricoles

0

5 000 000

10 000 000

15 000 000

20 000 000

25 000 000

30 000 000

35 000 000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Année

Mill

e D

hs

Import Agri ExportAgri

TRADE

Sujets de discussion• Présentez les principales idées que vous allez

développerWith its heavy dependence on imports of

wheat, maize, oilseeds and energy for domestic consumption Morocco has been severely hit by rising world food and oil prices. This has raised serious concerns about food security, macroeconomic and social stability

FOOD IMPORTS/TOTAL IMPORTS (%)

6

6,5

7

7,5

8

8,5

9

9,5

10

10,5

11

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

FOOD EXPORTS/FOOD IMPORTS

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

The agricultural trading system is not yet neither truly global nor truly free. Developing countries still have difficult access to markets of developed countries.

At present, developed countries provide trade distorting subsidies to their farmers and impose tariff barriers to developing countries exports that escalate with the value of the product.

We need a trading system that draws on the expertise of every nation and returns to every nation a more diverse and above all secure supply of food.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

36,837,9

59,7

44,743,1

40,3 38,4

49,349,9

54,254,756,563,5

75,9

40,641,343,145,5

48,654,0

70,2

30

60

90

1959/60 1970/71 1984/85 1990/91 1998/99 2000/01 2006/07

National

Urban

Rural

Source: HCP

U/R16,2 18,8 13,4 14,4 15,8 12 12,5

Improved Access to Food

1970 1984 2001 1970 1984 2001 1970 1984 2001

26 28 2716 19 21 2218 24

63 63 61 73 72 68 70 69 64

1110

12

12

119

129

12

PROTEINES

GLUCIDES

LIPIDES

Urban Rural National

22022422

3031

26002746

2963

24662606

3001Kcal/pers/jour

%

Nutrition Status Improved




3. What are the Implications for reforms

4. Conclusions

26

Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)

Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099

Climate change impact on resources Climate change impact on resources endowment & variabilityendowment & variability

Coop

WS

Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]

(Milly et al., 2005)

Climate Shift 80s?

Moyenne mobile 20 ans (série officielle)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1 945 1 950 1 955 1 960 1 965 1 970 1 975 1 980 1 985 1 990

1ère année

App

orts

moy

ens

20 a

ns (h

m3/

an)

Loukkos+LaouSebouBouregregOum Er RbiaTensiftMoulouyaLinéaire (Oum Er Rbia)





4. Conclusions

31

Key Questions

How much more irrigation does Morocco need to meet the future needs of a growing population?How to restructure consumption patterns from the present wasteful low value water intensive uses?How can farmers achieve a higher livelihood from every drop of water?What will the side effects on the rural community be by transferring water to cities? And what are the implications for food security?Does the import of food “virtual water” support food security and a more equitable and efficient allocation of water?

33

2 Reform strategy built around 2 Pillars « The Green Morocco »

L'agriculture comme moteur majeur de développement économique et social

Refonte du cadre sectoriel et amélioration des facteurs transversaux

Pilier II

Mise à niveau solidaire:

Investissement social et lutte contre la pauvreté agricole

Pilier I

Développement d’une agriculture moderne:

Investissement industriel à haute productivité/ valeur ajoutée

Foncier Eau ALE Marchénational

Doing business

Interprofessionnelles

Refocalisation Ministère

« GREEN MOROCCO »

Water Sector Reforms (1995/2009)

• The adoption of a long term strategy for an integrated water resources management;

• The development of a new legal and institutional framework to promote decentralized management and increase stakeholder participation;

• Introducing economic incentives in water allocation decisions through rational tariff and cost recovery;

• Taking capacity enhancing measures to meet institutional challenges for the management of water resources; and

• Establishing effective monitoring and control of water quality to reduce environmental degradation

Total expenditures in the water sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020

Irrigation2.6 - 3.2%

GDP

4.3% GDP 2.9% GDP

Water Supply & Sanitation

Hydroelectricity

Water Mobilization

The investment Programme

UpperCatchment

Basin Agencies Irrigation agencies WUA/Farmers

Watershed ReservoirConveyance & Distribution

System Farm

EvaporationEvapotranspiration

Evaporation

Seepage Operation

Seepage Run off Deep percolation

Leaching

Phreatophytes

Return flow andaquifer recharge

* Reforestationand watershedmanagement

* Water resource database* Decision support systems* Coordination* Control

* O. & M.* Rehabilitation* WUA

* Cropping patterns* crop productivity. Irrigation technologies and practices.pricing

-

-





4. Conclusions

37

38

Create the capacity to strategically advance and promote national comparative advantage and competitiveness

Establish an appropriate poliy framework and supportive linkages between sectors to ensure maximum effectiveness of development efforts

Develop necessary managment and marketing skills and support services to enhance local development opportunities

Develop dynamic market systems and complementary infrastructure services

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ?

39

Create market-driven technologies for achieving growth

Utilize national resource managment practices to enhance sustainable use

Develop alternative investment, growth and welfare strategies to expend rural well-being

RESPONSABILITIES OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Greater market access

Eliminate trade-distorting domestic supports

Increase financial assistance to agricultural and rural development

Facilitate technology transfer

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