3 global foodservice trends - worldwide | nielsenbrien… · 2016 npd-nielsen food summit annual...

GLOBAL FOODSERVICE TRENDS Bob O'Brien , The NPD Group

3

2016 NPD-NIELSEN FOOD SUMMIT

Overview

• Contrasting market structures around the world

• Key elements of global performance this decade


Foodservice Markets Tracked by NPD

CREST

CREST PILOT


Five things chains can do with CREST

• Measure share by key business segments

• Profile strengths and weaknesses of competition

• Look out at the market to see:

– Target buyers

– Menu mix

– Pricing

• Position concept for new business segments

• Identify target consumers by business segment


Five things manufacturers can do with CREST

• Identify chains and segments in which products can be positioned to sell.

• Understand how customers or prospects are positioned in the market

• Identify the best type of chain for new products

• Match chains with product appeal qualities

• Understand the potential for a product in a given type of chain


Annual foodservice spending per person

₩1,647

₩1,301

₩1,675 ₩1,407

₩1,089 ₩1,080

₩929 ₩1,185

₩431

₩2,313 ₩2,058

* Russia represents 8 cities

^ China represents 8 cities

Source: The NPD Group/CREST©

USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* CHN^ JPN

(000)


Former British colonies are fertile ground for QSRs

Fast Food

Full Service

Retail

On-Site

* Russia represents 8 cities ~ Brazil represents 15-59, class A-C


50 64 60

69

47 44 33

48 58

44 46 57

13

12

21 20 17

18 26

19

37 13 22 18

28

21

24

15 13 10

19 8

12

7

13 17

6

59

14 6 4 16 23

36

7 28 20 19

9 7

Channel Distributions Q1 2016


KOR USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* BRA~ CHN^ JPN


Where people eat their prepared meals is a kind of cultural lens.



Where Eaten Distributions Q1 2016


1 China has no “In Car” business 2 US, Canada and Japan have no “Street” business

On Premise

In Car1

At Home

Other2

At Work


45 39 47 48 38

55 43

81 76 59

47 67

28

21

9 13 11 22

14 23

12

16 18

21

19

17 15 10 8

7

5

23 31 21

23 18 16 11

9 15 26

8

40


Lunch is the biggest daypart in most countries.

Morning

Meal

Lunch

Supper

PM Snack



19 22 30 24 20 21 23 30 34 10 23 24 18

30 33 29 36 36 34

42 24 35

34 26

39 34

17

31 21 24 26 24 16

17 26 14

19

18

34 15 21 17 19 21 19

29 18

31 36 18

30

Daypart Distributions Q1 2016




Former British Empire countries are far more chain dominated than Continental European countries. Major

Chains

Small

Chains /

Indep.



46 63

80

55 61

38 43 28 32

81

9

45 54

54 37

20

45 39

62 57 72 68

19

91

55 46

Chain/Independent Distribution Q1 2016




Lehman Crisis: ‘07

European debt: ‘09

Japanese earthquake: ‘11

Weakening China: ‘12

Oil…Russia: ’14

Then

Now Since when?

Trend Review


Where to start?

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Global markets are evenly split between growth and decline since 2011.

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

Great Britain

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada

Traffic Indexed to 2011



In most markets lunch is the largest daypart.

Morning

Meal

Lunch

Supper

PM Snack



Daypart Distributions Q1 2016




Lunch is stable around the world outside of a couple of markets.

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

Great Britain

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada

Traffic Indexed to 2011



Morning meal is the only daypart to show growth over a majority of markets since 2011.

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

Great Britain

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Morning Meal Traffic Indexed to 2011



Checks have been consistently up in all but the two weakest European markets.

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

Great Britain

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Check Index to 2011



Breakfast checks are up much more aggressively than are checks in total.

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

Great Britain

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada

Check Index to 2011



Total Industry Traffic Distribution

Major

Chains

Small

Chains /

Indep.

* Russia represents 8 cities ^ China represents 22 cities

Chain/Independent Distribution Q3 2014


USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* CHN^ JPN


Chains

85

100

115

130

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

GB

FRANCE

GERMANY

ITALY

SPAIN

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada

Traffic Index to 2011



Why do we care about independents?

• In many countries they account for the majority of industry traffic

• All over the world independents launch and fail over and over again. A decline of independents represents a decline in new business formation

– Because of optimism

– Because of the availability of financing


Independents

70

85

100

115

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

Great Britain

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada




The importance of deals and promotions


Non-deal traffic has been down over the past five years and appears to have stabilized recently.

85

100

115

130

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

GB

FRANCE

GERMANY

ITALY

SPAIN

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada


Non Deal Traffic



Deal driven traffic is growing in all but some European markets.

Deal Traffic

70

85

100

115

130

145

160

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE Mar 2016

GB

FRANCE

GERMANY

ITALY

SPAIN

Russia

Japan

Australia

China

US

Canada




So…

• Traffic has stabilized

• Lots of traffic and check growth at breakfast

but not lunch

• Chains continue to drive markets all around the world

• Consumers continue to be drawn by deals and

promotions over full price meals.


CREST shows you… • Where is the big opportunity?

– Am I positioned to take advantage of it?

• Where is the growing opportunity?

– How am I performing compared to the market?

• Who are my buyers?

– What do they like that I’m not providing to them?

• Which competitor is the big winner?

– Are they taking my customers?

3 global foodservice trends - worldwide | nielsenbrien… · 2016 npd-nielsen food summit annual...

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