Learning and outreach event on scaling-up14 June 2012, Rome, IFAD HQ

Monitoring and Impact Evaluation for Scaling-up

Thomas Elhaut, Director, Statistics and Studies for Development Division , SKM, IFAD

Marzia Perilli, M&E Specialist, Statistics and Studies for Development Division , SKM, IFAD

Why are we discussing this?• IFAD IX goals (from 2010 to 2015)

– Reaching people: from 43.1 million to 90 million – Moving people out of poverty: from 34.5 million to 80 million

• Implications, at midterm:– Efficiency increase: 4.5%– Effectiveness increase: 16%

• Requirements:– We need to know:

• what works, where, why, how? • what to scale-up, how?• how scale up impact?

– Learning agenda, indicators, methods: M&E and IE systems– “Agility” to respond with ongoing portfolio and new programmes

the missing links : understanding cause to effect relations

• 15 million people out of poverty• impact is significant and measurable,

while questions remain:– net income impact: +120 % (vs +48% in non-project areas) ?

• the differences in impact between projects or between provinces (+34% to +520%) ?

– women: income +63%; disease incidence -26 %; illiteracy -28% ?– grain production, per capita: 65% (range 21% to 149%) ?

• 70 % of project activities are non-farm

• understanding impact pathways

Six “theory of change” pitfalls to avoidStanford Social Innovation Review

“Learning organizations carefully specify their assumptions, regularly reflect on whether those assumptions are bearing out, and consider what new assumptions they might test to further improve impact.

One simple but powerful mechanism to accomplish this is to create a “learning agenda”—a simple list of assumptions and hypotheses that your organization can test at some frequency.

A learning agenda can help ensure that your organization’s theory of change is constantly revisited”

http://www.ssireview.org/blog/entry/six_theory_of_change_pitfalls_to_avoid

How many learning agendas in IFAD?

IFAD Cross-cutting Principles 1 A differentiated approach based on country context; 2 Targeting; 3 Supporting the empowerment of poor rural people; 4 Promoting gender equality and women's empowerment; 5 Creating viable opportunities for rural youth; 6 Innovation, learning and scaling up; 7 Effective partnerships and resource mobilization8 Sustainability.

IFAD Programme and Project-Level Goals & Objectives1 Enhancing environmental sustainability and resilience in small-scale agriculture; 2 Promoting win-win contractual arrangements to help small agricultural producers seize opportunities at lower risk in

agricultural value chains; 3 Supporting the development of technologies for sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture; 4 Increasing the capacity of financial institutions to provide a broad range of inclusive services to poor rural people; 5 Promoting the capabilities of rural women and men, including young people;6 Capitalizing on opportunities to use renewable energy sources at the farm and community levels, and promoting low-

cost technologies using local resources to provide energy at the village level.

IFAD Macro-Level Goals & Objectives1 Lead rural poverty reduction initiatives based on small-scale agriculture;2 Help countries scale up successes through IFAD-funded operations; 3 Expand its policy engagement; 4 Strengthen its pro-poor partnerships with a range of actors, including other United Nations agencies, public and

private donors, and commercial enterprises that can bring pro-poor investment, assets and services to rural areas;5 Enhance its knowledge broker and advocacy role.

IFAD Strategic ObjectivesSO1 A natural resource and economic asset base that is more resilient to climate change, environmental degradation and

market transformation;SO2 Access to services to reduce poverty, improve nutrition, raise incomes and build resilience in a

changing environment;SO3 Poor rural women and men and their organizations able to manage profitable, sustainable and resilient farm and

non-farm enterprises or take advantageof decent work opportunities;

SO4 Poor rural women and men and their organizations able to influence policies and institutions that affect their livelihoods;

SO5 Enabling institutional and policyenvironments to support agricultural production and the full range of related non-farm activities.

Areas of thematic focus1 Natural resources – land, water, energy and biodiversity.2 Climate change adaptation and mitigation.3 Improved agricultural technologies and effective production services.4 A broad range of inclusive financial services.5 Integration of poor rural people within value chains.6 Rural enterprise development and non-farm employment opportunities.7 Technical and vocational skills development.8 Support to rural producers’ organizations.

Smallholder farming: a theory of change

Brookings: Spaces for Scaling Up

• Fiscal / financial space• Natural resource/environmental space Policy space Institutional

organizational/staff capacity space

• Political space• Cultural space• Partnership space Learning space

The broader evidence base of KM

Composite indicator(s)

Statistics

Internal IFAD data

Economic and financial analysis

Monitoring and evaluation results

State of the art thinking

Evidence-based state-of-the-art thinking

Scaling up

IFAD IX agenda• Reporting on results in 2015:

– 90 million people reached• Project M&E

– 80 million people out of poverty• sample survey of portfolio (stratification?)

– Lessons learnt: 30 evaluations (of which 6 RCTs)• Mixed methods• By project type• ASAP (ECD)

• Improving M&E systems– RIMS +++ – National capacity building

• Partnerships– IFPRI: methodology– 3IE: agricultural project evaluations– USAID, IFAD, FAO, WFP, WB, BMGF, … DFID, JPAL

• Informal network• learning agenda, common indicators and methods • peer review• Country focus ? : Bangladesh, Ghana and Tanzania

IFAD Project Types1 Agricultural Development2 Irrigation3 Livestock4 Rural Development5 Credit and Financial Services6 Fisheries7 Marketing/Storage/Processing8 Research/Extension/Training

Food Security Learning Agenda (FSLA)

• Dimensions of the Learning Agenda with specific evaluation questions:

1. Improved Livelihoods, with a focus on Rural Productivity2. Enhanced Management of Natural Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change3. Improved Research & Development for Agriculture and Nutrition4. Expanded Markets and Value Chains 5. Improved Policies, Institutions, and Investments for Food Security and an Enabling Environment6. Enhanced Nutrition and Dietary Quality7. Increased Resilience of Vulnerable Populations 8. Improved Gender Integration and Women’s Empowerment Scaling up framework

• Shared indicators: – RIMS– global goals (MDG1), agricultural index– Common set of indicators

• Methods

Convergence of learning agendas

FtF Learning Agenda IFAD's Thematic KM priorities

Bangladesh (2012)

Ghana

(draft 2012)

Tanzania (2007)

Ethiopia (2008)

India (2011)

Mali

(2007)

Rwanda

(2007)

1

Improved agricultural productivity Agricultural production (adoption and farm management) x x x x X

2

Improved research and development Improved agricultural technologies and effective production services X x x x x x x

3

Expanded markets, value chains and increased investment

Inclusive chains, from input supply through marketing, processing and retailing

x x x x x X

4Improved nutrition and dietary quality

5

Improved gender integration and women's empowerment

X x

6

Improved resilience of vulnerable populations

x x x X

7 1

Natural resources management - land, water, energy and biodiversity X x x

8 1

Climate change adaptation and mitigation X x x

9 3

A full range of inclusive financial services x x x x x x X

10 3

Rural enterprise development, with non-farm employment opportunities X x x x x x

11 1

Technical and vocational skills development, especially for young farmers and other rural entrepreneurs

x x x x X

12 6

Support to rural producer organizations and across all themes x x x

Next steps• Tomorrow: business session on the corporate M&E agenda• Issues paper and EB information paper

– Poverty definition– Methods and issues– Worksystems– Adequate funding

• Training– Impact Task Force– Induction training– Staff training programme

• EB information paper• GC seminar

thank you