377 sspin2011 danstrempel
TRANSCRIPT
SSP 2011 IN Conference
Globalization Trends
About Simba
• Founded in 1989 (and is not named after the lion)• Publisher of 5 industry newsletters:
Professional Content Report, Book Publishing Report, Educational Marketer, Electronic Education Report Yellow Pages & Directory Report
• Simba’s Professional Publishing Group produces Global STM Market Forecast Global Professional Publishing Business Information Markets
• Research and Advisor Services to almost all of the top publishers in STM and Educational Publishing
What’s in the mix?
Publishing activities we track include:
• Books• Journals• Databases• Abstract & Indexing Services• Online Services• Newsletters• Directories• Looseleafs
STM Market by Region 2006
45%
30%
20%
5%
STM North AmericaSTM EuropeSTM AsiaSTM ROW
STM Market by Region 2015
45%
28%
22%
5%
STM North AmericaSTM EuropeSTM AsiaSTM ROW
STM Market Growth by Region 2007-2015
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rev
enu
e G
row
th
STM North America
STM Europe
STM Asia
STM ROW
STM Regional Book Growth 2007-2011
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Rev
enu
e G
row
th
Books NA
Books Europe
Books Asia
Books ROW
STM Regional Journal Growth 2007-2011
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Rev
enu
e G
row
th
Journals NA
Journals Europe
Journals Asia
Journals ROW
BRIC STM Growth vs. Total Market 2007-2015
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Market
China
Russia
Brazil
India
Local Language Sales by Region 2006-2015
$-
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
$4,000.00
$4,500.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ in
mill
ion
s
STM Europe Local
STM Asia Local
STM ROW Local
But English is still the language of research…
STM English
73%
STM Local27%
Publication Authorship:Top 10 Countries 1999-2003
26%
8%
7%7%5%4%
4%3%
3%3%
30%
United StatesJapanUnited KingdomGermanyFranceChinaItalyCanadaRussiaSpainOther
Publication Authorship:Top 10 Countries 2004-2008
21%
10%
7%
6%6%4%4%3%
3%2%
34%
United StatesChinaUnited KingdomJapanGermanyFranceCanadaItalySpainIndiaOther
Publication Authorship:Winners and Losers 1999-2008
Country Percentage Point Change
United States -5%
China +6%
Countries Beyond the Top 10 +4%
Japan -2%
Russia -2%
India +1%
Germany, France, Italy -1%
Payoff: China’s % share of research
05
10152025
1999-20032004-08
Quality • • • • •
00.5
11.5
2
% Papers Top One Per CentTotal Papers 1996-2006 per ISI Science Watch May/June 2007
BRIC Higher Education Enrollment Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1970 1985 2001 2003
Brazil
China
India
Russia
Open Access is growing worldwide…
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Growth of Open Access Titles vs. Growth of All Journals, 2006-2010
Open Access as a % of Ulrich TotalDirectory of Open Access JournalsUlrich Serials Total Journal Count
But the share is small
• Ulrich’s Serials database currently lists more than 72,682 active academic journals worldwide. Based on that number, titles listed in the Directory of Open Access Journals represent about 8.2% of all journals.
• Open Access proponents often cite the lack of access in developing countries as a prime reason for changing the traditional scholarly publishing model.
• Deposit mandates and other policies intended to drive more free access are here to stay, so Open Access will be a factor to contend with.
Professional content ripe for piracy
$0.00$200,000.00$400,000.00$600,000.00$800,000.00
$1,000,000.00$1,200,000.00$1,400,000.00$1,600,000.00$1,800,000.00
Business & Investing
Professional & Technical
Science Reference
Estimated Sales Per Title Lost to Piracy in 2010, by Professional Segment