3g in bangladesh: points to ponder

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3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder Abu Saeed Khan [email protected] @ TRNB Workshop December 29, 2012

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Telecom Reporters Network of Bangladesh (TRNB) asked me to explain them the problems of 3G in Bangladesh. This is what I presented. But we discussed a lot beyond the slides. It’s always great to talk to the journalists.

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Page 1: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

3G in Bangladesh:Points to ponder

Abu Saeed [email protected]

@ TRNB WorkshopDecember 29, 2012

Page 2: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

The dark age

Page 3: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

“Main telephone” denies mobile

YEARBOOK OF STATISTICSTelecommunication Services

Chronological Time Series 1996-2005July 2007

Page 4: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

A miracle had happened in 1997

Oslo 2006

Page 5: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Ubiquitous Universal Access

Operator1 Effective Regulation

• License• Spectrum

• Interconnection• Internet Bandwidth

Universal Service

•Ubiquitous voice/data•Ubiquitous broadband

Operator2

Operatorn

1997 →

2015 →

Page 6: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Three percent of family income: Entry point for broadband adoption

Page 7: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Affordability levels

Page 8: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Policy uncertainty

20.90%

29.10% 29.50%

32.90%

40.10% 40.10%

45.40%

India Thailand Philippines China Cambodia Pakistan Bangladesh

Source: A Future Within Reach 2008

Page 9: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Networked Readiness Index 2012Rank 113 (Out of 142); Score 3.2 (1-7)

The Global Information Technology Report 2012, WEF

Page 10: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Internet and broadband penetration in the Eurasian region, 2010

Page 11: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Three percent of family income: Entry point for broadband adoption

Page 12: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Affordability levels

Page 13: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

1 EB = 250 million DVDs5 EB = A transcript of all words ever spoken

Page 14: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

“The Internet is not a humanitarian project, it’s a business”- Grant van Rooyen, SVP, Level 3 Communications

Page 15: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

“Despite falling 22% compounded annually between Q2 2007 and Q2 2012, the median price of a GigE port in Hong Kong has remained 2.7 to 5.1 times the price of a GigE port in London over the past five years.” (August 2, 2012).

Page 16: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

High, Low, and Median Hong Kong GigE IP Transit Prices by Carrier

Notes: Shaded area represents price range between low and high price by individual carrier; line shows median. Data shown are monthly price per Mbps, excluding installation and local access fees. Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) = 1,000 Mbps. Source: TeleGeography.

H

L

M

Page 17: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Ban

glad

esh

USD

100

(mea

n)The Great Asian Bandwidth Divide

Page 18: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Fiber didn’t exist when mobile came

Page 19: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

>US$

400

mill

ion

inve

sted

Page 20: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder
Page 21: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Outline of Infra-sharing Guideline

• Forbids sharing transmission capacity with anyone but NTTN.

• Forces to transfer all transmission customers to the NTTN operators.

• Prohibits one mobile operator from leasing transmission capacity to another mobile operator unless either of the NTTN declines.

Page 22: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

2008

2011

Objectives of the Guideline

Optical fiber TX has been dropped

Page 23: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Unlawful: Upsets the market

• The Foreign Private Investment (Promotion and Protection) Act, 1980• Section 29(d) of the Bangladesh Telecommunications Regulating Act, 2001

Page 24: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Screenshot on December 21, 2012

Page 25: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder
Page 26: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Impact analyses• Airtel and Robi.– CAPEX and NRO.

• Grameenphone, Banglalink and CityCell– Investment (>US$ 400 million), clientele.

• The entire mobile sector– Reliability of network under threat.

• Existing clients– Assignment of contract, sensitive customers (Banks,

MNCs and Government).

It makes 3G expensive

Page 27: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Skype is the limit• ILD traffic grew 4% in 2011, to

438 billion minutes.

• International Skype-to-Skype calls (including video calls) grew 48 % in 2011, to 145 billion minutes.

• Skype added 47 billion minutes of international traffic in 2011 — more than twice as much as all the telephone companies in the world, combined.

“If all of Skype’s on-net traffic had been routed via phone companies, global cross-border telephone traffic would have grown 13 percent in 2011, remaining in line with historical growth rates.”

TeleGeography analyst Stephan Beckert

Page 28: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Wi-Fi delivers over 75% of allUK Smartphone Data: Nielsen study

• People in UK with Android smartphones transfer 78% of their internet content using WiFi and just 22% over a mobile connection.

• The amount of mobile data ‘offloading’ - either via commercial WiFi hotspots or home and business networks - starts to increase in the evening from 5pm and reaches a peak between 11pm and midnight, when 90% of data transferred during that hour is via WiFi.

• Peaks in 3G data usage tended to be just before the working day started, at lunchtime and during the early evening commute; times when users are unlikely to be able to rely on a WiFi connection.

Page 29: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

“This is a good description, wide area networks are less demanded by data users, compared to voice/sms users that always are sensitive to coverage. “

Martin Bäckström Technology Advisor, PLDT/Smart

Page 30: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder
Page 31: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Section 21A. Social Obligation Fund.(1) The Commission will create a fund to be known as the Social Obligation Fund for

extending telecommunication facility in the areas deprived of such facility. (2) Money received from the following sources shall be credited to the Social Obligation Fund,

namely:-

(a) grants made by the Government; (b) grants made by any other local or foreign or international organization; (c) subscription received from telecommunication and radio communication operators for this purpose; and (d) any contribution received from any other legal source. (3) Money of the Social Obligation Fund shall have to be kept deposited in any scheduled

bank to be determined by the Commission. (4) The maintenance of accounts and operation of the Social Obligation Fund, its

administration, procedure for withdrawal of money of the said Fund and the rate of subscription for the Fund to be realized from the licensed operators, shall be prescribed by rules.

Page 32: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Section 21A. Social Obligation Fund.(1) The Commission will create a fund to be known as the Social Obligation Fund for

extending telecommunication facility in the areas deprived of such facility. (2) Money received from the following sources shall be credited to the Social Obligation Fund,

namely:-

(a) grants made by the Government; (b) grants made by any other local or foreign or international organization; (c) subscription received from telecommunication and radio communication operators for this purpose; and (d) any contribution received from any other legal source. (3) Money of the Social Obligation Fund shall have to be kept deposited in any scheduled

bank to be determined by the Commission. (4) The maintenance of accounts and operation of the Social Obligation Fund, its

administration, procedure for withdrawal of money of the said Fund and the rate of subscription for the Fund to be realized from the licensed operators, shall be prescribed by rules.

Page 33: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

• For carrying out the purposes of this Act, the Government may, by notification in the official Gazette, make rules consistent with the provisions of this Act.

Section 98. Power to make rules.

Page 34: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

• For carrying out the purposes of this Act, the Government may, by notification in the official Gazette, make rules consistent with the provisions of this Act.

Section 98. Power to make rules.

2G License Renewal

Page 35: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Where is the rule?

Page 36: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

A small gift for everyone

• Download it FREE!http://futureoftheinternet.org/

Page 37: 3G in Bangladesh: Points to ponder

Thanks for your attention

Abu Saeed [email protected]

@ TRNB WorkshopDecember 29, 2012