3tier fullview wind project resource assessment sample

8/13/2019 3TIER FullView Wind Project Resource Assessment Sample

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Executive Summary Sweetwater, Texas

ForYour Group, Inc.

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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3TIER has been retained by Your Group, Inc. (Group) to assess the long-term variability of the wind resource at theSweetwater, Texas project. This report provides a retrospective analysis of the past 40 years of wind speed and powerat Sweetwater, Texas. These data were derived from a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model that hasbeen statistically calibrated to match the observed data during the measurement period at Tower 1 across the Sweetwater,Texas project. Due to long-term climate variability and/or change the historic distributions of wind and power capacitydescribed here may not be indicative of future conditions.

The average simulated wind speed at 80 meters during the 40 years of record (January 1969 to December 2008) acrossall 150 turbines is 8.54 meters per second (m/s). A map showing average wind speed values across the Sweetwater,Texas site is displayed in Figure 1. (Table12contains average wind speed values for each turbine plotted in Figure 1.)The minimum of the simulated annual-mean project-average wind speed is 8.16 m/s, and the maximum is 9.03 m/s. Theprobability exceedance values for simulated project-average wind speed are shown below in Table 1 for 1, 5, and 10-yearmeans.

The average simulated power capacity at 80m during the 40 years of record (January 1969 to December 2008) across all150 turbines is 49.8%. A map of average power capacity values across the Sweetwater, Texas site using the power curvefor a single GE 1.5sle turbine is displayed in Figure 1. (Table12contains average capacity factors for each turbine plottedin Figure1.) The minimum of the simulated annual-mean project-average power capacity is 46.1%, and the maximum is54.6%. The probability exceedance values for simulated project-average power capacity are shown below in Table 2 for 1,5, and 10-year means.

All power capacities presented in this report are gross power capacities. No losses of any kind are included inthe computation of gross power capacities.

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Mean length Std. Dev. P50 P75 P90 P95 P99

1-year 0.22 8.54 8.39 8.26 8.18 8.035-year 0.10 8.54 8.48 8.42 8.38 8.31

10-year 0.07 8.54 8.50 8.45 8.43 8.38

Table 1: Exceedance Probabilities for simulated project-average wind speed

Mean length Std. Dev. P50 P75 P90 P95 P99

1-year 2.23 49.8 48.3 47.0 46.1 44.65-year 1.00 49.8 49.1 48.5 48.2 47.5

10-year 0.71 49.8 49.3 48.9 48.7 48.2

Table 2: Exceedance Probabilities for simulated project-average power capacity

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Tower 1

7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0

80m MOS-corrected wind speed

m/s

Figure 1: 40-year average (January 1969December 2008) simulated wind speed at 80m. The yellow dots denote locationsof meteorological towers, while white dots indicate wind turbines.

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35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

80m capacity factor (MOS-corrected)

%

TurbinesMet. towers

Figure 2: 40-year average (January 1969December 2008) simulated power capacity at 80m. The yellow dots denotelocations of meteorological towers, while white dots indicate wind turbines.

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Contents Sweetwater, Texas

ForYour Group, Inc.

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Contents

1 Executive summary 1

2 Model simulations by 3TIER 6

3 Project-average Long-term Wind Resource Assessment 83.1 Monthly-mean variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.2 Annual-mean variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.3 Seasonal-mean variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.4 Wind speed distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.5 Wind direction distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143.6 Diurnal variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163.7 Wind speed variability and ENSO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183.8 Tabular data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

4 Project-average Long-term Power Capacity Assessment 234.1 Monthly-mean variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234.2 Annual-mean variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

4.3 Seasonal-mean variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264.4 Power capacity distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274.5 Power direction distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294.6 Diurnal variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314.7 Power capacity variability and ENSO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334.8 Tabular data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

5 Turbine-by-turbine Long-term Assessment 38

6 Tower 1 Long-term Wind Resource Assessment 426.1 Monthly-mean variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426.2 Annual-mean variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.3 Seasonal-mean variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

6.4 Wind speed distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466.5 Wind direction distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486.6 Diurnal variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506.7 Wind speed variability and ENSO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526.8 Tabular data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

7 Tower 1 Long-term Power Capacity Assessment 577.1 Monthly-mean variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577.2 Annual-mean variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597.3 Seasonal-mean variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607.4 Power capacity distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617.5 Power direction distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 637.6 Diurnal variability of power capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

7.7 Power capacity distribution and ENSO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 677.8 Tabular data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

8 Validation of Model Results at Tower 1 728.1 Observational data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738.2 Model validation statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738.3 Monthly-mean wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 748.4 Wind speed distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 758.5 Wind direction distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 768.6 Diurnal variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 798.7 Tabular data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

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Model Simulations Sweetwater, Texas

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10010'W

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3230'N 3230'N

Tower 1

Figure 3: Map of the 90mresolution project domain. The bold red box marks the boundary of the valid study area of theproject domain. The yellow dots denote the locations of the meteorological towers, while white dots indicatewind turbines.

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Wind Project Average Sweetwater, Texas

ForYour Group, Inc.

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3 PROJECT-AVERAGE LONG-TERM WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

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This section provides an analysis of the model-simulated project-average wind resource at a height of 80 meters over thepast 40 years (January 1969December 2008). To generate the project-average wind resource, we extract the value ateach turbine and then take the average over all 150 turbine locations. A map of the 40-year average simulated wind speedat 80m is shown in Figure1 (p. 3).

3.1 Monthly-mean variability of wind speed

7

8

9

10

m/s

3

21

0

1

2

3

Anomaly(oC)

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Time Mean wind speed = 8.54

Figure 4: Top panel: Time series of monthly-mean 80m project-average wind speed for the entire 40 years of modeldata (blue line). Black line denotes the long-term average over all months; orange line denotes the 36-monthrunning mean.Bottom panel: Time series of monthly-mean Nino 3.4 anomalies. The Nino 3.4 Index provides a measure ofthe phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Values of the monthly-mean Ni no 3.4 anomaly greaterthan 0.5indicate El Nino episodes, while values less than 0.5incidate La Nina episodes.Tabular formatted data are available in Table5 (p. 20).

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth

6

7

8

9

10

m/s

Figure 5: Box-and-whisker plot of monthly-mean project-average wind speed for all 40 years. This figure displays theexpected variability of monthly-mean project-average wind speeds. Median wind speed denoted by solid linewithin the shaded box. Upper and lower boundaries of the shaded box correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles,while the whiskers denote the maximum and minimum monthly-mean wind speeds. Tabular formatted data areavailable in Table5 (p. 20).

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3.2 Annual-mean variability of wind speed

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

m/s

Mean wind speed = 8.54

Figure 6: Time series of annual-mean project-average wind speed (blue line). Black line denotes the long-term averageover all years. Tabular formatted data are available in Table 5 (p. 20).

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

m/s

Figure 7: Time series of the anomalous annual-mean project-average wind speed.

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3.3 Seasonal-mean variability of wind speed

7

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m/s

DJF=Blue MAM=Green JJA=Orange SON=Brown

7

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m/s

7

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m/s

7

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m/s

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Year

Figure 8: Time series of 3-month seasonal-mean project-average wind speed for each season. DJF (December, January,February) is blue, MAM (March, April, May) is green, JJA (June, July, August) is orange, and SON (September,October, November) is brown.



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3.4 Wind speed distribution

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Wind Speed (m/s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Frequency(%)

Weibull fit: A=9.55, k=3.10

Figure 9: Hourly distribution of simulated project-average wind speed using 1 m/sbins. Histogram is computed using all40 years of model data. (0m/s bin contains only values 0.5.) A fitted Weibull distribution is also displayedwith the scale (A) and shape (k) parameters listed in the legend. Tabular formatted data are available in Table6(p. 21).



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January

0 5 10 15 20

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Frequ

ency(%)

February

0 5 10 15 20

0

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14March

0 5 10 15 20

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April

0 5 10 15 20

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0 5 10 15 20

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14September

0 5 10 15 20

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0 5 10 15 20

Wind Speed (m/s)

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Frequency(%)

November

0 5 10 15 20

Wind Speed (m/s)

0

2

4

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1214

December

0 5 10 15 20

Wind Speed (m/s)

0

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1214

Figure 10: Hourly distribution of simulated project-average wind speed using 1m/s bins for each month. (0m/s bincontains only values 0.5.)



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3.5 Wind direction distribution

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

N

SW

NW

SE

NE

Figure 11: Wind rose of project-average wind direction. Frequencies are computed using all 40 years of model data.Directional bins are 22.5 wide, and the radial contour interval is 0.1, i.e. 10%. Tabular formatted data,including mean wind speed values and Weibull parameters for each wind direction sector, are available inTable7 (p. 22).



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S10 %

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NOctober

S10 %

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S10 %

EW

NNovember

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NDecember

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NJuly

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NAugust

S10 %

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N

S10 %

EW

NSeptember

S10 %

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S10 %

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NApril

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NMay

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NJune

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NJanuary

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NFebruary

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NMarch

S10 %

EW

N

Figure 12: Wind rose of project-average wind direction for each month. Directional bins are 22.5 wide, and the radialcontour interval is 0.1, i.e. 10%.



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3.6 Diurnal variability of wind speed

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

7

8

9

10

11

n

pee

ms

Figure 13: Diurnal cycle of simulated project-average wind speed. Data are averaged over all 40 years of model data.Tabular formatted data are available in Table4 (p. 19).

Time Zone UTC Offset 24-hour TimeHawaii 10:00 14:00 Sun 20:00 Sun 02:00 Mon 08:00 Mon 13:00 Mon

US Pacific 08:00 16:00 Sun 22:00 Sun 04:00 Mon 10:00 Mon 15:00 MonUS Eastern 05:00 19:00 Sun 01:00 Mon 07:00 Mon 13:00 Mon 18:00 Mon

Brazil Eastern 03:00 21:00 Sun 03:00 Mon 09:00 Mon 15:00 Mon 20:00 MonUTC/GMT 00:00 00:00 Mon 06:00 Mon 12:00 Mon 18:00 Mon 23:00 Mon

Central European +01:00 01:00 Mon 07:00 Mon 13:00 Mon 19:00 Mon 00:00 TuesIndia +05:30 05:30 Mon 11:30 Mon 17:30 Mon 23:30 Mon 04:30 TuesChina +08:00 08:00 Mon 14:00 Mon 20:00 Mon 02:00 Tues 07:00 Tues

Australia Eastern +10:00 10:00 Mon 16:00 Mon 22:00 Mon 04:00 Tues 09:00 Tues

All times in this report are in Coordinated Universal Standard Time (UTC), also known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).This table can be used to convert from UTC to Local Standard Time for the time zones listed above. To change toDaylight Savings Time, add +1 hour. For example, at 00:00 UTC on Monday, the local standard time in the US Easterntime zone is 19:00 on Sunday.



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ForYour Group, Inc.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

January

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

45678

9101112

WindSpeed(m/s)

February

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

45678

9101112

March

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

45678

9101112

April

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

456

789

101112

Win

dSpeed(m/s)

May

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

456

789

101112

June

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

456

789

101112

July

0 4 8 12 16 20 244

56789

101112

WindSpeed(m/s)

August

0 4 8 12 16 20 244

56789

101112

September

0 4 8 12 16 20 244

56789

101112

October

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

456789

101112

WindSpeed(m/s)

November

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

456789

101112

December

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

456789

101112

Figure 14: Diurnal cycle of simulated project-average wind speed for each month. Tabular formatted data are availablein Table4 (p. 19).



19/88

SAMPLEC

OPY

SAMPLEC

OPY


ForYour Group, Inc.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.7 Wind speed variability and ENSO

3 2 1 0 1 2 3

Nino 3.4 Anomaly

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

m/s

R2= 0.28 R2= 0.02

ONDJFM=Blue AMJJAS=Orange

Figure 15: Scatter plot of Nino 3.4 anomalies vs. 6-month seasonal-mean project-average wind speed. Blue dots denotethe mean during ONDJFM (October, November, December, January, February, and March); orange dotsdenote the mean during AMJJAS (April, May, June, July, August and September).

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

6

7

8

9

10

11

m/s

La Nina = Blue Neutral = Gray El Nino = Orange

Figure 16: Box-and-whisker plot of monthly-mean project-average wind speed for La Nina (blue), neutral (gray), and ElNino (orange) phases of ENSO. Median wind speed denoted by solid line within the shaded box. Upper andlower boundaries of the shaded box correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the whiskers denote themaximum and minimum wind speeds.



20/88

SAMPLEC

OPY

SAMPLEC

OPY


ForYour Group, Inc.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.8 Tabular data

HourofDay(UTC)

01

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1011

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Avg

Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jly

Jly

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Avg

Avg

8.408.63

8.78

8.90

9.05

9.19

9.34

9.47

9.50

9.49

9.46

9.42

9.36

9.31

9.27

9.10

8.57

8.29

8.29

8.29

8.23

8.18

8.07

8.09

8.86

8.288.50

8.70

8.93

9.19

9.36

9.51

9.59

9.61

9.60

9.55

9.46

9.36

9.27

9.19

8.80

8.36

8.29

8.32

8.31

8.26

8.24

8.18

8.04

8.87

8.578.85

9.12

9.37

9.63

9.85

10.04

10.16

10.18

10.12

10.04

9.94

9.81

9.68

9.46

9.01

8.83

8.84

8.79

8.74

8.69

8.68

8.69

8.55

9.32

8.628.92

9.29

9.65

10.00

10.27

10.47

10.60

10.60

10.50

10.35

10.18

9.97

9.74

9.12

8.85

8.77

8.65

8.50

8.43

8.39

8.46

8.52

8.50

9.39

7.938.32

9.12

9.69

10.17

10.49

10.79

10.91

10.86

10.71

10.45

10.07

9.69

9.08

8.39

8.15

7.91

7.56

7.29

7.16

7.15

7.24

7.44

7.67

8.93

7.317.83

8.82

9.65

10.29

10.70

11.05

11.18

11.09

10.82

10.39

9.87

9.37

8.42

7.92

7.56

7.07

6.59

6.29

6.17

6.18

6.31

6.51

6.77

8.51

6.366.98

8.03

9.01

9.74

10.22

10.57

10.72

10.59

10.27

9.83

9.32

8.79

7.89

7.29

6.84

6.20

5.64

5.36

5.31

5.35

5.47

5.65

5.87

7.80

5.886.56

7.57

8.46

9.09

9.53

9.86

10.01

9.91

9.62

9.24

8.77

8.28

7.74

6.78

6.43

5.81

5.22

4.92

4.83

4.91

5.03

5.21

5.44

7.30

6.277.02

7.65

8.29

8.79

9.12

9.39

9.52

9.48

9.29

9.05

8.75

8.42

8.09

7.37

6.89

6.56

6.18

5.88

5.73

5.69

5.72

5.83

5.99

7.54

7.357.86

8.36

8.79

9.15

9.44

9.66

9.78

9.76

9.68

9.53

9.36

9.16

8.97

8.73

8.14

7.73

7.53

7.32

7.14

7.02

7.02

7.03

7.02

8.40

8.328.56

8.75

8.91

9.08

9.22

9.36

9.48

9.49

9.43

9.35

9.25

9.14

9.06

9.02

8.80

8.32

8.14

8.16

8.15

8.11

8.05

8.00

7.95

8.75

8.478.68

8.87

9.01

9.15

9.27

9.39

9.48

9.48

9.45

9.42

9.37

9.32

9.28

9.26

9.14

8.65

8.29

8.28

8.27

8.20

8.13

8.03

8.09

8.87

7.648.06

8.59

9.06

9.44

9.72

9.96

10.08

10.05

9.92

9.72

9.48

9.22

8.88

8.48

8.14

7.73

7.43

7.28

7.20

7.17

7.20

7.26

7.33

8.54

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Wind Speed

m/s

Table 4: Hourly-mean values of simulated project-average wind speed. Time series graphs of data are available in Figures13and 14 (p. 16and 17).



21/88

SAMPLEC

OPY

SAMPLEC

OPY


ForYour Group, Inc.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Year

196919701971

197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983

198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995

1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Avg

Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jly

Jly

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Avg

Avg

9.21 8.68 8.82 9.28 8.26 9.20 7.38 6.83 7.01 8.73 8.03 8.10

8.32 8.20 8.96 8.74 8.84 8.53 7.44 6.97 8.20 7.63 9.47 8.38

8.59 9.57 9.73 9.18 9.32 9.07 7.32 6.64 8.02 7.92 8.95 9.03

9.16 8.86 9.09 9.57 7.83 7.76 8.13 7.69 7.80 7.99 8.43 9.038.74 8.50 10.14 9.04 8.35 8.53 7.84 7.30 8.36 8.85 10.25 10.63

9.51 10.25 9.87 10.98 9.19 8.44 7.67 7.92 7.65 9.06 8.84 8.96

10.12 9.85 10.08 10.57 8.85 9.16 7.04 7.72 7.81 8.83 9.69 8.79

9.47 9.92 9.84 10.08 8.55 8.28 8.00 7.07 6.84 8.03 7.87 8.80

8.14 8.58 9.93 8.91 9.69 8.48 7.94 7.75 7.74 7.89 8.52 9.84

8.42 8.32 9.50 9.41 8.76 8.60 7.25 7.57 6.91 7.87 7.64 9.01

8.99 8.75 8.91 8.36 8.74 8.45 7.14 7.52 6.17 8.64 8.19 8.05

8.40 8.88 10.37 9.07 8.12 9.79 7.68 8.50 7.84 7.88 8.10 8.98

7.46 8.59 9.36 9.49 8.99 8.90 8.30 7.01 7.58 8.98 8.34 8.67

9.95 8.47 9.03 9.37 9.59 8.28 8.41 7.47 7.86 8.10 9.31 8.89

8.17 7.83 9.20 9.78 8.89 8.33 7.93 6.20 8.04 8.36 9.10 8.59

7.88 9.56 9.11 9.40 9.20 8.83 6.95 6.75 7.94 8.48 9.36 8.808.73 8.88 9.51 9.18 8.09 8.50 7.05 7.41 8.72 8.48 8.48 8.29

8.67 8.67 9.12 9.07 8.70 7.36 8.96 7.45 8.84 7.82 8.34 7.11

8.73 8.72 8.92 8.06 8.30 7.50 8.71 7.82 7.21 8.80 8.58 8.70

9.15 8.50 9.76 8.98 9.41 7.61 7.61 6.97 7.64 7.50 9.34 8.54

8.80 8.19 9.42 9.02 9.74 8.17 6.92 7.89 7.25 8.71 8.59 8.47

9.35 9.16 8.88 9.32 8.93 9.37 7.81 7.48 6.59 8.71 9.02 9.06

7.79 8.25 10.08 8.90 8.88 8.53 7.24 6.89 7.45 8.65 9.36 8.30

7.93 8.73 9.44 8.44 8.23 8.02 9.35 7.47 8.63 8.05 9.09 9.08

8.05 8.59 8.89 9.42 8.80 9.05 10.32 7.99 7.92 8.09 8.89 8.96

8.71 9.18 8.52 9.22 7.72 8.20 8.43 7.11 7.34 7.94 9.41 7.73

8.94 8.50 9.10 9.46 9.87 8.53 7.88 6.71 7.46 8.83 8.83 8.49

10.05 9.10 9.76 10.11 10.91 7.91 7.78 7.46 7.29 8.70 9.28 9.789.17 8.28 8.33 9.33 8.29 8.14 7.90 7.78 7.48 8.50 7.79 8.90

8.76 8.02 9.51 9.18 9.27 10.09 7.74 6.26 6.82 8.97 8.52 8.58

9.68 9.78 8.95 9.68 9.04 9.12 8.54 6.65 8.09 8.34 8.28 9.00

9.19 9.38 9.49 9.30 9.26 9.04 8.02 7.66 7.65 9.50 7.73 9.06

8.69 9.31 7.54 9.95 9.17 8.35 7.83 7.05 7.06 9.34 9.03 8.80

9.36 9.40 9.53 9.77 9.92 8.08 7.75 7.85 6.55 7.41 8.41 8.97

8.75 8.78 8.91 10.18 7.94 7.69 7.20 6.70 7.04 7.81 9.48 9.85

8.95 9.04 9.49 9.36 10.00 8.26 7.81 7.51 7.43 8.18 8.22 9.29

8.97 7.92 8.94 9.87 8.75 8.92 6.80 7.33 7.56 8.01 9.05 8.71

9.66 8.70 9.66 9.34 8.98 7.51 7.32 7.35 7.58 8.69 9.25 9.41

8.45 9.52 9.18 9.38 8.42 7.77 6.45 7.54 7.59 8.78 8.31 9.21

9.42 9.36 9.88 9.85 9.29 9.90 8.37 6.66 6.67 8.84 8.80 10.16

8.86 8.87 9.32 9.39 8.93 8.51 7.80 7.30 7.54 8.40 8.75 8.87

8.29

8.30

8.60

8.448.88

9.02

9.03

8.56

8.62

8.27

8.16

8.63

8.47

8.73

8.37

8.518.44

8.34

8.34

8.42

8.44

8.64

8.36

8.54

8.75

8.28

8.55

9.018.33

8.48

8.75

8.77

8.50

8.58

8.35

8.63

8.40

8.62

8.38

8.93

8.54

6 7 8 9 10 11

Wind Speed

m/s

Table 5: Monthly-mean values of simulated project-average wind speed. Long-term timeseries plot is shown in Figure4(p. 8).



22/88

SAMPLEC

OPY

SAMPLEC

OPY


ForYour Group, Inc.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

WindSpeed

N

N

NE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

W

SW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

All

(m/s)

0-0.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

1

0.5-1.5

0.0

00

.00

0.01

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

20

.03

0.03

0.0

3

0.0

3

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.00

0.2

8

1.5-2.5

0.0

10

.04

0.07

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.110

.14

0.14

0.1

3

0.1

1

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.0

6

0.0

4

0.03

1.2

7

2.5-3.5

0.0

40

.12

0.17

0.2

1

0.2

2

0.2

40

.27

0.35

0.3

4

0.2

4

0.16

0.15

0.12

0.1

3

0.1

1

0.07

2.9

4

3.5-4.5

0.0

70

.23

0.28

0.3

7

0.4

1

0.370

.42

0.55

0.6

8

0.4

6

0.28

0.23

0.22

0.1

8

0.1

9

0.14

5.1

1

4.5-5.5

0.1

50

.36

0.47

0.5

5

0.5

5

0.4

70

.53

0.77

1.1

0

0.7

7

0.41

0.35

0.29

0.2

2

0.1

9

0.22

7.3

8

5.5-6.5

0.2

30

.55

0.65

0.6

2

0.5

1

0.480

.58

1.00

1.5

8

1.1

5

0.56

0.44

0.36

0.2

7

0.2

2

0.31

9.5

2

6.5-7.5

0.2

70

.68

0.76

0.6

1

0.4

6

0.440

.59

1.24

2.0

3

1.4

8

0.70

0.55

0.40

0.3

1

0.2

6

0.34

11.13

7.5-8.5

0.3

10

.64

0.71

0.3

9

0.2

8

0.310

.54

1.53

2.4

6

1.8

6

0.88

0.68

0.48

0.3

2

0.2

6

0.32

11.97

8.5-9.5

0.3

10

.57

0.57

0.2

2

0.1

3

0.130

.36

1.64

2.9

1

2.2

8

1.01

0.84

0.52

0.2

8

0.2

1

0.25

12.21

9.5-10.5

0.2

80

.47

0.42

0.1

1

0.0

4

0.040

.18

1.45

3.1

4

2.5

2

1.08

0.80

0.44

0.2

2

0.1

7

0.18

11.55

10.5-11.5

0.2

00

.37

0.26

0.0

4

0.0

2

0.020

.09

0.97

3.0

4

2.3

5

0.90

0.62

0.33

0.1

4

0.1

2

0.17

9.6

3

11.5-12.5

0.1

50

.24

0.14

0.0

1

0.0

0

0.010

.05

0.54

2.5

2

2.0

1

0.54

0.40

0.24

0.1

0

0.0

7

0.12

7.1

5

12.5-13.5

0.0

80

.16

0.06

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.02

0.30

1.8

2

1.3

5

0.27

0.28

0.16

0.0

6

0.0

4

0.06

4.6

6

13.5-14.5

0.0

50

.09

0.02

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.01

0.16

1.1

5

0.8

3

0.12

0.15

0.09

0.0

3

0.0

2

0.03

2.7

4

14.5-15.5

0.0

30

.03

0.01

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.08

0.6

8

0.4

0

0.05

0.08

0.06

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.01

1.4

7

15.5-16.5

0.0

00

.01

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.04

0.3

3

0.1

6

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.0

1

0.0

0

0.01

0.6

4

16.5-17.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.01

0.1

3

0.0

6

0.00

0.02

0.02

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.01

0.2

6

17.5-18.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

4

0.0

1

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

7

18.5-19.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

2

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

2

19.5-20.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

1

20.5-21.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

0

21.5-22.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

0

22.5-23.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

0

23.5-24.5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

0

>

24.

5

0.0

00

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.000

.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.00

0.0

0

Table

6:Distributionofsim

ulatedproject-averagewindspeedbydirection.

Long-termaveragehistogramplotisavailableinFigure9(p.

12).



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Sector Mean Speed(m/s) Weibull Scale(A) Weibull Shape(k) Frequency(%)

N 8.57 9.52 3.54 2.18

NNE 8.13 9.06 3.28 4.57NE 7.42 8.27 3.33 4.61ENE 6.16 6.86 3.31 3.25

E 5.71 6.37 3.27 2.74ESE 5.74 6.41 3.10 2.66SE 6.41 7.19 2.92 3.83

SSE 8.24 9.18 3.32 10.80S 9.65 10.71 3.58 24.14

SSW 9.60 10.62 3.79 18.04SW 8.71 9.65 3.65 7.09

WSW 8.78 9.78 3.32 5.71W 8.38 9.39 2.97 3.85

WNW 7.59 8.52 2.81 2.35

NW 7.37 8.28 2.79 1.93NNW 7.80 8.73 3.03 2.26ALL 8.54 9.55 3.10 100.00

Table 7: Simulated project-average mean wind speed, Weibull parameters, and frequency. Blank values correspond totimes with less than 10 data points. Long-term average wind rose plot is available in Figure 11 (p. 14).



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Power Project Average Sweetwater, Texas

ForYour Group, Inc.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 PROJECT-AVERAGE LONG-TERM POWER CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

This section provides an analysis of the model-simulated project-average power capacity at a height of 80 meters overthe past 40 years (January 1969December 2008). To generate the project-average power capacity, we extract the powercapacity value at each turbine and then take the average over all 150 turbine locations. Power capacity at each turbine isgenerated by running the model simulated wind speed through the power curve for a single GE 1.5sle turbine operating at80m hub height. The project-average power capacity does not include any wake losses or other adjustments. A map ofthe 40-year average simulated power capacity at 80m is shown in Figure 1 (p. 4).

4.1 Monthly-mean variability of power capacity

30

40

50

60

70

Percent

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

Anomaly(oC)

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Time Mean capacity factor = 49.8%

Figure 17: Top panel: Time series of monthly-mean 80m project-average power capacity for the entire 40 years of modeldata (blue line). Black line denotes the long-term average over all months; orange line denotes the 36-monthrunning mean.Bottom panel: Time series of monthly-mean Nino 3.4 anomalies. The Nino 3.4 Index provides a measure ofthe phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Values of the monthly-mean Nino 3.4 anomaly greater

than 0.5 indicate El Nino episodes, while values less than 0.5incidate La Nina episodes.Tabular formatted data are available in Table9 (p. 35).



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Month

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent

Figure 18: Box-and-whisker plot of monthly-mean project-average power capacity for all 40 years. This figure displaysthe expected variability of monthly-mean project-average power capacitys. Median power capacity denotedby solid line within the shaded box. Upper and lower boundaries of the shaded box correspond to the 75%and 25% quartiles, while the whiskers denote the maximum and minimum monthly-mean power capacities.Tabular formatted data are available in Table9 (p. 35).



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4.2 Annual-mean variability of power capacity

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

46

48

50

52

54

56

Percent

Mean capacity factor = 49.8%

Figure 19: Time series of annual-mean project-average power capacity (blue line). Black line denotes the long-termaverage over all years. Tabular formatted data are available in Table9 (p. 35).

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

4

2

0

2

4

6

Percen

t

Figure 20: Time series of the anomalous annual-mean project-average power capacity.



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4.3 Seasonal-mean variability of power capacity

40

50

60

70

Percent

DJF=Blue MAM=Green JJA=Orange SON=Brown

40

50

60

70

Percent

40

50

60

70

Percent

40

50

60

70

Percent

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

Figure 21: Time series of 3-month seasonal-mean project-average power capacity for each season. DJF (December,January, February) is blue, MAM (March, April, May) is green, JJA (June, July, August) is orange, and SON(September, October, November) is brown.



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4.4 Power capacity distribution

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Capacity Factor (%)

0

5

10

15

requency

Figure 22: Hourly distribution of simulated project-average power capacity using 10% bins. Histogram is computed usingall 40 years of model data. 0%bin contains only values 5%; likewise, the 100%bin contains values > 95%.Tabular formatted data are available in Table10 (p. 36).



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January

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20

Frequ

ency(%)

February

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20March

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20

April

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20

Frequency(%)

May

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20June

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20

July

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20

Frequency(%)

August

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20September

0 20 40 60 80 100

0

10

20

October

0 20 40 60 80 100

Capacity Factor (%)

0

10

20

Frequency(%)

November

0 20 40 60 80 100

Capacity Factor (%)

0

10

20

December

0 20 40 60 80 100

Capacity Factor (%)

0

10

20

Figure 23: Hourly distribution of simulated project-average power capacity using 10% bins for each month. 0% bincontains only values 5%; likewise, the 100%bin contains values > 95%.



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4.5 Power direction distribution

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

N

SW

NW

SE

NE

Figure 24: Power rose of simulated project-average power capacity. Power rose shows the percent of total power withineach sector. Percentages are computed using all 40 years of model data. Directional bins are 22.5 wide, andthe radial contour interval is 0.1, i.e. 10%. Tabular formatted data, including distribution values for eachdirection sector, are available in Table11 (p. 37).



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S10 %

EW

NOctober

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NNovember

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NDecember

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NJuly

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NAugust

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NSeptember

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NApril

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NMay

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NJune

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NJanuary

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NFebruary

S10 %

EW

N

S10 %

EW

NMarch

S10 %

EW

N

Figure 25: Power rose of simulated project-average power capacity for each month. Directional bins are 22.5 wide, andthe radial contour interval is 0.1, i.e. 10%.



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4.6 Diurnal variability of power capacity

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

ercent

Figure 26: Diurnal cycle of simulated project-average power capacity. Data are averaged over all 40 years of model data.Tabular formatted data are available in Table8 (p. 34).

Time Zone UTC Offset 24-hour TimeHawaii 10:00 14:00 Sun 20:00 Sun 02:00 Mon 08:00 Mon 13:00 Mon

US Pacific 08:00 16:00 Sun 22:00 Sun 04:00 Mon 10:00 Mon 15:00 MonUS Eastern 05:00 19:00 Sun 01:00 Mon 07:00 Mon 13:00 Mon 18:00 Mon

Brazil Eastern 03:00 21:00 Sun 03:00 Mon 09:00 Mon 15:00 Mon 20:00 MonUTC/GMT 00:00 00:00 Mon 06:00 Mon 12:00 Mon 18:00 Mon 23:00 Mon

Central European +01:00 01:00 Mon 07:00 Mon 13:00 Mon 19:00 Mon 00:00 TuesIndia +05:30 05:30 Mon 11:30 Mon 17:30 Mon 23:30 Mon 04:30 TuesChina +08:00 08:00 Mon 14:00 Mon 20:00 Mon 02:00 Tues 07:00 Tues

Australia Eastern +10:00 10:00 Mon 16:00 Mon 22:00 Mon 04:00 Tues 09:00 Tues

All times in this report are in Coordinated Universal Standard Time (UTC), also known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).This table can be used to convert from UTC to Local Standard Time for the time zones listed above. To change toDaylight Savings Time, add +1 hour. For example, at 00:00 UTC on Monday, the local standard time in the US Easterntime zone is 19:00 on Sunday.



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January

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CapacityFactor(%)

February

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80March

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

April

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CapacityFactor(%)

May

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80June

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

July

0 4 8 12 16 20 2410

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CapacityFactor(%)

August

0 4 8 12 16 20 2410

20

30

40

50

60

70

80September

0 4 8 12 16 20 2410

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

October

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CapacityFactor(%)

November

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80December

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day (UTC)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Figure 27: Diurnal cycle of simulated project-average power capacity for each month. Tabular formatted data are availablein Table8 (p. 34).



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4.7 Power capacity variability and ENSO

3 2 1 0 1 2 3

Nino 3.4 Anomaly

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Percent

R2= 0.27 R2= 0.02

ONDJFM=Blue AMJJAS=Orange

Figure 28: Scatter plot of Nino 3.4 anomalies vs. 6-month seasonal-mean project-average power capacity. Blue dotsdenote the mean during ONDJFM (October, November, December, January, February, and March); orangedots denote the mean during AMJJAS (April, May, June, July, August and September).


Month

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent

LaNina = Blue Neutral = Gray ElNino = Orange

Figure 29: Box-and-whisker plot of monthly-mean project-average power capacity for La Nina (blue), neutral (gray), andEl Nino (orange) phases of ENSO. Median power capacity denoted by solid line within the shaded box. Upperand lower boundaries of the shaded box correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the whiskers denotethe maximum and minimum monthly-mean power capacities.



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4.8 Tabular data

HourofDay(UTC)

01

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1011

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2021

22

23

Avg

Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jly

Jly

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Avg

Avg

48.551.3

53.3

54.6

56.2

57.5

59.0

60.4

60.7

60.9

60.9

60.8

60.4

59.9

59.7

57.4

50.9

47.3

47.3

47.1

46.4

46.0

45.0

44.9

54.0

46.749.4

51.9

54.5

57.4

59.3

60.8

61.6

62.1

62.2

61.8

61.0

60.1

59.2

58.4

53.8

48.3

47.3

47.4

47.2

46.6

46.2

45.6

44.2

53.9

49.853.1

56.1

58.4

61.0

63.1

64.9

65.9

66.3

66.1

65.7

64.9

64.0

62.8

60.4

55.2

52.9

53.1

52.6

51.8

51.1

50.9

51.0

49.7

58.0

50.453.5

57.1

60.3

63.5

65.9

67.7

68.8

69.2

68.8

68.0

67.0

65.3

63.2

56.4

53.0

52.4

51.2

49.4

48.3

47.5

48.1

48.8

48.9

58.0

42.747.0

55.5

61.2

65.6

68.4

71.0

72.2

72.5

71.6

69.7

66.4

62.7

56.0

47.9

45.1

42.5

38.6

35.6

33.9

33.7

34.6

36.9

39.5

53.0

34.740.4

52.4

61.9

68.4

72.0

75.0

76.2

76.0

74.2

70.4

65.2

59.5

47.9

42.7

38.7

33.7

28.6

25.2

23.6

23.3

24.3

26.3

28.9

48.7

23.329.4

42.3

55.2

64.2

69.6

73.4

75.3

74.4

71.3

66.4

59.9

52.7

40.5

33.8

29.1

23.4

18.8

16.3

15.3

15.0

15.6

17.0

18.8

41.7

18.224.4

36.4

48.3

56.5

61.9

65.9

68.0

67.2

64.1

59.4

53.1

46.5

39.5

28.2

24.9

19.6

14.9

12.2

11.0

11.1

11.7

12.9

14.4

36.3

22.830.5

38.4

46.6

52.8

56.5

59.6

61.2

60.9

59.0

56.4

52.9

48.8

45.0

36.0

31.3

28.3

24.7

21.6

19.8

18.9

18.9

19.6

20.9

38.8

35.841.7

47.7

52.8

57.0

60.1

62.6

63.8

63.9

63.1

61.7

59.9

57.7

55.5

52.8

45.8

41.2

39.3

37.2

34.9

33.2

32.8

32.9

32.7

48.6

47.550.5

52.6

54.3

56.0

57.3

58.7

60.0

60.3

60.1

59.6

58.8

57.8

57.0

56.6

54.0

48.1

45.9

46.1

46.0

45.3

44.7

44.0

43.2

52.7

49.752.3

54.4

56.1

57.6

58.9

60.1

61.0

61.1

61.0

60.9

60.6

60.2

59.8

59.7

58.1

52.1

47.6

47.6

47.6

46.8

46.1

44.9

45.3

54.6

39.143.6

49.8

55.4

59.7

62.6

64.9

66.2

66.2

65.2

63.4

60.9

58.0

53.8

49.3

45.5

41.1

38.0

36.5

35.5

34.8

34.9

35.3

35.9

49.8

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Capacity Factor

%

Table 8: Hourly-mean values of simulated project-average power capacity. Time series graphs of data are available inFigures26 and 27 (p. 31and 32).



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Year

196919701971

197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983

198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995

1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Avg

Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jly

Jly

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Avg

Avg

58.6 52.1 53.5 55.4 46.3 55.7 38.0 31.9 32.8 51.8 44.2 45.4

48.6 48.2 55.3 52.5 52.8 50.1 38.0 31.9 46.1 40.6 61.6 48.9

50.5 60.7 60.8 56.3 57.1 56.5 36.1 30.0 44.3 43.3 54.8 56.2

57.6 55.2 56.3 60.6 41.6 40.7 45.5 39.7 42.5 43.4 48.6 57.552.6 47.7 66.1 55.6 48.4 48.5 42.4 36.5 47.7 52.8 69.1 71.4

62.2 67.6 65.2 70.3 56.3 48.5 40.9 42.4 38.8 56.6 52.4 55.4

67.1 66.1 64.0 70.2 52.0 54.7 34.6 39.9 40.8 53.3 59.9 53.2

60.5 64.6 62.9 64.5 49.3 45.4 43.5 33.5 30.8 45.8 43.6 55.0

46.1 50.1 63.9 54.9 61.9 49.5 43.8 42.1 41.8 42.5 50.2 65.8

50.0 48.0 61.2 58.6 51.5 49.7 35.7 38.3 31.8 42.9 40.1 57.7

56.9 53.9 52.8 46.2 51.7 49.1 35.3 38.3 24.5 52.5 46.7 45.2

49.3 54.1 69.6 54.9 44.4 61.1 40.4 48.2 41.1 42.6 46.2 56.7

38.7 52.2 56.2 59.4 54.0 52.7 46.9 32.9 39.6 56.2 48.1 54.4

64.8 49.9 54.2 59.0 60.6 45.6 48.6 37.5 41.4 44.1 59.8 54.3

46.3 42.6 55.4 63.6 52.5 45.7 41.7 23.7 44.4 47.4 57.2 53.0

42.2 60.6 56.1 59.1 57.0 52.4 32.4 30.9 42.5 49.0 60.2 53.553.6 54.3 60.1 55.8 44.1 49.5 34.2 37.8 52.2 48.0 49.8 48.2

51.6 51.0 56.8 54.4 50.0 36.7 54.2 38.4 52.9 41.5 47.6 35.4

53.5 52.4 54.1 43.8 46.3 38.2 50.0 41.8 35.1 52.7 50.2 53.9

56.7 49.1 63.4 55.8 57.6 40.4 39.4 33.2 40.2 39.1 58.9 49.0

53.6 47.6 60.3 53.4 61.7 44.2 31.6 42.2 36.1 54.0 51.7 52.7

59.7 56.4 52.6 59.2 52.1 57.4 42.5 38.6 27.9 52.3 55.5 56.7

42.3 47.5 66.0 53.5 52.9 50.0 36.3 32.5 38.5 52.0 60.4 46.6

43.5 52.6 60.9 48.3 45.4 43.2 57.2 39.1 50.4 44.3 58.2 57.0

44.8 49.6 53.4 58.3 50.8 53.8 66.7 43.4 43.5 45.7 56.3 53.5

51.7 56.8 50.8 55.8 40.3 45.9 47.9 34.3 36.9 42.7 58.4 40.0

54.6 50.9 55.2 60.3 63.1 50.1 41.9 30.5 38.1 53.9 53.6 50.1

65.4 57.6 62.5 65.6 69.6 42.3 41.7 37.4 36.8 51.9 55.6 63.757.7 46.5 47.1 58.4 46.8 44.8 42.2 41.3 37.8 50.0 42.3 55.1

54.6 43.5 59.1 54.5 57.1 64.0 41.0 25.2 31.1 52.7 48.9 50.9

62.9 64.7 53.2 62.0 54.7 55.2 49.2 29.7 45.0 48.6 47.2 56.4

57.8 59.6 60.0 57.3 55.2 54.8 44.7 40.1 41.0 62.2 41.8 56.0

50.6 57.3 38.5 60.6 55.8 46.0 41.5 34.5 34.2 59.6 56.5 53.1

60.8 59.3 60.0 61.6 61.3 45.8 41.4 42.1 26.8 37.2 47.8 56.1

53.6 54.4 53.7 64.2 43.0 40.3 36.0 29.9 33.7 42.6 61.8 65.2

55.0 55.1 59.8 56.4 64.6 46.2 41.9 39.0 37.1 45.7 45.7 59.6

54.9 42.7 55.6 63.6 50.3 53.1 31.9 37.0 38.7 44.6 55.3 53.7

62.4 51.7 61.0 58.5 52.7 37.8 36.7 37.8 38.8 51.7 58.5 60.9

49.1 60.1 57.3 58.2 47.8 41.6 26.8 38.7 39.7 51.0 47.9 58.5

58.5 59.2 63.4 60.6 57.5 62.0 47.7 28.1 28.7 54.7 54.7 66.8

54.0 53.8 58.0 58.0 53.0 48.7 41.7 36.3 38.8 48.6 52.7 54.6

47.1

47.8

50.5

49.153.3

54.6

54.5

49.9

51.1

47.1

46.1

50.7

49.3

51.7

47.8

49.648.9

47.5

47.7

48.6

49.1

50.9

48.2

50.0

51.7

46.7

50.2

54.247.5

48.6

52.3

52.6

48.9

50.0

48.1

50.5

48.4

50.7

48.0

53.5

49.8

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Capacity Factor

%

Table 9: Monthly-mean values of simulated project-average power capacity. Long-term average timeseries plot is availablein Figure17 (p. 23).



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PowerCapacity

N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

All

(%)

0-5%

0.1

2

0.39

0.5

2

0.6

6

0.7

2

0.73

0.8

4

1.0

8

1.2

0

0.8

4

0.5

3

0.4

6

0.4

2

0.36

0.3

4

0.2

4

9.45

5%-15%

0.2

4

0.57

0.7

3

0.8

2

0.8

0

0.70

0.8

1

1.1

9

1.8

2

1.2

9

0.6

6

0.5

5

0.4

4

0.34

0.2

8

0.3

5

11.5

9

15%-25%

0.24

0.59

0.6

9

0.6

2

0.5

1

0.4

7

0.5

9

1.1

4

1.7

9

1.3

0

0.6

1

0.4

8

0.3

7

0.28

0.2

4

0.3

2

10.2

4

25%-35%

0.2

1

0.52

0.5

7

0.4

3

0.3

1

0.31

0.4

6

1.0

3

1.6

6

1.2

3

0.5

8

0.4

4

0.3

4

0.23

0.1

9

0.2

6

8.76

35%-45%

0.19

0.40

0.4

4

0.2

5

0.1

8

0.2

0

0.3

4

0.9

7

1.5

9

1.1

6

0.5

6

0.4

4

0.3

0

0.20

0.1

7

0.2

1

7.59

45%-55%

0.1

7

0.33

0.3

6

0.1

6

0.1

0

0.11

0.2

3

0.9

0

1.5

3

1.1

9

0.5

5

0.4

7

0.3

0

0.17

0.1

4

0.1

5

6.88

55%-65%

0.17

0.32

0.3

1

0.1

2

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.1

9

0.9

5

1.7

2

1.3

6

0.5

9

0.4

7

0.2

9

0.16

0.1

1

0.1

4

7.02

65%-75%

0.1

8

0.31

0.2

8

0.0

9

0.0

4

0.0

4

0.1

3

0.9

4

1.9

7

1.5

8

0.6

9

0.5

3

0.2

8

0.15

0.1

2

0.1

1

7.42

75%-85%

0.19

0.33

0.2

8

0.0

6

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.1

0

0.9

4

2.4

8

1.9

8

0.7

9

0.5

6

0.3

1

0.14

0.1

2

0.1

3

8.44

85%-95%

0.2

5

0.46

0.3

0

0.0

3

0.0

1

0.0

2

0.0

9

1.0

2

4.1

3

3.2

6

1.0

2

0.7

1

0.4

2

0.18

0.1

4

0.2

1

12.2

5

95%-100%

0.21

0.36

0.1

3

0.0

1

0.0

0

0.0

1

0.0

4

0.6

3

4.2

6

2.8

7

0.5

1

0.5

9

0.3

8

0.15

0.0

9

0.1

5

10.3

7

Table

10:Distributionofsimulatedproject-averagepowercapacitybydirection.

Long-termaverage

histogramplotisavailableinFigure

22(p.

27).



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Sector Mean Capacity Factor(%) Percent Total Power(%)

N 51.1 2.24

NNE 45.9 4.21NE 37.8 3.50ENE 22.7 1.48

E 18.0 0.99ESE 18.6 0.99SE 26.2 2.01

SSE 46.5 10.09S 61.2 29.64

SSW 61.5 22.25SW 52.9 7.52

WSW 53.0 6.08W 48.5 3.75

WNW 40.0 1.89

NW 37.9 1.46NNW 41.7 1.89ALL 49.8 100.00

Table 11: Simulated project-average mean power capacity factor and percent of total power. Blank values correspond totimes with less than 10 data points. Long-term average power rose plot is available in Figure 24 (p. 29).



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Turbine-by-turbine Sweetwater, Texas

ForYour Group, Inc.

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5 TURBINE-BY-TURBINE LONG-TERM ASSESSMENT

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Turbine Hub Height(m) Turbine Type Wind Speed(m/s) Power Capacity(%)

150 80 GE 1.5sle 8.34 47.6149 80 GE 1.5sle 8.43 48.1148 80 GE 1.5sle 8.39 47.9147 80 GE 1.5sle 8.27 47.1146 80 GE 1.5sle 8.27 47.2145 80 GE 1.5sle 8.33 47.6144 80 GE 1.5sle 8.30 47.6143 80 GE 1.5sle 8.28 47.5142 80 GE 1.5sle 8.27 47.4

141 80 GE 1.5sle 8.26 47.3140 80 GE 1.5sle 8.02 45.9139 80 GE 1.5sle 8.31 47.7138 80 GE 1.5sle 8.34 47.9137 80 GE 1.5sle 8.15 46.7136 80 GE 1.5sle 8.30 47.5135 80 GE 1.5sle 8.21 46.9134 80 GE 1.5sle 8.19 46.8133 80 GE 1.5sle 8.24 47.1132 80 GE 1.5sle 8.36 47.8131 80 GE 1.5sle 8.22 46.9130 80 GE 1.5sle 8.27 47.2

129 80 GE 1.5sle 8.29 47.3128 80 GE 1.5sle 8.15 46.5127 80 GE 1.5sle 8.08 45.8126 80 GE 1.5sle 8.17 46.3125 80 GE 1.5sle 8.24 46.7124 80 GE 1.5sle 8.25 46.8123 80 GE 1.5sle 8.27 46.9122 80 GE 1.5sle 8.23 46.7121 80 GE 1.5sle 8.14 46.2120 80 GE 1.5sle 8.21 46.6119 80 GE 1.5sle 8.30 48.2118 80 GE 1.5sle 8.49 49.5117 80 GE 1.5sle 8.56 49.5116 80 GE 1.5sle 8.42 49.0115 80 GE 1.5sle 8.56 49.9114 80 GE 1.5sle 8.39 49.0113 80 GE 1.5sle 8.39 48.6112 80 GE 1.5sle 8.41 48.8111 80 GE 1.5sle 8.50 49.4

Table 12: 40-year average wind speed and power capacity at each turbine



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110 80 GE 1.5sle 8.17 46.9

109 80 GE 1.5sle 8.26 47.5108 80 GE 1.5sle 8.38 48.3107 80 GE 1.5sle 8.38 48.3106 80 GE 1.5sle 8.33 47.9105 80 GE 1.5sle 8.47 48.9104 80 GE 1.5sle 8.53 49.4103 80 GE 1.5sle 8.43 48.7102 80 GE 1.5sle 8.43 48.6101 80 GE 1.5sle 8.49 49.1100 80 GE 1.5sle 8.50 49.099 80 GE 1.5sle 8.41 48.698 80 GE 1.5sle 8.42 48.697 80 GE 1.5sle 8.67 50.6



72 80 GE 1.5sle 8.53 49.771 80 GE 1.5sle 8.54 49.8

Table 12: 40-year average wind speed and power capacity at each turbine (contd)



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70 80 GE 1.5sle 8.59 50.3




32 80 GE 1.5sle 9.40 56.231 80 GE 1.5sle 9.22 55.4




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30 80 GE 1.5sle 9.11 54.8



4 80 GE 1.5sle 8.70 51.33 80 GE 1.5sle 8.67 51.02 80 GE 1.5sle 8.60 50.51 80 GE 1.5sle 8.65 50.5




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Wind Tower 1 Sweetwater, Texas

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6 TOWER 1 LONG-TERM WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

This section provides an analysis of the model-simulated wind resource at a height of 80 meters over the past 40years (January 1969December 2008) at Tower 1, located at latitude 32.411667, longitude 100.354444at the Sweet-water, Texas project. The average simulated wind speed at 80 meters during the 40 years of record (January 1969 toDecember 2008) is 8.05meters per second (m/s) at Tower 1. The minimum of the annual-mean wind speed is 7.66, andthe maximum is 8.56 m/s. The standard deviation of the annual-mean wind speed is 0.22 m/s.

All model wind resource data presented in this section are statistically corrected to remove the bias and adjust the varianceof the NWP. (See Section8 for details concerning the statistical correction.)

6.1 Monthly-mean variability of wind speed

6

7

8

9

10

m/s

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

Anomaly(oC

)

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Time Mean wind speed = 8.05

Figure 30: Top panel: Time series of monthly-mean 80m wind speed at Tower 1 for the entire 40 years of model data(blue line). Black line denotes the long-term average over all months; orange line denotes the 36-monthrunning mean.

Bottom panel: Time series of monthly-mean Nino 3.4 anomalies. The Nino 3.4 Index provides a measure ofthe phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Values of the monthly-mean Nino 3.4 anomaly greaterthan 0.5 indicate El Nino episodes, while values less than 0.5incidate La Nina episodes.Tabular formatted data are available in Table14 (p. 54).



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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth

5

6

7

8

9

10

m/s

Figure 31: Box-and-whisker plot of monthly-mean wind speed at Tower 1 for all 40 years. This figure displays the expectedvariability of monthly-mean wind speeds. Median wind speed denoted by solid line within the shaded box.Upper and lower boundaries of the shaded box correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the whiskersdenote the maximum and minimum monthly-mean wind speeds. Tabular formatted data are available in Table14(p. 54).



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3tier fullview wind project resource assessment sample

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