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FullViewW I N D A S S E S S M E N T Site Validation

Analysis

PROJECT DATE

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study January 20, 2009Tower 12131

FOR CONTACT

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Copyright c!2009 3TIER, Inc.All rights reserved.

Introduction Tower 12131Western Wind and Solar Integration StudyFor National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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1 INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3TIER has been retained by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to assess the wind resource over the westernregion of the United States utilizing a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This report examines the quality ofthe NWP simulations used for that assessment at a single point within the study area. For this report, the observationswere taken at Tower 12131 in Idaho (latitude 42.06213, longitude !116.0782).

The average observed wind speed (for all valid observational times) at 20 meters during the 23 months of the period ofrecord (January, 2004 to November, 2005) is 5.90 m/s with an hourly standard deviation of 3.08 m/s at Tower 12131.This compares to a modeled 20m wind speed of 5.01 m/s with a 2.09 m/s standard deviation for these same times.

This report presents a comparison of the simulated winds with the observations at the reference tower. The focus of theverification is on the model’s ability to reproduce the observed variability of the wind resource at daily and monthly timescales, while preserving the distribution of hourly wind speeds and the diurnal characteristics of the wind.

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.1

Contents Western Wind and Solar Integration StudyFor National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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Contents

1 Introduction 1

2 Model simulations by 3TIER 3

3 Validation of Model Results at Tower 12131 53.1 Observational Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.2 Model validation statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.3 Monthly-mean wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.4 Wind speed distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.5 Wind direction distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 Diurnal variability of wind speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.7 Tabular data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13


Model Simulations Western Wind and Solar Integration StudyFor National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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2 MODEL SIMULATIONS BY 3TIER. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The assessment of the wind resource across Western U.S. presented in this report is based on 23 months of simulated data(January, 2004 through November, 2005) using a regional nonhydrostatic primitive equation model of the atmosphere.

3TIER configured the NWP model using nested grids to simulate the wind resource over the Western U.S. region. Somedetails of the NWP configuration are shown below in Table 1. The extent of the coarsest grid was selected to capturethe e!ect of synoptic weather events on the wind resource at the site, as well as to allow the model to develop regional,thermally-driven circulations. The increasingly fine 54km, 18km, 6km and 2km grids were selected to model the e!ectof local terrain and local scale atmospheric circulations. A map of the meteorological towers used to validate the modelsimulations is shown in Figure 1.

A detailed discussion of the model’s ability to recreate the observed winds at Tower 12131 is contained in Section 3.

Parameter ValueMesoscale numerical weather prediction model WRFHorizontal resolution of valid study area 2kmNumber of vertical levels 37Elevation data base 3 second SRTMVegetation data base 30 second USGSSoil classification 30 second USGSSurface parameterization Monin-Obukhov similarity modelBoundary layer parameterization YSU model (MRF with entrainment)Land surface scheme 5-layer soil di!usivity model

Table 1: Numerical weather prediction model configuration


Validation Tower 12131Western Wind and Solar Integration StudyFor National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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3 VALIDATION OF MODEL RESULTS AT TOWER 12131. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.1 Observational Data

Approximately 23 months of data (January, 2004 to November, 2005) from a 20m meteorological tower (Tower 12131) atWestern U.S. were used in this analysis. This tower will be referred to as the reference tower throughout this report. Thedata at 20m were used to assess the quality of the model simulations at 20m.

The observed and modeled wind speeds shown in this section represent the mean of all times during the month for which avalid wind speed observation was available. Therefore they should not be interpreted as estimates of the true wind speedsat the site, but rather a verification of the model’s ability to reproduce the available observed wind speeds. Any month orhour missing greater than 50% of the available observations is omitted from the following figures, tables, and statistics.

It should be noted that meteorological observations provided to 3TIER are not allowed to influence the raw model simu-lations.

3.2 Model validation statistics

Table 2 presents some basic statistical measures of the model performance relative to the measured winds at the referencetower during the observational period. For reference, the correlation (r) of the reference tower data to itself is perfect andhence the explained variance (r2) value is 1.0.

Comparison ValueCorrelation of monthly-mean simulated wind speed to observed 0.72RMS error of monthly-mean simulated wind speed 0.94 m/sCorrelation of daily-mean simulated wind speed to observed 0.68RMS error of daily-mean simulated wind speed 1.83 m/s

Table 2: Correlation (r) and root mean square (RMS) error statistics of modeled wind speeds.



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3.3 Monthly-mean wind speed

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11

Month2004 2005

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s

)

ObservedSimulated, r2 = 0.51

Figure 2: A comparison of the observed and simulated monthly-mean 20m wind speed at Tower 12131. Explainedvariance (r2) value of each data source relative to the monthly reference tower wind speeds are shown in thelegend. Months missing greater than 50% of the available observations are not plotted. Tabular formatted dataare available in Table 3 (p. 13).



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3.4 Wind speed distribution

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2002468

10121416182022

Freq

uenc

y (%

)

Observed: A=6.66, k=1.99

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2002468

10121416182022

Freq

uenc

y (%

)

Simulated: A=5.64, k=2.55

Figure 3: A comparison of the observed and simulated hourly wind speed distributions at 20m at Tower 12131 duringthe period of record, using 1 m/s bins. (0 m/s bin contains only values ! 0.5) Fitted Weibull distributionsare also displayed with the scale(A) and shape(k) parameters listed in the legend. Tabular formatted data areavailable in Tables 6 and 7 (p. 16 and 17).



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3.5 Wind direction distribution

Observed

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

N

SW

NW

SE

NE

Simulated

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

N

SW

NW

SE

NE

Figure 4: Wind roses at Tower 12131 for observations and simulated model output for the period of record (January,2004–November, 2005). Directional bins are 22.5! wide, and the radial contour interval is 10%. Tabularformatted data, including mean wind speed values and Weibull parameters for each wind direction sector, areavailable in Tables 8 and 9 (p. 18 and 19).



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S 10 %

EW

NOctober

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NNovember

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NDecember

S 10 %

EW

NS 10 %

EW

NJuly

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NAugust

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NSeptember

S 10 %

EW

NS 10 %

EW

NApril

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NMay

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NJune

S 10 %

EW

NS 10 %

EW

NJanuary

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NFebruary

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NMarch

S 10 %

EW

N

Figure 5: Wind rose of observed wind direction at Tower 12131 for each month. Directional bins are 22.5! wide, and theradial contour interval is 0.1, i.e. 10%.



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S 10 %

EW

NOctober

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NNovember

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NDecember

S 10 %

EW

NS 10 %

EW

NJuly

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NAugust

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NSeptember

S 10 %

EW

NS 10 %

EW

NApril

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NMay

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NJune

S 10 %

EW

NS 10 %

EW

NJanuary

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NFebruary

S 10 %

EW

N

S 10 %

EW

NMarch

S 10 %

EW

N

Figure 6: Wind rose of simulated wind direction at Tower 12131 for each month. Directional bins are 22.5! wide, andthe radial contour interval is 0.1, i.e. 10%.

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.10


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3.6 Diurnal variability of wind speed

0 4 8 12 16 20 24Hour of Day (UTC)

3

4

5

6

7

8

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s

)

ObservedSimulated

Figure 7: A comparison of the diurnal cycle of observed and simulated 20m wind speed at Tower 12131. Data areaveraged over the period of record (January, 2004–November, 2005). Hours missing greater than 50% of theavailable observations are not plotted. Tabular formatted data are available in Tables 4 and 5 (p. 14 and 15).

Time Zone UTC O!set 24-hour TimeHawaii !10:00 14:00 Sun 20:00 Sun 02:00 Mon 08:00 Mon 13:00 Mon

US Pacific !08:00 16:00 Sun 22:00 Sun 04:00 Mon 10:00 Mon 15:00 MonUS Eastern !05:00 19:00 Sun 01:00 Mon 07:00 Mon 13:00 Mon 18:00 Mon

Brazil Eastern !03:00 21:00 Sun 03:00 Mon 09:00 Mon 15:00 Mon 20:00 MonUTC/GMT ±00:00 00:00 Mon 06:00 Mon 12:00 Mon 18:00 Mon 23:00 Mon

Central European +01:00 01:00 Mon 07:00 Mon 13:00 Mon 19:00 Mon 00:00 TuesIndia +05:30 05:30 Mon 11:30 Mon 17:30 Mon 23:30 Mon 04:30 TuesChina +08:00 08:00 Mon 14:00 Mon 20:00 Mon 02:00 Tues 07:00 Tues

Australia Eastern +10:00 10:00 Mon 16:00 Mon 22:00 Mon 04:00 Tues 09:00 Tues

All times in this report are in Coordinated Universal Standard Time (UTC), also known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).This table can be used to convert from UTC to Local Standard Time for the time zones listed above. To change toDaylight Savings Time, add +1 hour. For example, at 00:00 UTC on Monday, the local standard time in the US Easterntime zone is 19:00 on Sunday.

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.11


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January

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s

)

February

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

March

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

April

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s

)

May

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

June

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

July

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s

)

August

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

September

0 4 8 12 16 20 24345678

October

0 4 8 12 16 20 24Hour of Day (UTC)

345678

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s

)

November

0 4 8 12 16 20 24Hour of Day (UTC)

345678

Observed Simulated

December

0 4 8 12 16 20 24Hour of Day (UTC)

345678

Figure 8: A comparison of the diurnal cycle of observed and simulated 20m wind speed for each month at Tower 12131.Hours missing greater than 50% of the available observations are not plotted. Tabular formatted data areavailable in Tables 4 and 5 (p. 14 and 15).

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.12


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3.7 Tabular data

Month Observed Simulated Bias Availability(%)

01/2004 6.11 5.71 -0.39 90.102/2004 6.58 5.59 -0.99 92.403/2004 6.37 5.15 -1.22 95.704/2004 5.76 5.11 -0.65 96.805/2004 5.97 4.63 -1.34 96.506/2004 6.07 4.86 -1.21 99.407/2004 5.61 4.30 -1.31 99.608/2004 5.93 4.57 -1.36 98.909/2004 5.45 4.47 -0.98 98.610/2004 6.00 5.23 -0.77 97.211/2004 5.36 4.66 -0.70 92.512/2004 6.95 5.77 -1.19 98.501/2005 5.83 5.42 -0.40 83.102/2005 5.57 4.89 -0.68 89.603/2005 6.59 5.31 -1.27 96.004/2005 6.23 5.57 -0.66 93.805/2005 6.25 5.04 -1.21 99.606/2005 5.20 4.83 -0.37 99.307/2005 5.43 4.77 -0.67 99.508/2005 5.42 4.34 -1.08 98.909/2005 5.11 4.53 -0.59 98.210/2005 5.08 4.89 -0.19 94.911/2005 8.88 7.47 -1.41 30.8

All 5.90 5.01 -0.89 93.0

Table 3: Monthly-mean 20m wind speeds (m/s) at Tower 12131. Time series graph of data is available in Figure 2 (p.6).

Observed = mean of all available wind speed observationsSimulated = mean of simulated model output for times with observationsBias = Simulated ! Observed

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.13


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Observations

Hour

of D

ay (U

TC)

0123456789

1011121314151617181920212223

AvgJan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jly

Jly

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Avg

Avg6.175.875.855.525.745.775.895.896.346.496.416.216.326.135.925.525.485.625.675.916.146.236.166.185.97

6.336.356.446.516.005.996.196.005.865.535.705.935.555.405.465.825.746.055.966.566.766.616.726.886.09

6.866.716.976.536.266.006.015.686.005.906.036.426.356.326.536.596.256.296.446.697.117.037.237.216.48

6.936.926.105.985.175.415.476.076.035.835.675.645.305.905.535.545.555.516.125.936.176.467.117.145.99

6.796.776.326.355.795.805.965.935.665.445.865.635.595.715.565.345.725.845.946.486.686.977.177.356.11

5.826.316.306.105.615.726.066.116.225.935.474.995.195.135.214.985.274.964.965.105.435.696.276.435.64

6.256.406.236.166.326.886.997.016.486.045.645.495.355.275.234.493.953.944.094.354.274.515.066.095.52

5.215.595.656.115.946.566.666.896.496.135.855.875.755.665.235.025.004.984.944.885.025.245.545.935.68

6.406.646.375.875.575.125.254.824.824.924.654.715.124.744.764.864.554.354.805.155.265.536.066.305.28

5.765.775.875.445.565.595.305.344.835.365.415.495.575.435.215.375.295.225.525.645.855.976.106.125.55

7.236.676.386.246.336.306.295.915.685.565.815.535.545.385.656.085.745.836.206.536.887.537.087.406.24

7.077.026.787.037.337.176.856.806.936.906.716.726.907.247.117.117.226.686.756.576.727.087.007.146.95

6.346.386.256.115.905.976.046.025.905.795.725.685.665.635.555.475.395.355.535.735.956.146.416.635.90

3 4 5 6 7 8Wind Speed

m/s

Table 4: Hourly-mean values of observed 20m wind speed at Tower 12131. Hours missing greater than 50% of theavailable observations are not plotted. Time series graphs are available in Figures 7 and 8 (p. 11 and 12).

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.14


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Simulated

Hour

of D

ay (U

TC)

0123456789

1011121314151617181920212223

AvgJan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jly

Jly

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Avg

Avg5.295.595.775.905.915.955.855.815.715.755.615.645.655.655.465.405.465.295.235.495.565.435.195.175.57

5.495.345.355.295.215.245.305.325.315.315.255.095.175.165.155.094.955.045.155.325.385.395.315.545.25

5.775.405.115.065.095.015.055.115.105.024.914.824.764.834.804.894.865.195.555.585.765.895.925.925.23

6.265.745.204.964.614.774.854.994.854.784.814.754.834.874.905.065.285.585.805.946.086.276.276.265.33

5.815.725.184.634.624.444.304.284.404.254.294.244.224.204.104.284.554.835.135.405.705.765.885.934.84

5.785.624.944.554.574.524.464.474.384.304.434.334.414.264.064.144.424.795.105.425.695.865.815.914.85

5.415.164.804.704.524.584.514.454.164.284.264.234.154.133.763.593.614.044.384.755.065.305.355.634.53

5.094.924.494.444.624.564.474.294.204.294.374.324.244.183.973.743.813.974.214.544.854.995.075.184.45

5.144.814.314.334.334.094.114.204.274.224.224.154.214.294.214.164.134.344.674.935.135.155.155.264.50

5.335.265.185.145.185.245.265.235.145.255.065.004.984.904.754.844.534.734.965.055.225.084.985.115.06

5.675.675.825.975.785.795.845.815.745.485.165.065.044.874.814.844.844.915.085.175.285.235.155.465.36

5.525.785.825.885.825.946.006.096.035.975.665.685.675.815.775.885.955.715.605.635.655.595.505.485.77

5.555.395.104.994.954.934.914.914.844.824.774.714.714.704.574.584.634.815.035.255.445.505.485.585.01

3 4 5 6 7Wind Speed

m/s

Table 5: Hourly-mean values of simulated 20m wind speed at Tower 12131. Hours missing greater than 50% of theavailable observations are not plotted. All model values are computed only for times with valid observations.Time series plots are available in Figures 7 and 8 (p. 11 and 12).

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.15


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Win

dSpee

dN

NN

EN

EEN

EE

ESE

SE

SSE

SSSW

SW

WSW

WW

NW

NW

NN

WA

ll(m

/s)

0-

0.5

0.05

0.01

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.04

0.08

0.11

0.04

0.04

0.08

0.08

0.11

0.06

0.06

0.08

1.00

0.5

-1.

50.

230.

120.

270.

220.

270.

320.

290.

240.

300.

290.

430.

310.

400.

340.

240.

204.

461.

5-

2.5

0.33

0.29

0.23

0.30

0.42

0.54

0.33

0.20

0.32

0.65

0.81

0.62

0.65

0.55

0.52

0.44

7.21

2.5

-3.

50.

350.

260.

280.

350.

490.

580.

460.

250.

500.

921.

301.

500.

950.

960.

660.

5910

.41

3.5

-4.

50.

270.

250.

210.

500.

650.

820.

550.

330.

701.

231.

831.

671.

351.

000.

750.

5412

.65

4.5

-5.

50.

270.

200.

310.

520.

751.

040.

750.

420.

591.

522.

291.

761.

120.

790.

450.

4513

.23

5.5

-6.

50.

180.

190.

200.

520.

961.

270.

610.

260.

751.

552.

451.

570.

720.

820.

450.

1812

.67

6.5

-7.

50.

080.

060.

120.

421.

021.

660.

350.

310.

851.

142.

441.

190.

590.

510.

420.

1711

.33

7.5

-8.

50.

070.

090.

050.

190.

701.

400.

170.

380.

540.

812.

110.

890.

460.

420.

340.

178.

788.

5-

9.5

0.03

0.04

0.11

0.07

0.47

1.01

0.08

0.27

0.27

0.42

1.53

0.68

0.38

0.23

0.13

0.05

5.79

9.5

-10

.50.

030.

010.

040.

020.

290.

590.

030.

170.

260.

401.

520.

640.

220.

170.

120.

054.

5510

.5-

11.5

0.01

0.01

0.10

0.04

0.10

0.31

0.01

0.14

0.10

0.23

1.09

0.51

0.28

0.06

0.06

0.02

3.05

11.5

-12

.50.

010.

000.

010.

010.

080.

140.

000.

070.

060.

150.

720.

420.

110.

040.

030.

031.

8812

.5-

13.5

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.05

0.07

0.01

0.01

0.04

0.08

0.52

0.37

0.06

0.01

0.01

0.00

1.25

13.5

-14

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

050.

040.

000.

010.

030.

040.

240.

180.

040.

010.

000.

010.

6614

.5-

15.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.03

0.17

0.12

0.03

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.39

15.5

-16

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

010.

000.

000.

000.

010.

010.

130.

120.

020.

010.

000.

000.

3116

.5-

17.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.08

0.04

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.19

17.5

-18

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

020.

010.

030.

030.

030.

010.

000.

000.

000.

1218

.5-

19.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.03

19.5

-20

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

010.

000.

010.

030.

010.

000.

000.

000.

000.

0520

.5-

21.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

21.5

-22

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

010.

000.

010.

000.

000.

000.

0122

.5-

23.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

23.5

-24

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

00>

24.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Tab

le6:

Distr

ibut

ion

ofob

serv

ed20

mw

ind

spee

dby

dire

ctio

nat

Tow

er12

131.

Histo

gram

ofda

tais

avai

labl

ein

Fig

ure

3(p

.7)

.

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.16


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Win

dSpee

dN

NN

EN

EEN

EE

ESE

SE

SSE

SSSW

SW

WSW

WW

NW

NW

NN

WA

ll(m

/s)

0-

0.5

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.5

-1.

50.

220.

150.

160.

140.

170.

080.

080.

070.

100.

130.

130.

070.

160.

120.

240.

192.

201.

5-

2.5

0.47

0.28

0.37

0.42

0.64

0.35

0.42

0.41

0.53

0.63

0.65

0.56

0.59

0.55

0.58

0.58

8.04

2.5

-3.

50.

590.

470.

540.

720.

720.

740.

620.

741.

011.

411.

431.

271.

131.

001.

110.

6614

.15

3.5

-4.

50.

770.

921.

100.

751.

321.

101.

140.

961.

432.

072.

011.

751.

341.

041.

060.

7319

.49

4.5

-5.

50.

610.

790.

920.

781.

421.

481.

041.

361.

682.

762.

361.

460.

920.

810.

470.

4719

.32

5.5

-6.

50.

350.

400.

470.

561.

370.

910.

681.

141.

272.

442.

301.

340.

650.

520.

310.

2915

.01

6.5

-7.

50.

260.

240.

210.

360.

540.

270.

240.

820.

751.

722.

151.

140.

380.

310.

140.

159.

707.

5-

8.5

0.16

0.11

0.04

0.11

0.16

0.02

0.07

0.37

0.44

1.25

1.78

0.68

0.24

0.12

0.19

0.04

5.79

8.5

-9.

50.

080.

040.

030.

070.

150.

020.

010.

170.

150.

541.

010.

540.

100.

050.

100.

063.

139.

5-

10.5

0.02

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.10

0.10

0.40

0.81

0.18

0.03

0.04

0.01

0.02

1.75

10.5

-11

.50.

020.

000.

000.

030.

000.

020.

000.

030.

060.

230.

430.

120.

010.

000.

000.

000.

9411

.5-

12.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.06

0.16

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.27

12.5

-13

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

020.

010.

080.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

1013

.5-

14.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.04

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.05

14.5

-15

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

010.

030.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

0315

.5-

16.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

16.5

-17

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

0017

.5-

18.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

18.5

-19

.50.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

000.

0019

.5-

20.5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Tab

le7:

Distr

ibut

ion

ofsim

ulat

ed20

mw

ind

spee

dby

dire

ctio

nat

Tow

er12

131.

All

mod

elva

lues

are

com

pute

don

lyfo

rtim

esw

ith

valid

obse

rvat

ions

.H

isto

gram

ofda

tais

avai

labl

ein

Fig

ure

3(p

.7)

.

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.17


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sector Mean Speed(m/s) Weibull Scale(A) Weibull Shape(k) Frequency(%)

N 3.88 4.35 1.77 1.92NNE 4.16 4.69 1.94 1.52NE 4.58 5.11 1.62 1.97ENE 4.81 5.43 2.18 3.22E 6.02 6.80 2.23 6.39

ESE 6.48 7.29 2.63 9.81SE 4.57 5.16 2.16 3.71SSE 6.04 6.77 1.69 3.24S 5.79 6.54 2.10 5.40

SSW 5.88 6.64 2.16 9.57SW 7.09 8.00 2.27 19.81

WSW 6.47 7.30 1.98 12.72W 5.36 6.04 1.82 7.51

WNW 4.96 5.60 1.99 5.99NW 4.80 5.42 2.00 4.23

NNW 4.21 4.74 1.84 2.99ALL 5.90 6.66 1.99 100.0

Table 8: Observed 20m mean wind speed, Weibull parameters, and frequency at Tower 12131. Blank values correspondto times with less than 10 data points. Wind rose of data is available in Figure 4 (p. 8).

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.18


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sector Mean Speed(m/s) Weibull Scale(A) Weibull Shape(k) Frequency(%)

N 4.31 4.87 2.31 3.55NNE 4.40 4.94 2.85 3.40NE 4.27 4.78 2.97 3.85ENE 4.56 5.14 2.45 4.00E 4.73 5.30 2.98 6.51

ESE 4.55 5.07 3.43 4.98SE 4.41 4.92 3.27 4.32SSE 5.20 5.83 2.94 6.18S 5.03 5.65 2.77 7.54

SSW 5.63 6.31 2.86 13.64SW 6.14 6.90 2.72 15.36

WSW 5.36 6.02 2.75 9.11W 4.42 4.97 2.58 5.57

WNW 4.29 4.83 2.63 4.56NW 3.98 4.49 2.28 4.22

NNW 3.93 4.44 2.27 3.21ALL 5.01 5.64 2.55 100.0

Table 9: Simulated 20m mean wind speed, Weibull parameters, and frequency at Tower 12131. All model values arecomputed only for times with valid observations; blank values correspond to times with less than 10 data points.Wind rose of data is available in Figure 4 (p. 8).

c! 2009 3TIER, Inc.19

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