4. wind energy leading the clean technology revolution by t. kerr

8/9/2019 4. Wind Energy Leading the Clean Technology Revolution by T. Kerr

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Wind Energy:

leading the clean

technology

revolution

OECD/IEA 2009

Technology RoadmapWind energy

OECD/IEA 2009

Tom Kerr

Quantum Leap for Wind in Asia

Structured Consultation

Manila, the Philippines

21 June 2010

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Asian Development Bank.


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IEA energy technology activities

Where are we today?

Global Gaps analysis of low-carbon energy RD&D spending In-depth country reviews

Where do we need to be in 2030? 2050?

OECD/IEA 2009


2050: Energy Technology Perspectives

How do we get there?

Low carbon technology roadmaps

Accelerating Energy Innovation project on technology RD&Dpolicy

Low-carbon energy technology platform


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A sustainable energy future:

the 450 Scenario

36

38

40

42

Reference Scenario

OECD+

Efficiency 45%

Renewables &

biofuels 21%

Nuclear 13%

CCS 20%

WorldBy region

Abatement by technology, 2030

Efficiency 57%

OECD/IEA 2009


OECD

/IEA

2009

Efficiency measures account for 2/3 of the 3.8Gt abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute 20%.

With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+ region, financing will be key to the

energy sector meeting a 450 ppm trajectory.

Source: Early excerpt of WEO 2009 for Bangkok UNFCCC meeting

2007 2015 2020 2025 2030

26

28

30

32

450 Scenario

Other Major

Economies

Other

Countries

3.8 Gt

13.8 Gt

Nuclear 10%

CCS 10%

Efficiency 67%

Renewables &

biofuels 19%Nuclear 8%CCS 6%

Efficiency 55%

Renewables &biofuels 34%

Nuclear 9%

Renewables &

biofuels 23%

Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009


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Wind power growing rapidly

OECD/IEA 2009


Wind power shows exponential growth butmarket forces alone may not be enough

to ensure high quality deployment.


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Wind energy status today:

China and India in the top 5

OECD/IEA 2009


MW


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Wind power global potential to 2050

OECD/IEA 2009


Must add 17,000 turbines a year for the next 40 years


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Global map of regional wind power capacity

how do we get there from here?

OECD/IEA 2009



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What are the goals

of a regional wind power effort in Asia?

What are the main rationales?

Local pollution reduction (air, soil, water) Economic growth

Affordable electrification

OECD/IEA 2009


ress ng g wa er usage o o er resources

Energy security through production of a local energy resource

Climate mitigation

the answer will help calibrate ambition, economic

support; and target setting

Process will be more meaningful at the national level


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Regional effort must identify specific tasks

Targets will clarify the challenges. For example:

How much public & private investment needed What deployment incentives?

What R&D investment?

OECD/IEA 2009


What supply chain investment? Policy framework

lifting import restrictions on foreign turbines

Permitting requirements

How much transmission where, and who pays?

Evolution ofwider power system


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OECD/IEA 2009



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IEA roadmap can be used as a checklist

IEA Wind Energy Roadmap Action Egypt Wind CIP

Assess wind resource 4 regions set as priority; based on

modern wind atlas & >30 met masts

Develop human capacity NREA established 1986 gives wind

training to MENA region, runs 450 MW

Set firm targets Government 20% long-term RE target;

2500 MW IPP prog, 1000 MW NREA

Accelerate local supply chain & Includes a goal; local content bonus

OECD/IEA 2009

Technology RoadmapWind energy7/6/2010

manu ac ur ng po n s n en ers

Continuous feedback between R&D to

improve technology

IEC certification + hot climate + dust &

sand + winds>11m/s; first 450 MW

Ensure integration of wind resource

into local electricity grid

Priority CTF investment in 280 km 500

kV transmission line to high-wind area

Centralise government authority toplan infrastructure and wind devpt NREA authority to lease public land>7000 km2. Utility& NREA task force

Ensure level playing field for electricity

access to grid at a fair price

New Electricity Law offers incentive

and guaranteed access

Engage communities on infrastructure

needs

Not included in CIP; all wind farms

located in remote desert areas


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For more information

OECD/IEA 2009


www.iea.org/roadmaps

[email protected]

4. wind energy leading the clean technology revolution by t. kerr

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