40 year cycle stocks 1974 2014

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© ITTC - Oct. 2014 40-Year Cycle: Stock-flation 1974-2014 INSIIDE Track Report

by Eric S. Hadik

Late-2014 Cycle Peak... October Blues

Oct. 2014 - The month of October has been a pivotal

month in Stock Indices for many decades. That includes Black

Friday in October 1929, Black Monday in October 1987, the mini-

crash that followed in October 1989, the post-Kuwaiti invasion

low of October 1990 (that ushered in the 1990’s bull market and

the notorious Tech Bubble), the ensuing low of October 2002 -

that ushered in the next bull market and the real estate/sub-

prime bubble of the 2000’s - and even the peak that ended that

bubble, in October 2007.

The funny thing is that October has represented the month

of extremes. It has timed Major tops & crashes and it has pin-

pointed Major lows and opportune buying opportunities. So,

what about October 2014? What will it hold?

In order to begin to address that question, it actually takes a significant gathering of analysis - much of

it already published - to construct a possible scenario for October 2014… and beyond. From a big picture

perspective, October 2014 marks the first month (out of the 3 months that comprise 4Q 2014) when Stock

Indices have the potential to fulfill expectations for a MAJOR reversal lower.

Since 2Q 2013, the focus has been increasingly targeted on 4Q 2014 for Stock Indices to reach a cul-

mination of their 40-Year Cycle of „Stock-flation‟, stemming from their late-1974 bottom (see diagram on

page 2). However, there have been many other cycles forecasting the same thing. Among those are:

-- 12-Year low (late-1990)--low (late-2002)--high (late-2014) Cycle Progression.

-- 7-Year high (Jan./Mar. 2000)--high (July/Oct. 2007)--high (late-2014) Cycle Progression.

“...Let us run with patience the race that is set before us.” Hebrews 12:1

40-Year Cycle: Stock-flation 1974--2014 Inflationary Stock Index Cycle Peak

An INSIIDE Track Special Report on 40-Year Cycle Analysis

40-Year Cycle: Stocks 1974-2014 Inflationary Stock Index Cycle Peak

CONTENTS

Late-2014 Cycle Peak……….......1

Stock-flation 2014………............2

32--33 Week Cycle……............3-5

War/Stock Cycles…….................6

April 2015 Cycle……...................7



And, specific to the NQ-100 (since it set its Ma-

jor low in Nov. 2008 as opposed to March 2009):

-- 6-Year low (4Q 2002)--low (4Q 2008)--high

(4Q 2014) Cycle Progression

-- 3-Year low (Nov. 2008)--low (Aug. 2011)--

high (Aug. - Nov. 2014) Cycle Progression.

As this latest bull market has unfolded - from

2008/2009 and more so from Aug./Oct. 2011 - there

have been corroborating cycles that helped hone this

analysis. One of those has been the 15--16 month

cycle that has governed the Indices since the March

2009 low. It has been discussed for several years

and subsequently timed lows in June/July 2010 &

Oct. 2011. After that, it arrived early - in Nov. 2012.

In retrospect (20/20 hindsight), that Nov. 2012

low was linked to the Aug. 2011 low in the Nasdaq

100 - which had arrived earlier than the Oct. 2011

lows in the DJIA & S+P 500 - creating two competing

cycle lows. That 15-month low-low cycle (Aug. 2011

--Nov. 2012) projected a subsequent low in Feb.

2014 - that arrived on schedule. But, there was

more...

(Continued on page 5)

Hadik‟s Cycle Progression & Stock-flation: 1974--2014

www.insiidetrack.com

2014

1854

1894 1934

1974

40-Year Cycle Progression of Stock-flation

1854 - Silver Debacle (1853--); led to Panic of 1857.

1894 - Silver Bubble & Crash (1893--); led to worst depression in first 120+ years of America.

1934 - Gold/Silver Confiscation (1933 & 1934); midst of Great Depression.

[Disconnect of Gold/Silver to Dollar plants seeds for future „Stock-flation‟.]

1974 - End of Stock Crash (50% drop in ~2 years); Beginning of Stock-flation.

[Gold/Silver begin bull market in 1971 - when Nixon slammed shut the Gold Window (to protect Dollar from speculators). Stocks begin „Stock-flation‟ bull market in 1974. Gold/Silver peak in 2011 - a 40-Year Cycle from Nixon Shock. Could Stock Indices peak in 2014 - a 40-Year Cycle from onset of „Stock-flation‟??? MANY corroborating cycles say „Yes!‟.

2014 - Culmination of 40-Year inflationary advance in Stock Indices (Stock-flation).



32--33 Week Cycle (2012 Analysis)

04/30/12 - 3-6 Month+ Outlook:

Stock Indices remain positive and on track for an overall advance into 3Q 2012. They completed their projected

advance - from cycle lows in early-October into cycle highs in March - and have consolidated for the past 4-6 weeks.

As described last month, the NQ had multiple cycles peaking on March 26--30th - including a 22-week high-high

cycle (following an 11-week rally) and an overall 33-week advance from Aug. 2011, 1/2 of the 66-week cycle that

has spanned major lows in the DJIA & SP.

It rallied into March 27th, fulfilled upside price targets and has not closed above that high since then...If a peak

is seen in early-May - without turning the intra-month trend up - it would set the stage for a second, 2-3 week decline

into May 21--25th.

That is the time frame when an intermediate low (either higher or lower than the April lows) is likely… 180

degrees from the November 25th low. It is also 33 weeks - the midpoint of the 66-Week Cycle - from the October

3rd/4th, 2011 bottom. The daily & weekly trends and price action should help clarify this.

05/31/12 - 3-6 Month+ Outlook: Stock Indices have turned neutral with the S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 futures reversing their weekly trends to

down. While this did/does show that a 2-3 month peak is intact (since late-March), it does not show much more.

Instead, it would take the intra-year trends turning down - with weekly closes below 12,221/DJIA, 1256.6/SPM

& 2312/NQM - to escalate this to a 3-6 month, and possibly 6-12 month, peak. Until/unless that occurs, the intra-

year trends should provide a floor underneath intermediate corrections. There is also a cycle argument for some near-

term support...these larger-degree cycles focused on May 21--25th. This led to the following conclusion, detailed in

the May 16, 2012 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:

“Stock Indices remain in the „c‟ wave of an intermediate correction that began in late-March… and that has been projected to extend into May 21--25th - when a multi-month bottom is likely. If so, it would come 180 degrees from the November 25, 2011 bottom… and at the next phase of a 32-33 week cycle (3xs the prevailing 11-Week Cycle & ½ of the 66-week cycle that has pinpointed 3 consecutive major lows).

In the case of the S+P, this 32--33 week cycle has created a 32--33 week rally from the June/July 2010 low, followed by a 32--33 week decline… into the October 2011 bottom. That October low projects an ensuing low, 32--

33 weeks later - on May 21--25th (potentially on May 14--18th).”

...It is always important to keep the bigger picture in perspective, so as not to lose sight of what is most impor-

tant. For starters, 2012 is the culmination of multiple cycles...when an important top is expected. That could come at

any time, but the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is the ideal time. The recent lows should now be viewed as a critical filter for

this analysis. As long as they hold, the Indices should rally back to their March highs.”

Oct. 2014 - The 32--33 Week Cycle is a multiple of the 11-Week Cycle (discussed throughout 2011, help-ing to pinpoint the July 2011 peak and Oct. 3--7, 2011 bottom) - a cycle that is also at the root of a 22--23 Week Cycle & 44--45 Week Cycle, discussed since 1999--2000. In 2012, it was forecast to pinpoint a low in late-May, which arrived right on schedule (see 11-Week Cycle series at www.insiidetrack.com for preceding articles).

At the same time, an overlapping 32--33 week (~7.5 month) Cycle Progression formed - connecting the late-March/early-April 2012 high with the Nov. 2012 low… and then the late-June/early-July 2013 low. That was forecast to lead to a February 2014 low - which took hold as anticipated. The ensuing phase of both the 32--33 Week AND 66-Week (7.5 & 15-month) Cycles came into play in Sept. 2014 - on Sept. 15--26, 2014… the exact

time the Nasdaq 100 just set a spike high. Could that be a Major top? April 2015 is the next phase! IT



S+P Weekly Chart: 32--33 Week Swings


33 Weeks Lo-Hi

33 Weeks Hi-Lo 33 Weeks Lo-Lo

32--33 Week Cycle Chart from 2012

DJIA Weekly Chart: 22, 33, 44 & 66 Week Cycle Progressions

44 wks. L-H

22 wks. H-L

44 Wks. L-H

Aug. 6-10, 2012


66 wks. H-H

66 Weeks 66 Weeks

33 Weeks

32--33 Week Cycle Chart from 2012



That Feb. 2014 cycle low had been corrobo-

rated by its half-cycle - an approximate 7.5 month

cycle that helped pinpoint the late-June 2013 bottom

(that was also discussed previously). And, a 7.5

Month Cycle from the early-Feb. 2014 low - and a 15

-Month Cycle from the late-June 2013 low - reached

fruition in late-September 2014… 1--2 weeks before

long-term, 4Q 2014 cycles converged.

32--33 Week Cycle

The charts on page 4 are reprints of charts that

were published in the June 2012 INSIIDE Track

(along with corresponding analysis included on page

3) that reiterated this cycle - a cycle closely linked to

the 11-Week Cycle that had been a frequent topic of

discussion in 2011.

The chart above (page 5) is the current action

of the Nasdaq 100 and the 32--33 Week Cycle that

culminated on Sept. 15--26, 2014. Actually, it has

been a very precise, 32-Week Cycle since Nov.

2012. The current NQ-100 peak of Sept. 19, 2014

completed a precise, 32-week low-low-low-(high)

Cycle Progression and closely followed the NYSE

peak of early-Sept.

At the time, the NYSE & NQ-100 triggered daily

trend pattern sell signals (on Sept. 19th/22nd - see

corresponding Weekly Re-Lays) and projected a

sharp drop into Oct. 6--10, 2014.

Other indicators leave open the potential for

that decline to stretch into Oct. 13--17, 2014 (see

Sept. 25, 2014 Weekly Re-Lay for a breakdown of

multiple signals and objectives corroborating this

analysis). So, what does that mean for October?

October Blues

For starters, the action of Sept. 3rd/4th--Sept.

19th/22nd built expectations for a sharp drop in the

first part of October. Depending on the action of

revealing indicators like the weekly trend pattern,

that drop should bring more clarity to expectations

for the remainder of 2014. But, there is a more in-

triguing set of cycles that should be re-examined.

Once these Indices - and the DJIA & S+P 500 -

confirmed that (at least) an intermediate peak had

(Continued from page 2)

Nasdaq 100 - Weekly Chart 32--33 Week Cycle

32-Week Low-Low-Low-(High) Cycle Progression -

Sept. 15--19, 2014 Peak? Nov. 2012

Feb. 2014

June 2013

Sept. 2014


April 2015 = Next Phase



taken hold in September, it clarified expectations

for cycles in the first half of October (see reprint of

Sept. 2014 INSIIDE Track analysis on page 7),

which could only be a low. That would actually be a

better affirmation of future cycles in April 2015.

As recounted on page 7, geometric cycles (90,

180, 360 degrees or days) converge on Oct. 13--

17th and provide the perfect opportunity for a

„precursor cycle low‟.

In other words, by fulfilling the potential for an

intermediate low - and the culmination of a multi-

week period of selling - Oct. 13--17th could provide

an archetype of what to expect in mid-April 2015,

180 degrees in the future. So, an intermediate bot-

tom around mid-October could have very revealing

current AND future ramifications.

One possibility (that would HAVE to be cor-

roborated by intervening action) is that mid-April

2015 could culminate a larger-degree, multi-month

period of selling… potentially brought on by some

extra-market, geopolitical event.

Though I am not projecting the same thing,

that would be cyclically similar to what took place in

Sept. 2001. For two years (from mid-1999--mid-

2001), INSIIDE Track had been detailing and focus-

ing on War Cycles projected for August--October

2001. [See excerpts included in accompanying text

box.] Stock Indices - and other cycles - helped pin-

point that focus to September 2001.

From April 2000 until Sept. 8, 2001, analysis

continued to explain why a Major bear market in

stocks was foreboding a Major war event in late-

2001. Among the speculation (first published in

April 2000) was that „America‟s shores‟ could get hit

by another „giant surprise‟ - cyclically-linked to the

attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.

In late-2000, after the Indices had fulfilled the

potential for a Major peak in early-2000, the charts

showed that a break below the Oct. 18, 2000 lows

(isn’t it intriguing how an October 18th low became

the final confirming factor for a Major bear market)

(Continued on page 8)

When War & Stock Market Cycles Align

“…a Middle East war seems likely in 2001.”

[Aug. 1999 INSIIDE Track]

“The ensuing year of 5761 begins a new chapter in Middle East history…2001 also completes the 28- and 84-year cycles…an intriguing religious (Christian & Jewish) cycle reaching fruition in September 2001…

2001 is 60 years from the last giant surprise to hit America‟s shores…Could another surprise occur in 2001? [Emphasis added]

…As for the stock market, there is a sequence of 19‟s that is a harbinger of transition...will it peak in mid-2000 and then correct (for 19 months??) into 2001.”

[April 2000 INSIIDE Track]

“…2001 is the latest occurrence of an ongoing Cycle of Time 19-year cycle (from the 1982 low) in the stock market. Normal cycle theory would tell you it will be a low and we should see a sharp correction between now and sometime next year…”

[Oct. 2000 INSIIDE Track]

“…11-year sunspot cycle….fits with a key longer-term Cycle of Time cycle of 133 months (which equals 11 years and 1 month and also equals 7 x 19 months). It has pin-pointed many critical wars in the recent history of the Mid-dle East and their impact on America…and is back to haunt us from now until late-2001.

[Nov. 2000 INSIIDE Track]

133 months (7 x 19) from Iraq‟s Aug. 1990 invasion of Kuwait is Sept. 2001!

“Weekly trends remain down confirming that cycles point lower into January and potentially into September 2001…Stock Indices could decline into September 2001 if the October 18th lows are taken out in the coming months…parallel to the 1973-‟74 period is the Middle East.

In 1973, Israel was attacked on Yom Kippur…there are some eerie parallels to 1973 - „74... and the stock mar-ket is reflecting this anxiety while also discounting more trouble on the horizon.”

[Dec. 2000 INSIIDE Track]

Oct. 2014 - For 2+ years, the cyclic focus remained on Sept. 2001 for the culmination of a sharp drop in Stock Indices and the onset of War Cycles. Were those cycles validated? You be the judge.



STOCK INDICES 08/29/14 - 2014 - most synergistic in 4Q 2014 - is not only when so many Stock Index cycles and timing indi-

cators converge, it is also the completion/transition of multiple social/economic/financial cycles. A stock market

peak in 4Q 2014 would complete a 40-year inflationary advance in Stock Indices (and many other markets) - origi-

nating from the 4Q 1974 bottom.

On a near-term basis, the Indices were expected to see a ~5% correction from intermediate cycle highs in July

into cycle lows on August 5--14th (most synergistic on August 8th/11th) - at which point a new advance was pro-

jected to take hold. They did sell off; they did drop about 5%; and the Indices did bottom on August 7th & 8th…

and a new advance has taken hold.

And that has reinforced at least one cycle in 4Q 2014... the same time of year when the 2007 peak was set

(Oct. 11th) and the 1990 low was set (Oct. 11th) - the bookends around a perfect, 17-Year Cycle advance. It is

also when a low was set in 2013 (Oct. 9th) and would be 180 degrees from the recent April 11th low...

As with every turning point, there is current significance and future significance...That would be another

phase of a cyclic sequence that has been unfolding… and that could have a profound impact on a momentous cycle

date in 2015. Although that date is not a ‘market cycle’ date, it has the potential to have a symbiotic impact on the

markets (and vice-versa). So, please bear with me as I go on a bit of a tangent...

The sequence involves the 90-degree cycle - but a different application of it. The DJIA set a pivotal low on

Oct. 9--13, 2013, which was followed by an equally important S+P high in mid-Jan. - 90 degrees later (the DJIA

set a high earlier and could not retest that high in mid-Jan.). On April 11th/14th, the DJIA & S+P set another deci-

sive low and entered a 3-month advance. That culminated on July 16th/17th…[October 10--17th is next].

However, it is 180 degrees later that really intrigues me...Mid-April 2015... overlaps a 40-Year & 240-Year

Cycle I have discussed previously. They stem from the original/initial American war (first shot of Revolutionary

War fired on April 19, 1775) and the end of the last Major war - Vietnam - in April 1975...

I have maintained heightened focus on April 19, 2015 - the next Date of Infamy and the convergence of these

cycles - and the markets could produce some early-warning signs & cycles… as they so often do!

As explained previously, April 2015 will mark the completion of a 40-Year Cycle of ‘peace’ - and by that, I

simply mean the lack of any American wars on the scale of the Revolutionary, Civil, WWI, WWII & Vietnam

Wars. April 2015 will complete that cycle and usher in a new one… when things could change dramatically, from

that point forward.

April 2015 is also EXACTLY 70 years from the defeat and death of Mussolini & Hitler in April 1945 (as well

as Roosevelt, which led to the ascension of Harry Truman and the decision/events of early-August 1945). So, here

again, it is the completion of a MAJOR cycle from the end of a momentous war...

The point of all this is simple. Of all the primary, major, multi-year cycles I follow (11-Year, 17-Year, 40-

Year, 70-Year and even a 200- & 240-Year Cycle) - and which have proven themselves accurate and consistent for

centuries - ALL of them converge in April 2015, with respect to war and peace.

October 2014 - The lows of mid-Oct. 2013 & mid-April 2014 create a ~180-degree cycle that would be perpetuated with a low in mid-Oct. 2014… and project focus to the next phase in mid-April 2015. The impli-cations and ramifications of that will be discussed in follow-up Reports and publications. IT



would project a sharp, extended decline into Sep-

tember 2001 (see Dec. 2000 IT analysis).

That is another example of how cycles and

technical analysis in the markets closely fore-

shadow events outside of the markets.

When the dust eventually settled - after the

events of 9/11/01 - it became apparent that there

had been multiple signs and ‘tests’ missed - or ig-

nored - since the original WTC bombing in 1993.

Years of ignoring warning signs had preceded that

ignominious event.

So, is it worth noting - or repeating - the events

of April 2013 that included the Boston Bombing

AND the concerted & well-orchestrated sniper at-

tack on the power plant in N. California? And

should the latter of those two be treated as a pre-

cursor event… or just some random, never-to-be-

repeated attack?

As a nation, do we go back to ignoring these

glaring ‘yellow flags’ & sweeping them under the

carpet since it might otherwise look like something

bad „happened on our watch‟ (a political hot po-

tato)? In almost every case, the markets presage

events like this!

So, could the market events of October 2014 -

and the ensuing months - shed some light on what

to expect in April 2015? Absolutely. And that will

be the topic of an ongoing discussion.

In order to validate the potential for future

(larger) declines, the Indices need to break key sup-

port levels - like the August lows and the intra-year

lows. The Weekly Re-Lay has already detailed key

levels to watch on a short-term basis - leading into

mid-October - and INSIIDE Track publications will

continue to address the bigger-picture analysis.

Follow-up publications will provide more spe-

cific downside targets and corroborating signals -

which should help identify if the long-awaited, late-

2014 Stock Index peak is already intact. This Re-

port is simply intended to ’set the stage’ and pro-

vide critical context for impending analysis. IT

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Copyright 2014 INSIIDE Track Trading Corporation

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40 year cycle stocks 1974 2014

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