4/26/20 · 2020-05-07 · the wider view source: iri, total us, mulo, 1 week % growth versus year...
TRANSCRIPT
Performance review4/26/20On behalf of IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
Anne-Marie Roerink
President
210 Analytics
The wider view
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20
Total store with fresh 1.9% 10.6% 62.5% 58.2% 14.3% 16.9% 16.4% 5.1% 22.0%
Total edibles excl. fresh 2.9% 8.9% 78.2% 80.2% 24.7% 29.4% 29.5% 10.5% 31.4%
Fresh perimeter -0.7% 3.4% 44.9% 45.1% 11.8% 15.8% 17.6% 1.0% 23.1%
Produce department 0.4% 3.8% 34.5% 29.7% 8.1% 14.2% 16.3% 3.3% 22.9%
Meat department -1.4% 7.3% 76.7% 91.3% 37.2% 41.2% 42.9% 17.8% 49.7%
Total bakery -4.2% 2.4% 78.8% 49.2% 6.9% 9.3% 9.7% -3.9% 11.8%
Dairy department 1.5% 5.6% 60.0% 60.0% 22.2% 30.6% 31.3% 16.4% 37.9%
Deli department -1.1% 1.0% 15.9% 1.3% -20.1% -22.5% -27.0% -25.5% -14.8%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
$ sales growth versus comparable week in 2019
Dairy
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Sales week
ending
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/20/26 4/26/20
Dairy +1.5% +5.6% +60.0% +60.0% +22.2% +30.6% +31.3% +16.4% +38.6% $1.7B
Natural cheese +3.7% +8.7% +70.6% +73.8% +30.5% +39.8% +41.7% +22.1% +49.0% $327M
Milk +3.1% +6.7% +52.2% +47.5% +12.2% +22.5% +22.6% +16.0% +25.4% $307M
Eggs -6.1% -1.0% +71.2% +71.5% +36.8% +51.8% +67.5% +24.6% +53.0% $155M
Yogurt -0.4% +3.7% +41.7% +21.5% -7.0% -2.2% -3.9% -0.6% +11.0% $146M
Cream/creamers +3.0% +6.5% +47.6% +43.0% +15.9% +25.4% +25.3% +18.1% +36.1% $93M
Butter +5.9% +8.5% +90.2% +111.8% +61.8% +71.0% +62.4% +15.3% +77.4% $83M
Processed cheese +2.9% +7.0% +80.5% +111.2% +43.4% +46.2% +43.8% +22.0% +42.7% $65M
Cream cheese +3.5% +7.9% +60.0% +69.0% +31.3% +42.4% +51.9% +3.6% +48.5% $41M
Sour cream -1.5% +1.8% +49.6% +60.2% +35.0% +47.6% +53.4% +9.7% +49.1% $30M
Margarine/spreads -2.7% +2.5% +79.9% +104.8% +39.6% +31.4% +11.9% +6.4% +44.6% $30M
Whipped toppings +2.5% +3.6% +32.5% +41.2% +26.7% +41.6% +56.1% +4.5% +52.1% $29M
Cottage cheese -4.5% -1.4% +35.6% +33.8% +3.9% +9.0% +7.3% +4.8% +23.1% $23M
Retail Feedback Group’s Constant Customer Feedback (CCF) program
• “The butter was way overpriced, especially when the farmers are having a
tough time.”
• “Eggs continue to be hard to find. I went to the store with the specific
purpose of buying everything I needed for the week but there were no
regular eggs and specialty eggs are even more expensive than they already
were pre-virus. Seems like the price for European butter and cheese have
come up a lot too.”
• “Still no eggs, yeast or many baking supplies. I talked to the bakery and
they gave me a bake-off bread with great instructions on how to do it at
home. It made wonderful bread and it was greatly appreciated.”
• “With meat and eggs in short supply, are you going to ration items again?”
Communicate about shortages, if possible
210 Analytics
Big volume/dollar gaps
$ gains w/e
4/26/20
Volume gains
w/e 4/26/20
$ gains latest 4
weeks ending
4/26/20
Volume gains
latest 4 weeks
ending 4/26/20
Butter/butter blends 77.4% 68.7% 53.2% 44.9%
Cottage cheese 23.1% 20.8% 10.7% 7.6%
Cream cheese 48.5% 45.3% 33.9% 27.8%
Creams/creamers 36.1% 31.6% 26.0% 21.3%
Fresh eggs 53.0% 22.3% 48.7% 14.1%
Margarine/spreads 44.6% 36.3% 22.6% 15.1%
Milk 25.4% 17.4% 21.6% 14.5%
Natural cheese 49.0% 38.2% 37.6% 28.4%
Processed cheese 42.7% 34.1% 38.3% 30.4%
Sour cream 49.1% 46.9% 38.0% 33.0%
Whipped toppings 52.1% 52.6% 35.7% 35.8%
Yogurt 11.0% 11.3% 0.8% 0.5%
IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
America is baking
210 Analytics
Online cross-merchandising
IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
Deli
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20
Deli department -1.1% 1.0% 15.9% -2.8% -20.1% -22.5% -27.0% -25.5% -14.8%
Deli meat -1.2% 5.0% 40.5% 37.5% 6.6% 6.2% -0.5% 0.8% 16.9%
Deli cheese 3.2% 5.4% 44.2% 47.5% 16.0% 16.6% 14.5% 5.2% 30.5%
Deli prepared -1.8% -1.7% -1.1% -24.1% -38.9% -43.1% -47.1% -43.2% -36.3%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
$ sales growth vs. year ago deli department
Deli meat
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
Random weight deli meat
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Sales w/e
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/ 4/26/20
Dollar sales -1.2 +5.0% +40.5% +37.5% +6.6% +6.2% -0.5% +0.8% +16.9% $115M
Volume sales -4.2 +1.1% +35.2% +33.9% +2.3% +1.5% -5.8% -6.0% +11.6% 13M
UPC/Pre-packaged lunchmeat
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Sales w/e
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26 4/26/20
Dollar sales -4.1% +2.5% +78.9% +88.7% +22.3% +26.3% +17.1% +14.2% +24.6% $115M
Volume sales -6.9% +1.1% +73.7% +88.6% +17.1% +18.0% +10.6% +9.0% +18.3% 23M
c
Non-UPC deli meat that was pre-sliced in
grab-and-go make up 32% of total deli meat sales
Sales +80.0%
Non-UPC deli meat sales sliced-to-order
make up 68% of total deli meat sales
Sales -4.7%
Plastic packaging is no longer the enemy;
grab-and-go can be a solution to drive sales
IRI, MULO, w/e 4/19/20, % change versus YAGO
Random weight deli cheese
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Sales w/e
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20
Dollar sales -1.2% +5.0% +40.5% +37.5% +16.0% +6.2% +14.5% +5.2% +30.5% $54M
Volume sales
-4.2% +1.1% +35.2% +33.9% +11.8% +9.7% +8.2% +0.6% +26.4% 7M
Fixed weight cheese
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Sales week
ending
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20
Dollar sales +3.6% +8.4% +72.2% +80.0% +32.7% +40.9% +42.1% +22.1% +47.9% $392M
Volume sales -2.0% 4.0% 64.2% 74.3% +25.7% +29.4% +35.1% 11.4% +37.4% 78M
IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
Deli cheese
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
Deli prepared
Source: Source: IRI, Total US, multi-outlet, week ending April 19, 2020. *NOTE: Items that indicated Random-Weight do
not have UPC, fixed-weight items included pre-packaged meals and categories are UPC, fixed-weight only and include
third-party brands. Deli-prepared foods are random weight as well as simple UPC, fixed-weight private label in prepared
meats.
Sales week of April
12, 2020
Sales week of
April 19, 2020
Sales week of
April 26, 2020
Total convenient meals (random and fixed weight) -32.9% -29.6% -20.0%
Pre-packaged meals (fixed weight) -11.6% -9.1% +2.2%
Deli prepared department -47.1% -43.2% -34.8%
Prepared/cooked meat -27.3% -21.2% -13.4%
Entrees -46.7% -42.4% -31.1%
Appetizers -45.3% -40.5% -33.1%
Sandwiches -49.1% -38.1% -41.7%
Salads -55.3% -54.7% -46.2%
Sides -31.8% -34.0% -27.5%
Dips/sauces -17.5% -26.7% -11.5%
Pizza -39.7% -39.6% -41.9%
Trays -79.0% -83.2% -73.3%
Combo meals -83.8% -82.3% -86.0%
Desserts -59.6% -58.9% -65.7%
Soups -95.5% -85.1% -89.7%
210 Analytics
A bright spot: holiday meals
Outdoor quick service stations
Celebrate seasons,
secondary holidays and
“national days”
▪ There are >1500
national days and
months
▪ Krispy Kreme
“Talk like a pirate day”
▪ www.nationaldaycalend
er.com
Actively remind shoppers about deli prepared
Great example: Hy-Vee
. . .
210 Analytics
Address new wants: no contact pickup
. . .
210 Analytics
Repurposing of salad/hot bars
210 Analytics
If all else feels, there’s always alcohol
210 Analytics
Restaurant creativity
Doughnut Time developed a DIY delivery box
Vegan “David Hassel-Biscoff Doughnuts”
IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
Bakery
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
-1.3%
3.0%
44.3%
49.2%
15.3% 18.9%18.3%
5.2%
20.8%
0.1%6.3%
62.3%60.8%
12.7% 14.0%
10.0%
4.7%
24.1%
-2.5% -0.5%
11.1%
-0.4%
-20.5% -22.9%-18.8%
-32.1%
-17.3%
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20
$ sales growth deli department versus comparable week in 2019
Packaged baked goods aisle Packaged cookies and crackers Fresh bakery (non-UPC)
Packaged baked goods aisle
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Weekly sales w/e
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20
Packaged baked goods
-1.3% +3.0% +44.3% +49.2% +15.3% +18.9% +18.3% +5.2% +20.8% $492M
Fresh bread and rolls
-0.4% +4.9% +58.6% +64.5% +25.4% +29.3% +28.1% +11.4% +24.8% $297M
Bakery snacks
-2.8% +2.2% +23.1% +29.2% -2.8% -0.1% -2.7% -8.8% +9.4% $50M
Doughnuts -0.7% +23.5% +36.2% +13.0% +14.2% +14.2% +9.9% +8.5% +25.3% $28M
Pastries, Danish and
coffee cakes-2.3% +25.0% +26.3% -0.7% +2.4% +2.4% +1.1% -4.7% +15.9% $26M
Bagels +1.7% +4.7% +49.7% +17.6% +25.9% +28.9% +35.7% +33.9% +50.2% $24M
English Muffins
-5.0% +0.9% +52.3% +52.1% +23.4% +35.8% +33.9% +24.9% +52.8% $17M
IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
Cookies and crackers
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…
Weekly sales w/e
3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26 4/26/20
Cookies & crackers
+0.1% +6.3% +62.3% +60.8% +12.7% +14.0% +10.0% +4.7% +24.1% $315M
Cookies -1.7% +3.9% +50.5% +53.5% +13.5% +15.1% +10.5% +5.6% +24.6% $170M
Crackers +2.1% +9.1% +75.6% +69.0% +11.7% +12.8% +9.6% +3.5% +23.6% $145M
IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics
In-store bakery
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
Top six items in sales
Sales increase for the week ending
4/12/2020
Sales increase for the week ending
4/19/2020
Sales increase for the week ending
4/26/2020
In-store/fresh bakery total -18.8% -32.1% -17.3%
Cakes -23.3% -42.6% -26.8%
Rolls -9.8% -25.8% -8.6%
Bread +9.0% +1.3% +12.9%
Breakfast items -15.5% -15.6% -5.3%
Cookies -15.8% -18.6% -6.1%
Donuts -54.7% -52.9% -49.6%
Croissants +3.4% -10.8% +17.0%
210 Analytics
Adapt sizes and offerings to new realities
Inputs into the crystal ball
The virus is in control Continuation or loosening of social distance
mandates
Newly-formed habits that may be here to stay
Emerging amid a new economic reality
New competitive and departmental realities
Pandemic “battlefield ” decisions with longer-term implications
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
A patchwork of state-level mandates and expirations
makes each set of circumstances unique
1. ▪ The virus controls the timeline: duration/reemergence
▪ Timeline of easing social distancing measures
▪ Timeline of reopening of non-essential businesses
▪ Resuming of travel, school, evening activities, etc.
▪ Need to reach people at home and align with new
rituals
▪ How long will the quarantine mindset be in people’s
psyches?
▪ Germaphobia
▪ Latent social anxiety and fear of in-store trips
▪ Generational imprint
– Appreciation for in-home activities
– Baking, cooking, coffee breaks, exercising
– Celebrations/holidays
» Educate to activate
– Permanent shifts to work from home
» Shifting demand for goods and services with it
– Brand loyalties and trial
• Changes in trip behavior, day of the week, day part and
online grocery shopping
– Online engagement is unlikely to reverse drastically
New habits are easily formed and coronavirus is driving many
Consumers will emerge from the pandemic in a new economic
reality, changing food retailing in profound ways
2
8
▪ Temporary increase in SNAP benefits
▪ SNAP Online for growing number of states
▪ Recession
▪ Double-digit unemployment
▪ Curtailed consumer spending
▪ Prolonged economic “scarring”
▪ Trend toward value-oriented items, brands and
retailers
▪ Spending focus on need-based categories, with
pressure on discretionary categories
A vastly different competitive set: retail, food retail
and departmental landscape
▪ A great retail bifurcation
▪ Employee first
▪ Brand image reset: deepen connections
▪ Right-sizing of items that were left on the shelf
▪ Grocery formats thrived, others will take years to
recover, if ever
▪ Less retail space, a trend that was well underway pre-
pandemic
▪ Vast changes to bulk items, kiosks and self-service
▪ A new view on packaging/wrapped items: protect
▪ Value becomes more important (large pack size)
4.
Operational efficiencies applied throughout the supply chain;
Which warrant a longer-term look?
▪ SKU rationalization
▪ Packaging size choices
▪ Grab-and-go choices
▪ Line extensions
▪ Brand choices
▪ Service case decisions
▪ Merchandising creativity
▪ Etc
• Download the report each week from the IDDBA website:
– https://www.iddba.org/research/industry-research/covid-19-impact
• Please share ideas, pictures and stories with us!
– Eric: [email protected]
– Jonna: [email protected]
– Brian: [email protected]
– Anne-Marie: [email protected]
Download report