44 th annual mid-pacific region 2011 water users conference water supply outlook
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44 th Annual Mid-Pacific Region 2011 Water Users Conference Water Supply Outlook Reno, Nevada January 26-28, 2011. Central Valley Project Operations Sacramento, CA Water Supply Outlook January 2011. Folsom Dam Flood Releases December 2010. 8-Station Index Precipitation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
44th AnnualMid-Pacific Region
2011 Water Users ConferenceWater Supply Outlook
Reno, NevadaJanuary 26-28, 2011
Central Valley Project OperationsSacramento, CA
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011
Folsom Dam Flood Releases December 2010
Chart from California Data Exchange Center
8-Station Index Precipitation
Chart from California Data Exchange Center
5-Station Index Precipitation
Sierra Snow Pack
Chart from California Data Exchange Center
Chart from California Data Exchange Center
Three-Month Precipitation OutlookFeb – Apr 2010
Chart from NOAA - CNRFC
Current Reservoir Storages
Chart provided by California Data Exchange Center
CVP ReservoirStorage (TAF)
Reservoir Capacity 15-yr Avg WY2010 WY 2011
Trinity 2,448 1,688 1,018 1,796
Shasta 4,552 3,097 2,413 3,457
Folsom 977 454 295 458
New Melones 2,420 1,661 1,208 1,579
Fed San Luis 966 762 558 888
Total 11,363 7,662 5,492 8,178
January 24, 2011
Key Water Supply Assumptions
• Hydrology based on January 1 conditions• Operations to meet SWRCB WRD-1641• Use of current Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives of NMFS BiOp and FWS BiOp• Use of approximately 270 TAF of Rescheduled Project water in San Luis Reservoir• San Joaquin River flows/Mendota Pool operations not included in supply• Capacity for Joint Point of Diversion operations at Banks Pumping Plant is not available• Water supply augmentation actions are available
Key CVP Operations Points
• San Luis Reservoir fills in early February
• Jones Pumping Plant is at maximum capacity in July, August, and September
• Roe Island water quality is not triggered for February (x2)
Water Supply OutlookStanislaus River
90% and 50% Exceedence100% Project Water (155,000 acre-feet)
Mid-Pacific RegionInitial Water Year 2011 Supply Forecast
January 18, 2011
Probability ofExceedenceForecasts
Percent ofHistorical AverageSacramento ValleyIndex & Year Type
North of Delta South of Delta
Ag M&I R WR Ag M&I R WR
50% 111%Wet 100 100 100 100 50 75* 100 100
90% 88%Below Normal 100 100 100 100 45 75* 100 100
Recent Historic Average(5-Year Average Allocation) 76 90 100 100 49 77 100 100
WY 2011Water Supply Outlook
*Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries
Shasta ReservoirAnnual Inflow Projections
• Inflow to date: 1,696 TAF• Average Inflow to date: 1,883 TAF
• 90% Exceedence Projection: 4,960 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 6,380 TAF
• Historical WY Average: 6,107 TAF
New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections
• Inflow to date: 385 TAF• Average Inflow to date: 256 TAF
• 90% Exceedence Projection: 1,126 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 1,504 TAF
Thank You
South Central California Area OfficeFresno, CA
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011
2011 Friant Division Outlook
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct – Jan
2011-To-Date 11.65 5.53 17.57 3.48 38.23
2010 6.12 0.56 6.19 7.70 8.08 4.87 7.22 2.07 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 20.57
Average77-07
2.15 4.62 6.61 8.40 8.48 7.19 3.82 2.09 0.66 0.45 0.20 0.97 21.78
Crane Valley 22,895 AF45,500 AF
Mammoth Pool 85,836 AF122,000 AF
Edison Lake 75,728 AF125,000 AF
Huntington Lake62,555 AF89,000 AF
Florence Lake38,067 AF64,000 AF
Shaver Lake 28,553 AF136,000 AF
Kerckhoff Reservoir3,584 AF4,188 AF
Redinger Lake20,261 AF26,000 AF
Millerton Lake396,666 AF520,500 AF
San Joaquin Basin Upstream Storages
January 25,
2011Total
Capacity2011 % Capacity
2010 % Capacity
Total Upstream Storage 337,479 611,688 55% 53%
Millerton Lake Storage 396,666 520,500 76% 45%
Total Storage 734,145 1,132,188 65% 49%
Maximum Upstream StorageJuly 21, 2010: 576,964 AF50%: 554,300 AF (July)90%: 554,300 AF (July)
Note:January 25, 2011: 337,479 AFJanuary 25, 2010: 323,839 AF
Note:January 25, 2011: 396,666 AFJanuary 25, 2010: 234,436 AF
Maximum Lake StorageJuly 6, 2010: 496,382 AF50%: 520,400 AF (July)90%: 497,450 AF (June)
2011 Cachuma Project Outlook
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-Jan
2011-ToDate
2.24 1.42 9.48 1.5814.72
2010 2.20 0.00 3.00 10.34 4.92 0.26 3.15 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.54
Average 0.68 1.92 3.09 4.38 4.65 3.50 1.57 0.38 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.21 10.07
Maximum Lake StorageApril 28, 2010: 178,075 AF10%: 192,895 AF (April)50%: 181,677 AF (March)90%: 174,108 AF (Jan)
Note:January 26, 2011: 174,959 AFJanuary 26, 2010: 152,005 AF
100% Water Supply – 25,714 acre feet
2011 Cachuma Project Water Supply Outlook
Thank You
Klamath Basin Area OfficeKlamath Falls, OR
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011
Klamath Basin Outlook
Snowpack Average and Peak1/26/2010 1/26/2011
Average Peak
Natural Resources Conservation Service January Klamath Basin Forecast
Average Probability (50% Exceedance) • Upper Klamath Lake Inflow (April – September)
• 585,000 acre-feet• 114% of average
• Clear Lake Inflow (February – July)• 125,000 acre-feet• 119% of average
• Gerber Reservoir Inflow (February – July)• 55,000 acre-feet• 117% of average
Thank You
Lahontan Basin Area OfficeCarson City, NV
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011
Hundreds Attend Global Warming Protest
Current Snowpack Conditions(Snow Water Equivalent)
Total Precipitation To Date
Soil Moisture Content
Previous4-Year Average
Jan. 01, 2011 near60% Saturation
• Soils are very wet due to above avg. precip.
• Will improve runoff potential in the spring/summer
• Similar conditions in Tahoe and Truckee Basins
Range of HistoricalData (shaded)
Modified from NRCS
40%
30%
25%
Reservoir Storage
April-July Runoff Forecasts
Historical Truckee River Runoff April-July
Thank You
Q and A