4th iea-ief-opec symposium on energy outlooks · global road transport sector 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013
4th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks
Riyadh, 22 January 2014
© OECD/IEA 2013
Spare or stranded?*
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance
Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World Supply Capacity Growth
* Note: all medium-term slides in this presentation based on the IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013
released 14 May 2013. Slides 11-14 are based on the IEA Oil Market Report of 21 January 2014.
© OECD/IEA 2013
Supply: US & Iraq in the lead
1.81.0
2.82.3
2.3
0.6
1.4
2.0
0.5
2.4
6.0
8.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
OPEC* Non-OPEC Total
mb/dGlobal Liquids Growth 2012-18
Crude US Light Tight Oil
NGLs Non-Conv
Biofuels Processing Gain
* OPEC crude is capacity additionsGlobal Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2013
Non-OPEC: American decade
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
mb/dNon-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China
Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total
© OECD/IEA 2013
OPEC capacity hurdles Growth forecast cut to 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d
Forecast cut by 750 kb/d vs MTOMR 2012
Security risks, instability in Africa in wake of ‘Arab Spring’
Unattractive investment terms
Project delays (Algeria, Libya and Nigeria)
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mb/d Change in OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity
Iran IraqUAE Saudi ArabiaOther Total OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2013
Demand lags supply Emerging markets lead growth
Demand up 1.1 mb/d (1.2%) per annum 2012-18
Aggregate gain of 6.9 mb/d, to 96.7 mb/d
Non-OECD demand forecast overtake OECD in 2014
Global Oil Demand Growth
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
Transport drives demand growth
Oil remains world’s top transport fuel
Dieselisation marks pause
Transport gas inroads
Gasoline growth slows to 1.2%/year on efficiency gains,
fuel switching
Global Road Transport Sector
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others
Gasoline Demand, kb/d
5 000
10 000
15 000
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
Crude trade: the great migration Long-haul, Atlantic to Pacific trade grows in importance
Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*(million barrels per day)
* Excludes Intra-Regional Trade
3.1
(-0.6) 3.9(-0.9)
0.3(-0.8)
2.9
1.6 (0.3)
1.2 (+0.4)
-0.3
1.5
1.7 (+0.8)
(-1)
0.5(+0.4)
0.5Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-18 (+0)
6.2
(+0.8)
Other Asia
China
OECD Europe
1.3(-0.3)
1.4 (+0.7)
OECD Pacific
0.3 (+0.1)
0.7(+0.3)
2.9 (-1.4)
NorthAmerica
© OECD/IEA 2013
Crude trade declines Down 0.9 mb/d to 32.4 mb/d
North American imports drop as domestic supply grows
Lower refining demand elsewhere in the OECD
Increased imports to China and Other Asia
Increased refining close to the wellhead
Imports to non-OECD will surpass OECD in 2018
-1 500
-1 000
- 500
0
500
1 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
kb/dRegional Crude Exports:
Yearly Change
China Other Asia Africa Latin America
Middle East FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe
-2 000
-1 500
-1 000
- 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
kb/d Regional Crude Imports:Yearly Change
China Other Asia Africa Latin Am
Other Eur OECD Pac OECD N Am OECD Eur
© OECD/IEA 2013
New world of refining
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mb/d Crude Distillation Additions
OECD ChinaOther Asia Middle EastLatin America Other Non-OECDNet Additions
China45%
Other Asia
14%
Latin America
14%
Middle East
22%Other5%
Regional Share of CDU Expansions
Global CDU capacity seen up 9.5 mb/d; refining capacity
gets more sophisticated
Non-OECD account for all additions, OECD contracts
China leads expansions, but timing unclear
© OECD/IEA 2013
Where did the oil go? OECD Stocks plummet, Steepest monthly draw since 2011 Deficit to five-year average increased to 99.5 mb – widest since 2003
OECD oil stocks plunged 53.6 mb to 2 607 mb at end-November
Crude down 20.3 mb on OECD throughputs jump
Refined products down 32.9 mb
‘Other products’ down 27.3 mb on propane exports petrochemical demand
Refined products deficit to 5-yr avg widened to 115.6 mb
Preliminary data show seasonal draw of 42.5 mb in December
2,550
2,650
2,750
2,850
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mbOECD Total Oil Stocks
Range 2008-2012 Avg 2008-2012
2012 2013
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13 Nov 13
mbOECD Industry Total Oil Stocks
Relative to Five-Year Average
Asia Oceania Americas
Europe OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
US Crude Output Tops 8 mb/d in Nov.
Nov US crude production highest since Nov 1988 2014 US crude output growth seen at 780 kb/d, to average 8.26 mb/d for the year
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13
$/bbl Bakken vs WTI
WTI Bakken
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© OECD/IEA 2013
2013 Non-OPEC Supply Up 1.35 mb/d y-o-y Dec Non-OPEC Supply Dn 335 kb/d on Biofuels
Offset by OPEC declines
2014 non-OPEC growth forecast at 1.7 mb/d, led by North America, with smaller growth in the FSU, South America, and Africa
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13 4Q13 3Q14
mb/d Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y chg
Other North America Total
© OECD/IEA 2013
Demand surprise
US demand revised upwards in 4Q13
October revised up 585 kb/d to 19.3 mb/d
Petrochemical/agricultural demand for LPG
+2.1% Growth in 2013, to 18.9 mb/d, 180 kb/d above month earlier forecast
US50: LPG Demand
1,400
1,800
2,200
2,600
3,000
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
kb/d
Range 08-12 5-year avg
2012 2013