underlying assumptions and possible futures · 2014. 9. 10. · possible futures a. medium-term b....
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The outlook for world energy: underlying assumptions
and possible futures
Aldo Flores-Quiroga Bank of Canada Workshop on Oil Outlooks
Ottawa | 21 July | 2014
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Contents
1. Assumptions
2. Possible futures
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Known
Unknown
Known
Unknown
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Known
Unknown
Known
What we know
What we know we don’t know
Unknown
What we think we know
What we don’t know and cannot aspire to know
in advance
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Known
Unknown
Known
• Sufficient oil and gas reserves to meet demand
• Demand is not where supply is found –for the most part
Unknown
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Known
Unknown
Known
Unknown • Asia energy demand will continue to grow faster than the rest of the world
• OECD energy demand remains flat
• Germany is not going back to
nuclear and Japan is going back, but not completely
• North American oil and gas output is profitable and safe for the environment
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Known
Unknown
Known • Government policy o Energy efficiency o Environment
• Technological change
o Transportation o Power generation
• Geopolitical developments
Unknown
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Known
Unknown
Known
Unknown
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Known
Unknown
Known • Sufficient oil and gas reserves to meet demand
• Demand is not where supply is found –for the most part
• Government policy o Energy efficiency o Environment
• Technological change
o Transportation o Power generation
• Geopolitical developments
Unknown • Asia energy demand will continue to grow faster than the rest of the world
• OECD energy demand remains flat
• Germany is not going back to
nuclear and Japan is going back, but not completely
• North American oil and gas output is profitable and safe for the environment
Are you sure? Why?
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Contents
1. Assumptions
2. Possible futures
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In a nutshell, the new action is about:
Asian demand
and unconventional oil and gas supply
…and trade
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It’s about the share of natural gas
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It’s about what happens outside the OECD
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It depends on what you assume about: • Economic
growth
• Technology
• Policies
• Call on OPEC crude
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In the central scenarios it’s about unconventionals and NGLs
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Contents
1. Possible futures
a. Medium-term b. Long-term
2. Assumptions
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Focus of IEA-IEF-OPEC cooperation on energy outlooks
Treatment of biofuels and unit of measure
Definition of biomass
Categorisation of regional long-term oil demand
Definition of the medium-term
Definition of the long-term Categorisation of light tight oil inside and outside the USA
Treatment of ethane
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The IEA, IEF and OPEC have agreed to continue discussions on the following topics
Sizeable differences in non-OPEC supply for key regions and countries Demand growth outlooks in key countries and regions
Respective outlooks for shale oil
Differences in historical supply and demand data
Improving non-OECD stocks data collection through JODI
Production spare capacity
Treatment of marine bunker fuels
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Appendix
1. Possible futures: the medium term
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