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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 05 February 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

NLCS 20.45 21.60

BRES 47.90 46.20

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,415.93 1.1 13.3

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000

Support 12,350 12,250 12,000

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The positive momentum over the short-term is the main driver at the moment and the QSE Index is still moving up. The MACD and the RSI on the daily chart suggest that the Index may continue further up. On the intraday chart, the RSI reached the overbought area and started to come down from it. The MACD is about to cross its signal line. If it does, then profit booking will start to take place. It is worth mentioning that, until proven otherwise, the Index is not in a clear uptrend and all it has been experiencing is a bounce upward. Also, over the medium-term, the Index is still in a downtrend. Expected Resistance Level: 12,600 Expected Support Level: 12,350

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 04 Feb 15 03 Feb 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 962.6 780.2 23.4

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 672.1 663.8 1.3

Volume (mn) 28.7 16.3 76.1

Number of Trans. 10,798 8,115 33.1

Companies Traded 43 42 2.4

Market Breadth 34:6 37:5 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,635.90 1.1 62.0

All Share Index 3,207.15 1.3 63.3

Banks 3,229.06 -0.2 57.5

Industrials 4,023.42 1.4 61.2

Transportation 2,418.82 0.9 68.5

Real Estate 2,468.71 6.0 68.3

Insurance 3,910.12 1.2 62.5

Telecoms 1,402.62 1.8 52.2

Consumer 7,320.31 0.4 64.8

Al Rayan Islamic 4,314.68 1.9 66.7

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

AHCS 15.95 10.0 71.2

QNCD 141.00 0.7 70.8

MPHC 30.45 8.0 70.5

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 20.45 0.15 659,810

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 20.80 21.60 22.00

Support 20.18 19.05 18.41

Commentary

Overview: The name stabilized above the QR17.50 level for three months. The price did not appreciate in tandem with other Qatari constituents that moved over the past two weeks. Thus, we expect that this lagger may start to move when the rest of the appreciated listed stocks cool down. The Name made an Ascending Triangle and is trading inside that triangle. We expect the price to move up at least to the upper side of the triangle. Expected Target Price: QR21.60 – QR22.00 A break above QR20.80 is needed before buying the stock. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR20.18

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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BRES

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 47.90 1.16 2,283,638

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 48.00 49.00 50.00

Support 46.20 45.20 43.40

Commentary

Overview: The name created a long-legged Doji candlestick on the daily chart while a large number of shares exchanged hands over the past two sessions. Although technical indicators are still bullish on the daily chart, the stock could start correcting downwards. On the hourly chart, BRES’ price movement created what could possibly be a Tweezers Top price formation. That is a bearish formation; its MACD and the RSI are showing evidence of weakness in price appreciation. Expected Price Retreat: QR46.20 A break below QR47.70 could take the price down further to the QR46.20 level.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,415.93 12,222.07 12,290.08 12,332.10 12,400.11 12,468.12 12,510.14 12,578.15 12,185.65 12,955.41 12,991.59

Total Return 18,635.90 18,344.92 18,447.00 18,510.07 18,612.15 18,714.23 18,777.30 18,879.38 18,181.76 19,326.36 19,377.76

All Share 3,207.15 3,154.22 3,172.36 3,183.57 3,201.72 3,219.86 3,231.07 3,249.22 3,119.37 3,294.85 3,299.55

Al Rayan Islamic 4,314.68 4,233.59 4,262.93 4,281.05 4,310.38 4,339.72 4,357.84 4,387.17 4,101.02 4,363.63 4,368.76

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 49.30 48.23 48.62 48.85 49.23 49.62 49.85 50.23 45.07 49.06 51.10

CBQK 69.30 64.63 66.08 66.98 68.43 69.88 70.78 72.23 68.00 70.42 69.18

DHBK 58.30 57.77 58.00 58.14 58.37 58.60 58.74 58.97 56.61 58.00 59.46

QIBK 108.00 106.00 107.15 107.85 109.00 110.15 110.85 112.00 102.22 107.63 103.85

QIIK 84.10 82.17 82.85 83.28 83.97 84.65 85.08 85.77 80.26 84.07 84.57

Insurance

QATI 88.80 87.20 87.66 87.94 88.40 88.86 89.14 89.60 85.95 92.07 88.11

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 128.60 126.07 127.25 127.98 129.17 130.35 131.08 132.27 120.12 124.24 111.12

Industrials

IQCD 153.10 151.17 152.27 152.96 154.07 155.17 155.86 156.97 165.61 178.76 180.23

QEWS 196.50 195.83 196.02 196.14 196.33 196.52 196.64 196.83 188.14 188.49 187.13

GISS 110.50 107.17 108.50 109.33 110.67 112.00 112.83 114.17 96.65 109.43 106.00

QIGD 40.95 38.35 39.21 39.74 40.60 41.46 41.99 42.85 40.06 46.64 53.61

Real Estate

BRES 47.90 46.97 47.39 47.65 48.07 48.49 48.75 49.17 43.65 43.73 41.89

UDCD 25.25 24.82 24.99 25.09 25.27 25.44 25.54 25.72 24.06 25.97 26.26

ERES 16.22 14.86 15.25 15.49 15.88 16.27 16.51 16.90 15.27 17.36 20.88

MRDS 21.02 20.34 20.65 20.83 21.14 21.45 21.63 21.94 19.54 21.64 20.93

Telecommunication

ORDS 113.60 113.07 113.33 113.50 113.77 114.03 114.20 114.47 116.41 121.94 129.73

VFQS 17.08 15.51 16.04 16.37 16.90 17.43 17.76 18.29 15.83 18.19 18.75

Transportation

QGTS 24.31 23.71 23.89 24.00 24.18 24.36 24.47 24.65 23.02 23.66 23.68

QNNS 102.40 100.40 101.09 101.51 102.20 102.89 103.31 104.00 97.02 97.54 96.06 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.