5th world harvardclub_dec5
TRANSCRIPT
• We’re publishing less scientific articles relative to the rest of the world.
• Our share of global patenting is shrinking.
• Our share of global R&D is shrinking.
• We have become net importers of high tech products.
Shift 1Sea Change
Efficiency of U.S. Educational System in Producing Technical Talent is Poor: Higher Ed
• U.S. ranks 80th out of 92 countries in the fraction of its college students who obtain bachelors degrees in the natural sciences and engineering.
• U.S. also ranks 80th out of 92 countries in the fraction of its college students who obtain bachelors degrees in engineering.
“We educate many more people than other nations, but only a small fraction of those choose to major in science and engineering.”
Data from which these calculations were made: National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes.Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1,
NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A). Appendix Table 2-33. In Mayo 2005, National Academies.
Tipping Point
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
2005 ACM International Collegiate Programming
Contest World Championship
April 9-13, 2006 – San Antonio, Texas
Other nations outpace U.S. in engineering graduates.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Eu
rop
ea
nU
nio
n
Ja
pa
n
Ru
ss
ia
U.S
.
S K
ore
a
Ta
iwa
n
# of 1st degree in Engineering / Science
Source: National Science Board, “Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004”; Table 2-33. Russia, India and S Korea data from University of Texas NCR Report 2004
Other nations outpace U.S. in engineering graduates.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Eu
rop
ea
nU
nio
n
Ja
pa
n
Ru
ss
ia
U.S
.
S K
ore
a
Ta
iwa
n
# of 1st degree in Engineering / Science
Source: National Science Board, “Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004”; Table 2-33. Russia, India and S Korea data from University of Texas NCR Report 2004
3 X Each
Tipping Point
In China (3.7MM), 42% of students earn science/engineering Degrees compared to 5% in US (380K).
Source: Gunderson, 2005
April 9-13, 2006 – San Antonio, Texas
Shift 2Double Whammy
Boomers
Generation X
Generation Y
46-64
65-79
80-Present
U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic Trends in the 20th Century , Census 2000 Special Reports, CENSR-4, Table 5, November 2002.
1946
2050
1900
1964
1980
Births
STEM Workers? Boomers, Low SES, Minority & Women.
U.S. Census Bureau, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and
Hispanic Origin,“ released November 18, 2004.
Slower growth!
2008, US will graduate 198,000 Science and Engineering Students to replace 2MM Retiring Boomers
(Gunderson, Texas Workforce Conference, 2005)
2015, 43% of the current workforce will retire
(In Barlow, Jamrog, Human Resources Institute, University of Tampa in Navarro)
2030, 30MM Skilled Worker Shortage
(Gunderson, Texas Workforce Conference, 2005)
Shift 3The Equalizer
Census Bureau Projections to 2100U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(in th
ou
san
ds)
White
Black
American Indian
Asian and Pacific Islander
Hispanic
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html
In John Sargent
Senior Policy Analyst
U.S. Department of Commerce
Census Bureau Projects Tripling of Hispanic & Asian Populations by 2050. Non-Hispanic Whites may Drop To Half of Total Population (US Census, 2004).
More diversity…
Texas Projects 20% Population Growth
(2000-2015)
(Source: Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education, 2002)
As of 2003 Whites No Longer The Majority In
Texas
(US Census Bureau, 2004)
Faster growth and more diversity – now!
Followed by UT, OK and OR.
Shift 4Human Capital
Efficiency of U.S. Educational System in Producing Technical Talent is Poor: K-12
• International (TIMSS) test scores show U.S. 4th graders to be 12th in the world in math; 6th in the world in science
• International (TIMSS) test scores show U.S. 8th graders to be 14th in the world in math; 9th in the world in science
• International (PISA) test scores show U.S. 12th graders to be 24th in the world in math; 22nd in the world in science
“The longer we stay in the educational system, the worse off we are with respect to our peers…”
Data from National Center for Education Statistics . In Mayo 2005, National Academies.(http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pisa/PISA2003Highlights.asp and http://nces.ed.gov/timss/Results03.asp)
Percentage of the population scoring at IALS literacy level 3 or higher on the document scale, 1994-95
5356
6266666767
767780
45
35
504547
49
5852
454652
73
51
17
34
52
0
90
Sw
ed
en
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Be
lgiu
m
Ca
na
da
Sw
itze
rla
nd
(g)
Sw
itze
rla
nd
(Fr)
Ge
rma
ny
Au
str
alia
Un
ite
dK
ing
do
m
Ne
wZ
ea
lan
d
Ire
lan
d
Un
ite
dS
tate
s
Po
lan
d
%
16-25 yrs of age 46-55 yrs of age
Source: Centre for Educational Research and Innovation, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance OECD Indicators 1998
U.S. Older Adults Have Stronger Skills Than Young AdultsU.S. Older Adults Have Stronger Skills Than Young Adults
Of Every 100 Kindergartners:(24 Year-Olds)
Source: US Bureau of Census, Current Population Reports, Educational Attainment in the United States; March 2000, Detailed Tables No. 2 in Latino Health Care Project, 2004.
White Asian Hispanic Black NAI
91 94 62 87 58
62 80 29 54 -
30 49 6 16 7
White Asian Hispanic Black NAI
3 to 1 2 to 1 10 to 1 5 to 1 8 to 1
S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by Race
Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines
As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That GroupBy Race, 2000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Engineering Physical Science Mathematics Computer Science Biological Science
White, non-Hispanics
Asians/Pacific Islanders
Black, non-Hispanics
Hispanics
American Indians or Alaskan Natives
In John Sargent
Senior Policy Analyst
U.S. Department of Commerce
College Graduates by Age 24Young People FromHigh Income Families
48%
Young People FromLow Income Families
7%
Source: Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post Secondary, 1997 in Latino Health Care Project, Report at Casey Journalism School for Children and Families
Shift 5Historical
Kurzweil’s Exponential Pace of Innovation
Keystone Events
The pace of technological change “advances (at least)
exponentially”. –Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. “So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).”
http://www.arraycomm.com/pcct/coopers_law.htm
Moore’s Law - Shrink volume by 1011 increase Power by 1011
Martin Cooper’s Law - the no. of
conversations (voice and data) conducted
over a given area, in all of the useful radio
spectrum has doubled every 21/2 years for the
last 105 years since Marconi, 1895.
Cooper’s Law1st Gen Mainframe
2nd Gen Mini
3rd Gen PC
4th Gen Sys on Chip
http://www-bsac.eecs.berkeley.edu/archive/users/warneke-brett/SmartDust/
Berkeley’s Golem Dust11.7 mm3 total circumscribed volume
~4.8 mm3 total displaced volume
Berkeley’s Deputy Dust6.6 mm3 total circumscribed
volume
4th Gen
11.7 mm3
6.6 mm3
My daughter’s first computer at age 1 hour.
Integrates sensors, batteries, a control chip, and an RF transmitter in
a 35mm-long housing.
University of Glasgow’s
Lab-in-a-Pill
http://www.olympus.co.jp/en/news/2004b/nr041130capsle.cfm
Shift 6Millennial
Adapted from Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
What is fueling this progress?
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
S&T Convergence
MIT Tech Review, 2005
Sensors
Physical
Chemical
Biologicalhttp://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/03102801.pdf , page 16
Actuators
Physical
Chemical
Biological
“Robots at same stage as 1978 PCs.”
--Baylor University,
Carbonara and Korpi
Machine Actors
v
v
MIT Tech Review, 2005
This is a ROBOT
http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/03102801.pdf , page 16
Richard E. Smalley, Robert Curl and Harold Kroto won 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the discovery of a structure of carbon atoms known as a “buckyball”.
http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/pubaf/pr/PR_display.asp?prID=04-85
http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/pubaf/pr/PR_display.asp?prID=04-85
Pins can be added to a buckball to form an X, Y, Z coordinate system to DNA—a symmetry between fullerenes and DNA.
NanoBionics: Technical applications of biological molecules including protein-based
materials, DNA-based materials, biomineralization, cellular systems and
bioelectronics. http://www.nanobionics3.de/
Shift 7Pedagogy
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
What is the impact of S&T Convergence to
education?
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
Chemistry Engineering
BiologyPhysics
Educational Convergence
MST&G
Transdisciplinarity
Transdisciplinarity
• Creating new knowledge, processes and systems.
• Structurally converging knowledge, processes and systems.
• Integrating learning, working and problem solving.
• Engaging real world needs and problems.
Source: Brazell, IC2 Institute, 2004
Yang Cai, Ingo Snel, Betty Chenga, Suman Bharathi, Clementine Klein d, Judith Klein-Seetharaman; Carnegie Mellon University, University of Frankfurt, Research Institute, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine.
www.andrew.cmu.edu/~ycai/biogame.pdf
BIOSIM 1.0
Shift 8Learning
Creation of new knowledge, processes & systems.
Game Building is Transdisciplinary
MillennialsNot Low Socio-Economic Status
Female, 4, 8%
Male, 46, 92%
Average Age Respondent 15
Avg. Age Start Playing Games 5
Avg. Hours of Play Per Week 24
% Mod’ers 34%
Average Hours Mod'ing Per Wk. 5
Average Age Start Mod'ing 12
50 Game Camp Respondents to Date
ScienceMODMOD’ingMOD’erArtSKINSKIN’ingSKIN’er
Why do you modify games?
9
8
14
3
9
8
8
9
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Playing Yes
Playing No
Learning Yes
Learning No
Show Yes
Show No
Better Yes
Better No
Math Engineering
TechScience
Game Builder
?
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
Math Engineering
TechScience
Game Builder
ART/Design
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
Math Engineering
TechScience
Game Builder
TEAMS
22
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Graduate HS Graduate CC or TC Graduate University
Plans for education
Computer Science 20
Video Game Design 9
Design/Art 8
Write in to survey
Shift 9Game
Games for…
Games for Health
Serious Games
Games for Change
Learning Games
ADMS
(ITSEC 2005)
Improved Target Acquisition System Trainer
First Person & Fidelity
USC ISI and Tactical Language Training
(ITSEC 2005)
NETC – 24 Blue
(ITSEC 2005)
Player is Incident Commander or subordinate crisis responder. Responds to events with choices that should mirror Department of Justice NICS doctrine.
• Tactical Map set in player’s home county • ICS “hints” throughout gameplay• Coordination and communication required for success• Full-scale training is unaffordable for small jurisdictions*• Permits widespread distribution to many users*
*88% of all jurisdictions are considered to be small.
Incident Commander
Recommendation: Emphasize human-to-human computer mediated
communication, interaction and learning.
Virtual U models the attitudes and behaviors of the academic community in five major areas of higher education anagement: • Spending and income decisions such as operating budget, new hires, incoming donations, and management of the endowment; • Faculty, course, and student scheduling issues; • Admissions standards, university prestige, and student enrollment; • Student housing, classrooms, and all other facilities; and • Performance indicators.
Enlight Software, the Jackson Hole Higher Education Group, and the Institute for Research on Higher Education at the University of Pennsylvania (data), with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Spencer Foundation. www.virtual-u.org
food-force.com
Produced by the United Nations' World Food Programme, Kids join a team of emergency aid workers to save the fictitious island of Sheylan from starvation caused by drought and civil war.
The team goes on six missions to help save the island. The additional missions cleverly use games to demonstrate how emergency aid teams acquire food, make food packs, deliver food and establish long-term food supplies.
GlucoboyThe video game that runs on blood.
Shift 10Human Factors
Overlays
Control
http://www.pong-story.com/odyssey.htm#P1
1972
http://www.pong-story.com/odyssey.htm
“Ready or not, computers are coming to the people.” --Stewart Brand, Rolling Stone December, 1972
New HCI
Senses geo location for game interaction.
New HCI & HSI
It appears to the viewer as a full-color image with the resolution of a giant desktop display… contrast ratio of 5,000 compared with 500 for a typical laptop LCD.
Microvision
Vienna University of Technology
Players operate track switches and adjusting the speed of virtual
trains to prevent virtual trains from colliding. Researchers Daniel
Wagner, Thomas Pintaric and Dieter Schmalstieg
Vienna University of Technology Players operate track switches and adjusting the speed of virtual trains to prevent virtual trains from colliding. Researchers Daniel Wagner, Thomas Pintaric and Dieter Schmalstieg
Through mixing realities, research is
expanding the potential of embedded training
in the field and in battle labs to provide
integrated training anytime, anywhere. Advancements are
being transferred across industries
from business prototypes to
hospitality training.Integrated research in tracking, registration,
rendering, display, and scenario delivery are
expanding the possibilities of
CONSTRUCTIVE simulation as well as
after action review, and command and control
visualizations.
First Person & Fidelity
Shift 11Economic Development
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
S&T Convergence
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
Convergence Technopolei
S. KoreaFinlandJapan
DC MSACentral Florida
San Diego County
transitioning from a manufacturing to an innovation economy http://mit.edu/cre/research/ncc/proceedings/ncc-casestudies.pdf
Today, Finland’s progressive strategy includes: multi-disciplinary and multi-industry collaboration to integrate nano science-, bio science-, information science- and cognitive science-based research and development (Tieke, 2005, p.9); converging design, art and science in the contexts of education and human development (Tahkokallio and Koivusilta, 2004, p.1); national R&D policy and urban-rural development establishing connected regional centers of innovation; partnering with global high tech markets and industries (Embassy of Switzerland, Beijing, 2005, p.12); and leading the world in “Public-Private Partnership” (with efforts dating back to the year of their independence, 1917) (Tieke, 2005, p.12-15).
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
What differentiates convergence technopolei?
?
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
CultureHuman
Development
STEMArt
Convergence Technopolei
Fusion
Shift 12Jobs
Charles Ostman
Senior FellowInstitute for Global Futures
NEURO NANO
BIOINFO
Global Jobs Pull
Council on Competitiveness:National Innovation Initiative
Samuel Palmisano (CEO, IBM): The future breakthroughs are going to be in
interdisciplinary cooperation -- combinations of biology, chemistry, and computational science.
Roughly 100 million jobs are going to be created in a lot of these cross-disciplinary
fields: bioinformatics, hydrogen fuel cells, broadband infrastructure, on and on.
--Business Week: 10.11.2004
$35K - $45K
$25K$40K - $50K
$45K - $65K
Navy “Job Mergers”
Shift 13Text Book
MillennialsLow Socio-Economic Status
Goldberg’s Crew, Houston Community College
MillennialsNot Low Socio-Economic Status
Ninja’s Crew, Houston Community College
The toys we
play with as
children!
0
102030
405060
708090
100
High schoolor less
Communitycollege/technical
Collegedegree or beyond
How Much Education do You Want?
WhiteAfrican AmericanLatinoOther
How much education?
A. Gold, IC2 Institute, UT Austin, Forthcoming
22
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Graduate HS Graduate CC or TC Graduate University
Plans for education
Computer Science 20
Video Game Design 9
Design/Art 8
Write in to survey
First Flight 3 of 6
Dave Kenny
Shift 14Pipeline
ITSA
Greg White, UTSA:
”K-PhD”
GST
ACCD
ITSA
Greg White, UTSA:
”K-PhD”Pi p
e l ine
Star t y
ou
ng
er!
TEAMSNorthwest Vista College, San Antonio
Population: 1.4MM Growth: 1200/day
Educational Sites 3 - 5 minutes
EA online games 9 minutes
AOL Entertainment 10 minutes
Whyville.net 59 minutes
Yahoo! Games 78 minutes
MEAN TIME PER USER LOGIN Discovery.com: 96 million
Whyville.net: 58.4 million
BigChalk: 11 million
Time for Kids: 8 million
New York Times Learning Net: 1.2 million
Cosmogirl: 425,000
PAGE VIEWS
© num
edeon, inc . 2003
The average time per log in July was 3.8 hours making it second to Neopets.
Brigadier General Robert
F. McDermottRETIRED
"when the economic history of San Antonio in the 1980s is written, the most influential individual will be McDermott" --Mayor Henry Cisneros
Founder Air Force Academy
1. Accelerated Credit2. Transfer Credit3. Broaden Education4. Automation
Shift 15Brand
Alamo & Frontier Legends
Missions
San Jose
San Juan
Espada
Concepcion
Connect S&T and Tourism
Awareness inside of 1604 and outside
Connect military history to our birth as a S&T hub starting in 1910
Set the stage for San Antonio MSA 2110
Benjamin D. Foulois
1910
Lt. Colonel Edward
White
Pilot for Gemini 4, which was a 66-revolution, 4-day mission June 3 - 7, 1965.
1965
CACI
Northrop Grumman
Lockheed Martin
General Electric
Pratt & Whitney
Chromalloy
Proxtronics
Veridian
Mitre
OnBoard Soft
Secure INFO
dNovus
Frontline Systems
Karta
Secure LOGIX
Titan
Adtech
Digital Defense
Denim Group
SFBR2010
Let’s have a party!
2010
Shift 15Culture
SFBRScience
SFBRScience
Art
SFBR
ArtCulture
Science
SFBR2110
SFBR3110
Shift 16Mission
GAME TEAMS
Games have captured millennials imagination
and time.
Leverage the attention economy of games to
develop next generation workforce.
We need to pierce the veil of play and support
game-based constructivist learning.
Transdisciplinarity is the common
denominator.
Games NANO BIO INFO NEURO
Game Builder = System Builder
Educational Pull
Brigadier General Robert F. McDermott
RETIRED
Acceleration of CreditTransfer of Credit
Broader EducationAutomation
General Bernard A. Schriever RETIRED
Dr. Francis Kane
Space Academy
Mars And beyond
