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valueTRANSCRIPT
1257 Business Locations 576 cities www.motilaloswal.com
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MAY 2010
Dear investor,
The 4QFY10 numbers are generally in line with expectations. Hence, the FY10 EPS figure
for Sensex companies will be about Rs.800. The expectation for FY11 is now about Rs1,050,
a 30% rise from FY10. This gives a valuation of 22 times trailing (FY10 earnings) and 16
times FY11 earnings. Not cheap on either parameter, but rightly priced.
If we expect the same trailing multiplier a year later in April 2011, the target would be
about 22,000 for the Sensex, obviously the same percentage growth as the estimated EPS
growth. How smooth the ride will be from 17,300 to 22,000 pts, however, remains to
be seen.
Unfortunately, it is not very smooth right now. Rightly valued is the key word. That is why
we find the overall movement has been sideways over the past few months. Today’s level
of about 17,300 pts was first touched in October 2009.
Six months later, in May 2010, we are at the same level.
There have been sharp dips and slow and gradual recoveries, retesting previous tops,
crossing them and a wait for the next sharp dip. From a high of 17,493 in October 2009
there was a fall of 2,163 pts to 15,330 in 3 weeks. A recovery of 2,460 pts followed,
taking the Sensex to the next new intermediate high of 17,790 in 9 weeks. The next fall
of 2,139 pts took 5 weeks, but a recovery of 2,349 pts took 9 weeks.
We expect a similar pattern to play out in the future. We will see the markets go nowhere
over prolonged periods with intermittent sharp falls for various reasons: the Greek crisis,
PIG debt swarm or Chinese exposure.
The corrections, fortunately, may not be sharper this time as the India story today seems
to be more certain, resulting in buying on 5-7% dips and immediate profit bookings due
to global uncertainty as previous highs are scaled. The buyers and sellers are entities with
different returns expectations and time frames. Bad monsoons however, will make
bets dicey.
In such a scenario, buying undervalued stocks with good fundamentals at dips and waiting
for the valuation story to play out seems the obvious strategy. That is always the case,
but it is most appropriate now.
Happy investing
Sincerely yours,
Manish Shah
Associate Director
Retail Equities and Derivatives
Ifyoufind
yourself
caught in a‘market frenzy’
go for a
walk and cool
down
MOSt 3x3
GAIL : CMP: Rs.429
GAIL is a major gas transmission, processing, distribution and marketing company in India, with interests in gas distribution, petrochemicals,
LPG, and telecom. It owns ~7,000km of pipelines (including LPG transmission pipelines), 410KTA petchem capacity, 1.3m ton LPG / other
hydrocarbons capacity and over 13,000 km of optical fiber cable network. GAIL is also involved in city gas distribution, E&P and power
businesses through its joint ventures. As per PNGRB regulations, we believe that GAIL could be asked to charge the current tariff from those
using the old pipeline while those on new network will be charged a higher tariff. We value GAIL on SOTP basis at Rs.485 (core business at
14x FY12E EPS), investment value of Rs.54/ share and E&P value of Rs.23/share). Maintain Buy.
GVK POWER : CMP: Rs.45
GVK group is a diversified business entity with a predominant focus on Infrastructure and Urban Infrastructure projects. It also has a significant
presence in the Hospitality, Services and Manufacturing sector. GVK has acquired additional 17% stake in Bangalore International Airport (BIAL)
from L&T for Rs.6.86bn. Consolidated earnings CAGR of 57% over FY10-12E, from Rs.1.1bn in FY09 to Rs.3.2bn in FY11E driven by
contribution from power projects, and superior profitability of roads and airports businesses. Equity investment of Rs.18-20bn over next 3 years
could be largely funded through FY11-12 accruals of Rs.12-13bn.
MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA : CMP: Rs.526
Mahindra & Mahindra is the leading Utility Vehicles (UV) and Tractor manufacturer in the country. Its market share in overall tractor sales stands
at 40%+. It is also expected to benefit from the Government's thrust on the development of the rural economy. We remain positive on
M&M's prospects, driven by dominance in core business of UVs & tractors, coupled with cheap valuations. After a sharp correction, the stock
is now trading at attractive valuations at 11.3x FY10E and 9.9x FY11E consolidated EPS.
MARUTI : CMP: Rs.1,279
Maruti Suzuki is the largest passenger vehicle manufacturer in India, with 0.8m units. It dominates the small cars segment with ~60% market
share. It is also emerging as the global export hub of small cars for Suzuki, with world strategic model A-Star exclusively produced in India.
Maruti has underperformed since January 2010 on account of concerns of increasing competition in the small cars. While there will be several
new small car launches, we believe that the new players will take at least 4-5 years to establish their distribution network to impact Maruti's
volumes. We maintain Buy with a target price of Rs.1,820.
TULIP TELECOM : CMP: Rs.842
Tulip is a leading player in the Indian enterprise data segment focused on providing connectivity to corporates, SMEs and government verticals.
Tulip has an outstanding track record, having scaled up to a dominant ~30% market share in the largest and fastest growing VPN segment
within 5 years. Tulip's 'one-stop-shop' approach has warranted adding capabilities like managed services, which fortify its data connectivity
business, and downsizing the legacy low-margin network integration business. Continued growth in wireless connectivity and increased
traction from fiber rollout should support 26-32% CAGR in revenue, EBITDA and earnings. We expect FY10 PAT growth to be ~6% due to
higher depreciation and finance expenses. However, we expect it to accelerate to 27% CAGR over FY10-12 despite an increase in tax rates
(partial sunset of exemptions). We maintain Buy with price target of Rs.1,250.
SBI : CMP: Rs.2,300
State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest commercial bank in India, with a balance sheet size of over Rs.7t.n The government owns 57% of the
bank, with FIIs owning 20% (maximum permissible is 20%). Over the last couple of years, SBI has been focusing on drawing significant
synergies through an internal consolidation of its associate banks. Fee income growth remains impressive, with 9MFY10 growth of 45% and
3QFY10 growth of 35% YoY. Savings deposits grew 32% YoY and CASA deposits grew of 30% YoY (4% QoQ). Reported CASA ratio improved
200bp QoQ and 640bp YoY to 42.94%. SBI would command valuation premium for its size and for being proxy to Indian economy.
Considering the consolidated RoE of 16-18% over FY09-12, we value SBI at 1.6x FY12E consolidated ABV. Our target price is Rs.2,700 (1.6x
FY12E consolidated ABV + Rs.125 per share for SBI Life).
Top picks of the month.
2 MOSt Wealth
Research Update
GAIL (India)19th April 10 / CMP: Rs.404
45% increase in FY12 HVJ-DVPL blended tariff
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has
declared the provisional transmission tariff for GAIL's HVJ-DVPL
pipeline network. The tariff for HVJ-DVPL has been separated into
two parts: (1) tariff for existing network, and (2) tariff for new
expanded DVPL network. The tariff for the existing network has
been kept almost flat at Rs.960/mscm, while the tariff for the new
expanded network is fixed at Rs.2,014/mscm (newly introduced).
This tariff will be valid for 1 year, post which the Board will fix the
tariff for the next 5 years based on actual parameters. We believe
tariff for the existing pipeline will not change even after 1 year, as
PNGRB would have considered the actual costs for the existing
network. For the new network, we believe the revision after 1 year
could be only about 2-3%. The declared tariffs will be applicable
from November 2008, however implementation seems tough. Even
if we assume that GAIL will have to return the excess tariff it earned
from its customers from November 2008, we estimate the amount
will not be more than Rs.863mn. (EPS impact of Rs0.7).
KG-D6 volumes in new network to boost average tariff
Majority of the incremental KG-D6 volumes will flow through GAIL's
expanded HVJDVPL network, thus boosting the average tariff. RIL
is expected to ramp up its volume from the current 60mmscmd to
80mmscmd soon and has indicated that the increase is contingent
upon GAIL's de-bottlenecking of HVJ-DVPL network.
We expect GAIL's transmission volumes to grow at 18% CAGR
We expect GAIL’s transmission volumes to grow by 18% CAGR to
208mmscmd by FY14, driven by spurt in domestic gas volumes
from RIL’s KG-D6, ONGC, GSPC’s KG basin block, and Petronet
Dahej Terminal (RLNG) expansion. Currently, the volumes transported
stand at 115mmscmd and are likely to increase to 120mmscmd in
April 2010 and 130mmscmd in October 2010. Of the estimated
60mmscmd gas production from RIL's KG-D6 block, GAIL currently
transmits ~32mmscmd (53% of the total). As RIL is slated to increase
production, we have also built higher volumes for GAIL in our
estimates. We currently build average gas transmission volumes of
Y/E NET SALES ADJ.PAT EPS EPS *P/E *P/BV ROE ROCE *EV/ *EV/
MARCH (RS. MN) (RS. MN) (RS.) GROWTH (%) (X) ( X ) ( %) ( %) SALES EBITDA
3/09A 237,760 28,511 22.5 12.1 14.8 2.9 19.0 24.8 1.7 8.5
3/10E 247,852 30,104 23.7 5.6 14.0 2.5 17.8 23.1 1.8 8.5
3/11E 326,945 37,021 29.2 23.0 11.4 2.1 18.8 21.5 1.5 7.4
3/12E 379,964 43,213 34.1 16.7 9.8 1.8 18.7 17.9 1.5 6.8
STOCK PERFORMANCE (1 YEAR)
GAIL (India)
130mmscmd in FY11 and 152mmscmd in FY12 as against actual
volume of 107mmscmd in FY10.
New cross-country pipelines likely to have tariff of Rs.1,600-
2,000/mscm
GAIL is working on three new 64mmscmd cross-country pipelines:
(1) Kochi- Mangalore-Bangalore, (2) Jagdishpur-Haldia, and (3)
Dabhol-Bangalore. Equipment orders have commenced for some
sections and pipelines are likely to be completed by FY12.
Commissioning of Jagdishpur-Haldia pipelines will be in sync with
the Kakinada-Haldia pipeline by Reliance. GAIL's Kochi-Mangalore-
Bangalore pipeline is expected to be completed by FY12 to deliver
LNG from the Kochi terminal. Petronet management has also
emphasized that the Kochi LNG terminal project is on track. The
tariff for these pipelines based on the estimated capex is likely to be
in the range of Rs.1,600-2,000/mscm.
Valuation and view:
We have built gas transmission volume growth of 18% CAGR to
208mmscmd by FY14. We have not factored in any meaningful
capacity increase for GAIL's LPG production and transmission
business, and have built in conservative price realizations. We factor
in upstream subsidy sharing at 90% of the auto fuel under-recoveries
in our assumptions. Our key earnings model assumptions are
summarized below.
*Adjustment for investments
MOSt Wealth 3
New Research Report
A play on the enterprise data opportunity:
Tulip is a leading player in the Indian enterprise data segment
focused on providing connectivity to corporates, SMEs and
government verticals. Tulip has an outstanding track record, having
scaled up to a dominant ~30% market share in the largest and
fastest growing VPN segment within 5 years. Sector growth
remains strong driven by increasing bandwidth demand and
expansion of data networks. Tulip is well set to exploit the ~Rs.75bn
enterprise data market, which is estimated to clock a
5-year CAGR of 20-25%. The government vertical, which
contributes <5% of revenue, is likely to be an additional growth
driver. Key strengths: dominant market presence, diversified
customer base, focused service portfolio and the sticky nature of
enterprise customers. Key concerns: potential technology
disruption and scale differential v/s large telcos.
Broadbasing the business mix:
Tulip's 'one-stop-shop' approach has warranted adding capabilities
like managed services, which fortify its data connectivity business,
and downsizing the legacy low-margin network integration
business. Recent fiber rollout for last mile should enable Tulip to
tap high-bandwidth connects, complementing its strong foothold
in wireless. Fiber rollout allows capturing higher share of clients'
requirement, increasing the addressable market by 5-6x. Initial
traction has been strong with fiber contributing ~20% to data
connectivity revenues v/s nil earlier.
Strong EBITDA traction to accelerate earnings; peak
capex over:
Continued growth in wireless connectivity and increased traction
from fiber rollout should support 26-32% CAGR in revenue, EBITDA
and earnings. EBITDA margin has expanded to ~27% from 20-
21% over FY07-09, led by increasing mix of data connectivity and
should stabilize at 28-29%. While FY10 PAT growth will be only
Tulip Telecom20th April 10 / CMP: Rs.828
YEAR NET SALES EBITDA EPS EPS P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SALES ROE ROCE
END (RS. MN) (RS. MN) ( RS. ) GROWTH (%) ( X ) ( X ) (X ) (X) (%) (%)
3/09A 16,144 3,367 73.7 35.3 11.2 4.1 9.4 2.0 44.5 17.8
3/10E 19,762 5,169 82.7 12.2 10.0 2.9 6.5 1.7 32.9 16.2
3/11E 25,777 7,048 95.8 15.9 8.6 2.2 4.8 1.3 28.5 16.2
3/12E 31,284 8,997 133.6 39.4 6.2 1.6 2.7 0.8 30.0 18.7
STOCK PERFORMANCE (1 YEAR)
Tulip Telecom
~6% due to higher depreciation and finance expenses, we expect
it to accelerate to 27% CAGR over FY10-12 despite an increase in
tax rates (partial sunset of exemptions). Tulip's capex jumped 2.8x
in FY09 to ~Rs.7.4bn as the company upgraded its VPN network
and invested in fiber layout, SWAN projects and data centers.
Capex intensity, which rose to 46% in FY09 from 16-20% over
FY06-08, is expected to stay high at 28% in FY10 and then
normalize at 12-17%.
Attractive valuations, initiate with Buy, target of Rs.1,250:
We initiate coverage of Tulip Telecom with a Buy rating and DCF-
based March 2011 target price of Rs.1,250 (51% upside). At our
target, Tulip would trade at 9.4x FY12E P/E and 4.6x EV/EBITDA.
Our DCF is based on a terminal growth rate of 4% and WACC of
13.5%. Key long-term assumptions include (1) a progressive
decline in margins from ~25%, led by increased competition,
and (2) capex intensity reducing to ~7% on a terminal basis and
the addition of ~50,000 connects a year on a long-term basis
with largely stable ARPU.
4 MOSt Wealth
Model Portfolios
MOSt Wealth 5
Scrip MBP* Wtg.*
AGGRESSIVE - High Risk, High Returns
Bajaj Auto 1950 H
M&M 540 H
SBI 2,000 H
Anant Raj Industries 155 M
Bombay Rayon 220 M
Idea 66 M
India Cement 140 M
IOC 300 M
JSW Steel 1000 M
Lupin 1,600 M
Nagarjuna Construction 176 M
Prakash Industries 225 M
Sterlite Industries 800 M
Cash 20
Investment % 100Our Aggressive Portfolio works on the principle of ‘no pain no gain’. The target returns arehigh at 30%+. Portfolio includes commodity, cyclical and small-cap stocks.
Allocation (%)
Sector Agg. Mod. Def.
Automobiles 20 20 20
Banking 10 15 20
Pharma 5 10 10
Telecom 5 5 5
Cement 5 5 5
Others - - 5
FMCG - 5 10
Metals 15 15 -
Real Estate 5 5 5
Infrastructure 5 5 -
Oil & Gas 5 5 15
Textile 5 - -
Engineering - - 5
Cash 20 10 0
Total 100 100 100
Additions or deletions of stocks are being communicated through our morning conferencecalls, Most Market Action emails or on AWACS during market hours.
Select the portfolio that best suits your risk profileThe Sensex slipped marginally by 31 pts during April 2010 to
close at 17,559 p ts. Despite impressive quarterly results for
4QFY10, the Indian markets could not sustain the momentum
due to global cues. The fall can be attributed to the debt crisis in
Greece and fears that the crisis might spread to other European
countries. We are positive about the prospects of FII inflows to
India, macroeconomic resilience, sustained growth and a good
monsoon.
We have made a few changes in our portfolio, expecting higher
earnings growth. We have booked profit in ICICI Bank in the
aggressive portfolio, after a decent gain. However, we exited DLF
from the aggressive and moderate portfolio on concerns of higher
interest rates and subdued realty demand.
We expect impressive results will result in further gains for Hero
Honda, Bank of Baroda, JSW Steel, India Cement and Bajaj Auto.
We are bullish on oil marketing companies, expecting
implementation of the Kirit Parekh recommendations. Bank of
Baroda touched a new high after the company reported better
than expected 4QFY10 results. Driven by strong growth in exports,
Bajaj Auto's April volumes grew by 85% YoY to 313,472 units
(against our estimate of 295,000 units). These are the highest
volumes for all segments, including exports.
We expect SBI to report strong growth in NII and loan
disbursements. Shriram Transport touched a new high after the
company posted 4QFY10 PAT growth of 72% YoY (v/s our est. of
62%) at Rs.2.6bn, ahead of our estimation. We are bullish on
GSK Pharma and Cipla. We believe Cipla is strongly positioned to
emerge as a key supplier of generic products to MNCs due to its
large manufacturing infrastructure, strong chemistry skills and large
capacity for inhalers.
With such changes, we will be invested to the tune of 80%, 90%
and 100% in the aggressive, moderate and defensive portfolios
respectively.
MBP* :Maximum Buying Price. One should not buy the stock if Price is above MBP.
Wtg .*Wtg .*Wtg .*Wtg .*Wtg .* :Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5%:Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5%:Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5%:Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5%:Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5%
Scrip MBP* Wtg.*
MODERATE - Medium Risk, Medium Returns
Hero Honda 1,800 HM&M 540 HSBI 2,000 HAnant Raj Industries 155 MBank of Baroda 600 MCipla 330 MGSK Consumer 990 MGSK Pharma 1,500 MIdea 66 MIndia Cement 140 MIOC 300 MJSW Steel 1000 M
Nagarjuna Construction 176 MPrakash Industries 225 MSterlite Industries 800 M
Cash 10
Total Investment% 100Some moderation is achieved in this portfolio by investing in large and growth stocksavailable at value. The aim is to generate 20%+ annualized returns with less risk.
Scrip MBP* Wtg.*
DEFENSIVE - Low Risk, Low Returns
Gail 400 H
M&M 540 H
SBI 2000 H
Hero Honda 1800 H
Anant Raj Industries 155 M
Bank of Baroda 600 M
BHEL 2400 M
Blue Star 330 M
BPCL 535 M
Cipla 330 M
Colgate Palmolive 544 M
GSK Consumer 990 M
GSK Pharma 1,500 M
Idea 66 M
India Cement 140 M
Shriram Transport 500 M
Cash 0
Total Investment% 100Our Defensive portfolio works on the principle of balanced growth to outperform themarket. The aim is to get annualized returns in excess of 15% taking minimal risks.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
Perspective
Travelog- the analyst’s diary
We visited 9 metal companies, three coal mines, a chromite mine, a manganese ore mine and iron ore mines in Chhattisgarh, Orissa and
Jharkhand. In about 8 days, we traveled nearly 2,000km to cover every aspect of steel making, coal mining and aluminum
smelting.
Key takeaways from our tour:
• In the last decade, large numbers of coal blocks were allotted for captive mining with the aim of increasing India’s coal production. Mid size
metal companies were key beneficiaries. Although there are significant procedural hurdles, metal companies have been successful in opening
coal mines in Chhattisgarh. But most companies in Orissa don’t expect mines to start operations in 2-3 years due to issues such as land
acquisition. Our limited interaction with locals in Orissa was not very encouraging. Jayaswal Neco, Sarda Energy, Prakash Industries, Monnet
and Jindal Steel & Power have been mining coal in Chhattisgarh. IMFA is the only metal company in Orissa, which will start coal production
in one year’s time.
• Jayaswal Neco, was a new discovery on this visit, which has high quality coal assets in Chhattisgarh and a relatively large 1mtpa steel
production capacity in Raipur. It recently came out of CDR (corporate debt restructuring) and consolidated its group companies. We visited its
underground coal mine to watch coal blasting and experience the after shocks.
• Godawari Power & Ispat and Sarda Energy recently installed pellet plants. Godawari’s plant is operational but Sarda’s plant was shut for
two weeks for modifications. Captive iron ore production and the running of the pellet plant will expand Godawari’s margins while many
other steel mills are forced to cut steel production due to shortage of iron ore. Meanwhile, Sarda’s pellet plant has restarted. We are
upgrading the stock to BUY as valuations have become attractive.
• Sterlite Industries’ subsidiary Sterlite Energy (SEL) has received full coal linkages though the project is running behind schedule by one
quarter. Associate company Vedanta Aluminium (VAL) is also close to a full ramp up of its first phase of its 500ktpa smelter. It took nearly 2
years from the first tapping to full ramp up. The first pot line of its 1.25mtpa phase 2 expansion is nearing commissioning and first metal
tapping is expected in 1QFY11. The management is reconsidering a captive power plant for its phase-2 smelter. We remain positive on
Sterlite Industries.
• Prakash Industries has high class coal assets and steel plants in a peaceful part of Chhattisgarh. It has put on a fast track 625MW power
project though the commissioning schedule looks ambitious. The project has relatively low risk due to availability of land and mineral
resources. Maintain BUY.
• Bhushan Steel was on the verge of commissioning a 1.9mtpa Hot Strip Mill. Blast furnace heating has started. Although the equipment is
world class, the company is unable to attract talented operational manpower. We are downgrading the stock because valuations now
appear full. Its 2.1mtpa production facilities are now being valued expensively at US$4bn implying EV/ton of ~US$1,900.
• IMFA is a fully integrated ferro-7chrome producer with chromite ore mine, a captive power plant and coal blocks. It is poised for growth in
both ferro-chrome and power.
• Barbil region is an iron ore mining area spread on the Orissa-Jharkhand border. Our road travel from Bhubaneswar to Barbil was a pleasant
surprise. Road conditions have improved and we faced no traffic jams as truck movement of iron ore was suspended for two weeks to help
children to take annual examinations. However, the iron ore mining area around Barbil town has only dirt roads with large pot holes. On these
roads, Scorpio and Bolero were the only passenger vehicles plying, and a loaded truck would move faster than an empty one. We were told
that iron ore dispatches were down 80% due to a clamp down on illegal mining, closure of railway sidings, etc. Many secondary steel
producers, dependent on ore from Barbil are ramping down production, and run at critical inventory levels.
• Adhunik Metaliks has rich iron ore and manganese ore mines, and high steel making capacities. Production of ore and steel is likely to post
20-25% CAGR over a couple of years. It is also entering the power generation segment. Maintain BUY.
• On the way from Jharsuguda to Angul, we had a peep at Hindalco’s Aditya Aluminium project site at Lapanga, Orissa. We saw an established
site office and the beginnings of ground leveling work. Hindalco aims to commission a 359,000tpa aluminum smelter and a 900MW captive
power plant by October 2011, which looks ambitious.
6 MOSt Wealth
20 MOSt Wealth
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