6/4/2015olivier martin1 state of the internet & challenges ahead how is the internet likely to...

04/18/23 Olivier Martin 1

State of the Internet & Challenges ahead

How is the Internet likely to evolve during the next decade

[email protected]


Disclaimer The opinions expressed in this talk are

independent of my former affiliation with CERN and, by no means, represent the past and/or current position of CERN.

This presentation is derived from an article with the same title written following a presentation given at the NEC’2007 conference in September 2007 in Varna (Bulgaria)

This article is available from: http://www.ictconsulting.ch/reports/NEC2007-OHMartin.doc


Outline State of the Internet

Research & Education Commercial

IPV6 Deployment Status & Issues Internet Governance Ongoing Internet Rescue Initiatives

The “clean-slate” temptation Conclusions


Opening Remarks “La critique est aisée, mais l’art est

difficile” (Philippe Néricault, 1732) “Criticism is easy, but art is difficult” However, criticisms may help to

establishing the truth and to advancing the state of the art better than hypocrisy, complacency and self-satisfaction (Olivier Martin)


Main Sources TERENA Networking Conference 2007 RIPE55 NANOG41 CCIRN 2007 IEPG 2007 Australian IPv6 Summit OECD Workshops IAB Workshops CircleID Posts (Geoff Houston) “Living the Future” (Dirk Trossen (Nokia/BT)


Acknowledments

Bill St.Arnaud (Canarie) Brian Carpenter (University of

Auckland) Steve Goldstein (ICANN)


State of the Internet Today’s Internet is plagued by a number of very serious “ills”

that are threatening, if not its existence, at least its long-term stability as listed below:

IPv4 address space exhaustion and lack of significant IPv6 rollout raising serious doubts about the operational future of IPv6!

Routing stability and Continuous Growth of Routing Table due to multi-homing, in particular.

Domain Name System (DNS) stability: DNS overload, often due to misconfigured servers. Also, the DNS was

designed to reference hosts not multiple objects as commonly found on many Web pages.

Security: Spamming Phishing (fraudulent activities, e.g. stealing credit card numbers,

passwords) Identity theft DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service Attacks)


Internet World Statistics


GEANT (the good things first)

Undoubtedly an outstanding organizational achievement:

30 NRENs, 25 PoPs, 11600 km of fibre, Worldwide High Speed Intercontinental connections, etc.

“Canonical” Internet infrastructure offering a wide range of services that, apart from VPN, very few, if any, commercial ISP provide. :

Multicast Quality of Service IPv6 VPNs Near real-time Bandwidth on Demand (BoD)

Not clear whether these advanced features are much used by the GEANT community!


GEANT (the more questionable aspects) Is it technically state of the art or “off the shelves”? Is dark fiber really the best choice in the medium to long

term? Why are traffic statistics not publicly available unlike

Internet2? What is the sense of providing commercial Internet access

to a subset of the NRENs? Why is there so much emphasis on Bandwidth on

Demand? Is it really BoD or just fast-provisioning? In any case, who really needs it as the largest user groups

(e.g. DEISA, LHC, eVLBI) have essentially static needs! Whereas much of the available capacity is actually

provided as static P2P circuits: LHC & DEISA are using close to 95% of the bandwidth Is it a return to private, mission oriented, networks?


GEANT P2P Circuit Orders

Source David West (DANTE) CCIRN Presentation (August 2007)

LH

C

DE

ISA

Ph

osp

ho

rus

EX

PR

eS

Oth

er

Number of P2P circuits

Total bandwidth (Gb/s)01020304050

60

70

80

90

100

Total Bandwidth / Number of circuits

Projects

Number of P2P circuits

Total bandwidth (Gb/s)


GEANT Applications The largest Grid has been deployed over GEANT

under the auspices of the EU funded EGEE However, Grid computing is far from holding all its

original promises E.g. it fails to work seamlessly in heterogeneous

computing environments, i.e. mixture of operating systems and system architecture

EGEE-III expected to start in May 2008 will be organized on a National basis, i.e. leveraging on the National Grids, in preparation for the transition to the European Grid Initiative (EGI) to be launched later

Will “Cloud Computing” replace or complement Grid technology?


GEANT Evolution Without a technological

breakthrough like, for example, “Coherent Optical Technology”, that would allow the scaling of bandwidth from 10Gb/s to 100Gb/s, GEANT is likely to continue to “degenerate” into a set of “private networks” for the “virtual communities” with the heaviest bandwidth requirements.


The fallacy of bandwidth on demand (Bill St.Arnaud) “Bandwidth on Demand smells the bad days of “circuit

switched networks” “Around the world, many National Research and Education

Networks (NRENs) are focusing on various bandwidth-on-demand schemes for the future Internet architecture that will be used primarily for big science and cyber-infrastructure applications…”

“These same arguments were used to justify the need for ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network), ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode), GMPLS (Generalized Multiprotocol Label Switching), and QoS (Quality of Service)…”

Ergo, you needed an “intelligent” network to anticipate the applications demand for bandwidth.”

This trend bears many similarities with the CONS/CLNP war back in the late 1980’s before Internet was universally adopted


The fallacy of bandwidth on demand (2) “The fact is, no evidence exists yet that big science

traffic volumes, or for that matter Internet traffic volumes, are growing anywhere near what was forecast, even just a few short years ago.”

As evidence of this lack of demand for bandwidth, one only need to look at University of Minnesota Digital Technology Center director Andrew Odlyzko’s MINTS Website, which tracks traffic volume on various commercial Internet and NRENs around the world.

Traffic volume growth rates on R&E networks have declined significantly over the past decade. For example, Internet2’s annual growth is less than 7 percent per year, whereas commercial networks growth rates vary from 25-50 percent per year.


R&E Networks Situation in the USA Internet2 and NLR (National Lambda Rail)

failed to merge for the second time! Is it a good or a bad thing? At the scale of the USA having two

complementary national backbones does not seem to be completely overdue….

Are the USA showing a new way forward or is it just a temporary “phenomena”?


Commercial Internet (1) Commercial Internet is booming with

traffic growth rates around 50% or more per year due to: Peer to Peer applications

Napster, KaZaA, CAN, Gnutella, JXTA Video-on-demand, Video-sharing IPTV, TriplePlay, Skype Social networking & Web 2.0 Sophisticated Search Engines and Content

Distribution Techniques


Commercial Internet (2) However, it is plagued by many problems:

security, routing stability, DNS overload, Last mile bandwidth constraints, exhaustion of IPv4 and extensive use of NATs, Lack of QoS is particularly annoying for real-time

use (e.g. Video, Telephony, Conferencing), No clear sign of migration to IPv6

“The path of least resistance for the industry appears to be that of standardizing NATs” (Geoff Houston)


IPv4 Address Report (1/4/08) Projected IANA Unallocated Address Pool

Exhaustion: 03-Apr-2011 Projected RIR Unallocated Address Pool

Exhaustion: 27-Jun-2012 A rough estimate of the additional time

provided by using the unadvertised address

pool is 19-Jul-2015.

24800

700

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

IPv4

IPv6

Autonomous Systems


The sad IPv6 saga The original dual-stack migration strategy and IPv6

specifications RFCs date back to the 1994-1995 period (RFC1671, RFC1752, RFC1883, RFC1884)

Some improvements made in 2000-2001 RFC2766 (NAT-PT) (Feb. 2000) RFC3056 (6to4) (Feb. 2001)

Some recent developments RFC2766 re-classified from “Operational” to “Historical” by

RFC4966 in July 2007 Why did it take so long to the IETF to identify critical issues with

RFC2766? New drafts RFC tackling the issue of v4 to v6 and back

communications issued at the end of 2007 Problem statement and analysis of IPv6<->IPv4 Translators (NAT64) by

A. Gagnolo, Huawei Labs at UC3M IANA about to allow an IPv4 trading model to be developed

Will it accelerate the deployment of IPv6 or have the opposite effect?


The false IPv6 selling arguments To a large extent the strongest

proponents of IPv6 have weakened the case for IPv6 by using false arguments such as: Restoration of the “end to end” principle Restoration of Address transparency Multicast Better QoS (flows) Embedded IPSEC Auto-configuration, Plug & Play, etc


Internet Governance


Internet Governance (1) ICANN

IANA (technical) IPv6 availability in 6 out of the 13 root servers What will be the effect of the recent proposal to

create an IPv4 “trading model”? Slowdown the transition to IPv6 or accelerate it?

ASO Working with the RIRs to facilitate IPv6 adoption

IDN (Internationalized Domain Names) Tests well underway for 11 non-roman Top Level

Domains (TLD)


Internet Governance (2) ISOC

IETF Although the consensus has been resisting quite well, it

is no longer working as smoothly as before because of the many conflicting commercial interests at stake.

IAB The guardian of the Internet orthodoxy Running workshops:

State of the network layer (1999) Routing and Addressing (2006) Unwanted Traffic (2006)

IGF Apart from the agreement on a multi-stakeholder

structure, nothing very concrete has yet happened!


Internet Governance (3) OECD’s STI (Science, Industry &

Technology) has been running a number of excellent workshops The future of the Internet (2006) Social & Economic Factors shaping the Future

of the Internet (joint with NSF in January 2007) Incremental versus clean-slate NATs versus IPv6

Fiber investment & Policy Challenges (April 2008)


The “clean-slate” design temptation GENI (NSF)

Experimental, reconfigurable infrastructure allowing multiple slices to be allocated to different user groups to validate their new architectural proposals

NeTS (NSF) FIND (Future Internet Design) NOSS (Networks of Sensors Systems) WN (Wireless Networks) NBD (Networking Broadly Defined)


Clean-slate design (Cont.) GENI Research Plan

A set of very interesting ideas like buffer-less routers DONA (Data Oriented Network Architecture)

Based on publish/subscribe paradigm, self-certifying names,

Stanford MIT’s Communication Future Program (CFP)

See Dirk Trossen slides on Web 2.0 and Net 2.0 European Union (FP7) UCL


Web1.0/2.0 Services & Functionality Comparison

Web1.0 Web2.0

Ofoto (online photos) Flickr (sharing photos)

Bookmarks in browser Social bookmarking (del.icio.us)

Britannica Online Wikipedia

Personal websites Blogging[

Microsoft Outlook (proprietary) Zimbra (open source)

Browsing to websites Subscribing to and receiving RSS feeds (Podcasting)

Publishing Participation

Content created by service Content created by the users

Read-only : All Rights Reserved Add / Modify / Delete : Some Rights Reserved

Directories (taxonomy) Tagging (“folksonomy”). Also TrackBacks.

One service Mashups (housingmaps.com, craigslist)

Some API’s Open API’s, Ruby on Rails[

The service is static The service improves the more it is used, data added

NEC’2007 VARNA (Bulgaria)

Content Scope


Net 1.0/2.0 Envisioned Functionality comparison

Net 1.0 Net 2.0

Mobile IP add-on Locator-identifier separation (HIP], M-FARA[ ....)

Static end-user peeringPersonal Broadband. i.e., BB access based on user’s choice,

dependent on use, location, time & other context

Licensed Spectrum and ISPmentality Open spectrum, cognitive radios -> virtually unlimited bandwidth

Intra-domain, intra-technologyaccess Inter-domain & inter-technology in edge devices

Administrative IP domains Regions based on geography, trust, administration…

Routers in the network Mobile devices acting as (ad-hoc) routers

Management domains based on different technologies Knowledge plane as inherent part of Internet architecture

Several competing (if at all) locationtechniques Universal location support

Little network information available to edge deviceProviding network-level context seen as differentiator and

inherently supported

Scales to hundreds of millions Scales to billions and more (“Internet of Things”, e.g. RFIDs)

Intra-domain QoS (at best) Full E2E (inter-provider) QoS


EU’s Future Network Projects (1)


EU’s Future Network Projects (2)


Extending the use of the e-infrastructure, the ERINA study (1)

“e-Infrastructure” refers to a new way of conducting scientific research by the creation of a new environment for academic and industrial research in which virtual communities have shared access to unique or distributed scientific facilities regardless of their type and location in the world.”

The e-Infrastructure strategy is made up of three layers:

High Throughput Network Computing Infrastructure Scientific Data Repository


Extending the use of the e-infrastructure, the ERINA study (2) The European Commission has already

established a high-capacity and high-speed pan-European backbone for all researches in Europe (GÉANT) and, on top of it, a state of the art, Grid computing infrastructure (EGEE) for specific communities.

The European Commission plans to pursue and generalize this strategy.

The third layer of this e-Infrastructure strategy is the sharing, federation and curation of high-volumes of scientific data for distributed access and sharing between scientific communities.


Extending the use of the e-infrastructure, the ERINA study (3) One of the aims of the European Commission is

to extend the e-Infrastructure from e-Science to other sectors like, e-Culture, e-Learning, e-Commerce, e-Government and e-Health.

The ERINA study analyses and provides recommendations on the mechanisms to bridge leading edge ICT infrastructures and innovation by extending the use of Research Infrastructures to e-Health, e-Learning and e-Government domains.

Let us hope that this layered approach that bears similarities with the construction of the Babel tower will terminate better!


Conclusions The Internet has ossified IPv6 looks “almost” unavoidable but is by no

means “guaranteed” to happen! clean-slate solutions are unlikely to be viable

before 7-15 years the related work may be dangerous as it could create

a political delusion even worse than the “IPv6 cures everything” delusion.

A gradual step-wise evolution appear to be much safer

The instability of the Internet routing system is preoccupying as well as the increasing lack of “network neutrality”, copyright infringements, etc.


Additional slides

Global Crossing converged architecture

The Class A, B & C users in the Netherlands (Cees de Laat)

GEANT2 Topology

Global Crossing’s converged IP network architecture – one network, any service

IP PBX

SIP IP Phones

Enterprise

IP VPN

Global MPLS

2547bisNetwork

SessionBorder

Controller

PSTNIP

On-Net Call

Off-Net Call

GSX

Internet

IP Gateway

IPSec

iMPLSOptionA, B, C

Hybrid TDM / IP

Audio Conferencing

DSL Dialup Wi Fi

VoIP

VoIP Services•VoIP On-Net Plus•VoIP Ready-Access •VoIP Outbound•VoIP Local Services•VoIP Toll Free•VoIP Community Peering

•VoIP Integrity Service•Managed VoIP

•Mobile IP Connect•Remote VPN Access

• IP Video• Video Endpoint

Management• Ready-Access

Video®

Managed Solutions•Professional Services•Fully Managed IP VPN•Managed Network Services•Managed Security•Application Performance Management

• eMLPPP• CRTP• Packet

Interleaving

Access MethodsATM, Frame Relay, PL, DSL, Ethernet, SONET, SDHTrue multicast capabilities

RIP2, BGP, Static OSPF & GRE Tunnels

IPv4 & IPv6IPVPN/ DIA

Managed Security Services

Fully Managed DIA & Security Services

Customer Portal• Visibility & Control

Connect. Communicate. CollaborateGÉANT2 Connect. Communicate. Collaborate

• 25 POPs • 11600 km of fibre + 140 ILA sites• 50+ x (own) 10G lambdas• Additional leased 10 and 2.5 Gbps

circuits • Router tender underway• NREN accesses at up to 10Gbps

(+ backup) + P2P• connections to other R&E

networks: Abilene, ESnet, CA*net4, SINET, TENET, RedCLARA, EUMEDCONNECT, TEIN2

NEC’2007 VARNA (Bulgaria)

Web2.0

6/4/2015olivier martin1 state of the internet & challenges ahead how is the internet likely to...

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