7 Steps to Becoming a Practical HR Futurist

Presented byMichael D. Haberman, SPHR

Omega HR Solutions, Inc.

“The goal of Futuring is not to predict

the future but to improve it.”

-Edward Cornish

“…about thinking about things differently and in so doing you often end up thinking about ‘now’ (the present) in a new light.”Richard Watson author, futurist and scenario planner

The 7 Steps

1. Engage in systems thinking and understand your mental models

2. Look back to look forward3. Scan the environment4. Look at the trends5. Develop scenarios6. Do your forecasting7.“DO”

Our Premise• We are a small construction supply company

• We are in a semi-rural location

• We employee 90 full-time employees in a variety of positions and an additional 30 seasonal employees.

• We have a retail, a wholesale and a production facility

• In addition to business concerns our HR concerns are recruiting, training and retaining key employees

Step One

Engage in systems thinking and

understand you mental models

Thinking about the Building Supply Business

Relies heavily on housing construction Production workers ,

retail workers, sales

Packaging/StorageWarehouse

workers

Delivery & RetailingOffice, Mgmt

ConsumersCustomers

Sales and Marketing

Waste Recycling Labor, Technology

Mental Models- Assumptions & Biases

• People enjoy working on their homes

• Proliferation of DIY shows

• Unsure about the market

• Ready availability of raw materials

• Can the economy sustain itself

• Baby boomers are harder working• Our seasonal workers will be

immigrant labor• It will be hard to attract

professionals• It will be hard to attract younger

workers

About the business

People

Step Two

Look back to look forward

Looking Back to Look Forward

The importance of history

• Housing starts go up and down

• Recession in the first decade was tough to deal with

• Made us realize we need to do things differently in the future

• Big Box stores removed a lot of the market in larger areas

• Rural areas fared better

• Many stores started as general stores

The Industry Our company

• 30 years old• Started as a general store• Founder still involved• Grown by 20% the last two

years with one-third of the employees hired in that time frame

• Newest aspect is the wholesale division

“Future studies do not rely on clairvoyance but on a simple method of collecting information, analyzing it with the future in mind, and telling the story to your organization.”Eric Garland

Two Types of Scanning

Scanning

The ongoing year round process of looking for trends and events that may have implications for the organization.

The Scan

This is the same activity as in scanning but it is focused on a particular activity.

What do you scan for?

STEEP: Social, Technological, Environmental, Economics, Political

STEEPLE: Social, Technological, Environmental, Economics,

Political, Legal, and Ethical

THE FOUR FORCES:

Resources, Technology, Demographics, Governance

DEGEST: Demography, Economy, Government,

Environmental, Society, Technology

PEST: Political, Economic, Societal, Technological

Step 4

Look at the trends

Social Scanning- The Business

• Demographics

• Family life

• Health

• Religion

• Immigration

• Baby boomers make up core home owners

• Millennials are getting into the housing market, often buying older home for rehab

• Home loan interest rates are down

• Married heterosexual couples not the exclusive market anymore

• Immigrant labor

Social Scanning- HR

• Demographics

• Family life

• Health

• Religion

• Immigration

• Major changes in diversity of population

• Work-life balance increasingly important across generations

• Increase in single parent homes

• Increase in same-sex relationships

• Immigration trends still dominated by Hispanic population, but Asian increasing

Technology Scanning- Business

• Biotechnology

• Chemistry

• Information technology

• Manufacturing

• Nanotechnology

• Robotics

• Genetics

• Increases in the sophistication of processing equipment

• Inventory tracking advances-RF scanning

• Point of Sale technology replaces cash registers

• Increases in technology used to cut lumber, robotics

Technology Scanning- HR

• Biotechnology• Chemistry• Information

technology• Manufacturing• Nanotechnology• Robotics• Genetics

• How might technology decrease the need for labor?

• How will technology change job skills requirements?

• Will increasing technology change recruitment sources?

• How will tracking devices impact employee identification?

• How will nanotechnology be integrated into work processes?

• What might be the impact of technology on safety

Economics Scanning- Business

• Globalization

• Poverty- rich/poor gap

• Inflation/Recession

• Currency fluctuation

• Market

• Personal discretionary spending is up the most since 2008

• Increasing size of the “middle class”

• Inflation rates remain low

• Global economic factors seem to have a minimal effect at this time

• Fuel prices are rising

• What is the possible future for import restrictions?

Economics Scanning- HR

• Globalization

• Poverty- rich/poor gap

• Inflation/Recession

• Currency fluctuation

• Market

• How will economic factors impact employee pockets and affect wage demands?

• How will cost of housing affect our ability to attract talent to our geography?

• Is there any aspect of our jobs that can be outsourced?

Environmental (Ecology) Scanning-

Business• Global warming

• Clean water

• Air quality

• Agriculture

• Increasing severity of storms

• Drought possibility

• Effect of pollution on plant growth

• Disease of wood products

• Will air quality issues disrupt transportation?

Environmental (Ecology) Scanning

HR• Global warming

• Clean water

• Air quality

• Agriculture

• Increasing severity of storms

• How will possible seasonal changes affect our seasonal workforce? Effect of cold weather or rainy weather.

• Will clean water issues affect housing starts?

Political (Legal)- Business

• Lawsuits

• Government regulations

• Legislative trends

• International governing bodies

• Wars & regional conflicts

• Crackdown on imports due to political issues with Asian countries

• Increasing safety regulations

• Increasing lawsuits due to inferior materials imported from China

Political (Legal)- HR

• Lawsuits

• Government regulations

• Legislative trends

• International governing bodies

• Wars & regional conflicts

• Will changing immigration laws effect the industry’s seasonal workforce?

• How will we be effected by changes in Wage & Hour regs?

• How will changes in healthcare effect our benefit package?

Step 5

Develop scenarios

The Use of Scenarios

The future is a set of plausible outcomes rather than one future to be discovered.

• Scenarios are stories.

• Talk in terms of people and specifics.

• They should be based on multiple trends.

• They can be broad or focused.

There are four scenarios you should do, four futures you should create. These are:

• Probable

• Preferred

• Plausible

• Possible

My Scenarios- Business

ProbableThe housing and DIY market will have some swings, with each swing in one segment offsetting the swing in the other. People will still want traditional wood materials for flooring. May see improvement in materials as time progresses.

PreferredEconomic conditions continue to improve. Size of the house buying population increases. The demand for DIY materials increases and becomes very fashionable.

PlausibleThere is a backlash to imported goods and “Buy America” becomes stronger than ever. The necessity to use only US based materials increases costs substantially. Move toward synthetic materials over natural materials.

Possible/DisasterThe US goes to war with China reducing imports of wood and hardware to nothing. All viable US alternatives are switched to war time production.

My Scenarios- HR

ProbableWe will continue to have minor problems attracting talent. Competition is fierce and it is hard to compete with higher wages at larger organizations . But our reputation and quality of life allow us to continue to find talent, albeit at a higher wage and less experience.

PreferredAging Millennials desire home ownership. This drives a profitable housing market. High profitability allows us to be good to employees and we become a highly regarded employer.

PlausibleBecause of the number of colleges offering programs the number of high school students in our town wanting to work locally drops, making it difficult to attract and retain talent. Forces us to look to technology as replacement labor.

Possible/DisasterThe housing market falls on hard times once again requiring cutting our labor force significantly for the company to survive. Lay offs may be the death knell for finding labor once a recovery begins.

Step 6

Do your forecasting

Forecasting

Forecasting consists of creating alternative futures. By considering alternative futures you may reduce the likelihood and the magnitude of being surprised.

Look for forecasts, as many as you can, from different experts. You are looking for fundamental shifts that have the potential of shaking the core of the organization.

Experts will usually have a good idea of what the future looks like in their own fields, but you will have to combine multiple views to envision its effects on you.

Impact/Probability Matrix

High Impact

Low Impact

LowProbability

HighProbability

Business as usual

Possible, not probable, minor impact

Developing change-may be positive or negative

Probable

PossiblePreferred

Plausible

Generally unforeseen

Step 7

“DO”

How to get started

• Decide you are going to spend 5% of your time

• Look at your organization with a critical eye, understand the history and the mental models

• List the areas that are currently causing you problems

• Find sources of information and look for trends and forecasts

• Divide and conquer

• Read and research outside your comfort area

• Track what you find

Building a Future Smart Organization

• Be curious- embrace innovation

• Create a culture of consistent innovation

• Fail fast and frequently- failure is a part of learning

• Embrace leading edge technology- before your competition does

• Pay attention to how and why your customers are changing

• Get the talent-to-job fit right

• Investigate how your industry is trending

• Create brief strategic plan to map your new strategy

• Consider how leaders, teams and culture could be Future Smart

from: Future Smart by James Canton

Drivers of the Future • Aging- median age is increasing around the world• Healthcare- delivery and technology• Technology- includes nanotechnology, robotics,

biotechnology, genetics and the Internet• Energy- current and future supplies of fossil fuels,

alternative fuels• Environment- global warming, water and air

quality, sustainability• Powershift - China, India, South America,

Indonesia• Media & communication- merging digital

devices, centralization of media ownership, changing views of the truthfulness of media messages

Resources

Books Other resources/ websites

• Future Files- Richard Watson• Think Like a Futurist- Cecily

Sommers• Lessons from the Future- Stan

Davis• Future, Inc. – Eric Garland• Futuring: The Exploration of the

Future- Edward Cornish• Thinking about the Future- Hines

and Bishop• Managing the Future- Stephen

Millet• Teaching about the Future-

Bishop and Hines• Scenario Planning- Gill Ringland• The 2020 Workplace- Jeanne

Meister & Karie Willyerd• The Future of Work- Jacob Morgan• Future Smart- James Canton

• www.pewsocialtrends.org/

• www.consumersunion.org/research-policies/

• www.conference-board.org/

• www.bls.gov/home.htm

• www.thefuturist.com

• www.wfs.org

• www.hermangroup.com

• www.naisbitt.com

• www.toffler.com

• Google “megatrends”

Contact Information

Michael D. Haberman, SPHR, SHRM-SCPOmega HR Solutions, Inc. Website: www.omegahrsolutions.comTwitter: @mikehabermanLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldhabermanEmail: mhaberman@omegahrsolutions.com