730 acres of vacant land - loopnet · 2017. 11. 3. · 730 acres of vacant land available for...
TRANSCRIPT
730 ACRES OF VACANTLAND
Available for Residential Development
Located in Southern Utah
THE PROPERTY 730 acres of vacant land located in the City of St. George, Utah. The
Property is master planned for residential development, including low, medium & high density,
and a small amount of commercial development. The current owners have been working
closely with the City for the last several years in order to create a Development Agreement that
will mitigate developer fees & costs and at the same time benefit the City in its efforts to create
desirable place to live that will also provide public uses, easy access & flow and utility of the
development.
Rosenberg & Associates is the primary engineer for the property and has completed preliminary
cost estimates for the infrastructure of the entire Property.
Mark Schnippel (702) 304-1947 ext.1 or (702) 592-3364
Investor’s Realty Group
8367 W Flamingo, Suite 100
Las Vegas, Nevada
The information in this package is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Any potential purchaser should verify all pertinent information duringtheir due diligence of the Property. At least five partners of the ownership entity are Nevada Real Estate Licensee’s.This offering is subject to prior sale, price change or market withdrawal.
SITE FACTSLOCATION: West (Green Valley area) St. George, west & adjacent to the Sunbrook
Golf Course.
SIZE: 730 acres gross.
PARCEL NUMBERS: Washington County Assessor SG-6-2-27-330, SG-6-2-27-3311, SG-6-228-
2110, SG-6-2-35-3002, SG-6-2-34-411, SG-6-2-34-412, SG-6-2-341004,
SG-6-2-34-1003, SG-6-2-34-1008, SG-6-2-34-241, SG-6-2-27-428, SG-6-
2-27-236, SG-6-2-34-1016, SG-6-2-34-1013
ZONING: The Property is part of a City approved Master Plan to allow up to 3,196
residential units which includes low, medium & high density and a small
amount set aside for commercial development to serve the development
and surrounding area. While densities are approved, each development
pod must apply to the City for design & review approval. Currently the
owner of this property is not bound by the Master plan, and could develop
the property under its current and fixed underlying zoning which allows
for up to 4 units per acre. (See Attached Development Summary)
INFRASTRUCTURE: All utilities are adjacent and are available to the site with capacity to serve
the entire development.
TOPOGRAPHY: Undulating. The property has many natural features which the proposed
layout of the Property has utilized. Almost all locations of the Property
provide views of the natural terrain and undeveloped BLM land which is
the Property’s westerly border.
ANNUAL TAXES: $109,172.26
ASSESSMENTS: None
TITLE REPORT: Available with offer
PRICE: $55,000,000.00
TERMS: Owner will finance with $15,000,000 down payment; interest rate,payment
schedule and term of loannegotiable.Will consider aJointVenture with
establishedhome builderor equitydevelopmentpartner.
Arial Property View
ABOUT ST. GEORGE, UTAH
St. George is a city located in the southwest part of the U.S. state of Utah, and the county seat of WashingtonCounty, Utah. It is the principal city of and is included in the St George; Utah Metropolitan Statistical Area. Thecity is 119 miles (192 km) northeast of Las Vegas, Nevada, and. 303 miles (48S km) south of Salt Lake City onInterstate 15.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, St George had a population of 82,318 in 2016. The most recent U.S.Census has St George is the fifth fastest-growing metropolitan area in the U.S. In 2015, the metropolitan area(defined as Washington County) had an estimated 155,600 residents.
St. George is the population and commercial center of Utah's Dixie, a nickname given to the area
when Mormon pioneers grew cotton in the warm climate. St. George's trademark is its geology
— red bluffs make up the northern part of the city with two peaks covered in lava rock in the
city's center. The northeastern edges of the Mojave Desert are visible to the south. Zion National
Park can be seen to the east, and the Pine Valley Mountains loom over the city to the north and
northwest. The climate has more in common with the Desert Southwest than the rest of the state,
with scorching hot summers and mild, mostly snowless winters. The city has recently
developed into a major retirement destination.
Economy
Along with its increasing population, the economy of St. George and surrounding areas hasrecovered this past two years.
One of St. George's most significant corporations is SkyWest Airlines, which has its corporateheadquarters in St. George. Wal-Mart has a large distribution center located near St. George,along with Intermountain Health Care a $100 million, 196 Bed, 420,000-square-foot hospital.On May 23, 2013 the New 108 Bed Veterans Home was opened. In July 2013 Family DollarStores opened its new 832,000 square foot distribution center.
A large part of the economy of southwestern Utah comes from tourism. St. George is inproximity to Zion National Park and Bryce Canyon National Park, as well as several state parksand recreational areas. It is a little less than an hour drive from the Tony award winning UtahShakespearean Festival. Golf also plays a large part in the city's tourism industry. St. Georgeoffers one of the highest number of golf courses per capita in the country. Special events such asthe St. George Marathon and the Huntsman Senior Games draw thousands to St. George eachyear (Part of the Huntsman Senior Games take place on the subject Property). The St. GeorgeMarathon is currently the 13th largest marathon in the country.
Transportation
The city is on the Interstate 15 corridor, 125 miles (201 km) south of the western terminus ofInterstate 70. It has access to the Interstate 10 and Interstate 40 corridors via U.S. Route 93,120 miles (190 km) southwest.
St. George does not have access to any rail service. The Union Pacific line between Salt LakeCity and Las Vegas is about 60 miles (97 km) north of the city. Community growth has led toconstruction of a new regional airport, as well as a beltway through the much of the urban area.The new airport replaced the St. George Municipal Airport, which was insufficient and had nocapacity for expansion or accommodation of larger aircraft. The $175 million plans airportincludes a single runway capable of accommodating regional jets as well as other largercommercial jet aircraft. The airport was opened 2011.
Washington County has experienced steady to rapid growth over the past 20 years. The growth
has created the demand for housing and commercial services. Demand for all property type is
moderate to strong. The economic base of the area is expected to continue to grow due to the
expansion of Dixie College, the net in-migration of baby boomers and the climate in the area.
• The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in May, the lowest since before the
Great
Recession hit in late 2008.
• There were 600 new construction, and 900 new retail jobs created this past 12
months.
• There were 3,000 nonfarm jobs added in June 2017. The Total number of people has
reached 63,800, which is a +4.9% growth rate.
• The average sale price in the county for single-family homes was $347,800 in the 2nd
quarter of 2017, a 4% percent increase from 2016.
• The total number of homes sold through August 2017 was 4,567, a 12.79 percent
increase over 2016.
• There were 1,251 building permits issued for single-family homes in St. George
through August 2017, up from 928 in August 2016.
Despite pressures of the health care overhaul, the government shutdown, turmoil in the
Middle East and various other outside influences, the Washington County economy kept
humming along in 2016, buoyed by the enthusiastic return of the construction industry, an
influx of new commercial ventures and an improving job market.
Utah is recovering faster than other states and starting to attract immigrants again.
Utah’s Population: 2016 – 3,051,217 2010 – 2,763,888 10.4% increase
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City. The approved Master Plan includes multiple land uses segmented into specific Planning Areas ranging from low density single family developments, between 4 and 8 units per acre to high density multi-family developments at up to 15 units per acre and a commercial mixed use component situated within The Lakes Master Planned Community to provide convenient commercial retail within walking distance. The City has agreed to allow for the legal formation of Planning Areas, through the Minor Subdivision Process outlined in Utah State Statute, that are intended to provide individual builders with the opportunity to process the necessary project entitlements that are consistent with the City’s General Plan and create a conforming land use approval consistent with the Master Plan entitled through the Development Agreement.
Land Use Master Plan
The Lakes at St. George St. George 730 LLC
October 25, 2017
8367 West Flamingo Road, Suite 100 Tel: (702) 232-5799
Las Vegas, NV 89147 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
The Lakes at St. George –Development Status Summary
The following is a brief summary of the development status as it relates to Entitlements,
Developer obligations and work remaining.
Entitlements
1. General Plan Amendment: COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Approved by City Council, October 5, 2006’ creating mixed land use.
➢ Property is currently zoned R1-10.
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Conforming Zone change approval required for Medium and High
Density zoning in accordance with the General Plan
• Work Remaining: NONE
2. Development Agreement: COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Approved by City Council on January 9, 2014
➢ Hillside development restrictions addressed.
➢ Density Cap of 3,196 units approved
➢ Aggregated Open Space approved
➢ Parks Concept Plans approved
➢ Record of Survey (ROS) approved
3. Water Agreement: COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Approved
➢ Provides for $391,421 credit value to Developer for water infrastructure
fees.
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Convey Deed Title to Water Rights – Complete
• City Obligations:
➢ Credit Value Certificate for $391,431.20 - received.
➢ Credit to be used to offset City reclaimed water impact fees, charges or
assessments.
• Work Remaining:
➢ None.
4. Power Agreement: COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Approved
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Developer payment of $250,000 for future power distribution system –
Plantations Dr. North of Aliente Dr. - Complete
The Lakes at St. George St. George 730 LLC
October 25, 2017
8367 West Flamingo Road, Suite 100 Tel: (702) 232-5799
Las Vegas, NV 89147 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
➢ Developer to provide Substation Warrantee Deeds for north and south
substation sites – Complete.
➢ Grant Power Easement to City – Complete
➢ Provide temporary access to Substations Sites – Complete.
• City Obligations:
➢ Remove Existing Substation from PA 3 – Complete
➢ Remove Existing Overhead Power on PA-3. – Pending installation of
underground power service in Phase 2
➢ Remove Overhead Power on Plantations Dr. South of Aliente Dr. –
Complete
➢ Convey Deed Title for Existing Substation to Developer- Complete
➢ Vacate Existing Power Easement- Complete
➢ Construct Masonry Screen Wall in conformance with Master Plan Wall
Standards along property line adjacent to the Development.- Future
• Work Remaining:
➢ City to re-convey north substation site once alternate site is obtained.
➢ City to Construct Masonry Screen Wall in conformance with Master Plan
Wall Standards along property line adjacent to the Development.
➢ City to remove existing “old” wooden power transmission poles on PA-3
5. Zoning Action
• Approval Status:
➢ R1-10 Zoning with mixed use Master Plan overlay- approved.
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Zone Change Action required for all remaining PA’s other than R1-10
zone Planning Areas.
• Work Remaining:
➢ Zone Change applications prior to Platt approvals for remaining PA’s
other than R1-10
6. Mapping: Record Of Survey (ROS)
• Approval Status:
➢ ROS #1 –Approved.
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Public Right of Way Dedications for Plantations Dr., Lago Vista – Phase
1 and Aliente Dr.- Approved
• Work Remaining:
➢ Record ROS #1 and associated Public Street ROW’s dedications -
Complete
➢ ROS#2- Submit for approval.
➢ ROS #3 – Submit for approval.
➢ Secondary Developers (Builders) to file subdivision plats.
➢ PA-14 & PA-16- Platting for Finished Lot sales – Pending City approval
Engineering
1. Master Utility Plan: Phase 1 - COMPLETE
• Approvals: None Required – Supports detailed Design approvals
• Developer Obligations: None
• Work Remaining: None
The Lakes at St. George St. George 730 LLC
October 25, 2017
8367 West Flamingo Road, Suite 100 Tel: (702) 232-5799
Las Vegas, NV 89147 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
➢ Off-site Reclaimed Water Pipeline Design.
➢ Phase 2 & 3 Off-Site Sewer extension
2. Master Conceptual Hydrology Study: COMPLETE
• Approvals: None required – Supports detailed Design approvals
• Developer Obligations: None
• Work Remaining: None
3. Master Traffic Impact Study: COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Approved
➢ Phase 1 Traffic Study Update – Approved
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Traffic Mitigation Measures as outlined in the City Traffic Engineers
letter dated September 26, 2006 and as modified in the Development
Agreement.
• Work Remaining:
➢ Traffic Study for each PA for Zone Change approval(s).
➢ Amend Study as required by City when needed to support PA Zoning
Action(s).
➢ Engineers cost estimate for Master Traffic Study Mitigation Measures.
4. Conceptual Master Grading Plan: PHASE 1 COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Phases 1 Mass Grading Plan – Approved
➢ Geotechnical study - Complete
• Work Remaining:
➢ Phase 2 & 3 as needed
5. Conceptual PA Density Studies: COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ None required – Supports overall PA density and marketing
• Work Remaining:
➢ None
6. Infrastructure Engineering: PHASE 1 COMPLETE
• Approval Status:
➢ Plantations Dr. Phase I Design- Complete pending JUC approval
➢ Lago Vista Dr. Phase I Design –Complete pending JUC approval
➢ Sentiere Dr. Design - Complete pending JUC approval
• Developer Obligations:
➢ Design and Construct Public Street & Utility Improvements as needed to
support the development.
• Work Remaining:
➢ Phase 2 & 3 Design approval
7. PA-14 Finished Lot Development
• Approval Status:
➢ Hillside Review – Approved
The Lakes at St. George St. George 730 LLC
October 25, 2017
8367 West Flamingo Road, Suite 100 Tel: (702) 232-5799
Las Vegas, NV 89147 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
• Work remaining:
➢ Preliminary Plat Submittal and approval – Pending
City review & approval
➢ Final Plat approval.
8. PA-16 Finished Lot Development
• Approval Status:
➢ Hillside Review – Approved
➢ Preliminary Plat Submittal and approval – Pending
➢ City review & approval
➢ Final Plat approval
9. PA-15 Finished Lot Development – Grading only.
• Approval Status:
➢ Hillside Review – Approved.
• Work remaining:
➢ Preliminary Plat Submittal and approval
City Council approved – Grading only
➢ Final Plat Submittal approval
Construction Status
1. Off-site Infrastructure:
• Water reservoir and service are complete and funded through City SID.
• Sanitary Sewer to serve Phase 1complete and funded through City SID.
• Power – Overhead transmission facility and south substation complete.
• Roads – Plantations Dr. Phase 1 - Complete at Sun Brook.
Legal
1. Builder Land Purchase Agreement
• Master Agreement - Complete
• PA-14 – S&S Homes
➢ S&S Homes LOI – Executed
➢ Finished Lot Purchase Agreement – Complete pending final engineering.
• PA-16 – Ence Homes
➢ Ence Homes LOI – Executed
➢ Finished Lot Purchase Agreement – Complete pending final engineering.
2. Development Declarations
• Complete
3. Master Plan CC&R’s
• Complete
Marketing & Advertising 1. Marketing Analysis & Absorption Study Update– Complete
Architectural 1. Project Architectural Theme -Establishing parks and open space, and community entry
conceptual designs. – COMPLETE
2. Architectural Design Guidelines – Incomplete
3. Parks & Open Space- Concept plans complete and approved by City Parks & Leisure.
Land Use Density
General Plan Approved Residential Units Unit/Ac % Units
Low Density (182.5 Acres) 638 3.50 20.0% Medium Density (229.3 Acres) 1705 7.44 53.3% High Density (50 Acres) 579 12.33 18.1% Commercial/ Mixed Use(27.5 Acres) 274 10 6.0% Open Space (204.5 Acres) Roads (39.9 Acres) Totals (730.7 Acres) 3196
Avg. Gross Density 4.37
Parks & Open Space –
These uses together with over 200 acres of hiking trails through natural canyons and a 20 acre community park, make The Lakes at St. George and ideal community master planned to meet the needs of its residents. Each Builder will have unique development opportunities by taking advantage of the aggregated Open Space within the Master Plan through and Open Space Bank concept that permits individual builders to maximize use of the developable property and its associated land use without dedication of additional acreage for open space within the specific Planning Areas.
The Property’s natural canyons and slopes have been protected in the approved Master Plan for future dedication to the City as Open space, Community Parks and Trails, and access to BLM land for hiking and climbing. By doing so, the Developers have mitigated virtually all slope protection through advance review and approvals by the City’s Hillside Ordinance Review Committee. This has resulted in the creation of Planning Areas essentially free from Hillside Ordinance slope mitigation, freeing up the individual builders to develop each Planning Area in accordance with the designated land uses.
Individual Builders may be exempt from paying the City Parks and Trail Impact fees required for residential development and will enjoy the market advantage of being a part of Lakes Master Plan and its public and private Community Parks and Trails system. The Developer , together with the City, will plan, design and construct all Master Plan parks and trails on pace with the
residential development within the Master Plan to ensure future residents can take immediate advantage and use of all Master Planned amenities.
Park & Open Space Plan
Road & Utility Infrastructure -
The Development of all principle minor and major collector and arterial roadways will be the responsibility of the Developer. This, together with all off-site traffic mitigation measures, frees up individual builders from the pitfalls of any unknown or unforeseen hidden development costs and ensures all Planning Areas will have the required finished access improvements to for uninterrupted marketing and sales accessibility. All Master Plan roads and utilities have received design approval from the City supporting the right of way dedications and securing access and future service throughout the Lakes Master Plan.
Hydrology and drainage considerations have been addressed by the Developer to reduce if not eliminate any on-site drainage retention areas within the Builder Planning areas. By taking advantage of the aggregated open space and utilizing lakes and water features for storm drainage retention and discharging into existing natural washes, the Developer has accounted for all developed drainage flows from the Builder Planning Areas.
Marketing & Sales –
In 2008, the Robert Charles Lessor Company (RCLco) completed a Marketing Analysis and Absorption Study to ensure all builders within the Lakes Master Plan are competitively positioned to take advantage of the Lakes Master Plan Absorption Model. RCLco has evaluated the Lakes Master Plan accounting for the natural beauty of the site, distant views and planned amenities’ and given the property an A- rating and concluding: “The Lakes at St. George is an ideal site for the development of a primary-home community, and is additionally well suited to serve as a value-oriented alternative to higher-end second home development MPCs in St. George. While a number of upscale golf communities have been developed in and around St. George in recent years, there is a market void for well executed MPC’s targeting primary residents of St. George. The Site’s adjacency to protected BLM land, in conjunction with a program of open space and view lakes, will create an open space and outdoor recreation-focused MPC that competes successfully for both primary and second home market segments.”
RCLco identified the following project strengths through is extensive research and comparison of the Lakes at St. George with other MPC’s in the area:
1. Convenient in-town regional location relative to recent planned MPC’s 2. Large, contiguous parcel with gently rolling topography and natural landforms 3. Attractive panoramic views from elevated western portions of the site 4. Good elementary school and new intermediate school
Through an exclusive Absorption Model and Optimization Analysis, RCLco has created a financial development program through the development of product type and price point matrix for each Planning Area to ensure all Builders at the Lakes at St. George Master Plan are positioned to take advantage of the Master Plan Absorption Model.
A more recent market study by Team Power Marketing was completed to identify perceived barriers that have prevented national builders from entering the St. George Market and provide current homebuyer demographic analysis and market research to overcome these barriers.
Prior barriers to national builder entry into St. George Market:
1. No Commercial Airport – St George now has a regional airport with commercial airline connecting services.
2. No large tracts of land – If you are a large high production builder going into a small city you need land out in front along with good growth potential. It just doesn’t make sense to set up shop, hire good subs only to have to leave the market after a single model group is sold. The Lakes property provides for a future inventory of land.
3. Local politics hamper the entitlement process - With a politically tight entitlementprocess and with most developed lots being metered out by a small few developers it’stough to get started here. The Lakes Master Plan is fully entitled and ready fordevelopment.
4. Sales volumes- The sales to local families made up a higher percentage of new home salesyears 10 years ago. Today that number might be 20 to 30% of total sales. There is a healthyratio in the number of homes sold here for its population. The population is growing as isthe employment rate. My interviews with agents in the top selling new home builder officesrevealed that 65% to 95% of the buyers were not locals.
5. Unknown Market- The traffic flow to the St. George area was not nearly as capable ofsustaining an MP like the Lakes as it is now. St George was not always as well-known atourist destination as it has become in the most recent years. The State Tourism Dept.started spending millions more dollars in major western cities (including Las Vegas thisyear).
Why “The Lakes”? Why now?
1. Location- “The Lakes” Master Plan was a choice back when I evaluated St George before.Many of St George’s most scenic areas including rolling terrain, and highest valuedproperties are on the west side of I-15. The MPs with the highest number of second homeand retirement buyers are located west of I-15. Access to the “The Lakes” is within minutesof from I-15 is approximately a 5 minutes from Snow Canyon the most popular state park inSouthern Utah. One of Utah’s best public golf courses is wrapped by the mature SunbrookMaster Plan which is contiguous to “The Lakes” property. There is very little of “St George”(within city limits) land left to develop. The bordering townships for the most part arevirtually unknown “by name” outside of Utah. St. George is the strongest brand name townor city in Southern Utah.
2. Property Entitlements - The major hurdles to develop “The Lakes” are cleared. These 730acres are entitled with water committed. A number of major builders can build hereassuredly for at least five to seven years as 3196 residences are approved to be built hereunder the city’s general plan.
“The Lakes” Product Segmentation and Absorption: Three market segments dominate new
home sales
1. Second Home Buyers - The current sales statistics on new product sold in the St Georgemarket do not reflect the large segment of buyers who would rather purchase a more
exciting Master Plan Community. The master plan communities in place that feature a golfcourse and target the 50 plus market dominate the west side of St George. Sun River,Bloomington, and Sunbrook to name a few are over 10 years old and almost totally ignorethe younger 20s to late 40s market. These age groups target vacation communities that arenot “retiree” golf centered community and want a more active biking and hiking centeredlife style.
2. Active Adult – There is a large influx of retires from northern Utah and California whodon’t necessarily want to live on or play on a golf course. They want to hike, fish or justrelax near an active stream. St George as an ideal “home plate” for retires to takeadvantage of nearby Color Country.
3. First time and move up Home Buyers – More affluent local young couples and singles don’tnecessarily want to live in the heart of a traditional “baby carriage” neighborhood anddesire to live in a community with canyons and trails for hiking, climbing and biking.
Community Theme – The Projects community theme concept takes advantage of the natural
trails and canyons as undisturbed open space linked to neighborhood and community parks
that provide active and passive uses anchored by lakes and interconnecting streams. Each
Planning Area has been carefully positioned to provide access to all the projects passive and
active open space.
Southern UtahGood News Housing ReportWashington County Utah
“Doing good Deeds for over 60 years”
SEPTEMBER
139
154
206
221
198
158161 162
140
101
145
181
157
137152
143151
158
130
172 175
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
LOT SALES BY MONTH
2017 1,539
2016 1,802
1,5
391,8
02
1,5
21
1,4
08
1,6
52
1,1
00
65
0
548
469633
Pro
jecte
d, 2
,05
2
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
LOT SALES BY YEAR
117103
169 172
156
207
134
193
133
99
143
126 121
136 137 137
166
141135
146
111
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
PERMITS BY MONTH
2017 1,384
2016 1,598
1,3
841,5
98
1,5
37
1,2
991,5
68
1,1
56
717
70
1
47
458
1
Pro
jecte
d, 1
,84
5
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
PERMITS BY YEAR
79
121
145
116
146 146
129
154
10278 81
131 128116 120
107
127114
102112
134
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NEW DWELLINGS BY MONTH
2017 1,138
2016 1,350
79
121 145 116 146 146 129154
102
399
456
663
538
657 661
584
609
492
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NEW V. TOTAL DWELLINGS
NEW DWELLINGS 1,138
TOTAL DWELLINGS 5,059
20%
22% 22%22%
25%
21%27% 22%
22%
399
456
663
538
657 661
584609
492
349369
549
511
558610
519 584 503482 489
540
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
DWELLINGS BY MONTH
2017 5,059
2016 6,063
5,0
596,0
63
5,4
94
4,8
99
5,0
34
3,9
70
3,8
99
3,6
52
3,2
77
2,8
56
Pro
jecte
d, 6,7
45
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
DWELLINGS BY YEAR
123 123
225
130
50
240
134
103
29
11454
151
111
92
250
107
137
79 64
151
92
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
PLATTED LOTS BY MONTH
2017 1,157
2016 1,402
583
642
907
793
885865
763
827
658
492
539
771713 726
793
690
767
689
643
689
747
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
ALL SALES BY MONTH
2017 6,923
2016 8,259
6,9
238
,25
9
7,2
74
6,5
01
6,9
64
5,3
35
4,7
34
4,3
81
3,9
08
3,7
58
Pro
jecte
d, 9
,23
0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
ALL SALES BY YEAR
492
140
16 10
503
158
217
DWELLINGS LOTS ACREAGE COMMERCIAL
ALL PRODUCT BY MONTH 2017 vs. 2016
2017 658
2016 689
5,059
1,539
190 135
4,552
1,325
190 113
Dwellings Lots Acreage Commercial
ALL PRODUCT BY YEAR 2017 V. 2016
2017 6,923
2016 6,180
333
1,035
379
350
1,123
394
296
555
310
1,210
902
332
808
248
328
1,013
365
211
518
279
1,087
899
BLOOMINGTON CC
BLOOMINGTON HILLS
EAST COUNTY
EAST ST. GEORGE
HURRICANE
IVINS
SANTA CLARA
ST. GEORGE VALLEY
U-18
WASHINGTON CITY
WEST ST. GEORGE
ALL AREAS BY YEAR
2016
2017
60
15
25
15
21
1814 15
1922 22
33
18
26
19
13
2629
2125
17
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NOTICES OF DEFAULT
2017 202
2016 271
*HOA liens
79
1511
58
42
5 4
12
19
10
11
97 7
15
107 8 8
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
TRUSTEE DEEDS
2017 106
2016 123
Page 1
ST. GEORGE / MESQUITE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Third Quarter 2017
Figure 1: St. George MSA Job Growth and Total Employment
Figure 2: St. George MSA Unemployment Trend
Figure 3: St. George MSA Job Growth by Sector
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Nationally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a drop of -33,000 jobs in September, primarily in the retail services sectors such as food, beverage etc. This was the first loss experienced in seven years. The primary driver of these job losses were a result of hurricane’s Irma and Harvey, therefore the loss should be fairly short lived and are expected to bounce back in the coming months.
Job growth in the St. George market remains healthy and is not expected to see any major changes in the near future. According to the most recent figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the St. George CBSA has added a total of 3,000 new jobs over the past twelve months ending August 2017. While this total is down from 4,200 jobs that were created as of August 2016 (annually), the local economy remains steady and has actually gained a little momentum the last couple months. With the demographic make-up of the St. George market, local employers are finding it difficult to fill open positions with qualified employees, specifically those that require a higher education. This is making it difficult for many companies to expand operations. The majority of new job growth is occurring in the travel and retail sectors which are being filled by college students and those with lower education, and thus resulting in lower wages. The total number of people employed in the St. George CBSA has increased +4.9% compared to last year for a total of 64,600.
Despite the slight increase in the unemployment rate since the first of the year, it remains below the national rate of 4.2% and also below what is considered to be “fully employed” (at 4.5%). As of August 2017, the unemployment rate is 3.7%, up from 3.5% last year.
While not every sector has experienced a net increase in jobs as of August, none of the sectors are losing jobs, which is a positive sign. The market is currently being led by Retail Trade jobs, which has created 800 jobs over the past year, up 100 jobs from last year at this time. Construction, Nat. Resources & Mining is the next largest sector with the addition of 600 jobs, down from 800 last year. The Leisure & Hospitality Services sector is growing with the addition of 500 jobs, up from 200 recorded last year. Despite fewer jobs in most of the remaining sectors compared to last year, the market continues to create jobs in many different sectors, creating a more diversified economy, which is a healthy trend.
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Annual Non-Farm Jobs Total Employed (Non-Farm)
EmployedJobs
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
Civilian Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
3.7%
4.2%
CONSTNAT RESMINING
MANUFWHSLTrade
RetailTrade
TRANS &Utilities
INFO FIREBusinessServices
EDHealth
Services
Leisure& Hosp.Services
OtherServices
FederalGovt
StateGovt
LocalGovt
Aug-16 800 200 200 700 500 100 0 400 700 200 0 0 100 300
Aug-17 600 100 0 800 200 0 100 100 300 500 100 0 100 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Aug-16 Aug-17
St. George / Mesquite Executive Summary
Page 2
Third Quarter 2017
Figure 4: Annual New Home Starts & Closings – Att/Det
Figure 5: St. George Market Area Annual Starts by Price Range – Att/Det
Figure 6: St. George New Home Inventory – Att/Det
HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW While new home starts cooled off slightly during the third quarter, the market remains healthy. According to Metrostudy’s quarterly lot-by-lot survey, builders in the St. George market started 478 new homes during the third quarter of 2017, which is +5% higher than 3Q16, however decreased -13% from last quarter. New home closings for the quarter decreased -5% compared to 3Q16 for a total of 409. Annual starts are up +5% compared to 3Q16 for a total of 1,793, the highest level since prior to the recession. Annual closings reached 1,723 as of September, which is a +13% increase compared to last year at this time. There were 407 single-family detached homes started during the 3rd quarter, an -18% decrease from last quarter and unchanged compared to 3Q16. Annual starts are up +8% compared to last year for a total of 1,601. Annual new home closings totaled 1,548, which is a +19% increase over last year. Annual new homes starts for attached homes/units decreased -14% compared to last year to 192, and closings decreased -22% for a total of 175. The Mesquite market area started 91 new homes during the 3rd quarter of 2017 which is up +117% from the 42 recorded during 3Q16, and up from 69 recorded last quarter. Annual new home starts totaled 332 as of September which is up +29% compared to last year. Quarterly closings totaled 74 during 3Q17, up +14% from the 65 closings in 3Q16 and increased +25% from last quarter. Annual closings totaled 256, which is a +2% increase compared to the pace last year at this time. New home starts from $400,000-$600,000 are increasing faster than any other price segment in the market, up +26% compared to last year at this time and now account for 17% of total market share. Builders continue to find it difficult to produce homes under $250,000 as material and labor costs rise. Production in this segment has decreased -14% compared to last year at this time and is also 17% market share, however decreasing. The median price for a new detached home in the St. George market is now $348,200, which has increased +4% from last year, however decreased -.5% from last quarter. Due to the increased starts pace of attached homes, the median price for a new attached home/unit increased +28% over last year and up +3% from last quarter to $236,500. The median new home price in Mesquite is currently $263,500 which is up +10% from last year and +1% above last quarter.
NEW HOME INVENTORY As production rises, we expect to see inventory
MOS
1,793
332
1,723
2560
200
400600
8001,000
1,2001,400
1,6001,800
2,0002,200
2,400
3Q051Q06
3Q061Q07
3Q071Q08
3Q081Q09
3Q091Q10
3Q101Q11
3Q111Q12
3Q121Q13
3Q131Q14
3Q141Q15
3Q151Q16
3Q161Q17
3Q17
St. George Starts Mesquite StartsSt. George Closings Mesquite Closings
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000+
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
1.2
5.2
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,300
3Q051Q06
3Q061Q07
3Q071Q08
3Q081Q09
3Q091Q10
3Q101Q11
3Q111Q12
3Q121Q13
3Q131Q14
3Q141Q15
3Q151Q16
3Q161Q17
3Q170.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant FV MOS U/C MOS
St. George / Mesquite Executive Summary
Page 3
Third Quarter 2017
Figure 7: Mesquite New Home Inventory – Att/Det
Figure 8: St. George Vacant Developed Lot Inventory / MOS
Figure 9: Mesquite Vacant Developed Lot Inventory – Att/Det
increase as well. Currently, total new home inventory in the St. George market sits at 948, which is an +8% increase compared to 3Q16 and +8% above last quarter. At the current pace of absorption this translates to a 6.6 month supply, down from 6.9 months recorded last year at this time. Of this total, 741 homes are under construction, up +17% compared to last year and currently is a 5.2 month supply, well within equilibrium. However, finished vacant inventory has decreased -21% compared to 3Q16 and -6% lower than last quarter, for a supply of 1.2 months. Single-family detached home inventory sits at 6.3 months with a low 1.2 month supply of finished vacant homes. Attached inventory is currently 8.8 months, with a low 1.1 month supply of finished vacant units. New detached inventory in Mesquite totaled 156, which increased +79% from last year and +11% from last quarter. This is currently a 7.4 month supply, up from 4.8 months recorded last year. However, finished vacant inventory is a low .5 months. Attached inventory sits at 203 homes/units, a 1,218.0 month supply, of which 193 are finished and vacant units.
LOT INVENTORY Annual lot deliveries in St. George have increased +42% compared to last year for a total of 1,875. However, despite the increase in deliveries there are specific segments within the market that are below equilibrium. There is currently a 33.8 month supply of detached single-family lots on the ground, down from 36.3 months recorded in 3Q16. However, lot inventory for homes priced from $200,000 to $400,000 is well within equilibrium at 20 months. Lot inventory for homes above $500,000 is a high 64.0 months. Vacant developed lot inventory in Mesquite decreased -8% from last year to a total of 1,335, which is a 48.3 month supply, down from 67.4 months in 3Q16.
CONCLUSIONS As we enter into the final stretch of the year, the St. George market is expected to have the strongest year on record since the recession, and is projected to remain steady for the near future. Builders will continue to deal with increasing prices; however lower priced entry-level product is needed in the market.
MOS
MOS
MOS
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing information, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the feasibility of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices strategically located in major metropolitan areas throughout the country.
Eric Allen, Regional Director – Utah/Idaho [email protected]
9069 S. 1300 W. Ste. B. – W. Jordan, Utah 84088 801.571.7700 x-5971
9.6
5.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
3Q051Q06
3Q061Q07
3Q071Q08
3Q081Q09
3Q091Q10
3Q101Q11
3Q111Q12
3Q121Q13
3Q131Q14
3Q141Q15
3Q151Q16
3Q161Q17
3Q170.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
27.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant FV MOS U/C MOS
4,512
344
33.8
21.55001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
1Q063Q06
1Q073Q07
1Q083Q08
1Q093Q09
1Q103Q10
1Q113Q11
1Q123Q12
1Q133Q13
1Q143Q14
1Q153Q15
1Q163Q16
1Q173Q17
0.024.048.072.096.0120.0144.0168.0192.0216.0240.0264.0288.0312.0
Detached AttachedDet MOS Att MOS
1,181
154
43.9
205.3
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
3Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q17
0.048.0
96.0144.0192.0
240.0288.0336.0
384.0432.0480.0
528.0576.0
Detached AttachedDet MOS Att MOS
July 2017
15© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Annual Non-Farm Jobs Total Employed (Non-Farm)
EmployedJobs
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George CBSAEmployment Trend - Net Increase of 3,000 in last 12 months.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total Employed +4.9%
PAGE 29
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George CBSAUnemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
PAGE 30
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
Civilian Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
3.3%
4.3%
July 2017
16© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George CBSAEmployment by Sector – June 2016 vs. June 2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
PAGE 31
CONSTNAT RESMINING
MANUFWHSLTrade
RetailTrade
TRANS &Utilities
INFO FIREBusinessServices
EDHealth
Services
Leisure& Hosp.Services
OtherServices
FederalGovt
StateGovt
LocalGovt
Jun-16 800 100 200 700 400 200 0 400 1,000 300 0 0 100 -100
Jun-17 600 100 0 900 200 0 100 200 300 400 100 0 100 100
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jun-16 Jun-17
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St. George Market Area
New Home Activity2Q 2017
PAGE 32
July 2017
17© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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Total Count Active Subdivisions 281 New Active-past year 29 projects Built Out-past year 7 projects
Furnished Model Homes 37 / 0.3 mos Finished Vacant Homes 182 / 1.3 mos Homes Under Construction 679 / 4.7 mos Vacant Developed Lots 4,840 / 32.5 mos Future Subdivisions 136 Future Lots 42,305 / 284.7 mos
St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Att/Det
www.metrostudy.com
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,600
2Q99
2Q00
2Q01
2Q02
2Q03
2Q04
2Q05
2Q06
2Q07
2Q08
2Q09
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
2Q13
2Q14
2Q15
2Q16
2Q17
Annual Starts Annual Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Att/Det
483
1,785
1,740
612
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vs 2Q16 1Q17Starts- +8% +4%Closings- +13% +3%
YTDA/S 958 +6%A/C 937 +25%
July 2017
18© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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364
147 166
2
312
772
283
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
St. G
eorg
e
Was
hingt
on
Hurric
ane
Ivins
Sant
a Clar
a
La Ve
rkin
Mesqu
ite
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts / Closings by City – 2Q14-2Q17 – Att/Det
PAGE 35
Percentage ChangeA +5%Q +2%
A -12%Q +3%
A -9%Q +1%
A +82%Q +10%
A +127%Q +211%
A +100%Q +100%
A +17%Q -4%
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area% Change in Ann. Starts & Closings – Att/Det
PAGE 36
82%
-9%
17%
100%
127%
5%
-12%
7%
126%
3%
17%
0%
126%
6%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin Mesquite
Ann. Starts Ann. Closings
July 2017
19© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaTop Subdivisions Ranked by Annual Starts – Att/Det
PAGE 37
SubdivisionName/RankActiveQuarter City
LotSizeRange
AnnualStarts
Ann.Start%Change
2Q17QuarterStarts
AnnualClosings
2Q17QuarterClosings
FinishedVacant
UnderConst.
HomeInv.MOS
VDLInv
VDLMOS
FutureLots
1) DixieSprings 3Q06 Hurricane 9,775‐11,000 $175 ‐ $550 155 7% 29 156 32 26 44 5.5 701 54.3 02) SunRiverSt.George 1Q05 St.George 3,150‐8,000 $240 ‐ $490 96 10% 27 87 26 12 34 6.3 102 12.8 3713) HawthornEstates 4Q15 St.George 8,500‐10,450 $238 ‐ $346 48 100% 17 46 10 2 10 3.4 5 1.3 04) SiennaHills/Casitas 1Q15 Washington 1,625‐2,000 $250 ‐ $390 47 176% 17 32 7 1 20 8.3 45 11.5 245) DesertCanyons/DesertCrest 3Q15 St.George 7,350‐7,700 $230 ‐ $287 39 1200% 16 33 13 2 6 3.3 25 7.7 246) OakwoodEstates 2Q15 St.George 9,000‐10,000 $274 ‐ $639 37 19% 10 36 6 2 7 3.3 16 5.2 07) BlackhawkTownhomes 1Q17 SantaClara 1,350 $225 ‐ $230 36 360% 20 1 1 3 32 420.0 3 1.0 328) SugarPlum 3Q15 Washington 8,000‐9,200 $250 ‐ $316 35 46% 16 31 9 7 6 5.4 18 6.2 1459) Riverstone 4Q13 St.George 7,200‐8,800 $250 ‐ $574 34 3% 9 35 8 2 6 3.1 7 2.5 010) ParadiseVillageatZion 2Q14 SantaClara 2,925‐3,500 $336 ‐ $1,580 34 13% 8 25 5 0 23 11.0 24 8.5 011) TuscanyatCliffrose 3Q07 SantaClara 625 $160 ‐ $208 32 45% 0 54 8 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4012) BrioSF 3Q15 Washington 7,000‐8,800 $265 ‐ $438 32 ‐6% 13 40 7 2 11 6.6 36 13.5 43713) Fieldstone 1Q15 St.George 11,550 $400 ‐ $600 31 ‐9% 8 34 14 4 12 5.7 12 4.7 014) IvyWood 2Q12 Hurricane 4,750 $155 ‐ $330 28 ‐10% 7 37 11 1 8 2.9 9 3.9 015) DesertCanyons/DesertPlateau 3Q14 St.George 8,250‐12,500 $299 ‐ $460 26 37% 8 20 9 1 12 8.4 27 12.5 2916) DesertCanyons/DesertRidge 1Q16 St.George 5,950‐6,650 $223 ‐ $287 26 767% 14 15 6 0 14 11.2 13 6.0 017) MeadowValleyFarms 3Q12 St.George 18,000‐31,725 $400 ‐ $999 24 50% 4 22 9 2 10 6.6 32 16.0 018) SkyRidgeEstates 1Q05 Hurricane 8,500‐11,250 $206 ‐ $345 23 64% 6 25 8 0 6 2.9 0 0.0 1619) MillcreekSpringsTownhomes 1Q07 Washington 875 $143 ‐ $149 23 15% 0 23 3 0 4 2.1 34 17.7 020) DesertCanyons/DesertRim 3Q15 St.George 10,350‐12,000 $223 ‐ $283 22 340% 4 19 9 2 2 2.5 2 1.1 0
TOTALS/AVERAGES $140 ‐ $1,580 828 - 233 771 201 69 267 25.9 1,111 9.3 1,118
MarketShare 46% ‐ 42% 44% 42% 38% 39% ‐ 23% ‐ 3%
PriceRange
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050
100150200250300350400450500550600650
Qtr. Starts Qtr. Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaQuarterly New Home Starts & Closings – Detached
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498
446
vs 2Q16 1Q17Starts- +18% +41%Closings- +25% +19%
July 2017
20© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Annual Starts Annual Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Detached
PAGE 39
1,603
1,557
vs 2Q16 1Q17Starts- +10% +5%Closings- +20% +6%
443
1,977
534
1,955YTD
A/S 851 +11%A/C 820 +31%
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0102030405060708090
100110
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000+
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Qtr. Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaQuarterly Starts / Closings by Price Range – Detached
PAGE 40
7-30%
Qtr. Percent Change
50 +16%
106+6%
86+2.%
66+32%
72 +14% 67
+10%
30+100%
July 2017
21© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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0
50
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300
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400
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000+
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Ann. Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts / Closings by Price Range – Detached
PAGE 41
29-36%
Ann. Percent Change
157-15%
346+2%
266+20%
210+20%
241+4% 221
+31%
104+51%
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area% Change in Ann. Starts & Closings by Price Range – Detached
PAGE 42
51%
20%
2%
31%
4%
20%
-36%
-15%
16%
34%
-4%-3%
48%
21%
30%
6%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000+
Ann. Starts Ann. Closings
July 2017
22© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Annual Starts Annual Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Attached
PAGE 43
182
183
vs 2Q16 1Q17Starts- -10% -3%Closings- -25% -15%
YTDA/S 107 ‐22%A/C 117 ‐7%
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0102030405060708090
$0-$149 $150-$174
$175-$199
$200-$224
$225-$249
$250-$274
$275-$299
$300 +
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Ann. Starts
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual Closings / Starts by Price Range – Attached
PAGE 44
39-51%
Ann. Percent Change
22+120%
37-3%
10-64%
3 -86% 6
-65%
15-29%
52+48%
July 2017
23© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
4Q042Q05
4Q052Q06
4Q062Q07
4Q072Q08
4Q082Q09
4Q092Q10
4Q102Q11
4Q112Q12
4Q122Q13
4Q132Q14
4Q142Q15
4Q152Q16
4Q162Q17
Thousands
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
D etached M edian P rice A ttached M edian P rice M tg. Int . R ate
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaMedian New Home Price – Att/Det
PAGE 45
Attached$226,600
+32% 2Q16+9% 1Q17
Detached$347,800
+4% 2Q16+.6% 1Q17
Med. Income$62,838
+27% 2010
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$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
$360
$380
$400
St. George Washington Hurricane Santa Clara Ivins La Verkin
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaMedian New Home Price by City – 2Q14-2Q17 Detached
PAGE 46
A +4%Q +3%
Med. Income$55,215
+16% 2010
A-4%Q -3%
Med. Income$55,832
+8% 2010
A +4%Q +1%
Med. Income$53,923
+10% 2010
A -24%Q +3%
Med. Income$70,551
+18% 2010
A +22%Q +5%
Med. Income$58,293
+22% 2010
A -58%Q +0%
$387,040
$324,500
$300,700
$413,300
$394,100
$242,900
Med. Income$49,382
+13% 2010
July 2017
24© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaNew, Resale & Foreclosure Transactions
PAGE 47
Source: Metrostudy / Property Analysis
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaResidential Mortgage / Cash Transactions
PAGE 48
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Percent Cash TransactionsCashMortgage
Source: Metrostudy / CoreLogic - Deed
July 2017
25© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
Top LendersRanked by # of Loans
PAGE 49
Source: Metrostudy / Property Analysis
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area Top 20 Builders – Ranked by Annual Deed Closings – Att/Det
PAGE 50
Source: Metrostudy / CoreLogic - Deed
Builder
2Q17Annual Closings
Ann. % ChangeClosings
Avg. ClosingPrice
% Change
PriceSALISBURY HOMES 174 19% $291,241 -1%ENCE HOMES 113 -10% $312,088 6%SUN RIVER CONSTRUCTION 72 -29% $540,183 1%IVORY HOMES 49 4% $303,165 11%S & S CONSTRUCTION INC (UT) 49 -16% $429,638 17%JACK FISHER HOMES 44 -27% $363,582 -4%PERRY HOMES INC 43 34% $294,716 3%SULLIVAN HOMES UTAH 43 87% $362,615 -33%ROCK TITE CONSTRUCTION COMPANY 29 12% $354,770 3%J TIMO CONSTRUCTION 22 83% $242,708 3%COLE WEST HOMES 21 2100% N/A N/ASANTA CLARA DEV LLC 18 260% $254,335 34%GEMSTONE HOMES INC (UT) 17 55% $258,354 10%HIGH DESERT HOMES INC (UT) 16 33% $420,515 -25%BENZER DEV SOLUTIONS LLC 14 27% $219,352 10%BANGERTER HOMES OF SOUTHERN UTAH 13 -13% $346,498 17%CORAL CANYON BUILDERS LLC 13 -35% $271,694 -3%CLARY LLC 11 1100% N/A N/APREMIER DEVELOPMENT INC (UT) 11 -15% $363,556 -5%ESTANCIA PROJECT DEVELOPMENT LLC 10 -17% $331,026 13%
July 2017
26© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaBuyer Segmentation – Annual Resale Closings
PAGE 51
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ent ry Level Feat ure & Lo cat io n Simp le Lif e
F amily Lif e Elit e A A Ent ry Level
A A F eat ure & Lo cat io n A A Elit e R ent ers
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaBuyer Segmentation – Annual New Home Closings
PAGE 52
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ent ry Level F eat ure & Lo cat io n Simp le Lif e
F amily Lif e Eli t e A A Ent ry Level
A A F eat ure & Lo cat io n A A Elit e R ent ers
July 2017
27© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
St. George Market Area
New Home Inventory2Q 2017
PAGE 53
www.metrostudy.com
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Months of Supply
Units of Inventory
Finished Vacant Under Construction Months of Supply
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
National Housing OverviewHousing Inv. & MOS by Market – Att/Det
PAGE 54
July 2017
28© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached
PAGE 55
6.2
4.6
1.3
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,200
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.01.02.0
3.04.05.06.0
7.08.09.010.0
11.012.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS
2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 597 +13% +13%F/V- 168 -12% -7%
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – by CityNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached
PAGE 56
1.2
4.94.4
4.2 4.1
8.2
4.5
12.0
0.50.01.5 0.91.21.2
020406080
100120140160180200220240260280
St. G
eorg
e
Washing
ton
Hurrica
neIv
ins
Santa
Clara
La Verk
in
Mesqu
ite0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.014.0
Under Construction Finishid Vacant Housing MOS UC MOS FV MOS
July 2017
29© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – St. George CityNew Home Inventory / Months of Supply – Detached
PAGE 57
050
100150200250300350400450500550600
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.01.02.0
3.04.05.06.0
7.08.09.010.0
11.012.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS
•12.7
2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 270 +9% +10%F/V- 76 -1% -23%
•5.8
•4.4
•1.2
www.metrostudy.com
0255075
100125150175200225250275300
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.01.02.0
3.04.05.06.0
7.08.09.010.0
11.012.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – Washington CityNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached
PAGE 58
•6.4
•4.2
•1.5
2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 99 -4% +15%F/V- 36 -28% +90%
July 2017
30© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0102030405060708090
100110120130
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – Hurricane CityNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached
PAGE 59
•5.5
•4.1
•1.2
2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 109 -2% +3%F/V- 33 -11% -6%
•14.1 •23.6
www.metrostudy.com
020406080
100120140160180200220240
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.02.04.0
6.08.010.012.0
14.016.018.020.0
22.024.0
Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – MesquiteNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached
PAGE 60
•6.9
•4.9
•0.5
2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 100 +72% +11%F/V- 11 -35% -35%
July 2017
31© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0102030405060708090
100110
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaUnder Construction Inv. by Price Range / MOS – Detached
PAGE 61
Ann. Percent Change
2Q15-2Q17
•2.6-33%
•2.9-15%
•3.0 -9%
•3.9 +13%
•4.8 +30% •4.8
+8%
•6.1 +14%
•10.3 +49%
www.metrostudy.com
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%
Models Under Construction Finished Vacant FV % of Total Inv.
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaNew Home Inventory / FV % of Total Inv. – Detached
PAGE 62
July 2017
32© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
109
5385
1
76
36
99
270
33
14
0
9
21%24% 23%
10%
0%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Models Under Construction Finished Vacant FV % of Total Inv.
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaNew Home Inventory / FV % of Total Inv. – Detached
PAGE 63
www.metrostudy.com
446
430
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
Quarterly Closings Quarterly Completions
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaQuarterly Completions and Closings – Detached
PAGE 64
Annual Completions – 1,534Annual Closings – 1,557
Difference -23
July 2017
33© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaNew Home Completions by Home Price Range – Detached
PAGE 65
$800 +0%
$500-$79924%
$400-$49915%
$350-$3999%
$300-$34921%
$250-$29928%
$200-$2493%
$0-$1990%
www.metrostudy.com
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaFinished Vacant Inv. by Price Range / MOS – Detached
PAGE 66
Ann. Percent Change
2Q15-2Q17
•1.0-57%
•0.7 -57%
•1.0 -32%
•1.2 -10%
•1.5 +0%
•1.7 -8% •1.6
+45%
•1.7+83%
July 2017
34© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – by CityFinished Vacant Inventory by Price – Detached
PAGE 67
0%
30% 32% 33%
40%
53%
62%
73%
33%30%
39%
30%
16%21%
7%
0%
25%
3%9%
18%16%
30%30%33%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
St. George Washington Hurricane
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – by CityFinished Vacant MOS by Price – Detached
PAGE 68
0.6 0.70.9
1.6
2.5
1.6
0.4 0.5
1.3
1.61.5
1.7
1.3
0.0
1.7
1.4
0.0 0.0
1.0
1.9
1.2
1.7
1.3
12.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
St. George Washington Hurricane
6.0
July 2017
35© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
1.2
0.0
0.9
1.5
1.91.6
1.8
16.5
1.2
0.04.5
0.9
1.9
1.11.41.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50k0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.52Q16 F / V Inv. 2Q17 F / V Inv.2Q16 F / V M OS 2Q17 F / V M OS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area Finished Vacant Inv. / MOS by Lot Size – Detached
PAGE 69
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Attached
PAGE 70
0255075
100125150175200225250275300
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0369121518212427303336
Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS
2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 82 -7% +21%F/V- 14 +40% +0%
•0.9
•5.4
•6.4
July 2017
36© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area New Home Inventory / MOS by Price Range – Attached
PAGE 71
1.6
0.0
1.6
4.44.8
8.0
128.0
1.0
0.00.3
2.4
20.0
2.0
0.00.9
0.00369
1215182124273033
$0-$149 $150-$174
$175-$199
$200-$224
$225-$249
$250-$274
$275-$299
$300 +0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.022.0
Under Construction Finishid Vacant Housing MOS UC MOS FV MOS
www.metrostudy.com
St. George Market Area
Lot Inventory2Q 2017
PAGE 72
July 2017
37© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Months of Supply
Units of Inventory
VDL Inventory Months of Supply
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
National Housing OverviewVacant Developed Lot Inv. & MOS by Market – Att/Det
PAGE 73
www.metrostudy.com
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
024
487296120
144168192216
240264
Starts VDL's MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
Mesquite Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Detached
PAGE 74
1,271
•55.5
VDL’s MOS
vs. 2Q16 1Q17VDL’s- -4% +5% MOS- -17 m +4 m
July 2017
38© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q19
2Q17
Annual Lot Deliveries
Annual Starts
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Ann. Starts – Attached
PAGE 75
172 Ann. Lot Deliveries / -4% vs 2Q16182 Ann. Starts / -10% vs 2Q16
www.metrostudy.com
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.0
24.0
48.0
72.0
96.0
120.0
144.0
168.0
192.0
216.0
Starts VDL's MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Attached
PAGE 76
MOSVDL’s
322
•21.2
vs. 2Q16 2Q17VDL’s- -3% -8%MOS- +1 m -1 m
•250.3•263.6
July 2017
39© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0
30
61
293028
76
34
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
$0-$149 $150-$174
$175-$199
$200-$224
$225-$249
$250-$274
$275-$299
$300 +
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. by New Home Price / MOS – Attached / 2Q15-2Q17
PAGE 77
•12.4-44%
•2.6-100%
•30.0-22%
•13.9 -15%
•64.8 -35%
•49.5-25%
•29.1+93%
•20.8+259%
www.metrostudy.com
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
Annual Lot Deliveries
Annual Starts
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Ann. Starts – Detached
PAGE 78
1,410 Ann. Lot Deliveries / +6% vs 2Q171,603 Ann. Starts / +10% vs 2Q17
July 2017
40© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
309
80
62
1
74
0
127
020406080
100120140160180200220240260280300320340
St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin Mesquite
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaQuarterly Lot Deliveries by City – Detached 2Q16-2Q17
PAGE 79
www.metrostudy.com
0%2%
22%
28%
6%
12%
8%
17%
10%
30%
15%
23%
17%
9%
0%0%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
2!17 Ann. Starts2Q17 Deliveries
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Starts by Home Price Range - Detached
PAGE 80
July 2017
41© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
4%
0% 0% 0%
40%
43%
9%
5%
0%2%
27%
43%
28%
0%0%0%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50k
Ann. Starts Lot Deliveries
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Starts by Lot Size - Detached
PAGE 81
www.metrostudy.com
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
01224364860728496108120132144156168180
Starts VDL's MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVacant Developed Lot Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Detached
PAGE 82
4,518
•33.8
vs. 2Q16 1Q17VDL’s- -4% -.6%MOS- -5 m -2 m
July 2017
42© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,400
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
0.06.012.018.024.030.036.042.048.054.060.066.072.0
Starts VDL's MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaA & B Lots Only - VDL Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Detached
PAGE 83
1,799
•19.6
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaQuarterly Net Change in VDL Inv. – Detached
PAGE 84
-25
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
Net Lot Delivery Ann. Net Change in VDLSt. George +18Washington -33Hurricane -155
Ivins -74Santa Clara -37
La Verkin -2
July 2017
43© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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St. George Market AreaQuarterly Net Change in VDL Inv. by City – Detached
PAGE 85
-7
-21
-1
62
-1
-36
55
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
St. George Washington Hurricane Santa Clara Ivins La Verkin Mesquite
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
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1,736
90
185
362
695
1,346
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin
2Q17 2Q17 Ann. Starts
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVacant Developed Lot Inv. by City – Detached / 2Q15-2Q17
PAGE 86
•27.7-.2%
•30.8-.6%
•52.7-12%
•29.6-17%
•13.4-6%
•540 -2%
July 2017
44© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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13.4
29.6
52.7
30.827.7
0.0
12.0
24.0
36.0
48.0
60.0
72.0
84.0
96.0
108.0
120.0
St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVacant Developed Lot MOS by City – Detached
PAGE 87
2Q15-2Q17540.0
1092.0
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921
628580
450498476
286
89
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
2Q17 2Q17 Ann. Starts
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS / Change – Detached / 2Q16-2Q17
PAGE 88
•36.8-31%
•16.5 -38%
•22.5+12%•21.9
-21%
•25.7 +4%
•28.9 -11%
•50.0 +2%
•72.5 -8%
July 2017
45© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market Area – by CityVDL Inventory by Home Price – Detached
PAGE 89
14
80100
141165
235
452
344
4 14
127104
5781 89
4367
153
207221
130
183 187
123
050
100150200250300350400450500
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
St. George Washington Hurricane
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St. George Market Area – by CityVDL MOS by Home Price – Detached
PAGE 90
15.07.7
40.2
87.8
17.7
32.228.2
38.243.5
48.8 51.1
14.5
84.0
20.6 21.2
0.08.8
21.9 22.832.4
53.4
64.5
280.5
113.5
0.012.024.036.048.060.072.084.096.0
108.0120.0132.0144.0156.0
$0-$199 $200-$249
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$1,000 +
St. George Washington Hurricane
July 2017
46© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS by Lot Size – Detached
PAGE 91
76.0
1.9
31.5
44.0
25.6
37.0
170.2 129.0
24.0 33.536.4
76.8
23.2
6.0
50.2
82.6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50k0.0
12.0
24.0
36.0
48.0
60.0
72.0
84.0
96.0
108.0
120.0
132.02Q16 VD L Inv. 2Q17 VD L Inv.
2Q16 VD L M OS 2Q17 VD L M OS
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St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts by Lot Size - Detached
PAGE 92
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
<5k 5k-7k 7k-10k 10k-15k 15k-30k 30k-50k >50k
July 2017
47© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
<5k 5k-7k 7k-10k 10k-15k 15k-30k 30k-50k >50k
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts by Lot Size - Detached
PAGE 93
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St. George Market Area – by CityVDL Inventory by Lot Size – Detached
PAGE 94
0
209236
267
530
307
80
0017
81
194
269
108
1802
154
57
363
36 3421
673
050
100150200250300350400450500550
< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50kSt. George Washington Hurricane
July 2017
48© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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St. George Market Area – by CityVDL MOS by Lot Size – Detached
PAGE 95
46.4
0.0
31.1
90.8
42.3
126.0
80.0
22.0
0.0
23.4
62.4
14.522.6
0.0 0.0
17.0
41.4
216.0
72.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
39.3
0.0
0.012.024.036.048.060.072.084.096.0
108.0120.0132.0144.0156.0168.0180.0192.0204.0216.0
< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50kSt. George Washington Hurricane
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17%
31%29%
23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
A Lots B Lots C Lots D & F Lots
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. Rank Market Share – Detached / 2Q12-2Q17
PAGE 96
A Lots – 24+ Ann. StartsB Lots – 12-23 Ann. StartsC Lots – 2-11 Ann. StartsD/F Lots – 0-1 Ann. Starts
1,02719.1 mos
77220.2 mos
1,33133.7 mos
1,388 694.0 mos
July 2017
49© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
0.0
96.0
192.0
288.0
384.0
480.0
576.0
672.0
768.0
864.0
Detached Attached MOS
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaFuture Lot Supply / Moths of Supply – Att/Det
PAGE 97
Detached – 39,992/ 299.4 mos. / +4%Attached – 2,313 / 152.5 mos. / -8%
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0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
4,400
4,800
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
Streets In - 0Street Paving - 686Excavation - 905Equipment - 314Survey Stakes - 38
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaFuture Lot Inventory: 1,325 Under Dev. / 8.9 MOS – Att/Det
PAGE 98
22 mos
23 mos
9 mos
July 2017
50© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaFuture Lot Inventory: Current Pipeline by County – Att/Det
PAGE 99
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin
Streets In
Street PavingExcavation
EquipmentSurvey Stakes
8 mos.7 mos.
18 mos.
8 mos.
3 mos.
0 mos.
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St. George Market Area
Conclusions2Q 2017
PAGE 100
July 2017
51© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaYear-Over-Year Percent Changes of Major Housing Components
PAGE 101
8.0%
14.3%12.7% 13.6%
0.0%
-9.0%
-18.8%
8.4%10.2%
5.3%
-6.1%-4.0%
-11.2%
-8.3%
3.2%
‐25.0%
‐20.0%
‐15.0%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Improvement Deterioration Neutral
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0250500750
1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,0003,2503,500
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
F
2018
F
2019
F
2020
F
Annual Starts Annual Closings
2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017
St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts & Closings Forecast – Att/Det
PAGE 102
**Building Permits
July 2017
52© Copyright Metrostudy 2017
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St. George Market AreaConclusions…2Q17
PAGE 103
The local economy continues to gain momentum, adding 3,000 jobs over the past 12 months, and total employment is growing at a 4.9%.
Consumer Confidence holding strong, but future expectations look a little cloudy according to consumers.
Keep your eyes on interest rates and prices, as any significant increase will push buyers to the sidelines.
New home production pushing forward despite the pressure of raising home prices.
New home inventory remains healthy with the ability to increase Finished Vacant. Builders have limited resources to build specs (F/V), however if Finished Vacant inventory does increase, expect to see some relief in prices.
The need for replacement lots in the main price ranges and desirable lot sizes remain in high demand.
The building industry as a whole is more cautious, concerned, yet positive; therefore carefully monitor absorption rates and inventory levels as we head into the second half of the year.
The key will be to maintain prices for entry level buyers, while being diligent in delivering desirable product.
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…now you knowPAGE 104
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