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8/8/2019 8 Engine Transmission Tech Road Ma Ping Consequences Oportunities for Lube Fuel JPastor Infineum SBurns Ricardo DAP Forum April 20 2010

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Engine and Transmission Technology Roadmapping:

Consequences and Opportunities for Lubricant andFuels Development

2010 API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum,April 20th – Detroit

Shea Burns, Senior Manager, Ricardo Strategic Consulting, USA

© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMIT



Agenda

• o a ren s an emes

•

• Consequences and opportunities for lubricants and fuels

• Conclusions

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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 2 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2



What’s going on ……?Global trends and themes

Situation:

• Global automotive industr is under oin ra id chan e

• “Mega Trends” are impacting OEMs, suppliers and consumers

• Fuel economy standards, emissions legislation, globalisation, and the rise ofemerging markets are creating new opportunities & pressures

Complication:

• Economic downturn is accelerating the changes:

• After the highs of 2000-2007, slow recovery from 2009-2010

• Financial distress among suppliers and OEMs is leading to consolidation and

• Tailpipe emissions remain important but fuel economy standards and CO 2dominate R&D budgets and are the major powertrain technology drivers

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Industry undergoing rapid change: “Mega Trends”im act consumers, OEMs & su liers

Global trends and themes

• Major markets suffered most in downturn – NA, EU, Japan• Western sales growth “catch-up” until 2014, “real” growth in China, India

& Central / Eastern Euro e

Macro EconomicEnvironment

Legislation • Fuel economy, CO 2, safety & end of use legislation increase product cost

• Shift of growth and market power to global institutions• Regional advantages become a lever for global competitivenessGlobalisation

• More focus on small cars and smaller enginesProblem for OEMs who rely on large, premium vehicle profitabilityModel Mix

• Growing pressures from CO 2, and emissions reduction targets• Consumers want clean transport but don’t want to pay extra for it

• New technologies add complexity/risk & cost for OEMs and supply chain

Climate

Change Debate

• Complex road maps with no obvious winning technology• Shortage of skills and capacity to develop and deliver new technologies

TechnologyChallenges

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row o ow cos ve c es an en ry o new s n o ma ure mar e s• R&D spend level or rising, despite lower levels of industry profitability Performance



Minimal sales growth expected in EU, USA or Japan:Emer in markets are ke to rowth

Global trends and themes

30 25

30

Car sales [million units]

10

15

20

25

30

10

15

20

25

5

10

15

20

10

15

20

25

+3%+3%

+0%

+2%

0

5

2008 2009 2015

0

2008 2009 2015

2008 2009 2015

25

30

0

5

2008 2009 2015WesternEurope

EasternEurope

North America Japan+10%

10

15

20

25

30

15

20

25

30

0

5

1015

0

5

2008 2009 20150

5

2008 2009 2015

2008 2009 2015

South America Africa /Middle East

Asia –excl. Japan

+1%CAGR

2008 - 2015

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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 5 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2Source: Ricardo Analysis, JD Power GCATT Q110

Main winners are China, India and Africa/Middle East Emerging Asian markets are now larger than North America or Europe



… Resulting in stark choices for OEMsGlobal trends and themes

INNOVATE AND

MOVE EASTAND/OR

DIE…OR

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Agenda


•


• Conclusions

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Increasing fuel consumption & emissions pressure:Drivin develo ment of new owertrain technolo ies

Technology roadmapping

Legislation Competition• Taxation: Emissions & efficiency

related taxes (CO 2 /NOx)

• Zero Emissions Vehicle

• Increasing OEM activities• Alternative powertrains as a

competitive measure• “ ”a orn a ene s

• Incentives: e.g. “CongestionCharge” toll exemption (London)

for future full battery EVs

Conventionalpowertrain

• Limited resources/supply

• Oil security fears• Continued increase in

• Cost / value proposition

• Increasing price sensitivity• Public awareness of climateconsumption

• Increased use of biofuelchange and global warming

• Increasing environmentalconcerns

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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 8 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2Source: Ricardo Analysis



For the first time fuel economy and CO 2 legislation isintroduced across the world with challen in tar ets


Fuel economy / CO 2 legislation for light duty vehicles

NHTSA CAFE EISA binding

USA 50States 35 US mpg

Pass Car (US mpg)

Light Truck (US mpg)

27.5 37.8

28.8

34.125.3

23.5

arge or

Fleet Average (US mpg)

Europe 140 g/km CO 2Voluntary target,not met by 2008

130 /km CO 2015

Proposed passenger carlong term target

Mandatory target phase-in 95 /km

Japan

CO 2

Fleet average fuel economy targets forpassenger cars & light trucks (<2.5t)15.3 16.8km/l km/l

China Phase 1 (2005)

Phase 2 (2008) 21 - 43 mpg by 2008

19 - 38 mpg by 2005

India

2005 20152010 20252020

No fuel economy or CO 2 legislation currently in place

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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 9 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2Source: Ricardo EMLEG databaseNHTSA = National Highway Traffic Safety Administration CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy, FE = Fuel economy



Most cars in Europe do not meet proposed CO2standard: The most rofitable face reatest challen e


450“Growth & Compliance”

Vehicles“Profit”Vehicles

350

400

/ k m )

300

c l e C O 2 (

200

b i n e d C

y

100

N E D

C C o

Permitted specific

emissions of CO 2by vehicle weight

0

50 Gasoline Vehicles Diesel Vehicles

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Vehicle Test Inertia (kg)

Source: kba, Ricardo analysis



Government policy & customer preference:Can be conflictin market drivers …..


Political &

Legislative

Environmental Legislation

Market Maturity• Diverse market drivers

a n g e

Energy Securityar e r vers no necessar y

align with legislator views

• Surve s & market research do

r s o

f C h

Economics/Commercial

Oil Price/Pump Price

Cost/Value Propositionnot always reflect whatcustomers do !

D r i v e conom c s s e.g.

$140/barrel of oil can change

both legislative and consumerdrivers

TCO*: Affordability/Incentive

CustomerDemand

Social desirability &responsibility

• Significant regional variationsare always present

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*Note: ICE = Internal Combustion Engine. TCO = Total Cost of OwnershipSource: Ricardo Analysis

Product Supply



Incremental powertrain improvements are the mostTechnology roadmapping

Powertrain Cost : Benefit Analysis Impact

• Continuous improvement ofconventional ICEs

•

CO 2 Reductionvs. Current Gasoline Unit

50% Fuel Cell

diesel

• Hybrids will deliver efficiency40% Hybrid

PHEV/EV

, -

• CO2 benefits of PHEV/EV dependon renewables content of electricity

30%

Diesel

• Automated transmissions canfurther improve economy by up to10%

20%

ImprovedGasoline

over enc mar manua s

• All technologies must addressconsumer utility and cost200%

0%0% 50% 100% 150% 250% 300%

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requ remen sPowertrain Cost Increasevs. Current Gasoline Unit

Source: Ricardo Analysis



Uncertainty around alternative powertrains:ICE continues to be dominant ower source


Indicative EU Powertrain Share Forecasts to 2030 ConsequencesINDICATIVE

100%

Fuel Cell

• The powertrain picture to2030 is uncertain

• “ ”

Market Share

75%

Pure EV

Diesel

Internal Combustion Enginelikely to remain the largestsingle application

50%

DieselHybrid

• Hybrid and plug-in hybrid willgrow, mainly at the expenseof diesel, as emissions

25%

GasolinePHEV

compliance becomesincreasingly expensive

• Pure EVs will row fromGasolineHybrid

Gasoline

2012

• Fuel cells start to appear insmall numbers from 2025

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: Ricardo Analysis

Year



Transmission production mix is strongly regional;Advanced automation oised for rowth


Transmission Production Preferences and Trends (1/2)

• Preference for automatic transmissions driven b ease of drivin & comfort

NorthAmerica

• CVTs (Continuously Variable) will gain share, led by Japanese OEMs• DCTs (Dual Clutch) will enter sub-compact segment, as OEMs leverage

European technology• Preference for manual transmissions, moving from 5 to 6 speed• AMTs likely to grow: Cost effective but with refinement challenges• DCTs will capture market share, development focus on efficiency, launchEurope

performance and cost competitiveness• CVTs not liked in Europe; technology expected to remain niche

Japan • eve opmen r ven y apanese eman an power-sp y rrequirements

China • China will remain mainly manual, with automation split between CVT, DCTand conventional automatic

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• India will grow demand for lowest cost manual transmissionsIndia



Agenda


•


• Conclusions

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Consequences and opportunities



Introduction of advanced powertrains provides oppor-tunities for lubricant, fuel and additive innovation


Gasoline Diesel Transmissions & Hybrid

• Engine downsizing• Improved fuel injection

equipment

• Engine downsizing• Lean operation

• Ethanol blends

• Dual clutch transmissions• Advanced automatic

Transmissions• Exhaust gas recirculation• Aftertreatment for

NOx/ PM control

• Valve train complexity• Turbo boosting/

su erchar in

• Start/stop & micro hybrid• Full hybrid & PHEV• New materials

• New materials• New materials

• Submerged electrical parts

EBDI ®

“Extreme Downsizing” NZED “Diesel for Tier 2 Bin 2” eDCT TM “Efficient Automation”

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Consequences and opportunities (2/3):Transmission lubricants

q pp

Transmission Lubricants Consequences & Opportunities

SteppedAutomaticTransmissions

• ore gears, g er power ens ty

• Fluid solutions to reduce torque convertor and actuation losses,

and to prevent fatigue

• Wet clutch performance with manual transmission performance• Compatibility with submerged electronics and seal materials

• Fluids to deliver high torque transfer combined with appropriateclutch friction characteristics

CVT• Fluids optimised for future generations of CVT

• Lower viscosity, better air release, and electronics compatibility

• High performance fluids for future hybrid optimised transmissions

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• High dielectric strength with excellent viscometric properties




Consequences and opportunities (3/3):Fuels

q pp

Fuels Consequences & Opportunities

Advanced Diesel

• Intolerant to deposits requires cleanliness additives to ensurelong term power, fuel economy and emissions compliance

• Enhanced lubricity additives to cope with higher pressures andFuel Injection new materials• Higher injector operating temperatures potential need for new

bulk fuel stability additives

• 1st generation Additives for stability, cleanliness and cold flowproperties

o ese • 2nd generation Potentially specific solutions for cold flow andcontinued treatment with lubricity additives

Fuel Economy/EmissionsS stems

• Fuel borne catalysts for diesel particulate filter regeneration mayoffer better compromise on fuel economy/DPF performance

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Consequences and opportunities:Issues and concerns

Issues & Concerns

•

Fuel Economy

•

m ss on ystemCompatibility

•

o- eve opmentvalue generation

mandatory delivery of FEover vehicle lifetime

•

• Long oil life

• High fuel economy

hardware is expensive

• Increasing requirement-

become an integral partof the delivery system• Hardware durability

• Emissions systemcompatibility

fluid & hardwaredevelopers

•Requires compromise

engagement

How do we ensure the correct fluids are used

How do we deliver the best compromise for

How do we ensure the system value of these high value fluids is shared fairl

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over t e ve c e et me sta e o ers between stakeholders ?



Agenda


•


• Conclusions

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Conclusions

• The principal drivers for hardware evolution to 2030 will be emissions

reduction

• incrementally, resulting in a mix of solutions with no obvious outright winners

•

supported by increasingly sophisticated transmissions

• Performance challen es offered b the introduction of advanced hardware willprovide opportunities to create value for fluid developers, marketers and OEMs

• Early collaboration and hardware/fluid co-development will be essential toensure maximum value and benefit to all stakeholders

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