9th IBFAN Africa Regional Conference, 3 February, 2016

Climate Change: Implications on Maternal, Infant

and Young Child Nutrition

Dr. Lynne Carter, Chief of PartyUSAID/Uganda Education and Research to Improve

Climate Change Adaptation Activity, under the auspices of MUCCRI

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts?• What are the likely impacts on nutrition and

health?• What are the potential responses that could

reduce those impacts?

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts?• What are the likely impacts on nutrition and

health?• What are the potential responses that could reduce

those impacts?

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?• A long-term change in global or

regional climate patterns (long term weather patterns) over periods of t ime that range from decades to mil l ions of years. It may be a change in the average weather condit ions or a change in the distribution of weather events compared to an average e.g., greater or fewer extreme events.

• Climate change may be l imited to a specif ic region, or across the whole Earth. 

• Today people often mean a change from the mid to late 20th century onwards and attr ibuted largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels and global in scope.

HOW DOES IT HAPPEN? THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Burning oil & gas, cutting forests, cattle, farming, etc. CO2, CH4, NOx, H2O, etc.Thicker atmospheric blanket – holds more heat

More heat = rising temps> changes in water cycles, seasons, storminess, how rain falls (e.g. heavy downpours), plant and animal movements, sea levels, melting glaciers, thawing permafrost

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts on nutrition and

health?• What are the potential responses that could

reduce those impacts?

CLIMATE CHANGE: ALREADY UNDERWAY: EACH DECADE WARMER – 1970 AND UP

State of the Climate, 2009

UGANDA HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE

Historical temperatures in Uganda average 22°C with maximum daily temperatures averaging 29°C and minimum daily temperatures averaging 17°C.

From: Uganda Climate Profile, World Bank, 2015

UGANDA HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION

**

Annual rainfall in Uganda is on average 1180 mm; Rainfall varies dramatically with some regions seeing as little as 500 mm/year and some as high as 2100 mm/year

From: Uganda Climate Profile, World Bank, 2015

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts?• What are the likely impacts on nutrition and health?• What are the potential responses that could reduce

those impacts?

Key MessagesModel projections indicate that for the future:• Temperatures will continue to increase throughout the

century• There is uncertainty regarding changes in annual precip• Extreme rainfall events will be more frequent and more

intense (heavy downpours)• There will be an increase in the duration of dry spells—

dryer conditions – longer, more frequent (even just from higher temps)

• Climate change will vary spatially (diff impacts diff places)From: Uganda Climate Profile, World Bank, 2015

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts? • What are the likely impacts on nutrition and health?• What are the potential responses that could reduce

those impacts?

POSSIBLE IMPACTS IN UGANDA• Agriculture

• Suitable locations for food growing – changing• Noxious weeds seem to grow better with higher CO2

• Irratic rainfall => less productivity• Human Health

• More allergens grow with more CO2 => & lower air quality=>respiratory

• Malaria and other diseases in new locations and more freq.• > Refugees, nutritional health and well being

• Water Resources• Warmer temps & no more rain how much water is available?• Who/what will get that water? Who decides?

• Extreme Events: likely to increase• Heavy rainfall = ?? Where?

Impacting what?• Drought leads to ?? Who suffers? Where? ->

move?

PROJECTED CHANGE IN UGANDA TEA PRODUCTION

AREAS

From: CGIAR doc

2050 Suitable Areas

Present Suitable Areas

CLIMATE CHANGE: RISK AMPLIFIER/ THREAT MULTIPLIER

• Many single problems already being exhibited are likely to become more intense under changing climate conditions; air quality↓, water resources +/-, food availability ⇅

• Complex problems as well:• Changes in one system can have direct or indirect effects on

other systems: water/food<=>health • Local events can propagate through complex causal chains and

feedbacks on various space and time scales: local diseases on the rise can become epidemics even far away under right conditions

• Local events can also be lessened by resources from afar: drought in one place – bring in food from another place

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts?• What are the likely impacts on nutrition and

health?• What are the potential responses that could reduce

those impacts?

MORE LIKELIHOODS AND ANALOGIES THAN SPECIFIC STUDIES

• IPCC – assessment of many regions and crops shows more negative impacts of climate change on crop yields than positive impacts – IPCC 2014 Policy makers summary

• IFPRI – in 2050 calorie availability likely to decline in developing world => 24 million additional undernourished children (0-5 yrs); 21% more than in a world w/o CC – nearly ½ living in sub-Saharan Africa. CC will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels w/o CC (Nelson et al, 2009, Parry et al, 2009)

• Ethiopia and Kenya – children 5 yr or less born during drought 36 and 50% more likely to be malnourished; Niger – 2 yr and less - 72% more likely to be malnourished (Watkins K, 2007)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON NUTRITION

• What is climate change?• What is already happening?• What is projected?• What are the likely impacts?• What are the likely impacts on nutrition and health?• What are the potential responses that could reduce

those impacts?

THERE ARE TWO WAYS TO RESPOND TO A CHANGING CLIMATEMitigation: Attacking the Causes =

fewer gases released: energy efficiency; alternative energies, OR increase capture (increase sink) – plant trees, maintain wetlands, etc. All can do the same actions

GOAL: fewer gases in air (thinner blanket)

Implementation: NOW and save/make $Impacts on climate change: 50-100 yrs.

_______________________________________Adaptation: Actions to cope with

impacts: see trends & plan ahead; incorporate likely future climates into planning; take specific action on specific problems–e.g. drought–save water; heavy rain–conservation tillage/mulch

GOAL: reduce sufferingImplementation: NOW and in future Effects on community: Now and Future.

ADAPTATIONS CAN REDUCE AGRICULTURAL LOSSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

• Information and Training: many applications

• Climate adaptation info – reaching people with ICTs – weather info, marketing info, etc. CHAI project

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONTINUED

• To Drought: • Drought tolerant

strains• Agroforestry• Water capture• Irrigation options• Mulching• Conservation tillage

From: NARO, GIZ, The Hunger Project, FAO, etc.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONTINUED

• To Heavy Rainfall:• Heavy rain tolerant

strains• Agroforestry• Water protection/mounds• Early warning systems• Mulching• Conservation tillage• Flood proofing

From: NARO, GIZ, The Hunger Project, FAO, Mercy Corps, etc.

CONCLUSION

• Climate change is real.• The impacts can be direct, indirect, simple

and complex and are mostly harmful to many aspects of human and other life – and particularly for those most vulnerable.

• We can respond and reduce the impacts if we chose and if we act.

www.feedthefuture.gov