a clean and permanent energy infrastructure for pakistan solar hydrogen energy system 1991

Int. J. Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 169 200, 1991. 0360-3199/9l $3.00 + 0.00 Printed in Great Britain. Pergamon Press plc.

International Association for Hydrogen Energy.

A C L E A N A N D P E R M A N E N T E N E R G Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E FOR PAKISTAN: SOLAR-HYDROGEN ENERGY SYSTEM

N. LUTFI and T. N. VEZIRO~;LU

Clean Energy Research Institute, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, U.S.A.

(Received Jot publication 19 October 1990)

Abstract--A solar-hydrogen energy system has been proposed for Pakistan as the best replacement for the present fossil fuel based energy system. Hydrogen is to be produced via a photovoltaic~electrolysis system, utilizing the available non-agricultural sunny terrain in Baluchistan region. There will be a desalination plant for sea water desalination. The area under the photovoltaic panels with the availability of water would provide suitable environment for growing some cash crops. This would change the vast useless desert land into green productive farms. In order to show the quantitative benefits of the proposed system, future trends of important energy and economical parameters have been studied with and without hydrogen introduction. These included population, energy demand (fossil + hydrogen), energy production (fossil + hydrogen), gross national product, fossil energy imports, world energy prices, environmental savings due to hydrogen introduction, savings due to the higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen, by-product credit, agricultural income, income from hydrogen sale, photovoltaic cell area, total land area, water desalination plant capacity, capital investment, operating and maintenance cost, total income from the system environmental impact and quality of life. The results indicate that adopting the solar-hydrogen energy system would eliminate the import dependency on fossil fuels, increase gross product per capita, reduce pollution, improve quality of life, and establish a permanent and clean energy system. The total annual expenditure for the proposed system is quite small compared to the total income expected. The availability of water, the cast crop production, electricity and hydrogen would result in rapid development of Baluchistan, the largest province of Pakistan.

N O M E N C L A T U R E A Difference 7 Fuel consumption fraction

A Constant; area ~ Ratio of environmental impact of hydrogen B Constant to that by fossil fuels C Constant; fuel price; cost; capital O Doubling time D Cost of environmental damage ~/ Ratio of hydrogen utilization efficiency to that E Energy consumption/demand (fossil plus of fossil fuels; efficiency

hydrogen) F Average agricultural income per unit area F Fossil fuel consumption (production) rate;

fossil fuel imports Superscripts G Gross national product H Hydrogen production (consumption) rate a,b,c,v,u,y,z Constant powers I Income K Constant Subscripts L Quality of life indicator a Area O Operating & maintenance cost b Balance of system P Pollution c Composite; cell Q Population d Demand R Fossil fuel resources e Energy; environment S Solar insolation; savings f Fossil fuel t Time g Gross national product U Fossil fuel pollution per unit energy h Hydrogen V Dimensionless doubling time modifier; volt- i Imports; irrigation

age n Number (year) W Dimensionless population growth modifier; o Initial year; oxygen

water p Production; plant; price; cost; post

Greek letters q Population; per capita s Storage, transmission and compression

fl Ratio of total PV cell area to total plant area r Dimensionless ratio Ratio of cultivated land area to total plant t Total area w World; water

169

170 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO~LU

av Average The United Nations Intergovernmental Committee on el Electrolyser Environment recently issued a report [7], prepared by pv Photovoltaic 300-plus environmentalists, which states that the green- re Rectifier house effect, acid rains and pollution caused by fossil

fuels are of immense proportions, that they are to play havoc with the global climate and that to counteract the

1. INTRODUCTION effects, carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced im- The standard of living of a country is directly pro- mediately by 60% worldwide. In order to accomplish portional to the energy it consumes. The energy is the such a reduction, fossil fuel usage must be reduced by basic input to sustain the economic growth and to 60%. Such a reduction would bring the technological provide the basic amenities of life for the entire popu- civilization to a standstill. The only way to accomplish lation of a country. Consequently all the countries, and such a reduction is to use a fuel which does not produce especially the developing countries, are trying to increase carbon dioxide. their energy consumption to increase the living stan- In order to replace the fossil fuels, renewable primary dards of their peoples, energy sources, such as direct solar radiation, wind

At present, some 60% of the world energy demand is energy, ocean thermal energy and geothermal energy, met by fluid fossil fuels (i.e. petroleum and natural gas), are being considered. However, these do not possess all as shown in Fig. 1, and their reserves are being depleted the desirable qualities possessed by petroleum and natu- fast [1-3]. In addition technologies for fossil fuel extrac- ral gas. For example, some are only intermittently tion, transportation, processing, and particularly their available, others are only available away from the end use (combustion), have harmful impact on the consumption centers, and none can be used as a fuel for environment, which causes direct and indirect damage to transportation. Therefore, it becomes necessary to find the economy, an intermediary or synthetic form of energy, which can

The world is now at the verge of another energy be produced using the new unconventional energy crisis--a crisis that may make the oil price shock of sources. In such a system, the intermediary energy form 1970s seem like a minor tremor. The emerging crisis or carrier must be transportable and storable, economi- relates not to issues of energy supply, but to a complex cal to produce, and renewable and pollution free if web of environmental problems caused by the use of possible [8]. fossil fuels that not only endangers the quality of life Many scientists and engineers believe that the hydro- in modern society but also jeopardizes continued gen energy system could form the best link between the global economic development. Deteriorating urban air new energy sources and the user, and at the same time quality [4], observed global warming from the green- solve the environmental problems caused by fossil fuels. house effect [5], crop losses, and the acidification of lakes In the hydrogen energy system, it is envisaged that and forests [6], are interrelated consequences of fossil hydrogen will be produced from water using the non-fos- fuel use that are making fossil fuel pollution front page sil energy sources, and will be used in every application, news. It has been estimated that, this year alone the where the fossil fuels are being used today [9]. environmental damage caused by the use of fossil fuels Hydrogen can be manufactured by any and all pri- will add up to $2,360 billion worldwide; next year it will mary energy sources. It is the cleanest and most efficient be higher. These are not only prompting policy-makers fuel. When its higher utilization efficiencies and the to propose far-reaching new environmental control environmental damage caused by fossil fuels are taken policies, but are also prompting scientists to develop into account, hydrogen becomes the cheapest fuel. low-polluting, non-fossil energy sources, which have the Hydrogen's use as an energy carrier is growing fast: potential to substitute for the present fossil fuel based energy system. --Space programs around the world use hydrogen as

their fuel; - -The United States Aerospaceplane, which is now

CRUDE3g/~.~_..~.~.~.Z..~OIL ~ under development, will fly on hydrogen; 37. --U.S., Japanese, Soviet and European aircraft manu- / ' ,x/~_..~4.._~-~.j '~X\ NUCLEAR facturers are considering hypersonic passenger trans-

~ 5 . 5 r . port to run on hydrogen; / ~,~ ~'~S~f-/-.~Yx.~ HYDROELECTRIC [[ ~ 6.67. --TokyOpower plants;Electric Utility has two hydrogen fuel cell

L ~ --United Technologies and Toshiba have recently an- nounced that they will offer hydrogen fuel cells on a commercial basis starting 1992;

LIQUIDS & GAS'~JJJJJJ~ - -Around the world, there are experimental cars, buses 22.67* " ~ , 7 . , / / / / / / / / C O A L and homes fuelled by hydrogen;

28.0g and - -Mos t importantly, in a milestone event in the

Fig. 1. World energy use in 1990. history of hydrogen energy in 1990, the Geneva based

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN 171

- - ~ BUILDING THE FOUNDATIONS

OF THE HYDROGEN ENERGY SYSTEM

I S O / T C 197 HYDROGEN ENERGY S3"P, ATEGIC POUCY STATEMENT

Need for InternaUonsl Standards ] = . . . . . l To facilitate the economic and safe I

production, storage, transport and utilization of hydrogen as an environmentally cornpatlbfa energy carder and feedstock, Intematlonal standards are needed.

BIo-envlronmentai constraints and climatic change, due to the iexponantlal growth of pollution from fossil resources, call for the urgent introduction lof hydrogen as a clean, renewable type of energy.

- - J Hydrogen, produced from water and recombined with oxygen to water, is the favodte clean fuel, energy carder and energy stock. Without

atlonal standards the common use and custody transfer of hydrogen would Ized. GATT- and EC- regulations require the free trade of any commoditlee

file hindrance of technical barriers.

Fig. 2. Strategic policy statement for the preparation of hydrogen energy international standards.

International Standards Organisation decided that the which is indicated by its small GNP per capita of $400. hydrogen energy system is a viable energy infrastruc- The country will need large inputs of energy in order to ture of the future, and therefore started work for the sustain the pace of economic development at a reason- preparation of the appropriate technical standards for able level and to meet the growing aspirations of its hydrogen energy technology. A meeting was held in rapidly increasing population [11, 12]. Zurich on 21-22 June 1990, for this purpose [10 ] . Energy consumed in Pakistan comprises at present Figure 2 summarizes the Strategic Policy Statement about two thirds in commercial and one third in non- for the preparation of Hydrogen Energy International commercial forms. Non-commercial fuels are generally standards. Table 1 shows the structure of various used by the rural population. Since the non-commercial subcommittees formed at the meeting, sector has been rather static and reliable figures are in

It is thus the right time to initiate and plan an orderly general not available, we will restrict our consideration conversion to the hydrogen energy system, which will to commericial energy. Figure 4 shows the percentage provide the world with the most efficient, cleanest and share of different sources of energy in the overall permanent energy system to protect our environment consumption of energy. This figure clearly shows forever, and will ensure a higher quality of life for its the dominance of oil and gas in the consumption of inhabitants, energy, which adds to about 75% of the total for the last

three decades. The most dramatic changes in the last forty years are the major decline in the use of coal,

2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION greater reliance on artificially cheap domestic natural AND PROBLEM STATEMENT gas, and steady development of the country's hydro

A developing country, Pakistan with a surface area of potential. 796,000 km 2 and population of about 110 million is among the countries where the provision of adequate Table 1. Subcommittees structure and reliable energy is one of the major challenges in the Number Subcommittee name Secretariat realization of the socio-economic development of the country. Presently some 65% of the country's commer- SCI Definitions Canada cial energy demand is met with indigenous sources, and SC2 Measurements Germany

SC3 Handling Canada the rest has to be met through imports, mostly in the SC4 Safety Canada form of oil, at a cost of about 26% of the country's SC5 Surface vehicles U.S.A. export earnings. In the past, the country experienced two SC6 Aerospace U.S.A. oil crises in 1973 and 1979. These resulted in draining of SC7 Electrochemical devices Belgium more than half of the valuable foreign exchange, which SC8 Hydrides China could have been used to import other capital goods for SC9 Environment U.S.A. economic development. Figure 3 shows the annual in- SC10 Applications Germany digenous oil production and import of crude oil. The U.N.-ISO/TC 197 Hydrogen Energy Technologies. Sec- country is still at a lower level of economic development, retariat: Switzerland.


e--e INDIGENOUS OIL .A--~ IMPC~IIr.O OIL

150

I I ! I I I I I I I I 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

WARS

Fig. 3. Indigenous oil production and crude oil import.

The proven fossil fuel reserves of Pakistan amount to Pakistan, like other developing countries, is trying to only 32,605 PJ as shown in Table 2 [13]. With the present expand its energy infrastructure. It could avoid the energy consumption growth rate of 7% per year corre- mistakes of industrial countries, by basing its energy sponding to a doubling time of 10 years, these reserves infrastructure on the solar-hydrogen energy system, would last only 21 years. Even if new discoveries should rather than on a non-renewable and environmentally result in doubling the reserves, this period would in- incompatible system. crease by only 8 years. It should be pointed out that the Hydrogen could be produced by a photo- coal reserves, which account for 18% of the total proven voltaic-electrolysis system, utilizing the available non- fossil fuel reserves constitute mostly of poor quality coal. agricultural sunny terrain in the Baluchistan region

However, Pakistan is blessed with plentiful renewable [14, 15]. It is intended to cover the southern part of the energy sources, especially solar energy which could be province with PV panels. There will be a desalination coupled with hydrogen production, in order to establish plant for the sea water desalination in order to supply an inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy fresh water for the production of hydrogen and for system. The conversion of solar energy into hydrogen irrigation purposes. The PV panels would be installed results in a versatile energy carrier for solar energy high above the ground on concrete posts. The area under storage, transportation, distribution and utilization [14]. the photovoltaic panels with the availability of water

e - e OIL * - * G A S

60 H COAL, v--~ I-IYDRO

5O

2O

10

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

WARS

Fig. 4. Share of different energy sources in overall energy consumption of Pakistan.


Table 2. Proven and estimated fossil fuel OTEC and wind respectively. The figure also reserves of Pakistan include the present cost of gasoline in $ G J- L (G 1).

Proven Estimated G2 represent cost of gasoline taking into account Fuel reserves reserves the utilization efficiency penalty of 26%, and G3 type (P J) (P J) represents the cost of gasoline taking into account

Oil 6330 16768 the utilization efficiency and cost of environmental Gas 20475 42000 damage ($ 10.62 GJ-l) . Coal 5800 14646 (e) With the research and development efforts carried

out in National Institute of Silicon Technology, Total 32605 73414 Islamabad, Pakistan has already acquired the

technology to manufacture photovoltaic cells

would provide suitable environment for growing cash from its indigenous sources [23]. crops. This would change the vast useless desert land (f) The electrolytic production of hydrogen using

photovoltaic electricity would have strong en- into green productive farm land, in addition to produc- vironmental advantages, because of the absence of ing energy. Hydrogen could be stored in the empty carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of sulfur natural gas wells and could be distributed all over the and other noxious pollutants, during the manufac- country (initially mixed with natural gas) through turing of photovoltaic cells and the electrolytic the existing natural gas pipeline system and through production of hydrogen. extensions.

This study is intended to explore the possibilities and (g) The installation of PV panels would require use of a large area for which much useless land available

the merits of applying a solar-hydrogen energy system in the Baluchistan region could be utilized. to Pakistan. It attempts to assess the future role of such an energy system in meeting the country's energy needs 3.1. Proposed site without any import dependence, and to ensure the economic development of the country. In order to show The cost of electricity accounts for over 50% of the the quantitative benefits of the proposed system, a model cost of hydrogen produced by electrolysis and delivered

to a consumer some 1600 km from the production site will be developed to predict the future trends of import- [18]. It is thus desirable to locate such plants in sunny ant energy and economicalparameters, with and without areas where PV electricity could be produced more hydrogen introduction [16]. cheaply, and then distribute the hydrogen through

pipelines to regions of consumption. Also transporting 3. PROPOSED SOLAR-HYDROGEN hydrogen long distances via pipelines typically costs far

ENERGY SYSTEM less than transporting the same amount of energy in the form of electricity via transmission lines [24].

Among the various methods available for the pro- With the exception of the extreme northern region, duction of hydrogen from water using solar energy, the photovoltaic-electrolysis system has been proposed for during the peak winter where the insolation values fall

to as low as 7.5 M J m 2day-l , the country as a whole Pakistan because of the following reasons, exhibits an excellent solar climate, with most of the

(a) The water electrolysis is one of the most promising country receiving an average of 19.0 MJ m 2 day a [25]. hydrogen production methods because of its tech- Baluchistan with its available uninhabited and unused nologicalmaturity, simplicity and the high quality sunny lands, offers itself as the best location for the of hydrogen (and oxygen) it produces [17]. proposed solar-hydrogen energy system. It is proposed

(b) Electrolysers can be coupled directly to photo- to install photovoltaic cells high above the land on voltaic cells [18]. concrete posts. The idea is to benefit from the shade

(c) From the various technologies available for the provided by PV panels to improve the climate of the conversion of solar energy into electricity, e.g. desert and use it for agriculture after irrigation. There wind, OTEC, photovoltaic, hydro, etc., photo- will be a desalination plant for sea water desalination in voltaic is much less geographically limited, since order to supply fresh water for the production of photovoltaic electricity can be generated in any hydrogen and for irrigation purposes. The area under sunny region, the PV panels would provide a suitable environment for

(d) The photovoltaic cells, due to the latest techno- growing cash crops. This would change the vast useless logical development, have a great potential of desert land into green productive farms. lowering the cost of electricity, and hence the cost The coastal area of Baluchistan is a potential site for of hydrogen. This can be seen from Fig. 5, which wind energy as well, and thus in the future the wind shows the cost of hydrogen as a function of solar energy could be used in combination with the PV plants electricity cost projected for the year 2000 and for to produce electricity for hydrogen production. various production methods [18-22]. As can be About 60% of the total reserves of natural gas of seen from this figure, the hydro source can pro- Pakistan is located in Baluchistan. The availability of duce the cheapest hydrogen because of its lowest empty natural gas wells in Baluchistan would facilitate electricity generation cost. It is followed by PV, the large scale hydrogen storage. A comprehensive


;1 ~ Gasoline bulk price at $ l . l /ga l lon

40 ;2 . . . . • Gasoline including ut i l izat ion eff ic iency pena 1 ty

3 --..---m- Gasoltne tnclud|og ut i l izat ion eff ic iency penalty plus envlromental damage $ 10.62/0J

35 PV 2.4 - 4.2 ¢/ l~h --

Wind 4.05 - 5.05 C/KWh

u~ 50 Hydro 1.4 - 2.82 C/KWh

3 OTEC 3.2 - 5.5 C/KWh

25 - /

G3 W . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

~ 20 _ m • " " " . . . . . ~" . . . . / . . . . . . . "~_ • I

15 = - - - - - !

',~ °J, ~I i ~ - - ~ . - - - ~ -~ ./-! ~ l l i ! '

/ " I ~ " I P" " I

oi,, I,, I, l,i, ,:, ,: I,,,, , ~ , , I 2 ,~ 5 6 7 8 9

COST OF ELECTRICITY CENTS/KWh ( 1990 U.S. $ )

Fig. 5. Cost o f hydrogen as a funct ion o f cost o f electr ic i ty projected fo r the year 2000 fo r di f ferent technologies,

pipeline system from the natural gas reserves in Baluchis- ity to split water into its constituent elements, hydrogen tan to supply natural gas to the rest of the country and oxygen. There will be a compressor that would being already exists, which could be utilized to transport the produced hydrogen (and oxygen) up to the required hydrogen (initially mixed with natural gas), after extend- pressure, and a hydrogen storage and distribution unit. ing the pipeline system to the site of the hydrogen plant. There will be a desalination plant for sea water desalin-

ation to supply fresh water to the electrolyser and for 3.2. P V-Electrolysis system components irrigation purposes:

Figure 6 shows the block diagram of the proposed A detailed description of the above mentioned system PV-~lectrolysis system. It consists of a PV array that is presented below. would collect sunlight and convert it into d.c. electricity. (a) P V Farm. The amount of direct-beam solar energy There will be an electrolyser that would use this electric- that a surface receives is optimized by keeping the

Seo Voter

_ ~ Oesahno±ion ] Ptant ~ Irrig~i~ion

i Sotor Rad;o~ion .an

IIIII I "'"*'I "-" .j E,.o,.,o,,q Elec±rotyzer Compressor & U±iIiz(~IIo

Distrilou%lon

o~

Fig. 6. Block diagram of PV-electroiysls system.


surface at right angles to the sun's direct radiation at all It is proposed to use amorphous-silicon solar times. In most cases, maneuvering a surface is impracti- cells, because of the rapid technological advances in cal or the cost of energy and the mechanical assembly that field, their lower energy and material require- required to track the sun accurately and consistently ments and their capability of being mass produced each day generally outweighs the extra energy obtained easily [18]. by doing so when flat plate solar cells are used. The next (b) Electrolyser. The electrolyser unit uses d.c. elec- best proposition is to fix the surface's position so that the tricity produced by PV cells, and thus avoids the use of sun's angle on the plane is closest to the perpendicular a rectifier for the conversion of d.c. to a.c. electricity. most of the time [26, 27]. Moreover, there is a good theoretical and empirical

In the northern hemisphere, the surface angle and evidence that a direct connection between the solar array position that faces the sun most directly throughout the and the electrolyser works extremely well and obviates year is directed due south. North of the equator, the the need for expensive d.c. to d.c. power-conditioning sun's path is always located in the southern half of the equipment [29-31]. sky. A surface must be positioned facing south to There are currently three electrolysis technologies maximize its exposure to the sun over an entire day. To commercially available or under development. Two of optimize the sun's energy, the surface must be angled up these, the "unipolar" and "bipolar" alkaline electroly- from the horizontal to face the sun. The optimum tilt sers, which produce hydrogen and oxygen by passing angle over a full year must balance the summer maxi- direct current through an aqueous solution of potassium mum and winter minimum declination angle. The sur- hydroxide, are commercially available, mature technol- face tilt angle that is most perpendicular to the sun's ogies. Unipolar electrolysers are less expensive, more direct rays at this central solar altitude angle is equal to efficient, and more modular; bipolar electrolyser have the site's latitude angle [27, 28]. the advantage of high pressure operation, which saves on

Thus, in order to convert the solar energy into electric- compression costs for the produced hydrogen. While ity south facing PV panels tilted at an angle equal to the pressurized electrolysers lead to savings in compressor site's latitude to optimize the availability of solar radi- work, they tend to be slightly more costly and less ations would be used. The PV panels could be installed efficient as compared to the less capital-intensive atmos- on concrete posts at a height of about 4.5 m above the pheric pressure unipolar units. The third type of elec- ground as shown in Fig. 7. Each post would have the trolyser, which uses solid polymer electrolytes (SPE) capacity to support 48 m 2 of PV cell area. The advantage made of an acid catalyst, is still in demonstration stage. of having high raised structures, as explained earlier, is At present, platinum catalysts are required for stable that the land below the panels could be used for operation. Although the search for less expensive and agriculture. There will be a water supply pipe on the top rare catalyst materials continues, a long-term solution to of each panel to clean the PV panels from dust. The this problem is uncertain [32-34]. It is therefore reason for using concrete supports is its low cost, low suggested to use atmospheric pressure unipolar electroly- maintenance and long life. ser in the present system.

PV Panel Cteonlng System

PV Pane(

1.0 n ---~

Concrete S-tructur,

tV [ - 0,47 m

U-L~ U-LJ U_Lq U_L~ !

~ - - 4.2 m ' I i 13.14 m i

Fig. 7. PV panels, their suppor t s t ructure and agr icu l tura l farm.

176 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(~LU

(c) Compressor. The produced hydrogen needs to be scale distribution of hydrogen is by pipelines. It has been compressed (i), for onsite storage for onsite use and to suggested that existing natural gas pipelines might be level out the quantity of hydrogen delivered to the used for hydrogen transmission. Although natural gas pipeline, and (ii) to transport it long distance through pipelines are not optimized for hydrogen transmission, pipeline, in order to overcome the frictional drag on the it appears that a relatively small cost penalty would be flowing gas. incurred for this mismatch. Problems of hydrogen em-

There are two alternative compression strategies that brittlement and diffusion, which could be problematic can be pursued. One would be to pressurize the gas in converting some kinds of gas handling equipment moderately at the pipeline inlet and provide a number of to hydrogen, would not pose serious problems for booster compressors along the way. The alternative pipelines [37]. Embrittlement would not be a serious would be to provide a very high pressure at the pipeline problem under the modest temperature and pressure inlet to minimize the need for booster compressors. The conditions in pipelines. Compressors, valves, and other latter strategy is preferable and therefore recommended flow-modifying parts for which diffusion might be prob- for the proposed system due to the following two lematic would typically have to be replaced anyway reasons: firstly, there are clear scale economies for when a pipeline is converted to hydrogen, to accommo- compressors, so that one large compressor would tend to date the different fluid characteristics of hydrogen. Even- be less costly than an equivalent number of smaller units, tually, a dedicated hydrogen pipeline could be built Secondly~ the compressor work at the pipeline inlet along existing natural gas pipeline rights of way. As long could be provided by the low cost power from the PV as Pakistan is concerned there already exist a compre- array, whereas the booster stations in general would hensive pipeline system from natural gas reserves in have to rely on more expensive electricity from other Baluchistan to supply natural gas to the rest of the sources, country as shown in Fig. 8. As natural gas production

(d) Storage and distribution. There are many ways to in Baluchistan falls off, an increasing percentage of store hydrogen. For large scale storage the rec- PV-hydrogen could be mixed in with it. It should be ommended method is underground storage at about mentioned that the hydrogen transmission costs are 600-750 psi in aquifers, rock or salt caverns and depleted somewhat higher than those of natural gas due to oil and gas reservoirs. Such formations typically have higher compression cost resulting from hydrogen's very large capacities, large enough to store up to 10 PJ low density, but much lower than electricity trans- of hydrogen [35, 36]. Some such reservoirs would be mission costs both for overhead and underground available in the Baluchistan region, mode [38].

Hydrogen produced must be transported to the con- (e) Utilization. For Pakistan, it is convenient to break- sumption centers. Although it is possible on small scale down the hydrogen utilization into five, namely Power as pressurized gas in high pressure containers and as Sector, Domestic Sector, Transport Sector, Fertilizer liquid in insulated containers, the most economical large Sector and Industrial Sector.

/ . 1

f " r . l / '~

e, , . j k .' / s

L, \ L L / - / • .. ./ !~ " / ~ ' ~ " ~ ~ " j /

IRAN t.? LUCHISTAN / / l ./ '~-

' 2 %, ' . ..~ ~ SIND "~ E x i s t i n g pipeline A A , . . ~ A ~ , \ -- . t " " A S l a N - - ~ - ' " L ~ " . . . . ~" Extended pipeline . . . . . .

se'l - ~

Fig. 8. Existing natural gas pipeline system of Pakistan and its proposed extension for hydrogen transmission.


(i) Power Sector. (iv) Fertilizer Sector.

Hydrogen is the most suitable fuel for electricity About 30% of thePakis tan 'snaturalgasconsumption generation using fuel cells---which are not subject to is in the fertilizer sector to produce hydrogen through Carnot cycle limitations--with efficiencies (50-70%) steam reforming process, which in turn is converted into higher than any other fuel. At a location far away various types of chemical fertilizers. The use of electro- from the PV farms, it is more economical to produce lytic hydrogen instead, could lead to the conservation of hydrogen on site and transmit it through pipelines and natural gas resources. convert back to electricity using fuel cells at the point of (v) Industrial Sector.

use [39]. Hydrogen is being used in variety of industrial pro- (ii) Domestic Sector. cesses, e.g. hydrogenation of edible oil, oil refining,

electronics, glass production, pharmaceuticals, electric One of the basic energy needs in the domestic sector generator cooling and space industry [18, 34, 48].

is for cooking. Hydrogen, could be used in lieu of natural (f) Water desalination plant. In order to supply water gas in conventional gas cooking appliances [40, 41]. to electrolysers and for irrigation purposes, a water

Once the electricity is generated, using fuel cells, desalination plant would be required. There are many it could then be used for heating through electrical technologies available for sea water desalination, among resistance heaters, for cooling through conventional them the reverse osmosis is the most promising, because air-conditioning systems, and for heating and cooling of its lower energy consumption, the ease by which the through conventional reverse cycle air-conditioning plant could be scaled up and their quick installation. In systems, addition reverse osmosis is simple to automate and

Another, and perhaps more efficient way of achieving control, and require little supervisory or operational space cooling would be to use hydrogen in lieu of natural labour [49, 50]. gas in conventional absorption cooling systems after making some adjustments to the burners [42]. For large 4. SOLAR-HYDROGEN MODEL scale space heating hydrogen could be used instead of natural gas in steam boilers or more efficiently in an In order to find out the advantages (or the disadvan- Aphodid steam generator for producing circulating tages) of the proposed system, a model will be developed steam. For residential use it can be used in hydrogen to predict the future trends of important energy and flame burners or more efficiently in catalytic space economical parameters, with and without hydrogen heaters. Because of the presence of a catalyst such introduction. The following parameters are included as Platinum or palladium, in latter type, combustion in the model: population, energy demand (fossil + could be carried out at a low enough temperature so that hydrogen), energy production (fossil + hydrogen), gross there would be negligible NOx production and the national product, hydrogen introduction rates, fossil combustion products could be discharged directly into energy imports, world energy prices, environmental the heated space, resulting in a heating efficiency close to savings due to hydrogen introduction, savings due to the 100% [43]. higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen, by-product

credit, agricultural income, income from hydrogen sale, (iii) Transport Sector. photovoltaic cell area, total land area, water desalination

While hydrogen could supplant oil in virtually all its plant capacity, capital investment, operating and current end uses, transportation markets are particularly maintenance cost, total income from the system, important, since they account for about half of oil use environmental impact and quality of life. in Pakistan and more than one third of oil use world- In the following sub-sections, the interrelationships wide. Wide-spread use of PV-hydrogen could greatly for the above mentioned parameters will be developed. reduce fossil fuel use in response to the greenhouse 4.1. Population problem, as well as reduce dependence on oil.

Large amounts of research and experimental work Population of Pakistan, like many other developing have been done on the use of hydrogen in internal countries is increasing fast--at 3.1% per year. Knowing combustion engines for both surface and air transpor- the initial value of the population and the growth rate, tation. Hydrogen powered cars and buses have already the population at a later time can be estimated from the been built. The viability of a gaseous fuel infrastructure following relationship [51]: for transportation has been demonstrated in Italy, New Q,, = Q, ~ exp[ln2 At, W,/Oqo] (1) Zealand and Canada for vehicles operated on natural where gas [4447].

Various methods of on-board storage have been stud- Q, = Population at year t,; ied, such as pressurized gas, metal hydrides and liqiud Qn ~= Population at year t,_ 1; hydrogen. In Pakistan the diesel-electric locomotives At = t , - t , _ ~ ; could be converted into hydrogen-driven vehicles by W, = Population growth modifier for time interval utilizing the combination of compressed hydrogen in Atn; steel cylinders and fuel cells. Oqo = initial population growth doubling time.

178 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIROt3LU

The growth modifier IV, is a dimensionless function desires of the peoples to increase their standards of living given as the ratio of the doubling time at the initial year doubling time Oe, and can be expressed as follows [51]: to that at year n (IV,= O q o / O q n ). The purpose of 1/Oct= 1/Oe+ 1/Oq. (8) introduction of the growth modifier is to modify Oqo every year, since it is not a constant quantity, but varies It would be expected that energy consumption will be with time depending upon the socio-economic con- strongly influenced by the population growth modifier. ditions. Population, energy consumption, gross product The relation between energy consumption at the year t,, and environmental impact are the important indicators E,, and that at year t,_ 1, En-1, can be expressed as of the socio-economic conditions of an economy. Since follows: the growth modifier is a dimensionless quantity, it must be a function of dimensionless forms of the above E. = E. 1 exp[ln2 At. Wn[1/Oqo Vqn + l/Oeo Ve.] (9) mentioned indicators, which can be written as follows: where Vq. and Vo. are the dimensionless modifiers for the

doubling times Oqo and 0~o, respectively. As the popu- Crowding ratio, lation increases, the energy needs due to population

Qr. = Q. /Qo; (2) growth would increase at a slower rate than the population growth since the home and office volumes per

Gross product per capita ratio, person would decrease proportionately. Hence the modifier Vq would be a weak function of the population

Grq . --- G.Qo/GoQ,,; (3) ratio or crowding ratio as follows:

Environmental impact ratio, Vq. = Qr~. (10)

Pr. = P . /Po . (4) where x is assumed to be a very small number (x ~< 0.1). The energy demand growth doubling time due to the

It should be noted that the energy consumption ratio has efforts to improve the standard of living would tend to not been included since it is almost the same as the gross decrease with decrease in fossil fuel resources, since then product ratio.

The best general form of the correlation for IV. in more energy would be required for the resource extrac- tion. It would also tend to decrease with an increase in

terms of the above parameters can be written as follows energy consumption per capita. Also the world energy [51, 52]: price increase would cause Oe to increase. Consequently,

W = A _ B G ~ p b O ~ _ . b - - rq . - . . . . . C/[Grq,,Pr. Qr,,] (5) the doubling time modifier, V e, can be correlated in the following form:

where A, B, C, a, b and c are dimensionless constants. Using the statistical data available for the entire world lie. = C ~ ' n R r Z / E ~ q . (11) and some subregions, these constants were calculated by where Cr. is the ratio of composite fossil and hydrogen Eljrushi [52]. The following equation was obtained for energy prices, Rr. = R . / R o is the ratio of fluid fossil the growth modifier for the world, resources, and Erq. is the energy demand per capita

normalized with respect to its initial value. The expo- Ww,= 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 - 0.22GrqwPrwQr w - O.08/[GrqwPrwQrw]. (6) nents y, z and v are assumed to be very small (~<0.1). Since the above equation has been derived using the

4.3. Gross national product world's and large regions' data, its application to an individual country would lead to an over or underesti- Gross national product is a measure of the market mation of the country's parameters, depending on the value of a nation's total output of final goods and conditions of the country relative to those of the world, services. It is also accepted as a measure of a nation's So, the above equation has been modified in order to economic activity and income. It has a growth rate, in apply to Pakistan. The following equation has been general slightly higher than the energy consumption obtained [16]: growth rate. This difference could be attributed to the

continuous technological progress in improving energy 14/",=1.30 o.l 0.5 0.1 0.5 -O.081Grq,,Pr,,Qr,,-0"219/[G~q,,Pr, Qr,]- (7) conversion efficiencies and human productivity. The

relationship between the gross product G, at year t, and 4.2. Energy demand that at year t, ~, G,_ 1, can be expressed by following

The socio-economic development of a country entails exponential form [51]: rising levels of energy consumption. This is so because exp[ln2 At. W.{1/Oqo Vq. the process of development involves rapid expansion in G. = G. industrial and transport sectors, mechanization of agri- + 1/O.o V~. + 1/Ogo Vg.}] (12) culture, and increased use of household electrical gadgets due to the rise in income. Energy demand has shorter where Ogo is the initial growth doubling time component doubling time than population due to the desires of due to the technological improvements. It is related to peoples to improve their standards of living. Thus the the doubling times of population, energy demand and energy demand growth doubling time O.t should account gross product as follows: for the population growth doubling time O q and the l/Ogt= 1/Oq q-1/Oe'k-l/Og (13)


where Ogt is the total gross product growth doubling hydrogen production rate is given by the equation (15). time. The doubling time Og tends to decrease with increasing gross product per capita. Higher gross (b) If product per capita would promote research and develop- r/r/4. _> E. (21) ment activities to improve further and therefore increase then further the gross product. So the gross product doubling time modifier, Vg, could be expressed as follows: Fo. = 0 (22)

Vg. = 1/(Grq.) ~ (14) and

where the exponent u is assumed to be very small ( <<. O. 1). H. = E./qr (23)

4.4. Hydrogen introduction The hydrogen production rate in this case would follow the energy demand for the particular year.

Hydrogen will be introduced to the energy system of Pakistan in such a way that it will gradually replace the 4.5. Energy prices fossil fuels. The introduction rate has been chosen to be an exponential function as follows: Energy demand, income and the availability of energy

resources are the important factors affecting the energy /4. = H._ 1 exp[ln2 At./Oh.] (15) prices. An investigation of historical data shows that the

where H. and /4 . 1 are the hydrogen production rates, price of fluid fossil fuels can be correlated, in terms of in energy units, for years "n" and "n - 1" respectively, the above mentioned parameters as follows [52]: The doubling time Oh. is a variable doubling time of 0.2 .5 0.5 Crf. = 0.33 + 0.67G~w.F~q~./Rrw. (24) hydrogen introduction. Its equation is chosen in the following form: where Crr.(=Cf./Cfo) is the fossil fuel price ratio,

Oh. = C~ + C2(n - 1) (16) Grw.(=Gw./GWo) the world gross product ratio, Frqw. (= Fw. Qwo/Fwo Qw.), the world fossil fuel consump-

where C~ and C2 are constants so that their values would tion per capita ratio, and Rrw. (= Rw./Rwo), the world set different scenarios for accelerated or slower hydrogen fossil fuel resources ratio. introduction rates. Similarly the following relationship is obtained for the

The hydrogen produced is considered to be consumed world hydrogen energy prices [52]: locally, in order to reduce the fossil fuel consumption,

+ 0"8Gr~,.Frqw./H . . . . (25) which in turn reduces the imports of fossil fuels. Since Crh n = 0.2 0.2 o.4 03 the hydrogen production growth rate is taken to be

where Crh.(=Ch./Cho) is the hydrogen price ratio, and higher than the energy demand growth rate, then at a certain time in the future, all the local energy need would H~. ( = Hw./Hwo), the world hydrogen production ratio. be satisfied by hydrogen only. After this future time, In order to consider the proportionate effects of both hydrogen production growth rate will be assumed to be fossil and hydrogen energy prices, a composite energy the same as the energy demand (consumption) growth price ratio Crc . can be defined as follows [52]:

rate. Cry. = 7f. Crf. + ?h. Crh,, (26) These statements can be expressed in equation form as

follows: where 7r.(=Fw,/E~,,), the world fossil fuel consumption (a) If fraction, and 7h.(=qrHw./Ew.), the world hydrogen

consumption fraction. H.qr < E,, (17)

then 4.6. P V cell area and total land area

Total area of PV cells A~, is given by Hd.= H . (18)

Fd. = E . - q~H. (19) A~. = Ah. + Aw. (27)

and where

Fi. = Fo. -- Fp. (20) A~. = area of PV cells for hydrogen production; A~° = area of PV cells for desalination plant.

where In order to avoid shading of PV panels and to allow

Hd. = hydrogen demand at year t.; sunshine to reach land, some spacing would be left Fd. = fossil fuel demand at year t.; between the panels. The total land area of the plant Ao. Fp. = fossil fuel production at year t.; is given by Fi. = fossil fuel imports at year t..

Ap. = A¢./fl (28) Since a unit of hydrogen has a greater utilization

efficiency than a unit of fossil energy, the factor r h, where the term fl has been included to account for the utilization efficiency ratio, has been used. For this case unshaded area.

180 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIROQLU

The area of PV cells required to meet the total is taken as the ratio of cultivated land area, Aa., to the hyd:ogen production at year t. can be calculated from total plant a r e a Apn then the following equation: An. = l ap . . (35)

Ah. = H./qpv~leiSav (29) where 4.8. Environmental damage and benefits

One of the benefits in introducing the solar-hydrogen qpv = overall system efficiency of PV plant; energy system as a replacement of the present fossil fuel r/e ~ = efficiency of electrolyser; based energy system is the reduction in air pollution,

Say = average annual solar insolation per unit area acid rains and the greenhouse effect, which result in on PV panels, savings in environmental damage [53].

For the case of no hydrogen introduction the environ- In order to supply fresh water to electrolyser and for mental damage cost would be:

irrigation purposes, sea water will be desalinated using a reverse osmosis type desalination plant. Thus some De. = E.Cp (36) additional area of PV cells would be required to supply where electricity to the desalination plant.

De. = cost of environmental damage at year t.; if E. = energy consumption at year t.;

Wd. = total water demand at year t. in m 3 y 1; Cp --- environmental damage cost per unit energy of E~ = energy consumption by desalination plant in fossil energy consumed.

GJ m -3 After hydrogen introduction, the cost of environmental then damage would decrease, and it can be expressed as

Bw. = E, Wa. (30) Dh. = (Fd. + EH.)Cp (37)

and where

,4wn = Bwn/?lpvl'lregav (31) Dh. = cost of damage caused by hydrogen and fossil fuel at year t.;

where Fd. = fossil fuel consumption (demand) at year t.; E = ratio of pollution produced by hydrogen to

Bw. = total electrical energy required at year t n in G J; that by fossil fuels. r/r e = efficiency of rectifier.

The equation for savings in environmental damage, S0., 4.7. Water desalination plant capacity at year t. can be expressed as follows:

Water demand at year t., Wd. can be written as Se. = D e . - Dh. (38) follows:

o r

Wd. = Wh. + W~. (32) Se. = ,~H.Cp - eH.Cp. (39)

where

Wh. = water demand for hydrogen production; 4.9. Savings due to higher utilization efficiency ofhydro- W~. = water demand for irrigation, gen

There would be savings due to the higher utilization Wh. and Wi. can be calculated as follows: efficiency of hydrogen as compared to fossil fuels. This

Wh. = W1Hn (33) could be taken into account through fuel prices. The equation for this savings, Su., at year t. can be expressed

where as follows:

W l = water consumption by electrolyser per GJ of Su. = EnCfn- (H.Ch. + FdnCfn) (40) hydrogen produced and where

W~ = W2A.. (34) Cf. = the price of fossil fuels at year t.; where Ch. = the price of hydrogen at year t..

A~. = total cultivated area at year t.; 4.10. Credit for oxygen W 2 = annual water demand for irrigation per unit During the electrolysis of water for the production of

area. hydrogen, a valuable by-product oxygen is also pro-

It is assumed that some portion of the total plant area duced, which could be sold in local markets. If So. is the would be used for agricultural purposes, leaving some savings due to the credit for oxygen it can be written as

space for roads, columns of the concrete posts, etc. If 6 So. = Coll. (41)


where Table 4. Initial data for the world

Co = credit for oxygen per GJ of hydrogen pro- Symbol description Value Units

duced. Population, Qwo 5.2 × 109 person Energy demand, Ewo 28.12 × 101° GJ

4.11. Agricultural income Gross product, Gwo 20.19 × 10 ~2 US $ Annual income from the cash crops production from Fossil energy production, Fwo 27.8 x 10 ~° GJ

Fossil fuel reserves, Rwo 34.31 x I0 ~2 GJ the land under the PV panels can be expressed as Pollution production, Pwo 1.35 × 109 kg

la, = FAa, (42) Hydrogen energy production, Ho 3.2 × 109 GJ Population growth doubling

where time, Oqo 42 years

la, = annual income from cash crops; Energy consumption growth doubling time, Oct o 18 years

F = average income from cash crop production per Energy consumption doubling time unit area. for improving quality of life, Oeo 33 years

Gross product growth 4.12. Income from hydrogen sale doubling time, Ogto 15 years

Annual income from hydrogen sale can be expressed Gross product doubling time due to technological advances, Ogo 69 years

as Fluid fossil fuel price, Cfo 8.0 $ GJ- lhn = Ch .H n (43) Hydrogen energy price, Cho 22 $ GJ -1

Composite energy price, C¢o 8.34 $ GJ -1 where

lb. = annual income from hydrogen sale; then Ch. = hydrogen price at year t..

Npn : Ac./A p. (44) 4.13. Capital investment Also, if

Major components of the capital investment are concrete posts, PV cells, electrolysers, compressors, storage, C~ = cost of one post; pipelines and desalination plant. The correlations calcu- Cp. = capital requirement for constructing posts at lating the investment needed in each of the above year t°; components every year will be developed below: ANpn = new posts needed at year t.;

Concrete posts. As mentioned earlier, concrete posts = N p . - Np. 1 will be used to support the PV panels. New posts will be then constructed to accommodate the additional PV area each year. Co. = CIANp~ (45)

If PV cells. If

Ap -- PV cell area supported by each support; AAc. = new PV cells installed at year t.; Np~ : total number of posts at year t~; Cp~. = cost of PV cells per unit area at year t n;

Cp~. = total capital requirement for PV cells at year,

Table 3. Initial data for Pakistan t,;

Symbol description Value Units then

Population, Qo 110 x 106 person C w. = AAc, Cpcn. (46) Energy demand, Eo 9.4 x 108 GJ Electrolyser. If Gross national product, Go 52.48 X 1 0 9 US $ Fossil energy production, Fpo 7.14 x 108 GJ C 2 = capital cost of electrolyser per GJ of hydrogen Fossil fuel imports, F~o 2.25 x l0 s GJ produced; Fossil fuel reserves, R o 3.26 x 10 ~° GJ AH n = new hydrogen production Pollution production, Po 42.66 x 108 kg = H~ - H~ 1 Hydrogen energy production, H o 0 GJ Population growth doubling then

time, Oqo 22 years Energy consumption growth (?el . = C2AH (47)

doubling time, Oet o 10 years where Energy consumption doubling time

for improving quality of life. @,o 20 years C~1, = capital requirements for electrolyser at year t,. Gross product growth

doubling time, O~o 6.4 years Storage compression and transmission. If

Gross product doubling time due C3 = capital cost of storage, compression and trans- to technological advances, Og o 93 years mission per GJ of hydrogen,

182 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIROt~LU

Table 5. Photovoltaic-electrolysis system parameters lines and desalination plant. The relationships calcu-

Amorphous silicon solar cells lating the annual O & M cost for each of the above tilted at 25 °, fiat plate array components will be given here below: PV cell efficiency, qc = 18% P V cells. If

PV Array Balance of system efficiency, ~/b = 85% Overall PV system efficiency, qpv = 15% C5 = O & M cost per m 2 of PV cell area Life time = 30 years then

PV Array/ Opv, = CsAc~ (50) electrolyser

coupling Direct connection where

Atmospheric pressure, unipolar electrolyser Opv, = total O & M cost for PV cells at year t,. Rated voltage, Vei = 1.65 V

Electrolyser Efficiency of electrolyser, r/e I = 90% Electrolysers. If

Life time = 20 years C 6 = O & M cost ofelectrolysers per GJ of hydrogen produced

then then

Csn = C3AH (48) O e l n = C6H " (51)

where where

Cs, = total capital requirement for storage, com- Oel, = total O & M cost for electrolyser at year t,.

press/on and transmission at year t,. Storage, compression and transmission. If

Water desalination plant. If C7 = O & M cost of storage, compression and trans-

C4 = capital investment required for desalination mission per GJ of hydrogen, plant per m 3 of water

then

A m d . = Wd. - - Wdn 1 Osn = c 7 n " (52)

then where

Cd, = C4A Wd, (49) 0~, = total 0 & M cost for storage, compression and where Wd, has been defined in Section 4.9. transmission at year t,.

4.14. Operating and maintenance cost Water desalination plant. If

Major components of operating and maintenance cost C8 = 0 & M cost of water desalination plant per m 3 are PV cells, electrolysers, compressors, storage, pipe- of water

I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I f I I I I 1

. . . . - I ' - - - - ~ t - - - - - - - ' - I . . . . "1- . . . . t - - - - - - - - - ' 1 " . . . . "i- . . . . I I

- - ~ " , I i I . . . . I I I f - ~ . l

l . . . .

I I ~ . . . . + . . . . ~ I - - - - I . . . . ; ~ i l ~ l i l + . . . . ~ . . . . ~ 2000 I I / I I \ I

I I i I I \ I I I 1500 .... _L .... I__/___I .... i___~_L___i .... 1_ ....

:~ l l / l \l l - I I/ I N, I

I V I IX, I I =~ l o o o .... -T .... /I------I .......... l-'~---r .... I- .... - . I /I I I \

I J I I I \ I I = o . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070

YEARS

Fig, 9. Fossil fuels production rate projection of Pakistan.


I I I r" I I I I I I I I - - - - , - - - - - , - - - , - - - , - - - , - - - - , - - - - , - - - , . . . .

' |1 I I I I I I I 4oo-----..------.------.------.------.------.------.------. ....

- l I I I I I I I ~.~ . ~ 0 . . . . I - - - - - - - L - l - L - - - J - - - - / - - - I - - - / - - - / . . . . • . | I I I I I I I

" I ~ I I I 1 I I I .... ._----.------.------.------.----_.___.___. ....

- I~ I I I I I I I ~. 25o .... .___.___.___.___.___.___.___. ....

. I~ I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I 2oo .... .,----.------.------.------.------.----_.----_. ....

" I ~ I I I I I I I ~ .... .,__.___.___.___.___.___.___. ....

" I \ 1 I I I I I I

I I ~ ', I I I I I I I I I I I I

i n o 2oo., ~ ,~o ~ ,o~ ~ 2 o ~ ~ 2o,-~

YEARS

Fig. 10. PV Cells cost projection.

then relating the environmental impact to the fossil fuels and Oa, = Cs Wd, (53) hydrogen consumed can be written as follows:

where P, = U[Fd, + EHpn] (54)

Oa, = total O & M cost of desalination plant at where P, is the amount of environmental impact at the year t,. n th year, U is the pollution per unit of the fossil energy

consumed and E is the ratio of the environmental impact 4.15. Environmental impact resulting from use of hydrogen per unit energy to that

Environmental impact (due to pollution, acid rains produced by fossil fuels per unit energy. and the greenhouse effect) is mainly caused by the use of

4.16. Quality of life fossil fuels. Introduction of hydrogen in the energy sector to substitute for fossil fuels would result in The quality of life would increase with increase of reduction of the environmental impact. The equation gross production. However, it will decrease with increase

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

25 . . . . . ~ . . . . . F . . . . . f . . . . . + . . . . . + . . . . . ~ . . . . . Jf . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Lkl I I I I I I I I • I ! I I I I I I I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' - ' - l : : : - - - - " . . . . . " . . . . . " . . . . . .

I ! I I I l I ' ~ I I I I

I I I I I I , , , ~ " . ~ , : : ', : I I I I I I I I 1o . . . . . ,- . . . . . ,- . . . . . , . - - - ; , - ' ~ . - i ~ ' - - - " . . . . . l . . . . . • . . . . . i, . . . . . .: . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

5 . . . . I " . . . . . t " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I . I I I I I I I !

I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1

/ I I I I I I I I I

Fig. 11. Doubling time of hydrogen production vs time.

184 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(3LU

~ , eh ffi 2.0 +0.2(n-l) i i • ~,, : z.o + o.25(, - ~)i' ": : ~ ' '

I I I I ~ - - T - - - - T - - - -

| i ~ o o

o i o o ~ i o

° i ~ i o i o | o |

| o i o t ~ o o

o | o i ° o

i 0 ~ ° ~ i i i i 0 3

° i | ° i i i ° i i 0 i , ! i I °

' " .......................... i i i ~ o ~ o o ~

o o o i o o o o |

~ 0 i '

100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . a

1 1

t t

! I 1900 2005 2020 2035 2060 20 (15 20 (10 ~ 2110

Fig. 12. Population projection for Pakistan.

in population and increase with environmental impact, and/or computed using the applicable relationships, and Using these factors in dimensionless form, the quality of are summarized in Tables 3 and 4 respectively. life indicator, Lr,, can be expressed as follows: Three different rates of hydrogen doubling time were

Lr, , -~ Gr , , /Qr , ,Pr , , (55) chosen, to show the effect of the hydrogen introduction on population, energy demand, gross production, pol-

where Gr,(= G , , / G o ) is the gross product normalized with lution, etc. respect to its initial value. Oh, = 2.0 + 0.2(n -- 1) (56)

5. DATA AND COMPUTATION Oh, = 2.0 + 0.25(n -- 1) (57)

Taking the year 1990 as the initial year, the future Or~ = oo. (58) trends of the parameters described in Section 3 have been studied. The differential time interval At was taken as The doubling time given by equation (56) represents the one year. The initial conditions for Pakistan and the fastest hydrogen introduction rate followed by a slower world, for the year 1990, were taken from references introduction rate as given by equation (57). The case

• Ol in = 2 . 0 + O~2,(rl - 1 )

• ~ ffi 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1 )

- ! . . . . . . . .

i ..... r . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . , I , , / l J _ . - . 4 , . - - " - - ~ 7 - - T - - ;

. . . . . . . . L . . . . . . . . L . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , , t

10 ( ] 00 . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . s I J i | i t i i i i a i i u | | i i i M i i i | i i i i i i I t J i t | i i

5000 . . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 ' 1

19110 2005 2020 2035 2060 2065 20eO 201 )5 2110

Fig. 13. Energy demand projection for Pakistan.


• O h = = 2 " O + O ' 2 ( n ' l ) i i

• oh, = 2.0 + 0 . 2 5 ( , - ~) i i • a e ~ = ® : l

5000 L . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . .~ . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . ( / ) i ~ .

• i i i I i i i i

: : : : I i i i

: : : : , ,

: : : : i : :

! i i - ~ ' ~ - - ~ - ~ " - i

' ' i i i ] i : I l : : : : : :

2000 . . . . . . . . L . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1000 . . . . . . ' ' , . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . n . . . . . . . . u . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . .

l ggO 200~ 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2110

W A R S

Fig. 14. Gross national product per capita vs time.

with doubling time equals to infinity corresponds to no The technical characteristics and different assumptions hydrogen introduction or all fossil fuel system, used for various parameters of the PV-electrolysis sys-

It has been assumed that solar-hydrogen production tern are summarized in Table 5 [18, 19, 55]. will start at the year 2000 with the initial hydrogen The utilization efficiency ratio/'/r, included in equation production rate given as follows: (17) (hydrogen utilization efficiency divided by fossil fuel for utilization efficiency) is taken as [51]

1990 ~< t < 2000 H~ = 0 (59) ~/r = 1.36. (62)

for The environmental impact coefficients U and E in t = 2000 H, = 32 x 106 GJ yr ~ (60) equation (27) are taken as [51]:

Average annual global insolation in Baluchistan is U = 4.74 kg GJ i of fossil fuels; (63) 7.03 GJ m - : yr-~. The average annual insolation on the PV panels tilted equal to the site's latitude has been E = 0.04. (64) calculated using Liu and Jordan correlation [54], i.e.

As mentioned in Section 1.2, with the present expo- S a y = 7.61 GJ m ~ yr -1. (61) nential growth rate of fossil fuel consumption, the

• E n e r g y Demand

• H y d r o g e n E n e r g y P r o d u c t i o n

• F~. F.e ~od t . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . ! ~ . . . . . . . . i t 8 , 20+ : : i i i i i i M

2 , 5 0 0 0 J i i i t i

20000 . . . . . . . . (- . . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . , , . . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . . . . .

~ , , , : : : : , , , , , , : : i i i i i i , i ,

I~000 ........ I" ........ t ........ f ................................................

10000 . . . . . . . . - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . I z I J I I z I Z I I I | z I * I Z z I I I • I I Z M I I

i

e i i i I i i i

| i i i i

10110 2005 2020 2035 2050 20~ 2080 201 )5 2110

~ 4 R S

Fig. 15. Energy demand, hydrogen energy production and fossil energy demand (accelerated hydrogen case).


• E n e r ~ Demand

• H y d r o g e n E n e r g y P r o d u c t i o n

~ 0 0 0 - t . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . ~ - ~ . . . . . . . . . • F o s s i l F u e l D e m a n d , ,

O h , = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1 ) ,' ,' ,' , , , l i i

, , , i i i i i i

i i i l

, . i , i i | | i .,~.~ 2 0 0 0 0 . . . . . . . . [- . . . . . . . . I- . . . . . . . . I, . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . .

' ' LI! i i i

I I I I I I I I 1 5 0 0 0 . . . . . . . . ,: . . . . . . . . L, . . . . . . . . I., . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . . . . . I ' _ . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . ' . . . . . . . .

! i 1

10000 . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . 1, i i i , | , i i , ¢ , | i , i

. . . . . . . . i. . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . , t i i i i i , I i

1990 2005 2020 203~ 2060 20 (15 2080 2005 2110

Fig. 16. Energy demand, hydrogen energy production and fossil energy demand (slow hydrogen case).

present proven reserves of Pakistan would last only 21 term fl as mentioned in equation (30) has been calculated years. Even if new discoveries should result in doubling as [16]: the reserves, this period would increase by only 8 years. However, it is not likely that such exponential growth # = 0.34. (65) would continue until a resource is totally depleted. Instead a symmetrical production curve with an expo- It has been assumed to use a reverse-osmosis type nential growth and decline, the two curves being arbi- desalination plant with its energy consumption per m 3 of trarily connected by a smooth peak, should be employed, fresh water, El, given as follows [49]: For such symmetrical production function, the peak in production occurs when a reserve is half exhausted, not E] = 2.016 x 10 -z GJ m -3. (66) at the depletion of reserve [56]. Figure 9 shows such a symmetrical production curve for the fossil fuel pro- The efficiency of the rectifier, r/re, to be used in the duction rate, F o, for Pakistan. desalination plant has been taken as,

In order to avoid the shading of the PV panels, and provide 50% sunshine for the land underneath, the r/r e = 0.93. (67)

• . . o 2o ÷ 0 2 ( . i i i i ! i I • Oh . = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - l ) [ I I

o= I - = -- : -- = T

,-.20000

Fig. 17. Effect of hydrogen introduction on fossil fuel demand.

otto.1 SA (ose0 ua$oap,~q paleaOlg~e ) uo!lanpoad l~nJ l!SSOj pue slJodtu! SlOnj I!SSOj 'puetuop £1/aOU~l '6I "girl

0LLg ~ 0 ¢ 0 ~ 0 ¢ ~ 0 ¢ ~ ~ 0~t0¢ g 0 O ¢ ~ I I L

. . . . . . . . t . . . . . . t . . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . . . . . . . . ' 0 ~ , , , I l I I

. . . . . . . . . , " . . . . . . . . , " . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . "~ . . . . . . . . O 0 0 0 t

. . . . . . . . . I- . . . . . . . . I- . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 ~ t

' . . . . ' i_/__! i i i . . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . I" . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . I" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0000~

, , , , , , , , ,,,,, ,,,,, i , ,,, , , , ,, -, .

. . . . . . . . , _ . _ _ _ , _ . _ . ~ ~ _ . _ . _ . . _ , _ . . . . _ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _ . ~ ~ ~ ~ o , , ~ o ~ , ~ ,oo~ . . o , , 0 ~

l a o d u l l I o n : ] L ' T s s o ~ ] *

p u m u ~ ( l ~ s a t r ~ •

(gL) 00L$ = ~D (IL) , fO ~;9'015 = dD

:[65 'LS] s~ pglem!lsg uo~q seq 's~eg£ :[8] S~OllOJ se ua~tm 001 JO otu!l oJ![ g ql!Ax 'lsod ol~Jouoo qolza JO lsoo gq.L uooq sl3q slonj l!ssoj jo lsoo ol]etu~p lm, uotuuo.i!AUO [~lOL

(tzL) "~tu 817 = dV (0L) "9"0 = q

:s,¢,OlIO J s~ uo~Iel s~ :[65] se UO>lel s~ • (LO UOTlenbo u! p snq.L "uo!leA!lln3 .loj posn oq plnoAx

' dv ' l sod oloaouoo tpeo Xq polaoddns eoae ilOO Ad oq.L eoae lueld Ad ImOl oql jo %09 leql potunssl~ uooq seq 1I

(EL) '~ tu~I~0I x figs = d (69) "~ J,~z tu~Ictu~01 x l r ' l l = : ~

:[85 '£5] S~OllOJ s~ :[85 'ES] s~olloJ se uo>lel uooq seq u~tm uo~q seq '3 ':tu~l ~od otuo3u! l~nuu~ o~eagAe ~qdL ':A,I 'eoae l!un aod UOTle~!~! Joj puetuop a01eA~ i e n u u v

(EL) "ZHJ° t - f D 58'I$ = °D (89) < H J ° I fD ,]ol'e~ jo ctu c_0[ x £9 = IA, l

:[6I] se ua>Iel u~x I seq °D 'po3npoad :[L5 '61] 'se ug~Im s! '~.4t 'pg3npo~d uo~oap£q jo fD aod uoi~£xo .toj l!poao lonpoJd-,~q oqAL uo~oap£q jo fD aod aos£1o~13OlO £q uo!ldmnsuoo .~Ol~A~

• otu!l SA (0Se3 u0$oapgq-ou) uo!lanpoad lonj [.tssoj pu~ slaodtu! slon J i!ssoj 'puemop £~'aou~ "81 ~!d

0 t L~ gSO~ OGO¢ g g O ¢ OgO¢ g ¢ O ~ 07,0¢ gOO¢ ~ ( I L

. . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . .

I ~ ~ I I / / I : , I I t I I

. . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . I I . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 ~

i i , ¢ , i i i , = , t i ,

. . . . . ' ; I I t i , | i | i i i

O00GL "11 , , , , o o ~ o -

N , , , , , , , , , , I ; ~ ; I

. . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oooo~ !

J . . . . . . . . & . . . . . . . . L . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . [ . . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . l . . . . . . . . 1 u o l l z ' n p o a d l a n ~ l I tSSOrl •

/ ! ! I

LSI NVISDIVd NOd LrdfllDD_'dZSV'tldNl ArD~I~IN~]


• E n e r g y D e m a n d

• F o s s i l F u e l I m p o r t

f . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . ! . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . • F o s s i l F u e l P r o d u c t i o n | |

O h = 2 . 0 + 0 2 5 { n - 1 " I , , , ~ { ~

. . . . : i iii:::ijiii :i:il * , , , | * , i , | | , , , , | , , t , , , , i , , | , I *

. .~K 2 0 0 0 0 . . . . . . . . I. . . . . . . . . I. . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

!ii]i G~ * , , , , i , | , , i , | * , , * | , , , * , *

1 5 0 0 0 I" , I" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . . . . . . x . . . . . . . . a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

, ~ | , | t , , , , , | , , ¢ J , | , , | ,

1 0 0 0 0 . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . , , , : , , : , , | , . ,

* i , , :

: i ', i 1 . . . . . 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 5 0 2 0 6 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 9 5 2 1 1 0

Fig. 20. Energy demand, fossil fuels imports and fossil fuel production (slow hydrogen case) vs time.

The cost of the PV cell per m 2, C~,, has been taken from The annual operating and maintenance cost per m 2 of the Fig. 10, which shows the cost projection of PV cells PV cell area, C5 is taken as, [18, 19]: per unit area [16, 18, 22, 60].

Capital cost of electrolyser per GJ of hydrogen pro- Cs = $0.45 m -2 of PV cell area. (79)

duced, C~ is taken as [19]: The annual O & M cost per GJ of hydrogen produced, C2 = $2.25 GJ ] of H 2. (76) C 6 and C7 required for electrolyser and storage, corn-

With a lifetime of about 30 years, the capital cost for pression and transmission, respectively, is given as fol- storage, compression and transmission per GJ of hydro- lows [18, 19]:

gen produced, C3 is taken as [19]: C 6 = $0.45 GJ - l of H 2 (80)

C 3 = $1.38 GJ I of H2. (77) C7 = $0.74 GJ ~ of H 2. (81)

Capital investment required for desalination plant per m 3 of water, with a life time of 30 years, (?4 is given as The annual O & M cost required for desalination plant follows [49, 50]: per m 3 of water, C8, is taken as [49, 50]:

C4 = 0.4 m -3 of water. (78) C8 = $0.3 m 3 of water. (82)

~ • F o s s i l

' ~ I ~ . H y d r o g e n

~. ' , . _ ~ _ l I I l I I I I

i i i I ! l . - x ~ - x I I i i # I I - " I - - i - - l I I I _ I ~,- ~ I ~ _ _ _ _ _ ! _ _ _ _ I i I i i i i I I l i I I I I i l i i i i i I i

v ~ 1 5 . . . . . . . , - . . . . . ~ - - - . , . . . . . . , . . . . . . , . . . . . .

i i i I i i i i i i i i l l I I I I I i I i

I I I I I I I I i I i I i i i i i i i I I i I I I

1 0 . . . . . ~- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . . i i i I ! l I I I I I I

I . - i . _ , _ _ • _ _ , . _

I l l I l l f I I i i I I I I I I I ! I ! I I I

. . . . t . . . . . ~ . . . . . " . . . . . : . . . . . * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . /

! ! ! i

I 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 5 0 ~ 2 0 1 0 2 0 9 5 2 1 1 0

Y E A R S

F i g . 2 1 . H y d r o g e n a n d f o s s i l f u e l p r i c e p r o j e c t i o n .


1 1 1 1 1 1 1 • en, = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1 ) : ,' : I ,' ,' ,'

• o h . = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( ) i i i i i t * n ' l - i I I I I _ ~

~ r m . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . ~ . . . . . ÷ . . . . . ÷ . . . . . ~ - ~ . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

300 . . . . . L . . . . . I . . . . . . J . . . . . . J . . . . . . J . . . . . . .L . . . . . d . . . . . J . . . . . . ~ , l I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I

2 2 5 . . . . . ~- . . . . . ¢- . . . . . 4- . . . . . ÷ . . . . -~ . . . . . , i . . . . . 4 . . . . . ,4 . . . . . . I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

i I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I

I~I0 . . . . . r . . . . . I " . . . . . T . . . . . 1" . . . . . "T . . . . . "V . . . . . ~t . . . . . "1 . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I

7 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I I l l I I I I I i I 1 i I

_ _. _- 1

Fig. 22. Savings due to higher utilization eflSciency of hydrogen vs time.

The equations (1) through (55) presented in Section 4 are plotted for the three different scenarios discussed equations (56) through (82) presented in this section earlier to show the effect of hydrogen introduction rate were programmed for a VAX 8650 computer [16]. Using into the energy system on the following parameters: the initial data presented in Tables 3 and 4, compu- population, energy demand (fossil + hydrogen), energy tations have been carried out for two hydrogen introduc- production (fossil + hydrogen), gross product, fossil en- tion scenarios in order to calculate the solar-hydrogen ergy imports, world energy prices, environmental savings energy system parameters for Pakistan for years 1990 due to hydrogen introduction, savings due to the higher through 2110. In addition one set of calculations were utilization efficiency of hydrogen, by-product credit, carried out for no hydrogen introduction, namely for agricultural income, photovoltaic cell area, total land an all fossil fuel case for comparison with the area, water desalination plant capacity, total capital solar-hydrogen energy system, investment, total operating and maintenance cost, total

net income from the system, environmental impact and

6. RESULTS A N D DISCUSSION quality of life. Figure 11 shows the doubling times variations for

The results of the solar-hydrogen energy system the accelerated and the slow hydrogen introduction model developed are presented in Figs 11-42. The results cases. Figure 12 presents the population projection for

• Oh. = 2.0 + 0.2(n - 1) [ ; ; ; i " ; I I ! I I I

t I I ! • O h , = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1 ) t I ; i

~ o o . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . F . . . . . ~ . . . . . ÷ . . . . . k . ' ~ - ~ - - t . . . . . 4 . . . . . .

I ! I I t I I I

.... i_/,,, i i J I I ! I I I I I

2 5 0 . . . . . L . . . . . I . . . . . . J. . . . . . J. . . . . . J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I I I I I I

• I I I I I I I I * | I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I

2 0 0 . . . . . 6. . . . . . ~. . . . . . k . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . / i / i i . . . . i i ' I I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 5 0 . . . . . I - . . . . . r . . . . . 1- . . . . . 1- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

! I I I I I I I ' I I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 0 0 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

' ' i J i i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I

5 o . . . . . F . . . . . ,L . . . . . F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 9 9 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 5 0 ~ 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 5 2 1 1 0

YEARS

F i g . 2 3 . Environmental savings vs time.


• oh. - 2.0 + o.z(n - 1) : 1 ' • oh~ = 2 .0 + O . ~ ( n - l ) l ' ,

I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I 1

I - I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

20 . . . . . i - . . . . . e,. . . . . . ~. . . . . . ,i. . . . . .l. . . . . 4. . . . . . 4 . . . . . ,4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

- I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I ! ! I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

10 . . . . . I - . . . . . i . . . . . . ,I. . . . . ,I; - - - . I . . . . . . 4. . . . . . ,.¢ . . . . . 4 . . . . . .4 . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

• I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1990 2005 2020 2038 2080 2065 20eO 2085 2110

~.NtS

Fig. 24. By-product credit for oxygen vs time.

Pakistan. For the case of no hydrogen introduction energy demand would reach a maximum of 22,000 PJ population would stabilize at 485 million about the year about the year 2075, and thereafter would remain con- 2070. This is about 4.4 times that of the 1990 value. This stant. The introduction of hydrogen, whether at acceler- is in fair agreement with the World Bank estimate, which ated or at slower rate would not have any profound projects a stabilized population of about 500 million [11]. effect on energy demand, until after 2030. For the both If hydrogen is introduced at an accelerated rate the cases a higher plateau of steady-state would be reached population would reach about 5 times that of the initial with the energy demand about 33 times that of the initial year about the year 2080, and thereafter would remain year around 2080 to 2095, depending on the rate of nearly constant. The slower hydrogen introduction rate hydrogen introduction. This increase in energy con- would delay this effect by about 15 years. The increase sumption is due to the increase in population and the in population could essentially be attributed to the growth in the standard of living. cleaner environment, which would result from the intro- Figure 14 shows gross national product per capita in duction of the solar-hydrogen energy system. 1990 U.S. $. It can be seen that the gross product per

Figure 13 gives the energy demand (or consumption) capita would stabilize at about $4,800 for the hydrogen projection, and the effect of hydrogen introduction on case---about $1,100 more than that of no-hydrogen case. energy demand. If no hydrogen is introduced, the annual This increase is mainly caused by higher utilization

• e~. : 2.o + o .2 ( . - ]/ [ ,; ,; ,; ,; ,; ,; ! I ! ! I I I

• Oh~ = 2 .0 + 0 .25 (n - l ) , i i m m i i

~ o . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . I- . . . . . ~ . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . t - - - ~ . . . . . . ! I I ! ! !

~.~ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I

25 . . . . . L . . . . . 1. . . . . . & . . . . . J. . . . . . J. . . . . . .1 . . . . . J . . . . . J . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I

l I | I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ¢ I I I I I I I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I l I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

15 . . . . . le . . . . . s" . . . . . '1- . . . . . t . . . . " r . . . . . I ' . . . . . ,.t . . . . . ,.t . . . . . . I I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I

10 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . T . . . . . T . . . . . • . . . . . 1 . . . . . I . . . . . . I I ! I i i i I I I I I ! i i i i I I i i I I I I i i I ! I i i

5 . . . . . E . . . . . ,L . . . . . f . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I | I I I I I I I I , i i i i i

Fig. 25. Agricultural income vs time.


; ; ; ; ; ', • O h , = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1 ) i t I I t ,

I ! ! I • = 2.0 + 0 . 2 , ( ° - , ) : : [

I I I | I I I I !

1 1 1 0 . . . . . t,- . . . . . r . . . . . 'l- . . . . . 1' . . . . . 1 ' . . . . . ..t . . . . . '1 . . . . . ~ . . . . . . ! I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

4 4 , 1 2 0 . . . . . t - . . . . . o- . . . . . ~- . . . . . 4. . . . . . . . . . . . t . . . . . 4 . . . . . '4 . . . . . . i I I o I I 1 I i I I ! I I I i I i I I I I I I I I I I I i I i 1 i I I I i I I I I I I ! I I i I I I I I I I I

I X ) . . . . . I - . . . . . l - . . . . . i,. . . . . . ~. . . . . . 4. . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . .4 . . . . . . ! I I I I I I I ¢ I I I t I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I ! ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I

4o . . . . . . . . . . . t . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I

1 : - I I 1 ~ 1 0 2 0 0 5 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2 1 1 0

Fig. 26. Income from hydrogen sale vs time.

efficiency and much lower environmental damage of the energy. Slower introduction of hydrogen would result in solar hydrogen energy system, higher peak of about 9,000 PJ around the year 2040 and

Figures 15 and 16 show the energy demand (consump- the fossil energy requirement would be eliminated by the tion), hydrogen energy production and fossil energy year 2070. For the case of no hydrogen case, the fossil demand for the accelerated and slow hydrogen introduc- energy demand would reach its stabilized value of about tion cases respectively. As can be seen from Fig. 15, 22,000 PJ around the year 2080. hydrogen energy production would catch the energy Figures 18, 19 and 20 show the effect of hydrogen demand by the year 2050, after which the country would introduction on fossil fuel imports. For the total fossil be independent of fossil energy. Slower introduction of fuel energy system (no-hydrogen case), the annual fossil hydrogen would delay this effect by about 20 years as fuel imports would reach its steady state value of about can be seen from Fig. 16. 22,000 PJ around the year 2080, as can be seen from

Figure 17 presents the effect of hydrogen introduction Fig. 18. If hydrogen is introduced at an accelerated rate, on fossil energy demand. For the accelerated hydrogen the peak fossil fuel imports of about 3,500 PJ yr- l would introduction case the annual fossil energy demand would reach around 2035, and by the year 2050 the country reach to 5,100 PJ around the year 2030 and by the year would become independent on fossil fuel imports as 2050 the country would no longer depend on fossil shown in Fig. 19. Domestically produced fossil fuels

; ; i i I • o.. = zo + o.2(~- 1) : : : : : • O h n = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1 ) : : : :

~ " 2 5 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . f . . . . . f . . . . . ÷ . . . . . ~t . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . q . . . . . . I I I

( / ~ I I I I ! I , , | I I

i ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 5

i ,° 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . . . .

! I ! ! I I I s ! I I I ! I I I I ! I I I I I I ! I

. . . . . i i '

F i g . 27. Total P V c e l l area vs time.

192 N. L U T F I A N D T. N . V E Z I R O ( 3 L U

• Oh. = 2.0 + 0 .2(n- 1) [ ; [ * l s

_-.::-'oLo2:. ::_ [ * - r . . . . . . . . . f . . . . . . . . # . . . . . . . . . . .

i i , i , , , fl f I I I e i , e , I , , , / I,¢ I I I i l i | l i i J , J i ; l i

~, i i J a J J i |

........ I ' . . . . I" ........ l- , I ........ I I I ........ 4. l I ........ ~i]~[i] ]]]i [[[[ ]] ]i] i] ] i [ []iI I I ....... l * I ....... I ........ 4 I I ......... ; ; ' ' ' , i | , i , i i | i | i J , , i

i | i / i , , I , T I / I I I I

. . . . l . i l_,i i i i i ! i i I i i i i l i l i i a i i i a a

I i i i | i | , i . . . . . . . " F . . . . . . . . ~, . . . . . . . . f . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

i i i I i i l i

i ~ i i i i , i , , i i i , i , i i , I 1 i i l i , i , i i i i ,

. . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . . e . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . l . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . .

i I i i i , i

i i i i i , i

, o . . . . . . . . , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '

: 1 I I . - I

1990 2008 2020 2035 2060 2065 2080 20~S 2110

F i g . 2 8 . T o t a l P V p l a n t a r e a v s t i m e .

would be needed till the year 2065 at continuously Figure 23 presents the annual savings from avoidance decreasing rates. If hydrogen is introduced at the slower of environmental damage due to the replacement of rate, the peak fossil fuel import would reach a higher fossil fuels by solar hydrogen. When the steady-state value of 8,000 PJ yr-~ around the year 2040 as can be conditions are attained, the annual savings reach $315 seen from Fig. 20. This would delay the independence billions. from imported energy by 20 years. Figure 24 gives the oxygen by-product credit, which

Figure 21 shows both the fossil and hydrogen energy would generate about $42 billion per year by the end of priced projections. It shows that the hydrogen energy the next century. would start competing with fossil energy by the year Figure 25 shows the income from the production of 2010. It should be noted that if we include utilization cash crops, which will be grown under the photovoltaic penalty, and cost of environmental damage to the cost panels. This income would reach about $29 billion per of fossil fuels, hydrogen would be cheaper by 1995. year by the year 2095. It could be increased by having

Figure 22 shows the savings due to higher utilization double crops per year. efficiency of hydrogen. By the end of the next century Figure 26 shows the annual income from the this saving would become around $380 billion per year. domestic sale of hydrogen. This income would reach

• Oha = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1 ) i I; t[ o; ;

i ' ' • o,, = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1) 1 , , i I I I I

' i s . . . . . r . . . . . . . . . . F . . . . . f . . . . . t . . . . . # - - - - - ~ g - ~ j = 4 - ' ~ . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i i i I i I i i I I I I I

i I I I I I I i 100 . . . . . 1- . . . . . L . . . . . L . . . . . i . . . . . . J. . . . . J. . . . . . . I . . . . . .1 . . . . . . I I I I I I I I i I I i i i I I I I i i i i i i i i i ! i ! i I i i i i i i i I I i i ! i i i

75 . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . • . . . . 4 ' . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . . I I I I l l I I

i I I I ! I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

__ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I i i I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

F i g . 2 9 . W a t e r d e s a l i n a t i o n p l a n t c a p a c i t y v s t i m e .

E N E R G Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E F O R P A K I S T A N 193

, e , . = 2.0 + o . 2 ( n - 1) i ; ; ; ; ; ; I I I I I I

• e , . = 2.o + 0.25(n- 1]', : ', : : [ l I I I I I I

25 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . I- . . . . . I ' - - - x - ' l " . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . . I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I l I I I I l l I I I i 1 I I I I I

20 . . . . . I . . . . . . • . . . . . J . . . . . . J , . ,L . . . . . . . ,1. . . . . . . I . . . . J . . . . . . , i I I I I I I , , i I I i I i i i i I I I i i i I l I I l I I I I l I i I l I

1 5 . . . . . i- . . . . . e- . . . . . c- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I

-- I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I

10 . . . . . r ' . . . . . r . . . . . t . . . . T . . . . . " r . . . . . "lr . . . . . " I . . . . . 1 . . . . . . i I I I I I I i l I l l I I I I I I I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Fig. 30. Capital requirements for PV cells vs time.

about $180 billion per year by the end of the next capital requirements for the accelerated hydrogen case century, would reach to about $25 billion by the year 2045. The

Figures 27 and 28 present the total PV cell area and slower introduction of hydrogen would result in lower the total land area requirements for the PV plant peak of about $20 billion by the year 2065. The reason respectively, as a function of time. About 22,000 km 2 of for this lower peak is due to the slower increase in PV PV cell area would be required when the system reaches cell area requirement, and due to continuous decrease of its stabilized conditions by the end of the next century. PV cell cost. For the accelerated hydrogen introduction The corresponding land requirement would be case, there are two other peaks around the year 2075 and 64,000 km 2. This is about 8% of the total area of 2105. These are due to the fact that the PV cell lifetime Pakistan or 17% of the area of Baluchistan. has been assumed to be 30 years, and therefore the

Figure 29 gives the water desalination plant capacity replacement of old PV cells would have to be included. vs time. As can be seen from the figure, the capacity of Similar trend can be seen for the slower hydrogen the desalination plant would reach 125 x 10 6 m 3 day-L introduction case. by the end of the next century. Figure 31 shows the annual capital requirements for

Figure 30 shows the annual capital requirements for the construction of the concrete posts. The peak capital the PV cells. As can be seen from the figure, the peak requirements for the accelerated hydrogen introduction

• ohm= 2 .0t -0 .2 (n-1) i ; ; ; ; ; I ! ! !

• o~. = 2.o + o.25(~ - 1)', ,: : ,' ,' 1 I I I

, 2 . . . . . r . . . . . . . . . . . r . . . . . t - - t - * . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . ~ . . . . . . I I I I I I I a I I e I i I I I I I I I i I I I I I I I

10 . . . . . L . . . . . J . . . . . . L . . . . . ~ . - J . . . . . . .L . . . . . .L . . . . . . t . . . . . . J . . . . . I I I ! I I I t I I I I I I I I I

, ~ I I I I I I I I | i I I I I | i I I I I I I I I

~ E I I t I I I t I I I l I I I I I

0 I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I

~'~ 15 . . . . . I - . . . . . r . . . . . t - . . . . . . . . . . . . ,It . . . . . - I . . . . . - i . . . . . . I I ! I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i I I I I I I I I I I

¢ . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r - - - i - - - 1 . . . . . 1 . . . . . 1 . . . . . .

I I I I | ! I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

2 . . . . . I- . . . . . I- . . . . . -I, . . . . . -I . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Fig. 31. C a p i t a l r e q u i r e m e n t s for c o n c r e t e p o s t s vs t ime.

194 N. L U T F I A N D T. N. V E Z I R O I 3 L U

• e,. = 2.0 + o.2(.- 1) ; ; ; ; ; ; ! ' , : ' ,

• oh. = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1) [ J , , I I I I

..... F ..... F ..... ,~ ..... F ..... + ..... :~ ..... l-~---l-=~-q ...... I i ! I i I I i i I I I I

i i I I i I i . . . . . L . . . . . I . . . . . . k . . . . . ,t. . . . . .IL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9 a i I I I I " - [ ~ - ' l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

i 2 . 0 . . . . . 6" . . . . . 6- . . . . . ~. . . . . . 4. . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . -4 . . . . . . I i i I I i i i I i 1 I I I i I i i I I I i ! ! I I I I I i i I i I i I I I I i i i i

1 . 5 . . . . . s- . . . . . t " . . . . . f . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 ' . . . . . - t . . . . . - t . . . . . - t . . . . . . I I I I I i i i i I I i ! i ! i I I i I i ! I I I I i i I I I I I I I i I I I I i i i

1 . 0 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . v . . . . T . . . . . T . . . . . • . . . . . "1 . . . . . "1 . . . . . . I I I I i I I I I i I I i i I I i I I i I I i I ! I i I I i I l i i

. . . . . !" . . . . . i . . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . . ! ...... i I i i i i i i

I O Q O 2 0 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 5 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 8 0 2 0 0 5 2 1 1 0

Fig. 32. Capital requirements for electrolysers vs time.

case would reach to about $12 billion per year by Figure 33 presents the annual capital requirements for the year 2045. The slower introduction of hydrogen the storage, transmission and compression of hydrogen. would delay this effect by 20 years, and result in a For the accelerated hydrogen case the annual capital re- lower peak of about $9.4 billion. Since the lifetime of quirements would reach about $1.3 billion followed by two concrete post has been assumed to 100 years a slight peaks of about $1.4 billion each with an interval of 30 increase in capital requirements can be seen around the years. Slower introduction of hydrogen has similar trends. year 2100. Figure 34 gives the annual capital requirements for

Figure 32 shows the capital requirements for the water desalination plant. For the two cases of hydrogen electrolysers. As can be seen from the figure the annual introduction it would reach about 0.54 billion and 0.52 capital requirement for the accelerated hydrogen case billion by the years 2045 and 2065 respectively. The would reach to about $2.5 billion around the year 2045 peaks are due to the 30 year life time assumption of the followed by three peaks each with intervals of 20 years, desalination plant. These are due to the 20 year life time assumption for the Figures 30-34 clearly shows that the major component electrolysers. Similar trends can be seen for the slower of the capital requirements is PV cells followed by the hydrogen introduction case. concrete posts.

• Oh~ = 2.0 + 0 .2 (n - 1) ; ; ; ; ; ; I I I

• eh. = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1 ) : : ,' ,: ,[ ,l

1.15 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . ~r . . . . . i t . . . . . t . . . . . Jr . . . . . 1 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . . I l I I I I I I

I I I ! ! I I i I i i I i i i I I I i i I

1 . 2 . . . . . 8. . . . . . L . . . . . J. . . . . . J . - . _ , L . . . . . . . n . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I 1 I I I I I I I I

I ! I I I I I I I I I l

i 1 . 0 . . . . . o- . . . . . ~- . . . . . ~- . . . . . ~ - - + . . . . . . . . . i I I ! I I I I I i i I I I I I I i I I I 1 I I I I I I

0 . 8 . . . . . ~" . . . . . r . . . . . t . . . . . . . . . . " t . . . . . " t . . . . . " t . . . . . '1 . . . . . . I I i I ! I I I 1 i i I i I i I i I i I i i I i I I i I I I I I 1 i I i I i i i

0.5 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . T . . . . . i . . . . . • . . . . . I . . . . . I ......

i o I o ! i I I i i i 1 I i i ! I I I i i l I i I I I I i I i I i

o~ . . . . . I- . . . . . ,L . . . . . . . . . I i i i t i I i I I I i I I i I I I i I I I i I I

l g 0 0 - 2 0 0 6 ~ 2 0 3 8 ~ 6 0 ~ 2 0 0 0 ~ 2 1 1 0

Fig. 33. Capital requirements for compression, storage and distribution vs time.


I ~• O h =2 .0+0 .2 (n- 1) ; ; ; ; i ; ; n l l I l I l i - - 2,0 + I19~I' . I'i I I I I I I I

u i - .... r ..... r ..... t ..... + ..... + ..... + ..... 1 ..... 4 ..... 4 ......

I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 .5 . . . . I . . . . . . I . . . . . . k . . . . . L__ - JL . . . . . . t . . . . . d . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I l I

I l I l l l I l l l l I I l

0 . 4 . . . . s. . . . . . i . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . , . . . . . . . l l I l I I I I I I I l l I I i i ! I i t I I I I I I ! I

0 . 3 . . . . ~ - . . . . . I - . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

L ' / i _ _ / _ i i i i J I I I I I I l I I I l l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 . 2 . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I l ! I I l I I I I l t I I I I I I I l I I I I I

o.1 .... ! ..... t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

l l I l I l l l l l l I I l l l l

l m - 2005 2020 ~ ~ 20(145 2000 2006 211o

Fig. 34. Capital requirements for water desal inat ion plant vs time.

Figures 35-38 show the annual operating and main- system for the two hydrogen introduction rates, respect- tenance cost for the various components of the system, ively. Income is due to the sale of hydrogen, oxygen and Figure 35 shows the annual O & M cost for the PV cells, the agricultural products. These figures also include the which would reach about $10.1 billion by the end of next total annual capital requirement and annual operating century. Figure 36 shows the annual O & M cost and maintenance cost for the whole system, which of electrolysers. When the steady state conditions are includes PV cells, their support structures, electrolysers, attained this would reach about $10 billion per year. and the desalination plant. These figures show that the Figure 37 shows the O & M cost for storage, com- total annual income from the proposed system would pression and transmission. By the end of the next reach about $250 billion by the end of the next century. century this would reach about $18 billion per year. On the other hand total annual expenditure (capital + Figure 38 shows that the annual O & M cost for O & M)would reach only about $70 billion. the water desalination plant would reach about $13.6 Figure 41 presents the dimensionless environmental billion, impact ratio as a function of time. It can be seen that if

Figures 39 and 40 present the total annual income and no hydrogen is introduced and if enough fossil fuels are total annual expenses due to the solar-hydrogen energy available throughout the next century environmental

• o,. = 2o + 02 . i i i i • oh~ = Z O + O . ~ ( n - 1 ) ' , ' , , I I

I I I I

lO ..... r ..... r ..... F ..... + ..... + ..... + - ~ ...... m i | i | i i l i m i l l u I I l l I I i I l l I I I I I I I I I

I I . . . . . l - . . . . . L . . . . . L . . . . . . l , . . . . . ,,I, . . . . ~, . . . . . j . . . . . j . . . . . i i I I I t I l l l I I l I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I s I

I I . . . . . I - . . . . . I - . . . . . I - . . . . . 4 - - - - , ~ . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . . I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I

4 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . I " . . . . . ' r . . . . . - I . . . . . " l . . . . . " l . . . . . . I I I l I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I i I I l i I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

I IMPO- 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2005 2110

Y [ A R S

Fig. 35. Operat ing and m a i n t e n a n c e cost for PV cells vs time.

196 N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO~JLU

. = 20.0 o ]) i i i i i ' • Oh~ = 2 .0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - l ) [ I

I I I 1 0 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . {" . . . . . ~" . . . . . "~ . . . . . "~ - - - - - - ~ 1 ~ , I ~ i ~ . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I ! ! I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I

0 . . . . . I . . . . . . L . . . . . L . . . . . J. . . . . . J. . . . . .L . . . . . .1 . . . . . J . . . . . . ~ I I I I I I I

I I I I I I I

i I I I I I I ! I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

6 . . . . . i - . . . . . l - . . . . . ¢- . . . . . ,I- . . . . -i. . . . . . -6 . . . . . - t . . . . . ,.4 . . . . . i i i I I I i i I I I I I I I

~ i I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I 1 I I I I I ! I I I I ! I I I I I

4" . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . I " . . . . . 1" . . . . . T . . . . . 1. . . . . . `1 . . . . . `1 . . . . . . I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

2 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1990 2 0 ~ 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 6 0 2 0 6 5 2 0 6 0 2 0 g 5 2 1 1 0

Fig. 36. Operating and maintenance cost for electrolysers vs time.

impact would increase and level around the year 2060 at the year 2050. The slower hydrogen introduction would 25 times that of the environmental impact at the year delay the benefits by about 20 years. 1990. Introduction of hydrogen at a fast rate would reduce the environmental impact to a 0.7~?.9 level starting with the year 2050. A slight increase in environ- 7. CONCLUSIONS

mental impact ratio is due to slight increase in nitrogen As a result of the foregoing study, the following oxide emissions caused by the increase in hydrogen conclusions are drawn: consumption. Slower introduction of hydrogen would delay the benefits by 20 years. (a) Due to the high population growth, increasing

Figure 42 shows the quality of life indicator as a energy demand and declining fossil fuel reserves, the function of time. It can be seen that if the fossil fuels are amount of fossil fuels that Pakistan imports will con- continuously used, the quality of life would deteriorate tinue to increase throughout the next century, unless to 0.3 by the middle of the next century and remain serious efforts are made to substitute for the fossil fuels. constant afterwards. The introduction of the solar hy- Bearing in mind the future cost of oil, the implication of drogen at the fast rate would increase the quality of life such import dependency, on Pakistan's economy could up to a value of 10 times that of the year 1990 around be quite disastrous.

• 0 , . = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1) i i ; ; ; ; I I !

• o h . ~ 2 .0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1 ) , I

' _' . . . . . _ . . . . . . . . . . . . i 15 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ ÷ I I I I I I I I I I ¢ I I 1 I 1 I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 2 . . . . . i . . . . . . • . . . . . ,t. . . . . . J. . . . . , l . . . . . .z . . . . . .L . . . . . J . . . . . .

I i I I 1 I 1 I I L I I I I I I I i 1 I I I I I

i I I I I I I I I I I I I | I I I I ) . . . . . I - . . . . . P . . . . . l - . . . . . ~ . . . . . I . . . . . . 4 . . . . . - I . . . . . - I . . . . . .

I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I

m i i i i i i i i I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I

15 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . T . . . . . 1" . . . . . " r . . . . . `1 . . . . . '1 . . . . . - I . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I , ! i

J J i ; J

Fig. 37. Operating and maintenance cost for storage, compression and transmission vs time.


• Oh,=2-0+0-2(n- 1) : aj 0 I

• OWn = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1) I i i ~ o

" . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . [ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I I I I I I ; I I I I I I !

9 . . . . . o- . . . . . i - . . . . . ~- . . . . . 1- . . . . • . . . . ~ . . . . . -D . . . . . 4 . . . . . ,4 . . . . . .

i t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I ! ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

~ ; I I I I I I I I I 1 . . . . . I - . . . . . l - . . . . . t . . . . . . ~ . . . . 4~ . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I ! I I I I I I I I t I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I ! I I ! I I I I

3 . . . . . . . . . . . : . . . . . : . . . . t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I I I

1 ' 1

19110 2005 2020 2035 2050 2015 2080 ~ 2110

Fig. 38. Operating and maintenance cost for water desalination plant vs time.

; ; ; ; ; ; Total Income 1 I 1 I n n Total Expcnditare I ui ~ 1 nl al

250.0 Total Capital InvestmentS" . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . " F - - - - - ~ ' ~ J ' - " ~ r a m ~ . . . . . . I I ! I I !

. . . . . . . . . I I I I I I I O h ~ 2.0 + 0.2(n - 1) ' ' , f I : ', ',

n I I I I I I I

2 0 0 . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . J- . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ _ _ _ . L . . . . . . I . . . . . . I . . . . . .J . . . . . . I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I ! I

1 5 0 . 0 . . . . . o- . . . . . o- . . . . . ~- . . . . . i - . . . . + . . . . . + . . . . . * . . . . . -o . . . . . -o . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 0 0 , 0 ~ - - . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . T - - - T . . . . . T . . . . . • . . . . . 1 . . . . . ~ . . . . . . I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I

5o.0 . . . . . I - . . . . . I - . . . . . t - . . . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I

I _ -

Fig. 39. Total annual income and expenditure (accelerated hydrogen case) vs time.


Total Income i

Total Expenditure =' 1 1 ~ i == 250 e Total Capital Investment{" . . . . . t . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . l - ' - ~ - ~ ' a " ~ . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ', ,,

• Total 0 & M Cost e t = = I I $ I I I I

O , a = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1 ) i , , , a / l ', ', ! f t ! ! i i

2 0 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . & . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . 4 . . . . . A . . . . . J . . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I

411, I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I

I ~ 0 . . . . . I- . . . . . l - . . . . . I- . . . . . 4" . . . . . + - - - 4 . . . . . -b . . . . . -e . . . . . 4 . . . . . . I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I ! I I I I

1 0 0 . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . r . . . . . 1" . . . . . . . . . . T . . . . . • . . . . . 1 . . . . . "I . . . . . . I I ! I ! I I I l I I I I I I I I ! I I I ! I I I I ! I I I I ! I I I I I I

= . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . f . . . . . . . .

I ! I ! l I I I

I I

I _ ,

1 9 9 0 = 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 = = 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 1 1 0

Fig. 40. Total annual income and expenditure (slow hydrogen case) vs time.

i i i i i • Olin = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1 ) i I . . . .

20.0 • Oh = 2 0 + 0 2 5 ( n - 1)| 1 _ _ | _ ' , , , | i a =

_ ; a i i ! l l p |

10.0 ' ' ' ' ' i i s

• e i i t i , i , i | I i , i

6 . 0 . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . , , i t

0 i = i a = i

_ ~ . i = i = , i = = f i |

: i =

' , i u

1 1 i J

I 1 . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

O,S[- i . . . . . . .

i . . . . . .

0.2 ....... ,= ........ , , , , , ,

I i . . . . . . . i i, i l i i i t 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 ~ ~ 2005 2110

Fig. 41. Environmental impact ratio vs time.


• e h , = 2.0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1)

• Oh, = 2.0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1) ! ,

1 0 , 0 • O h n = O0 t . . . . . . . . t . . . . . . . " ~ l ' - ~ ' ' l I a I [ I . . . . . . . .

i i | i i t i t

6 . 0 . . . . . . . . r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I. . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' , i J i |

l i i i t J i i

I 1 1

z ' ' : l I [ n i

t I I i i i I

: : , , ,

1 DO " . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . .

0.0 . . . . . . . . ,,- . . . . ~- . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . O r i i I

l i i i t l

i i i a i I i i l

: T - - T I - T - - I P - - - T

n i i i i ¢ | i i i i

I I I I I I I 1990 2005 2020 2035 2060 2065 2000 2095 2110

Fig. 42. Quality of life indicator vs time.

(b) The present fossil fuel based energy system, which ments Program, Office of Technology Assessment (April is non-renewable, polluting and a heavy burden on 1988). Pakistan's economy, could be replaced by the solar 5. P. Shabecoff, Global warming has begun, expert tells hydrogen energy system, which is renewable and clean, senate, New York Times (24 June 1988). and could be established with the indigenous resources. 6. Committee on the Monitoring and Assessment of Trends in

Acid Deposition, National Research Council, Acid Depo- (c) Pakistan like other developing countries, is trying sition: Long-Term Trends. National Academy Press, Wash-

to expand its energy infrastructure. It could avoid the ington, D.C. (1986). mistakes of industrial countries, by basing its energy 7. University of Miami News, Office of Public Affairs (14 June infrastructure on the solar hydrogen energy system, 1990). rather than a non-renewable and environmentally in- 8. A. H. Awad and T. N. Veziro~lu, Hydrogen versus syn- compatible system, thetic fossil fuels. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 9, No. 5 (1984).

(d) Production of hydrogen via photovoltaic electrol- 9. T. N. Veziro~lu, Hydrogen technology for energy needs of human settlements. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 12, No. 2 ysis utilizing the available non-agricultural, sunny ter- (1987).

rain in the Baluchistan region would not only provide 10. P. Hoffmann (ed.), Hydrogen News Letter, Vol. V/No. 7 for a valuable energy carrier, but also would change the (1990). vast useless desert land into green productive farms. 11. World Bank, World Development Report, Washington,

(e) Large savings would be realised due to higher D.C. (1989). utilization efficiency of hydrogen and due to the savings 12. Government of Pakistan, Finance Division, Economic in environmental damage. Advisor's Wing, Economic Survey. Ministry of Finance,

(f) The introduction of the solar hydrogen energy Islamabad, Pakistan (1988-89). system would eliminate the importat ion of fossil fuels, 13. Government of Pakistan, Director General of Energy Re- increase gross product per capita, reduce pollution, sources, Energy Year Book, Ministry of Petroleum and

Natural Resources, lslamabad, Pakistan (1989). improve quality of life, and establish a clean and perma- 14. N. Lutfi and T. N. Veziro~lu, Present energy situation of nent energy system, Pakistan and planning for future, in T. N. Veziro~lu (ed.),

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a clean and permanent energy infrastructure for pakistan solar hydrogen energy system 1991

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