a first look at australian unemployment statistics: a new methodology for analyzing unemployment...

7/31/2019 A First Look at Australian Unemployment Statistics: A New Methodology for Analyzing Unemployment Data

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A First Look at Australian Unemployment Rates

A New Methodology for Analyzing Unemployment Stats

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Table of Contents

No. Topic Page No.

1. Abstract 3

2. Brief Introduction to Analysis 4

3. Unemployment Diagrams 9

4. Unemployment rate of 6% in 2013: Implications 15

5. Summary and Conclusions 17

6. Appendix 1: Compilation of some news items 18


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1. Abstract

There has been a significant improvement in the Australian economy, especially

the unemployment situation (which is the focus here), between 2011 and 2012, as

revealed by an analysis of the unemployment data, using a new methodology, as

described here.

Instead of the exclusive focus on the unemployment rate y/x, the focus here is on

the nature of the underlying x-y relation where x is the labor force and y the

number of unemployed.

As with the earlier analysis for the USA (for the period 1941-2012), a simple linearlaw y = hx + c relates the two variables of interest. As the labor force x increases

(or decreases), the unemployment levels y will also increase or decrease, following

this simple linear law. However, the unemployment rate y/x = h + (c/x) can either

increase or decrease depending on the numerical values of the constants h and c

(which can be either positive or negative).

The significant improvement in the Australian unemployment situation, between

2011 and 2012, can be appreciated by the fact that h > 1 in 2011 but has now

decreased to h 0.20 in 2012. The number of unemployed y is, therefore, growing

at a lower rate in 2012, compared to 2011, with increase in the labor force.

NOTE: More than 100 hits had been recorded after posting, in the first hour

or so, prompting this clarification. I found an unfortunate numerical error in

the PREVIOUS version, in Table 1. I had converted unemployed to millions

and added this to the employed before converting it also to millions. This

affects the labor force values. All graphs and Table 1 have been updated in

this revision. The slope calculations were obviously affected by the numerical

error and have also been fixed. Sorry, folks. I have been much too busy with

several of these articles and, sometimes, mistakes are made. This is the first

one that I discovered after posting. It was bugging me why I got 5.4% for

unemployment rate for June 2012 instead of 5.2% (news media, or 5.1% as

quoted on the ABS website).


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2. Brief Introduction to Analysis

Australias unemployment rate rose to 5.2% according to the most recent monthly

data for June 2012, seehttp://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0/.

Some economists have already warned that the unemployment rate could exceed

6% in 2013 (see links to news items complied at the end of this article). Retiring

baby boomers and youth who choose to stay in school longer are masking the more

grim unemployment outlook.

The unemployment rate is the ratio y/x, converted to a percentage, where the

numerator y is the number of unemployed workers and the denominator x is the

total labor force, the sum of the employed plus the unemployed. The data is

obtained from various surveys, conducted monthly, and then extrapolated to the

larger population, see website of Australian Bureau of Statistics, link given above

for the June news release. The monthly data, from January 2011 to June 2012 has

been compiled in Table 1 and will be analyzed here briefly.

Notice that the labor force x has increased between Jan 2011 and June 2012, see

Figure 1. The unemployment rate, y/x, on the other hand has been going up and

down and revealed a pronounced peak, as seen in Figure 2. An expanded scale isused in both figures to reveal these trends. As discussed in two recent articles (see

links below) which discuss the high US unemployment rate during the Obama

years and how it compares with other periods of high US unemployment rates

(from 1941-2011), the focus has always been on the ratio y/x. The relation between

the labor force x and the number of unemployed y has generally not been

investigated and tells a very different story.

1. http://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-

happened-in-the-Obama-years Published July 10, 2012.2. http://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-

Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levels

Published July 12, 2012.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0/http://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-What-happened-in-the-Obama-yearshttp://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0/


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12.020

12.040

12.060

12.080

12.100

12.120

12.140

12.160

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

650

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

Time t [months]

Laborforce,x[millio

ns]

Time t [months]

Unemployed,y[in000s]

Oct 11

Oct 11


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Figure 1 (Top): Australian labor force x plotted as a function time t expressed in

months, with Jan 2011 being taken as month number 1. More than one value can

be obtained for any given month because of revisions being made for prior month.

Some of these are included here in this plot (vertical line at same month number).

Figure 2 (Middle): Australian unemployment level y, plotted as a function time t

expressed in months. The Oct 2011 peak in the unemployed y coincides with a

local maximum in the labor force x.

Figure 3 (Bottom): Australian unemployment rate plotted as a function time t

expressed in months. The maximum in the unemployed y in Oct 11 coincides with

the maximum in the unemployment rate, also observed in October 2011.

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

Time t [months]

Unemploy

mentrate,y/x[perce

nt]

Oct 11


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For example, for the USA, the study of all of the historical data reveals a simple

linear relation, y = hx + c = h(x x0), between the labor force x and the

unemployed y. The numerical values of the constants h and c in this law can be

fixed by considering the data for different periods. Interestingly, this also fixes the

cut-off labor force, x0 = - c/h, below which the number of unemployed y = 0.

For the USA, we find that there were three periods when the unemployment level y

was its highest for that era: in 1941, in 1982 and 1983, and now in 2009-2011.

These highest ever recorded unemployment levels can be shown to fall on a

PERFECT straight line, with the equation y = 0.0946x + 0.2731, thus revealing a

unique relation between the labor force x and the unemployed y, see Figure 4 in

Ref. [2]http://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-

Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levels. The

slope h = 0.0946 is therefore akin to a universal constant of nature, or at the very

least a unique property of the US economy.

All of the US unemployment data can thus be explained by merely postulating a

change in values of the constant c. A series of parallels with the general equation y

= 0.0946x + c, with various values of c sweep through the data. The unemployment

level (y) falls when c decreases and rises when c increases. When the constant c

decreases, the cut-off labor force x0 = - c/h increases and more will be employed.

The constant c is just like the work function W introduced by Einstein in 1905 toexplain certain puzzling aspects of the photoelectric effect (which engaged the

attention of physicists of the late 19th

and early 20th

centuries) and x0 is just like the

cut-off frequency f0. The photoelectric law can be written as K = EW = hfW =

h(ff0). This is exactly analogous to the linear y = hx + c = h(xx0). The reader is

referred to the article cited above for more details.

Are these findings, unique to the United States, or will we see exactly similar

trends in other technologically advanced economies, such as Australia, UK, Japan,

Germany, and other European economies? However, the observations just maderegarding the USA suggest that we must look for unique points in the historical

unemployment datafor the highest unemployment levels, or may be even the

lowest unemployment levels. The constants h and c have unique values for a given

economic system and this property is only revealed under these special conditions.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levelshttp://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-Rates-Obama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levels


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Table 1: Monthly Australian unemployment data

Month Month

No.

Labor force,

x (millions)

Unemployed, y

(millions)

Unemployment

rate %, 100(y/x)

Jan-11 1 12.0325 0.6079 5.052Feb-11 2 12.04 0.6001 4.984

Feb-11 2 12.0478 0.6041 5.014

Mar-11 3 12.0432 0.5947 4.938

Mar-11 3 12.0329 0.5917 4.917

Apr-11 4 12.0318 0.5857 4.868

May-11 5 12.0332 0.5895 4.899

Jun-11 6 12.0366 0.5891 4.894

Jul-11 7 12.0519 0.6123 5.081

Aug-11 8 12.0602 0.6203 5.143

Sep-11 9 12.0808 0.6333 5.242Oct-11 10 12.0928 0.6395 5.288

Nov-11 11 12.0763 0.634 5.250

Dec-11 12 12.0743 0.6342 5.252

Jan-12 13 12.0704 0.6268 5.193

Feb-12 14 12.0696 0.625 5.178

Mar-12 15 12.0912 0.6176 5.108

Apr-12 16 12.0984 0.6142 5.077

Apr-12 16 12.1188 0.618 5.100

May-12 17 12.1287 0.6217 5.126May-12 17 12.1328 0.6158 5.075

Jun-12 18 12.1404 0.6228 5.130

More than one (x, y) values are obtained for a month due to revisions being

made to the tables. Some of these are included here.

Are these findings, unique to the United States, or will we see exactly similar

trends in other technologically advanced economies, such as Australia, UK, Japan,

Germany, and other European economies? However, the observations just made

regarding the USA suggest that we must look for unique points in the historicalunemployment datafor the highest unemployment levels, or may be even the

lowest unemployment levels. The constants h and c have unique values for a given

economic system and this property is only revealed under these special conditions.


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3. Unemployment Diagrams

Nonetheless, a preliminary analysis of the monthly data starting January 2011 is

presented here to show that new insights can be gained by careful study of the x-yunemployment diagrams, instead of only focusing on the unemployment rate, y/x.

Figure 4: The x-y unemployment diagram for Australia based on the monthly data,

for the period January 2011 to June 2012.

In the unemployment diagram of Figure 4, the monthly data separates itself clearlyinto two periods with the most of the data for 2011 falling along the line with the

steeper slope (h = 1.044). The procedure used to determine these slopes will be

discussed shortly. The lowest unemployment level (0.5857 million) was in April

2011 and the highest (0.6395 million) in Oct 2011. The unemployment levels were

dropping between Dec 2011 and March 2012 and then started climbing again, see

0.56

0.58

0.60

0.62

0.64

0.66

12.00 12.04 12.08 12.12 12.16 12.20

y = 0.205x 1.863= 0.205 x 9.099

y = 1.044x 11.98= 1.044 x 11.47

Labor force, x [millions]

Unemployed,y[millions]


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Figure 5 which highlights this most recent trend separately, without distraction

from the 2011 data.

Figure 5: The x-y unemployment diagram for Australia, based on monthly data, for

the period Jan 2012 to June 2012. Between April 2012 and June 2012, the labor

force increased from 12.0984 million to 12.1404 million (x = 0.042) and the

unemployed increased from 0.6142 million to 0.6228 million (y = 0.0086). Hence

the slope h = y/x = 0.205 and the equation of the straight line joining these two

points is y = 0.205x1.863. This reveals the most recent trend nicely. The two (x,

y) pairs for April 2012 and May 2012 obtained from ABS website (revisions made

from month-to-month releases) are both plotted here. The Jan and Feb data, with

the two lowest labor force values, fall well above the operating line shown here.

The unemployment level decreased between Jan 2012 and March 2012 and then

started increasing again.

0.605

0.610

0.615

0.620

0.625

0.630

12.06 12.08 12.10 12.12 12.14 12.16


Unemploy

ed,y[millions]

y = 0.205x 1.863= 0.205 x 9.099

Mar 2012May 2012

Apr 2012

May 2012


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The steep slope h = 1.044 in Figure 4 and the corresponding intercept c = -11.97

were determined using a straightforward linear regression analysis, considering 13

(x, y) pairs between Jan 2011 and Feb 2012 (the data for Jan 2011, Sep 2011 and

Oct 2011 were excluded). These 13 (x, y) pairs can be seen to lie approximately

on a straight line. The slope h and intercept c for the best-fit line are readilydetermined. The linear regression coefficient r

2= 0.981 is very high.

Other values of h and c can obviously be determined by choosing other (x, y) pairs.

For example, consider the Jan 2011 and Oct 2011 data. The labor force increased

by x = 0.0287 million and the number of unemployed increased by y = 0.0316

million. Hence, the slope h = y/x = 0.0315/0.0287 = 1.0998 > 1 since the rate of

increase of unemployed exceeded the rate of increase in the labor force. The slope

h = 1.044, determined from 13 (x, y) pairs from this period, confirms this general

trend. Other values suggesting h > 1 in 2011 can also be determined.

Nonetheless, the finding h > 1 during 2011 is quite significant and highlights the

recent improvement, with h = 0.205 < 1, see Figure 5. In the recent months, the

unemployment rate has again been increasing with the increase in the labor force

but the number of unemployed y is now increasing at a lower rate. For example,

between March 2011 and June 2012, the labor force increased by x = 0.1075 but

the number of unemployed increased only by y = 0.0311 and h = 0.289. Between

May 2012 and June 2012, x = 0.0076 and y = 0.007 which yields h = y/x =0.007/0.0076 = 0.921 (the higher slope) which is lower than 1. For these same two

months we also get, h = 0.094, which is significantly lower than 1, if we use the

higher unemployed for May 2012 (different values in successive ABS monthly

reports). Nonetheless, the unemployed y has clearly been increasing at a much

lower rate (with increase in labor force) in recent months compared to 2011.

This general improvement in the economic conditions is, however, not revealed if

we only focus on the unemployment rate, y/x. If so, why did the unemployment

rate go up between say March 2012 and June 2012?

Let us consider again by referring to both Figures 5 and the theoretical calculations

in Figure 6. A nice upward linear trend is revealed in the x-y plot. Consider the

months of April 2012 and June 2012. The straight line joining these two data

points has the equation y = 0.205x1.863 = 0.205(x9.099). However, this graph


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does not pass through the origin (0, 0). The intercept c = -1.863 is nonzero which

also means that there is a finite labor force x0 = - c/h = 1.863/0.205 = 9.099 million

below which the number of unemployed will go to zero. More importantly, the

non-zero intercept c means the unemployment rate, taken as the ratio y/x = 0.205

(1.863/x) is made up two parts: the constant part which equals the slope h = 0.205and a variable part which depends on the size of the labor force x. Since c < 0, the

unemployment rate y/x, as now being calculated, will keep on increasing as

the labor force x increases, assuming no change in the current economic

conditions.

Figure 6: Theoretical calculations for the unemployment rate y/x based on the

linear law y = hx + c, for the most recent months, March 2012 to June 2012. Forthese months, y = 0.205x1.863. Since the slope h is positive and the intercept c is

negative, the ratio y/x will keep on increasing with increasing labor force x, as

shown here. The graph appears linear since we are looking at small changes in

labor force. The actual graph is a rising hyperbola with the maximum value of y/x

= h = 0.205 (see also Figure 8).

0.0490

0.0495

0.0500

0.0505

0.0510

0.0515

0.0520

0.0525

11.95 12.00 12.05 12.10 12.15 12.20 12.25


Unemploymentrate,y/x(fractional)


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The theoretical predictions for y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.205(1.863/x), based on the

linear law y = 0.205x1.863, are shown in Figure 6 with the data points for recent

months superimposed on to this graph. The theoretical curve y/x = h + (c/x) is

actually a rising hyperbola. It appears to be a straight line here because of the

rather small range of labor force x values. The hyperbola is more apparent inFigure 8, to be discussed shortly, where we consider the effect of higher labor

force x on the unemployment rate, y/x, specifically the 6% projected for 2013 by

some economists who are already sounding alarm bells.

Notice also that fractional values (rather than percentages) are used in the vertical

axis for the unemployment rate, y/x. Thus, 5% unemployment rate means y/x =

0.05 and 5.2% means y/x = 0.052, and 6% means y/x = 0.06, and so on.

Table 1A (extract): Monthly Australian unemployment data

Month Month

No.

Labor force,

x (millions)

Unemployed, y

(millions)

Unemployment

rate %, 100(y/x)

Feb-11 2 12.04 0.6001 4.984

Feb-11 2 12.0478 0.6041 5.014

Mar-11 3 12.0432 0.5947 4.938

Apr-11 4 12.0318 0.5857 4.868

Between Feb-11 and Apr-11, x = - 0.0082 and y = - 0.0144. Both changes are

negative, yielding a positive slope h = y/x = 1.756 > 1. The labor forcedecreased but the unemployed decrease even more.

Table 1B (extract): Monthly Australian unemployment data

Month Month

No.

Labor force,

x (millions)

Unemployed, y

(millions)

Unemployment

rate %, 100(y/x)

Feb-11 2 12.04 0.6001 4.984

Mar-11 3 12.0432 0.5947 4.938

Apr-11 4 12.0318 0.5857 4.868

Jun-11 6 12.0366 0.5891 4.894

Jul-11 7 12.0519 0.6123 5.081

Between Mar-11 and Jul-11, x = 0.0087and y = 0.0176. Both changes are

positive,yielding a positive slope h = y/x = 2.023 > 1. The labor force

increased but the unemployed increased even more. Between Jun-11 and Jul-11,

the labor force again increasedx = 0.0153 and the unemployed also increased


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y = 0.0232 and the slope h =y/x = 1.52 > 1. These points lie on the dashed

line with a positive slope h > 1.

Finally, we see an interesting pattern of back and forth movement along lines with

a positive slope h > 1 if we consider a small section of the data for 2011, Figure 7.Between Feb 2011 and April 2011, the movement was down the line with a

positive slope h > 1, see Table 1A. We see the unemployed level decreasing with

decreasing labor force, but at a high rate with h > 1.

Figure 7: Back and forth movement on the x-y unemployment diagram for

Australia, based on monthly data, for the period Mar 2011 to Jul 2011. Asdiscussed in the text, with reference to data extracts in Tables 1A and 1B, a

positive slope h > 1 is observed with both increasing unemployed and decreasing

unemployed. This local observation confirms the overall trend of h > 1 for 2011

deduced earlier by linear regression analysis by considering 13 (x, y) pairs.

0.54

0.55

0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

12.02 12.025 12.03 12.035 12.04 12.045 12.05 12.055 12.06


Une

mployed,y[millions

]


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The slope h > 1 observed here suggests extremely stressful conditions for those

who are seeking employment, with job losses (increasing unemployed) occurring

after very short periods of job gains (decreasing unemployed). If the speculation

here is true, this situation deserves more careful study by sociologists and those

specializing in unemployment studies. Both employers and employees stand togain when stable conditions prevail. Rapid fire job gains and losses are not

desirable. It is obviously important to ensure a healthy economy.

4. Unemployment rate of 6% in 2013

As noted already, since the labor force x and the number of unemployed y are

related by the linear law, y = hx +c, the unemployment rate y/x will vary as the

labor force x following the hyperbolic law, y/x = h + (c/x). For h > 0 and c < 0, this

is a rising hyperbola with y/x increasing to it maximum value of h when the labor

force x becomes very large.

The calculations presented in graphical form in Figure 8 are of interest since they

reveal this theoretical hyperbolic curve, y/x = 0.205(0.186/x) for the most recent

Australian unemployment data. All of the monthly data points for 2012 are nowclustered and collapse into what appears to be a single point on this hyperbola.

This also means that if present economic conditions prevail (i.e., no changes in h

and c), the projected increase in unemployment rate to 6% in 2013 implies that the

labor force must increase to about 13 million from the current level of 12.15

million. This also means that the economy must be able to create additional jobs,

since the labor force is the sum of both the employed and the unemployed.

This is a subtle and very important, but overlooked, aspect of the projectedincreases in the unemployment rate to 6%. One cannot simply have unemployment

increasing from 5.1% to 6% without a concomitant increase in both the labor force

and the number of employed persons. The consequences of such a drastic increase

in unemployment rate to 6% - without an increase in labor force or the number of

employed personsare simply too horrendous to imagine!


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Figure 8: The theoretical rising hyperbola for unemployment rate, deduced from

y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.205 (1.863/x). For 6% unemployment rate, the labor forcemust increase to about 13 million. This also means the economy must be able to

create additional jobs since labor force equals the sum of the employed and the

unemployed.

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Unemploymentrate,y/x(fractional)



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5. Summary and Conclusions

In summary, it is clear now that the simple linear law y = hx + c = h(xx0) relates

the labor force x and the unemployment level y. The numerical values of the

constants h and c can be deduced from the monthly (or quarterly, or annual) data.

However, as discussed earlier with the US unemployment data, it appears that

considering all of the historical data for a country will yield some unique insights

into the numerical values of the two constants and how the cut-off labor force x0 =

- c/h changes as economic conditions change.

As economists have warned, the current unemployment statistics masks the real

problemthe baby boomers who are retiring and the youth who have chosen to

stay longer in school. Both these factors imply that the labor force x is now

artificially low and will increase soon, may be in 2013. Hence, it is widely believed

that the unemployment rate will increase.

A review of all of the available historical data for Australia, using

the x-y unemployment diagrams, as suggested here, is therefore

extremely important to fully understand a key aspect of the growing

Australian economy. Perhaps, sound economic policies that promote

an increase in the cut-off labor force (reduce unemployment) can be

devised as we understand the implications of this universal law that

has escaped attention to date.


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Appendix 1: Highlights of Recent News Items

on Australian Unemployment Rates

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-

economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocument

Unemployment rate set to climb: economistsPublished 4:36 AM, 17 Jul 2012 Last update 4:36 AM, 17 Jul 2012

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A Macquarie senior economist has warned that Australia's unemployment rate could topsix per cent in 2013, saying that the country's jobless rate is rising faster than officialfigures indicate, according to Fairfax Media.

Macquarie's Brian Redican said that baby-boomer retirements and stay-at-school youthare masking the troubling outlook for employment.

Australian unemployment up to 5.2%http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hn0xh_FZaBgxbTn-

qfOEGSkPPsjw?docId=CNG.f5f076923056409682365dbb1aa2e343.231

(AFP)6 days ago (as of today July 18, 2012)

SYDNEYAustralia's unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent in June, data showed Thursday,

with the economy shedding 27,000 jobs as global uncertainty and the strong Australian dollarweighed on employers.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the numbers remained robust compared with other advanced

economies.

"By the standards of the world we continue to have a low unemployment rate," she toldreporters.

"When I sit at that G20 table and talk to my counterparts from around the world... they would

literally do anything to have the same economic story and statistics as Australia."
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocumenthttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocumenthttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocumenthttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocument&rf=shttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocument&rf=shttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/fmISHome?OpenForm&is=Economyhttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/fmISHome?OpenForm&is=Economyhttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/fmISHome?OpenForm&is=Economyhttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hn0xh_FZaBgxbTn-qfOEGSkPPsjw?docId=CNG.f5f076923056409682365dbb1aa2e343.231http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hn0xh_FZaBgxbTn-qfOEGSkPPsjw?docId=CNG.f5f076923056409682365dbb1aa2e343.231http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hn0xh_FZaBgxbTn-qfOEGSkPPsjw?docId=CNG.f5f076923056409682365dbb1aa2e343.231http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hn0xh_FZaBgxbTn-qfOEGSkPPsjw?docId=CNG.f5f076923056409682365dbb1aa2e343.231http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hn0xh_FZaBgxbTn-qfOEGSkPPsjw?docId=CNG.f5f076923056409682365dbb1aa2e343.231http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/fmISHome?OpenForm&is=Economyhttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocument&rf=shttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocumenthttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Unemployment-rate-set-to-climb-higher-economists-pd20120716-W9NTC?OpenDocument


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Australia Unemployment Rate

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate

The unemployment rate in Australia was last reported at 5.2 percent in June of2012. Historically, from 1978 until 2012, Australia Unemployment Rate averaged

7.0 Percent reaching an all time high of 10.9 Percent in December of 1992 and a

record low of 4.0 Percent in February of 2008. The unemployment rate can be

defined as the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the

labour force. This page includes a chart with historical data for Australia

Unemployment Rate.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-ratehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-ratehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate


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About the author

V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

The author obtained his Bachelors degree (B. E.) in Mechanical Engineering from

the University of Poona and his Masters degree (M. E.), also in Mechanical

Engineering, from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, followed by a

Masters (S. M.) and Doctoral (Sc. D.) degrees in Materials Engineering from the

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. He then spent his

entire professional career at leading US research institutions (MIT, Allied

Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of Honeywell, NASA, Case Western Reserve

University (CWRU), and General Motors Research and Development Center in

Warren, MI). He holds four patents in materials processing, has co-authored two

books and published several scientific papers in leading peer-reviewed

international journals. His expertise includes developing simple mathematical

models to explain the behavior of complex systems.

While at NASA and CWRU, he was responsible for developing material processing

experiments to be performed aboard the space shuttle and developed a simple

mathematical model to explain the growth Christmas-tree, or snowflake, like

structures (called dendrites) widely observed in many types of liquid-to-solid phasetransformations (e.g., freezing of all commercial metals and alloys, freezing of

water, and, yes, production of snowflakes!). This led to a simple model to explain

the growth of dendritic structures in both the ground-based experiments and in the

space shuttle experiments.

More recently, he has been interested in the analysis of the large volumes of data

from financial and economic systems and has developed what may be called the

Quantum Business Model (QBM). This extends (to financial and economicsystems) the mathematical arguments used by Max Planck to develop quantum

physics using the analogy Energy = Money, i.e., energy in physics is like money in

economics. Einstein applied Plancks ideas to describe the photoelectric effect (by

treating light as being composed of particles called photons, each with the fixed

quantum of energy conceived by Planck). The mathematical law deduced by


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Planck, referred to here as the generalized power-exponential law, might actually

have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first

conceived.

Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law, as we see here, and wasdeduced from Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It

appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar

approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially

seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and

Newton.

Cover page of AirTran 2000 Annual Report

a first look at australian unemployment statistics: a new methodology for analyzing unemployment...

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