Natural Disaster Risk A Global Perspective

David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)

Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable. In the second half of the 20th century

the world experienced increases of:

• 250% in the number of recorded disasters

• 500% in number of disasters with victims

• 500% in the number of affected people

• 1640% in the cost of insured damage.

• 1500% in the total cost of disasters

Disasters 1900-2009

Then (1950s) Now (2007)

Under-reporting of disasters

More complete recording

Counting only direct effects

Quantifying indirect effects

Smaller population of hazardous places

Larger population, greater densities

Less inequality Growing inequality and

marginalisation

Less fixed capital at risk

Relentless accumulation of fixed capital

Simpler socio-economic networks

More complex networks

Vulnerability Hazard

An asset is not vulnerable unless it is threatened by something

A hazard is not hazardous unless

it threatens something

RISK Extreme events

Elements at risk

Resilience

Exposure

Primary • cause and effect

Secondary • interaction of causes

• coincidences

Complex • complicated interactions

VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability

Total: life is generally precarious

Residual: caused by lack of modernisation

Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances

Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc.

Economic: people lack adequate occupation

Technological technocratic: caused by the riskiness of technology

Cascading effects

Collateral vulnerability

Secondary disasters

Interaction between risks

Climate change

Probability

Indeterminacy

"Fat-tailed" distributions of impacts

Vert

ical axis s

cales:

Hazard

: pr

obability o

f oc

curr

enc

e

Vulne

rability: po

tent

ial damage

Risk: va

lue o

f pr

obable c

osts

and

los

ses

Severity

Risk as product of hazard and vulnerability

Total annual predicted costs and losses

Rising vulnerability with increasing seriousness of potential consequences

Falling hazard with diminishing probability of occurrence

Fat-tailed distribution

Disaster risk reduction

Incident management

Population (community) protection

Plans, procedures, protocols

Human and material resources

Hazard forecasting, monitoring,

etc.

DRR

Knowledge of community vulerability

Knowledge of hazards and their impacts

Knowledge of coping

capacity and resilience

Disaster Risk

Reduction

The ingredients of resilience

Redund

ancy

Attitude

Part

icipation

Adaptability

...and communication

Broader scope and outcomes

Changing objectives of emergency management

Civil Protection

Disaster Management

Resilience

Civil Contingencies Management

Disaster Risk Reduction

Civil contingencies

Resilience

management

The risk environment

Business continuity

Civil protection

Civil defence

Organisation Resources

Self-organisation

Imposed organisation

Volunteerism

Community disaster planning

Laws, protocols, directives

Standards, norms, guidelines

Community resources

Governmental resources

Donations

International resources

INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION

• mass media • targeted campaign • social networks

• internet

Augmentation

MASS EDUCATION PROGRAMME

SOCIAL CAPITAL

HABIT

CULTURE

The creation of a culture of civil protection

Governance: democratic participation in decision

making

Livelihoods: diversity

and security

Hazards and risks: disaster

preparedness

RESILIENCE: managing risks

adapting to change securing resources

Uncertain future:

long-term trends climate change capacity to adapt

needs to be shortened needs to be lengthened

preparation for the

next event

warning and

evacuation

recovery and reconstruction

repair of basic

services

emergency management and rescue

isolation

impact

needs to be strengthened Risk reduction and disaster mitigation

Risk analysis

Risk assessment

Risk communication

Knowledge Perception

Institutional learning

Adaptation

Disaster threat

Risk management

Organisational systems: management

Social systems: behaviour

Natural systems: function

Technical systems:

malfunction

Vulnerability Hazard

Resilienc

e

Social factors

Plan

Message

Technology Response

Perception

Culture

Optimisation

In times of peace

In times of crisis

Organised non-structural

protection

Enhanced structural protection

Planning, warning and preparedness

Fusion with sustainability

agenda

Emergency communications

Search and

rescue

Emergency medical response

Emergency management

Emergency response

Health system

Contingency planning

SUSTAINABILITY OF DISASTER

RISK REDUCTION

DAILY RISKS

(e.g. food security, poverty)

EMERGING RISKS

(e.g. climate change,

pandemics)

GENERAL SUSTAINABILITY

(e.g. lifestyles, economic activities, environment)

MAJOR DISASTER RISKS

(e.g. floods, drought, landslides, heatwaves)

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