a latin american success story: five years of extraordinary economic growth and poverty reduction in...
TRANSCRIPT
A Latin American Success Story: Five Years of Extraordinary
Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Argentina
Mark WeisbrotApril 12, 2007
Argentina: GDP (constant prices)
210.0
230.0
250.0
270.0
290.0
310.0
330.0
350.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
seasonally adjusted
47% growth since 2002 first quarter
Source: Argentina’s National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC)
Argentina: Employment (Urban)
33
35
36
38
39
41
42
44
Quarter
Rat
e (%
)
Employment Rate
More than 2.3 million jobs created since 2003 first quarter
Source: INDEC and Ministry of Work, Employment and Social Security (MTEySS)
Argentina: Unemployment and Underemployment (Urban)
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
13.5
15.0
16.5
18.0
19.5
21.0
22.5
Quarter
Rat
e (%
)
Unemployment
Underemployment
Source: INDEC
Argentina: Poverty Rates, Urban (% of total urban population)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003-First Half 2003-Second Half 2004-First Half 2004-Second Half 2005-First Half 2005-Second Half 2006-First Half 2006-Second Half
% o
f to
tal
Poverty
ExtremePoverty
Source: INDEC
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Non-Financial Public SectorTotal Revenue 23.2 22.6 21.2 24.5 26.5 26.9 28.0
Current Revenue 19.4 18.7 17.6 20.5 23.4 23.7 24.2Capital Revenue 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 3.6 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.0 3.1 3.8
Total Spending 25.5 25.8 22.7 24.0 23.9 25.1 26.2Current Spending 20.9 21.0 18.4 19.2 19.6 20.1 19.9
Interest Payments 3.4 3.8 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.8Capital Spending 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5Other 3.6 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.0 3.1 3.8
Current Balance -1.5 -2.3 -0.8 1.3 3.9 3.6 4.2Primary Balance 1.0 0.5 0.7 2.3 3.9 3.7 3.5Overall Balance -2.4 -3.2 -1.5 0.5 2.6 1.8 1.8Balance of PaymentsCurrent Account -8,955 -3,780 8,720 8,065 3,160 5,626 8,053
(In % of GDP) -3.2 -1.4 8.9 6.3 2.1 3.1 3.7Goods 2,452 7,385 17,178 16,805 13,265 13,050 13,976
Exports, FOB 26,341 26,543 25,651 29,939 34,576 40,352 46,569Imports, FOB 23,889 19,158 8,473 13,134 21,311 27,302 32,593
Services -4,284 -3,863 -1,519 -1,286 -1,445 -1,362 -1,057Exports, FOB 4,936 4,627 3,459 4,427 5,189 6,252 7,360Imports, FOB 9,219 8,490 4,978 5,713 6,634 7,613 8,417
Income -7,522 -7,727 -7,488 -7,973 -9,242 -6,628 -5,409International Reserves 26,491 19,425 10,485 14,119 19,646 28,077 32,037
Total Public Debt/1 45.0 53.8 140.5 140.1 125.9 70.9 59.6Foreign 28.6 31.5 89.6 79.9 73.5 33.6 25.0Domestic 16.4 22.3 50.9 60.2 52.4 37.3 34.6
Additional Items:GDP, current prices (in USD billions) 284.2 268.7 97.7 127.6 152.0 181.5 217.6 GDP, current prices (in ARS billions) 284.2 268.7 312.6 375.9 447.6 531.9 654.4 Average Inflation (consumer prices)/2 -0.9 -1.1 25.9 13.4 4.4 9.7 10.9Average Exchange Rate (ARS per USD) 1.0 1.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
Sources: Argentina's Ministry of Economy and Production (MECON), BCRA, INDECNotes: /1 Excludes debt not part of the debt swap. Data for 2006 as of Sept. 30 (latest available)
/2 Latest data available if for March 2007, when inflation came in at 9.2% year-over-year
Argentina: Selected Economic Indicators
In USD millions
In % of GDP
In % of GDP
Argentina: Monthly Real Multilateral Exchange Rate
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Ind
ex
(D
ec
. 20
01
=1
00
)
