a. official liberalizations
DESCRIPTION
A. Official liberalizations. o. 45. Regression fit. A. Official liberalizations. o. 45. Regression fit. A. Official liberalizations. o. 45. Regression fit. A. Official liberalizations. o. 45. Regression fit. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A. Official liberalizations
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
opening
Ave
rage
div
iden
d yi
eld
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
A. Official liberalizations
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlation two years before opening
Cor
rela
tion
tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit
A. Official liberalizations
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit
A. Official liberalizations
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before opening
Exc
ess
retu
rns
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
opening
Ave
rage
div
iden
d yi
eld
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlation two years before opening
Cor
rela
tion
tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before opening
Exc
ess
retu
rns
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Points
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
opening
Ave
rage
div
iden
d yi
eld
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Points
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlation two years before opening
Cor
rela
tion
tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Points
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Point
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before opening
Exc
ess
retu
rns
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
Figure 1
The decreasing impact of ADR and Country Fund launchings
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
=.95
=.50
=.05
Unconditional Pre-Event Five-Year Correlations with World Market Return
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Arg
Bra
Chi
Col
Gre Ind
Ino
Jor
Kor
Mal
Mex
Nig
Pak Phi
Por Tai
Tha
Tur
Ven
Zim
Official Liberalization First Sign LiberalizationNet US Capital Flow Break Point
Figure A1
Simulation Results for ReturnsFor r=8% to r=6% mid-sample change and
autocorrelation of dividend growth=0.3
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181
Figure A1
Simulation Results for ReturnsFor r=8% to r=6% mid-sample change and
autocorrelation of dividend growth=0.1
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181
Figure A2
Simulation Results for Dividend YieldsFor r=8% to r=6% mid-sample change and
autocorrelation of dividend growth=0.1
0.045
0.05
0.055
0.06
0.065
0.07
0.075
0.08
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181
Figure A2
Simulation Results for Dividend YieldsFor r=8% to r=6% mid-sample change and
autocorrelation of dividend growth=0.3
0.045
0.05
0.055
0.06
0.065
0.07
0.075
0.08
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
opening
Ave
rage
div
iden
d yi
eld
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before opening
Exc
ess
retu
rns
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45o
Regression fit
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45o
Regression fit -0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlation two years before opening
Cor
rela
tion
tw
o y
ears
aft
er o
pen
ing
45o
Regression fit
A. Official liberalizations
A. Official liberalizations
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
openingA
vera
ge d
ivid
end
yiel
d tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45 o
Regression fi t
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
opening
Ave
rage
div
iden
d yi
eld
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Points
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 3 6 9 12 15Average dividend yield two years before
opening
Ave
rage
div
iden
d yi
eld
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
Figure 2
The impact of opening capital markets on dividend yields
A. Official liberalizations
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before openingE
xces
s re
turn
s tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45 o
Regression fi t
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before opening
Exc
ess
retu
rns
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Point
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Excess returns two years before opening
Exc
ess
retu
rns
two
year
s af
ter
open
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
Figure 3
The impact of opening capital markets on excess returns
A. Official liberalizations
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45 o
Regression fi t
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45 o
Regression fi t
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Points
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
Volatility two years before opening
Vol
atili
ty tw
o ye
ars
afte
r op
enin
g
45 o
Regression fi t
Figure 4
The impact of opening capital markets on volatility
A. Official liberalizations
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlat ion two years before opening
Co
rrel
atio
n tw
o y
ears
aft
er o
pen
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
B. Minimum of official liberalization, ADRand Country Fund introduction dates
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlat ion two years before opening
Co
rrel
atio
n tw
o y
ears
aft
er o
pen
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
C. Net U.S. Equity Capital Flow Break Points
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75
Correlat ion two years before opening
Co
rrel
atio
n tw
o y
ears
aft
er o
pen
ing
45 o
Regression fi t
Figure 5
The impact of opening capital markets on correlations with world
Economic Impact on Dividend YieldsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Official Liberalizations
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
Cha
nge
in d
ivid
end
yiel
d
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
Economic Impact on Dividend YieldsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
Cha
nge
in d
ivid
end
yiel
d
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INF
L
FX
V
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
Economic Impact on Dividend YieldsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Capital Flow Break Points
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
Cha
nge
in d
ivid
end
yiel
d
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
Economic Impact on Monthly Excess ReturnsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Official Liberalizations
-0.025-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
Cha
nge
in e
xces
s re
turn
s
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
Economic Impact on Monthly Excess ReturnsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-0.025-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
Cha
nge
in e
xces
s re
turn
s
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
Economic Impact on Monthly Excess ReturnsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Capital Flow Break Points
-0.025-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
Cha
nge
in e
xces
s re
turn
s
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
Economic Impact on VolatilityCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Official Liberalizations
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
Cha
nge
in v
olat
ilit
y
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
SUM
-75
Economic Impact on VolatilityCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
Cha
nge
in v
olat
ilit
y
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
SUM
-75
Economic Impact on VolatilityCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Capital Flow Break Points
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
Cha
nge
in v
olat
ilit
y
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
SUM
-75
Economic Impact on CorrelationCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Official Liberalizations
-0.010
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
Cha
nge
in c
orre
lati
on
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
SUM
-75
Economic Impact on CorrelationCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-0.010
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
Cha
nge
in c
orre
lati
on
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
SUM
-75
Economic Impact on CorrelationCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
Capital Flow Break Points
-0.010
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
Cha
nge
in c
orre
lati
on
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
SUM
SUM
-75
Figure A1
Simulation Results for ReturnsFor r=8% to r=6% mid-sample change and
autocorrelation of dividend growth=0.1
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181
Figure A2
Simulation Results for Dividend YieldsFor r=8% to r=6% mid-sample change and
autocorrelation of dividend growth=0.1
0.045
0.05
0.055
0.06
0.065
0.07
0.075
0.08
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181
Economic Impact on Dividend YieldsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
Cha
nge
in d
ivid
end
yiel
d
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Monthly Excess ReturnsCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-0.025-0.02
-0.015-0.01
-0.0050
0.0050.01
0.015
Cha
nge
in e
xces
s re
turn
s
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on VolatilityCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
Cha
nge
in v
olat
ility
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on CorrelationCountry Moving From 25th Percentile to Median
ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
-0.010
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
Cha
nge
in c
orre
lati
on
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Dividend Yields
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
Cha
nge
in d
ivid
end
yiel
d
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Monthly Excess Returns
-0.025-0.02
-0.015-0.01
-0.0050
0.0050.01
0.0150.02
Cha
nge
in e
xces
s re
turn
s
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Volatility
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
Cha
nge
in v
olat
ility
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Correlation
-0.010
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
Cha
nge
in c
orre
lati
on
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Beta
-0.020
0.020.040.060.080.1
0.120.14
Cha
nge
in b
eta
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INFL
FXV
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
STD
STA
R
PO
ST-P
RE
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Dividend Yields
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.1
Cha
nge
in d
ivid
end
yie
ld
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INF
L
FX
V
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
ST
DS
TA
R
PO
ST
-PR
E
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Monthly Excess Returns
-0.025-0.02
-0.015-0.01
-0.0050
0.0050.01
0.015
Cha
nge
in e
xces
s re
turn
s
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INF
L
FX
V
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
ST
DS
TA
R
PO
ST
-PR
E
Fin
.Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Volatility
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
Cha
nge
in v
olat
ilit
y
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INF
L
FX
V
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
ST
DS
TA
R
PO
ST
-PR
E
Fin.
Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Economic Impact on Correlation
-0.010
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
Cha
nge
in c
orre
latio
n
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INF
L
FX
V
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
ST
DS
TA
R
PO
ST
-PR
E
Fin
.Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al
Country Moving From 25th Percentile to Median ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
Figure 2
Figure 2 (continued)
Financial Development represents the sum of NUMC, CONCR, STDL2, MCAP and STDSTAR. Macroeconomic development isthe sum of INFL, FXV, XMGDP and CCR. Financial Liberalization is POST-PRE.
Country Moving From 25th Percentile to Median ADR, Country Fund, Official Liberalizations
Economic Impact on Beta
-0.020
0.020.040.060.080.1
0.120.14
Cha
nge
in b
eta
NU
MC
CO
NC
R
STD
L2
INF
L
FX
V
XM
GD
P
CC
R
MC
AP
ST
DS
TA
R
PO
ST
-PR
E
Fin
.Mrt
.Dev
el
Mac
ro D
evel
Lib
eral
izat
ion
Tot
al